United States presidential election, 1948
Encyclopedia
The United States presidential election of 1948 is considered by most historian
s as the greatest election upset
in American history
. Virtually every prediction (with or without public opinion polls) indicated that incumbent President
Harry S. Truman
would be defeated by Republican
Thomas E. Dewey. Truman won, overcoming a three-way split in his own party. Truman's surprise victory was the fifth consecutive win for the Democratic Party
in a presidential election. As a result of the 1948 congressional election, the Democrats would regain control of both houses of Congress. Thus, Truman's election confirmed the Democratic Party's status as the nation's majority party, a status it would retain until the conservative realignment in 1968.
, the most popular general of World War II
. Eisenhower's political views were unknown in 1948. He was, later events would prove, a moderate Republican, but in 1948 he flatly refused the nomination of any political party.
With Eisenhower refusing to run, the contest for the Republican nomination was between New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey, former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen
, Ohio Senator Robert Taft
, California Governor Earl Warren
, General Douglas MacArthur
and Arthur H. Vandenberg
of Michigan, the senior Republican in the Senate. Governor Dewey, who had been the Republican nominee in 1944, was regarded as the frontrunner when the primaries began. Dewey was the acknowledged leader of the GOP's powerful eastern establishment; in 1946 he had been re-elected Governor of New York by the largest margin in state history. Dewey's handicap was that many Republicans disliked him; he often struck observers as cold, stiff and calculating. Senator Taft was the leader of the GOP's conservative wing. He opened his campaign in 1947 by attacking the Democratic Party's domestic policy and foreign policy. In foreign policy, Taft was an isolationist
who blamed Truman for implementing the Morgenthau Plan
in occupied Germany, thereby wrecking the European economy which (in his view) thus required rescue from U.S. taxpayers in the form of the Marshall Plan
. In domestic issues, Taft and his fellow conservatives wanted to abolish many of the New Deal
social welfare programs that had been created in the 1930s; they regarded these programs as too expensive and harmful to business interests. Taft had two major weaknesses: he was seen as a plodding, dull campaigner, and he was viewed by most party leaders as being too conservative and controversial to win a presidential election. Taft's support was limited to his native Midwest and parts of the South. Although both Senator Vandenberg and Governor Warren were highly popular in their home states, both men refused to campaign in the primaries, which limited their chances of winning the nomination. However, their supporters hoped that in the event of a Dewey-Taft-Stassen deadlock, the convention would turn to their man as a compromise candidate. General MacArthur was serving in Japan as the Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers
occupying that nation; as such he was unable to campaign for the nomination. However, he did make it known that he would not decline the GOP nomination if it were offered to him, and some conservative Republicans hoped that by winning a primary contest he could prove his popularity with voters. They chose to enter his name in the Wisconsin primary.
The "surprise" candidate of 1948 was Stassen, the former "boy wonder" of Minnesota politics. Stassen had been elected governor of Minnesota at the age of 31; he resigned as governor in 1943 to serve in the United States Navy
in World War II. In 1945 he had served on the committee which created the United Nations
. Stassen was widely regarded as the most liberal of the Republican candidates, yet during the primaries he was criticized for being vague on many issues. Stassen stunned Dewey and MacArthur in the Wisconsin primary; Stassen's surprise victory virtually eliminated General MacArthur, whose supporters had made a major effort on his behalf. Stassen defeated Dewey again in the Nebraska primary, thus making him the new frontrunner. He then made the strategic mistake of trying to beat Senator Taft in Taft's home state of Ohio. Stassen believed that if he could defeat Taft in his home state, Taft would be forced to quit the race and most of Taft's delegates would support him instead of Dewey. However, Taft defeated Stassen in his native Ohio, and Stassen earned the hostility of the party's conservatives. Even so, Stassen was still leading Dewey in the polls for the upcoming Oregon primary. However, Dewey, who realized that a defeat in Oregon would end his chances at the nomination, sent his powerful political organization into the state and spent large sums of money on campaign ads in Oregon. Dewey also agreed to debate Stassen in Oregon on national radio - it was the first-ever radio debate between presidential candidates
. The sole issue of the debate concerned whether to outlaw the Communist Party of the United States
. Stassen, despite his liberal reputation, argued in favor of outlawing the party, while Dewey forcefully argued against it; at one point he famously stated that "you can't shoot an idea with a gun". Most observers rated Dewey as the winner of the debate, and a few days later Dewey defeated Stassen in Oregon. From this point forward, the New York governor had the momentum he needed to win his party's second nomination.
Primaries total popular vote results:
was held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. It was the first presidential convention to be shown on national television
. As the convention opened Dewey was believed to have a large lead in the delegate count. His major opponents – Taft, Stassen, and Senator Vandenberg – met in Taft's hotel suite to plan a "stop-Dewey" movement. However, a key obstacle soon developed when the three men refused to unite behind a single candidate to oppose Dewey. Instead, all three men simply agreed to try to hold their own delegates in the hopes of preventing Dewey from obtaining a majority. This proved to be futile, as Dewey's efficient campaign team methodically gathered the remaining delegates they needed to win the nomination. After the second round of balloting, Dewey was only 33 votes short of victory. Taft then called Stassen and urged him to withdraw from the race and endorse him as Dewey's main opponent. When Stassen refused, Taft wrote a concession speech and had it read at the start of the third ballot; Dewey was then nominated by acclamation
. Dewey then chose popular Governor Earl Warren
(and future Chief Justice
) of California
as his running mate. Following the convention, most political experts in the news media
rated the GOP ticket as an almost-certain winner over the Democrats.
On July 12, the Democratic National Convention
convened in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, in the same arena where the Republicans had met a few weeks earlier. Spirits were low: the Republicans had taken control of both houses of the United States Congress
and a majority of state governorships during the 1946 midterm elections by running against Truman, and the public-opinion polls showed Truman trailing Republican nominee Dewey, sometimes by double digits. Furthermore, some liberal Democrats had joined Henry A. Wallace
's new Progressive Party, and party leaders feared that Wallace would take enough votes from Truman to give the large Northern and Midwestern states to the Republicans.
As a result of Truman's low standing in the polls, several Democratic party bosses began working to "dump" Truman and nominate a more popular candidate. Among the leaders of this movement were Jacob Arvey
, the boss
of the Chicago
Democratic organization, Frank Hague
, the boss of New Jersey
, James Roosevelt
, the eldest son of former President Franklin D. Roosevelt
, and Senator Claude Pepper
of Florida
. The primary target of the rebels was General Dwight D. Eisenhower
; in 1947, Truman had offered to run as Eisenhower's running mate on the Democratic ticket if General Douglas MacArthur
won the Republican nomination. Despite their efforts, however, Eisenhower refused to become a candidate (in 1952, he revealed that he was a Republican
). Rebuffed, the leaders of the "dump" Truman movement then reluctantly agreed to support Truman for the nomination. At the Democratic Convention, a group of Northern liberals, led by Minneapolis Mayor Hubert Humphrey
, successfully pushed through a platform (over vigorous Southern opposition) that promoted civil rights
for blacks. In his speech promoting the civil rights platform, Humphrey memorably stated that "the time has come for the Democratic Party to get out of the shadow of states' rights and walk forthrightly into the bright sunshine of human rights!" Ironically, while Truman and his staff were ambivalent about supporting the civil rights plank, it did receive strong support from many of the big-city party bosses, most of whom felt that the civil rights platform would encourage the growing black population in their cities to vote for the Democrats. The passage of the civil rights platform caused some three dozen Southern delegates, led by South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond
, to walk out of the convention; the Southern delegates who remained nominated Senator Richard Russell, Jr.
of Georgia for the Democratic nomination as a rebuke to Truman. Nonetheless, 947 Democratic delegates voted for Truman as the Democratic nominee, while Russell received only 266 votes, all from the South. Truman then selected Kentucky Senator Alben W. Barkley
, who had delivered the convention's keynote address, as his running mate, with this nomination being made by acclamation.
Meanwhile, the Democratic party had fragmented. A new Progressive Party
— the name had been used earlier by Theodore Roosevelt
in 1912 and Robert M. La Follette
in 1924 — was created afresh in 1948 with the nomination of Henry A. Wallace
, who had served as Secretary of Agriculture
, Vice President of the United States
, and Secretary of Commerce
under Franklin D. Roosevelt
. In 1946 President Truman had fired Wallace as Secretary of Commerce when Wallace publicly opposed Truman's firm moves to counter the Soviet Union
in the Cold War
. Wallace's 1948 platform opposed the Cold War policies of President Truman, including the Marshall Plan
and Truman Doctrine
. The Progressives proposed stronger government regulation and control of Big Business
. They also campaigned to end discrimination against blacks and women, backed a minimum wage and called for the elimination of the House Un-American Activities Committee
, which was investigating the issue of communist
spies within the U.S. government and labor unions
. Wallace and his supporters believed that the committee was violating the civil liberties
of government workers and labor unions. However, the Progressives also generated a great deal of controversy, due to the widespread belief that they were secretly controlled by Communists who were more loyal to the Soviet Union
than the United States. Wallace himself denied being a Communist, but he repeatedly refused to disavow their support, and at one point was quoted as saying that the "Communists are the closest thing to the early Christian martyrs." Wallace was also hurt when Westbrook Pegler
, a prominent conservative newspaper columnist, revealed that Wallace as Vice President had written coded letters discussing prominent politicians such as Franklin Roosevelt and Winston Churchill
to his Russian New Age
spiritual guru
, Nicholas Roerich
. This revelation - and quotes from the letters were published - led to much ridicule of Wallace in the national press.
The Progressive Party Convention, which was held in Philadelphia, was a highly contentious affair; several famous newspaper journalists, such as H. L. Mencken
and Dorothy Thompson
, publicly accused the Progressives of being covertly controlled by Communists. Several leading figures of the Progressive Party (such as socialist
leader Norman Thomas
) quit the party in protest over what they perceived as the undue influence Communists exerted over Wallace. Thomas ran as the Socialist Party presidential candidate to offer an alternative to Wallace.
Senator Glen H. Taylor
of Idaho
, an eccentric figure who was known as a "singing cowboy" and who had ridden his horse "Nugget" up the steps of the United States Capitol
after winning election to the Senate in 1944, was named as Wallace's running mate.
in Birmingham, Alabama
and formed yet another political party, which they named the "States' Rights" Democratic Party
. More commonly known as the “Dixiecrats”, the party's main goal was continuing the policy of racial segregation
in the South and the Jim Crow laws
that sustained it. South Carolina
Governor Strom Thurmond
, who had led the walkout, became the party's presidential nominee. Mississippi
Governor Fielding L. Wright
received the vice presidential nomination. The Dixiecrats had no chance of winning the election themselves, since they were not on the ballot in enough states. Their strategy was to take enough Southern states from Truman to force the election into the United States House of Representatives
, where they could then extract concessions from either Truman or Dewey on racial issues in exchange for their support. Even if Dewey won the election outright, the Dixiecrats hoped that their defection would show that the Democratic Party needed Southern support in order to win national elections, and that this fact would weaken the pro-civil rights movement among Northern and Western Democrats. However, the Dixiecrats were weakened when most Southern Democratic leaders (such as Governor Herman Talmadge
of Georgia
and "Boss" E. H. Crump
of Tennessee
) refused to support the party. Despite being an incumbent President, Truman was not placed on the ballot in Alabama
. In the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina, the party was able to be labeled as the main Democratic Party ticket on the local ballots on election night Outside of these four states, however, it was only listed as a third-party ticket.
Given Truman's sinking popularity and the seemingly fatal three-way split in the Democratic Party, Dewey appeared unbeatable. Top Republicans believed that all their candidate had to do to win was to avoid major mistakes; in keeping with this advice, Dewey carefully avoided risks. He spoke in platitudes, avoided controversial issues, and was vague on what he planned to do as President. Speech after speech was filled with non-political, optimistic assertions of the obvious, including the now infamous quote “You know that your future is still ahead of you.” An editorial in The (Louisville) Courier-Journal
summed it up as such: “No presidential candidate in the future will be so inept that four of his major speeches can be boiled down to these historic four sentences: Agriculture is important. Our rivers are full of fish. You cannot have freedom without liberty. Our future lies ahead.” Truman, trailing in the polls, decided to adopt a slashing, no-holds-barred campaign. He ridiculed Dewey by name, criticized Dewey's refusal to address specific issues, and scornfully targeted the Republican-controlled 80th Congress with a wave of relentless, and blistering, partisan assaults. He nicknamed the Republican-controlled Congress as the "do-nothing" Congress, a remark which brought strong criticism from GOP Congressional leaders (such as Senator Taft), but no comment from Dewey. In fact, Dewey rarely mentioned Truman's name during the campaign, which fit into his strategy of appearing to be above petty partisan politics.
Under Dewey's leadership, the Republicans had enacted a platform at their 1948 convention
that called for expanding social security
, more funding for public housing, civil rights
legislation, and promotion of health and education by the federal government. These positions were, however, unacceptable to the conservative Congressional Republican leadership. Truman exploited this rift in the opposing party by calling a special session of Congress
on “Turnip Day” (referring to an old piece of Missouri folklore about planting turnips in late July) and daring the Republican Congressional leadership to pass its own platform. The 80th Congress
played into Truman's hands, delivering very little in the way of substantive legislation during this time. The GOP's lack of action in the "turnip" session of Congress allowed Truman to continue his attacks on the "do-nothing" Republican-controlled Congress. Truman simply ignored the fact that Dewey's policies were considerably more liberal than most of his fellow Republicans, and instead he concentrated his fire against what he characterized as the conservative, obstructionist tendencies of the unpopular 80th Congress.
Truman toured—and transfixed — much of the nation with his fiery rhetoric, playing to large, enthusiastic crowds. “Give 'em hell, Harry,” was a popular slogan shouted out at stop after stop along the tour. However, the polls and the pundits all held that Dewey's lead was insurmountable, and that Truman's efforts were for naught. Indeed, Truman's own staff considered the campaign a last hurrah. The only person who appears to have considered Truman's campaign to be winnable was the President himself, who confidently predicted victory to anyone and everyone who would listen to him. However, even Truman's own wife had private doubts that her husband could win.
In the final weeks of the campaign, American movie theatres agreed to play two short newsreel-like campaign films in support of the two major-party candidates; each film had been created by its respective campaign organization. The Dewey film, shot professionally on an impressive budget, featured very high production values, but somehow reinforced an image of the New York governor as cautious and distant. The Truman film, hastily assembled on virtually no budget by the perpetually cash-short Truman campaign, relied heavily on public-domain and newsreel footage of the President taking part in major world events and signing important legislation. Perhaps unintentionally, the Truman film visually reinforced an image of the President as engaged and decisive. Years later, historian David McCullough
cited the expensive, but lackluster, Dewey film, and the far cheaper, but more effective, Truman film, as important factors in determining the preferences of undecided voters.
In the campaign's final days many newspapers, magazines, and political pundits were so confident of Dewey's impending victory they wrote articles to be printed the morning after the election speculating about the new "Dewey Presidency". Life
magazine printed a large photo in its final edition before the election; entitled "Our Next President Rides by Ferryboat over San Francisco Bay", the photo showed Dewey and his staff riding across the city's harbor. Several well-known and influential newspaper columnists, such as Drew Pearson
and Joseph Alsop
, wrote columns to be printed the morning after the election speculating about Dewey's possible choices for his cabinet. Alistair Cooke
, the distinguished writer for the Manchester Guardian
newspaper in England, published an article on the day of the election entitled "Harry S. Truman: A Study of a Failure." As Truman made his way to his hometown of Independence, Missouri
to await the election returns, not a single reporter traveling on his campaign train thought that he would win.
On election night — November 2 — Dewey, his family, and campaign staff confidently gathered in the Roosevelt Hotel in New York City
to await the returns. Truman, aided by the Secret Service
, sneaked away from reporters covering him in Kansas City, Missouri
and made his way to nearby Excelsior Springs, Missouri
, a small resort town. There he took a room in the Elms Hotel, had dinner and a Turkish bath, and went to sleep. As the returns came in Truman took an early lead which he never lost. However, the leading radio commentators, such as H. V. Kaltenborn of NBC
, confidently predicted that once the "late returns" came in Dewey would overcome Truman's lead and win. At midnight, Truman awoke and turned on the radio in his room; he heard Kaltenborn announce that, while Truman was still ahead in the popular vote, he couldn't possibly win. Around 4 a.m. Truman awoke again, heard on the radio that his lead was nearly two million votes, and decided to ride back to Kansas City. For the rest of his life, Truman would gleefully mimic Kaltenborn's voice predicting his defeat throughout that election night. Dewey, meanwhile, realized that he was in trouble when early returns from New York and New England
showed him running well behind his expected vote total. He was also troubled when the early returns showed that Henry A. Wallace
and Strom Thurmond
, the two third-party candidates, were not taking as many votes from Truman as had been predicted. Dewey stayed up throughout the night examining the votes as they came in. By 10:30 the next morning he was convinced that he had lost; he then sent a gracious telegram of concession to Truman.
The Chicago Daily Tribune
, a pro-Republican newspaper, was so sure of Dewey's victory it printed “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN
” on election night as its headline for the following day. A famous photograph taken the next morning showed Truman grinning and holding up a copy of the newspaper. Part of the reason Truman's victory came as such a shock was because of as-yet uncorrected flaws in the emerging craft of public opinion polling. A political theory supported by many pollsters (and largely discredited by the 1948 election) held that voters had already decided who they would support by the time the political conventions ended during the summer, and that few voters were swayed by the campaigning done during the autumn. As a result many pollsters were so confident of Dewey's victory that they simply stopped polling voters weeks before the election, and thus missed a last-minute surge of support for the Democrats. It has been estimated that some 14% of Dewey's supporters — swayed by Truman's claims that an economic depression could return under GOP rule — switched to Truman in the final days before the election. After 1948, pollsters would survey voters until the day before the election: they would also announce their results on television, more or less in real time.
The key states in the 1948 election were Ohio
, California
, and Illinois
. Truman narrowly won all three states by a margin of less than 1%. These three states had a combined total of 78 electoral votes. Had Dewey carried all three states by the same narrow margins, he would have won the election in the electoral college
while still losing the popular vote. Had Dewey won any two of the three states the Dixiecrats would have succeeded in their goal of forcing the election into the House. The extreme closeness of the vote in these three states was the major reason why Dewey waited until late on the morning of November 3 to concede. A similarly narrow margin garnered Idaho
and Nevada
's electoral votes for Truman. Dewey countered by narrowly carrying New York
and Pennsylvania
, the states with the most electoral votes at the time, as well as Michigan
, but it wasn't enough to give him the election. Dewey would always believe that he lost the election because he lost the rural vote in the Midwest, which he had won in the 1944 presidential election; given the effect the dramatic drop in farm commodity prices in the fall of 1948, a year of record farm harvests, may have had on the political mindset of the rural vote that November, Dewey may well have been right.
Truman's victory can be attributed to many factors: his aggressive, populist campaign style; Dewey's complacent, distant approach to the campaign, and his failure to respond to Truman's attacks; the major shift in public opinion from Dewey to Truman during the late stages of the campaign; broad public approval of Truman's foreign policy, notably the Berlin Airlift of that year; and widespread dissatisfaction with the institution Truman labeled as the "do-nothing, good-for-nothing 80th Republican Congress." In addition, after suffering a relatively severe recession in 1946 and 1947 (in which real GDP dropped by 12% and inflation went over 15%), the economy began recovering throughout 1948, thus possibly motivating many voters to give Truman credit for the economic recovery. 1948 was essentially a Democratic year, as the Democrats not only retained the presidency but recaptured both houses of Congress as well. Furthermore, the two third parties did not hurt Truman nearly as much as expected. Thurmond's Dixiecrats carried only four Southern states, a lower total than predicted. The civil rights platform helped Truman win large majorities among black voters in the populous Northern and Midwestern states, and may well have made the difference for Truman in states such as Illinois and Ohio. Wallace's Progressives received only 2.4% of the national popular vote - well below their expected vote total - and Wallace did not take as many liberal votes from Truman as many political pundits had predicted.
The 1948 election marked only the third time in American presidential election history that the winning candidate won despite losing Pennsylvania and New York (the first two times being the 1868 election
and the 1916 election
- later such elections included 1968
, 2000
, and 2004
). This was also the last time a Democratic candidate won Arizona
except for one case: Bill Clinton
pulled out a two-point win in 1996
. It contrasted with elections from across the world, as Truman was a war leader who managed to win re-election. As of 2008, Truman is the most unpopular leader to win re-election, though his standing with all Americans increased so much in the ensuing decades that he is now remembered by many historians as one of the greatest presidents of the 20th century.
Source (Popular Vote): Source (Electoral Vote):
(a) In New York
, the Truman vote was a fusion of the Democratic and Liberal slates. There, Truman obtained 2,557,642 votes on the Democratic ticket and 222,562 votes on the Liberal ticket.
(b) In Mississippi
, the Dewey vote was a fusion of the Republican and Independent Republican slates. There, Dewey obtained 2595 votes on the Republican ticket and 2448 votes on the Independent Republican ticket.
Historian
A historian is a person who studies and writes about the past and is regarded as an authority on it. Historians are concerned with the continuous, methodical narrative and research of past events as relating to the human race; as well as the study of all history in time. If the individual is...
s as the greatest election upset
Upset
An upset occurs in a competition, frequently in electoral politics or sports, when the party popularly expected to win , is defeated by an underdog whom the majority expects to lose, defying the conventional wisdom...
in American history
History of the United States
The history of the United States traditionally starts with the Declaration of Independence in the year 1776, although its territory was inhabited by Native Americans since prehistoric times and then by European colonists who followed the voyages of Christopher Columbus starting in 1492. The...
. Virtually every prediction (with or without public opinion polls) indicated that incumbent President
President of the United States
The President of the United States of America is the head of state and head of government of the United States. The president leads the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces....
Harry S. Truman
Harry S. Truman
Harry S. Truman was the 33rd President of the United States . As President Franklin D. Roosevelt's third vice president and the 34th Vice President of the United States , he succeeded to the presidency on April 12, 1945, when President Roosevelt died less than three months after beginning his...
would be defeated by Republican
Republican Party (United States)
The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Democratic Party. Founded by anti-slavery expansion activists in 1854, it is often called the GOP . The party's platform generally reflects American conservatism in the U.S...
Thomas E. Dewey. Truman won, overcoming a three-way split in his own party. Truman's surprise victory was the fifth consecutive win for the Democratic Party
Democratic Party (United States)
The Democratic Party is one of two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Republican Party. The party's socially liberal and progressive platform is largely considered center-left in the U.S. political spectrum. The party has the lengthiest record of continuous...
in a presidential election. As a result of the 1948 congressional election, the Democrats would regain control of both houses of Congress. Thus, Truman's election confirmed the Democratic Party's status as the nation's majority party, a status it would retain until the conservative realignment in 1968.
Republican Party nomination
Both major parties courted General Dwight D. EisenhowerDwight D. Eisenhower
Dwight David "Ike" Eisenhower was the 34th President of the United States, from 1953 until 1961. He was a five-star general in the United States Army...
, the most popular general of World War II
World War II
World War II, or the Second World War , was a global conflict lasting from 1939 to 1945, involving most of the world's nations—including all of the great powers—eventually forming two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis...
. Eisenhower's political views were unknown in 1948. He was, later events would prove, a moderate Republican, but in 1948 he flatly refused the nomination of any political party.
With Eisenhower refusing to run, the contest for the Republican nomination was between New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey, former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen
Harold Stassen
Harold Edward Stassen was the 25th Governor of Minnesota from 1939 to 1943. After service in World War II, from 1948 to 1953 he was president of the University of Pennsylvania...
, Ohio Senator Robert Taft
Robert Taft
Robert Alphonso Taft , of the Taft political family of Cincinnati, was a Republican United States Senator and a prominent conservative statesman...
, California Governor Earl Warren
Earl Warren
Earl Warren was the 14th Chief Justice of the United States.He is known for the sweeping decisions of the Warren Court, which ended school segregation and transformed many areas of American law, especially regarding the rights of the accused, ending public-school-sponsored prayer, and requiring...
, General Douglas MacArthur
Douglas MacArthur
General of the Army Douglas MacArthur was an American general and field marshal of the Philippine Army. He was a Chief of Staff of the United States Army during the 1930s and played a prominent role in the Pacific theater during World War II. He received the Medal of Honor for his service in the...
and Arthur H. Vandenberg
Arthur H. Vandenberg
Arthur Hendrick Vandenberg was a Republican Senator from the U.S. state of Michigan who participated in the creation of the United Nations.-Early life and family:...
of Michigan, the senior Republican in the Senate. Governor Dewey, who had been the Republican nominee in 1944, was regarded as the frontrunner when the primaries began. Dewey was the acknowledged leader of the GOP's powerful eastern establishment; in 1946 he had been re-elected Governor of New York by the largest margin in state history. Dewey's handicap was that many Republicans disliked him; he often struck observers as cold, stiff and calculating. Senator Taft was the leader of the GOP's conservative wing. He opened his campaign in 1947 by attacking the Democratic Party's domestic policy and foreign policy. In foreign policy, Taft was an isolationist
Isolationism
Isolationism is the policy or doctrine of isolating one's country from the affairs of other nations by declining to enter into alliances, foreign economic commitments, international agreements, etc., seeking to devote the entire efforts of one's country to its own advancement and remain at peace by...
who blamed Truman for implementing the Morgenthau Plan
Morgenthau Plan
The Morgenthau Plan, proposed by United States Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau, Jr., advocated that the Allied occupation of Germany following World War II include measures to eliminate Germany's ability to wage war.-Overview:...
in occupied Germany, thereby wrecking the European economy which (in his view) thus required rescue from U.S. taxpayers in the form of the Marshall Plan
Marshall Plan
The Marshall Plan was the large-scale American program to aid Europe where the United States gave monetary support to help rebuild European economies after the end of World War II in order to combat the spread of Soviet communism. The plan was in operation for four years beginning in April 1948...
. In domestic issues, Taft and his fellow conservatives wanted to abolish many of the New Deal
New Deal
The New Deal was a series of economic programs implemented in the United States between 1933 and 1936. They were passed by the U.S. Congress during the first term of President Franklin D. Roosevelt. The programs were Roosevelt's responses to the Great Depression, and focused on what historians call...
social welfare programs that had been created in the 1930s; they regarded these programs as too expensive and harmful to business interests. Taft had two major weaknesses: he was seen as a plodding, dull campaigner, and he was viewed by most party leaders as being too conservative and controversial to win a presidential election. Taft's support was limited to his native Midwest and parts of the South. Although both Senator Vandenberg and Governor Warren were highly popular in their home states, both men refused to campaign in the primaries, which limited their chances of winning the nomination. However, their supporters hoped that in the event of a Dewey-Taft-Stassen deadlock, the convention would turn to their man as a compromise candidate. General MacArthur was serving in Japan as the Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers
Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers
Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers was the title held by General Douglas MacArthur during the Occupation of Japan following World War II...
occupying that nation; as such he was unable to campaign for the nomination. However, he did make it known that he would not decline the GOP nomination if it were offered to him, and some conservative Republicans hoped that by winning a primary contest he could prove his popularity with voters. They chose to enter his name in the Wisconsin primary.
The "surprise" candidate of 1948 was Stassen, the former "boy wonder" of Minnesota politics. Stassen had been elected governor of Minnesota at the age of 31; he resigned as governor in 1943 to serve in the United States Navy
United States Navy
The United States Navy is the naval warfare service branch of the United States Armed Forces and one of the seven uniformed services of the United States. The U.S. Navy is the largest in the world; its battle fleet tonnage is greater than that of the next 13 largest navies combined. The U.S...
in World War II. In 1945 he had served on the committee which created the United Nations
United Nations
The United Nations is an international organization whose stated aims are facilitating cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights, and achievement of world peace...
. Stassen was widely regarded as the most liberal of the Republican candidates, yet during the primaries he was criticized for being vague on many issues. Stassen stunned Dewey and MacArthur in the Wisconsin primary; Stassen's surprise victory virtually eliminated General MacArthur, whose supporters had made a major effort on his behalf. Stassen defeated Dewey again in the Nebraska primary, thus making him the new frontrunner. He then made the strategic mistake of trying to beat Senator Taft in Taft's home state of Ohio. Stassen believed that if he could defeat Taft in his home state, Taft would be forced to quit the race and most of Taft's delegates would support him instead of Dewey. However, Taft defeated Stassen in his native Ohio, and Stassen earned the hostility of the party's conservatives. Even so, Stassen was still leading Dewey in the polls for the upcoming Oregon primary. However, Dewey, who realized that a defeat in Oregon would end his chances at the nomination, sent his powerful political organization into the state and spent large sums of money on campaign ads in Oregon. Dewey also agreed to debate Stassen in Oregon on national radio - it was the first-ever radio debate between presidential candidates
Dewey–Stassen debate
The debate between Governor of New York Thomas E. Dewey and former Governor of Minnesota Harold Stassen, held the night before the 1948 Oregon Republican Presidential primary, was the first recorded modern presidential debate to ever take place in the United States...
. The sole issue of the debate concerned whether to outlaw the Communist Party of the United States
Communist Party USA
The Communist Party USA is a Marxist political party in the United States, established in 1919. It has a long, complex history that is closely related to the histories of similar communist parties worldwide and the U.S. labor movement....
. Stassen, despite his liberal reputation, argued in favor of outlawing the party, while Dewey forcefully argued against it; at one point he famously stated that "you can't shoot an idea with a gun". Most observers rated Dewey as the winner of the debate, and a few days later Dewey defeated Stassen in Oregon. From this point forward, the New York governor had the momentum he needed to win his party's second nomination.
Primaries total popular vote results:
- Earl WarrenEarl WarrenEarl Warren was the 14th Chief Justice of the United States.He is known for the sweeping decisions of the Warren Court, which ended school segregation and transformed many areas of American law, especially regarding the rights of the accused, ending public-school-sponsored prayer, and requiring...
- 771,295 (26.99%) - Harold StassenHarold StassenHarold Edward Stassen was the 25th Governor of Minnesota from 1939 to 1943. After service in World War II, from 1948 to 1953 he was president of the University of Pennsylvania...
- 627,321 (21.96%) - Robert TaftRobert TaftRobert Alphonso Taft , of the Taft political family of Cincinnati, was a Republican United States Senator and a prominent conservative statesman...
- 464,741 (16.27%) - Thomas E. Dewey - 330,799 (11.58%)
- Riley A. BenderRiley A. BenderRiley Alvin Bender was a United States businessman and political candidate.Born in Chicago, Illinois to Edward Bender and Josephine David Bender, he was a lifelong resident of his native city. Bender was an entrepreuer in the areas of hotel and music store management...
- 324,029 (11.34%) - Douglas MacArthurDouglas MacArthurGeneral of the Army Douglas MacArthur was an American general and field marshal of the Philippine Army. He was a Chief of Staff of the United States Army during the 1930s and played a prominent role in the Pacific theater during World War II. He received the Medal of Honor for his service in the...
- 87,839 (3.07%) - Leverett SaltonstallLeverett SaltonstallLeverett A. Saltonstall was an American Republican politician who served as the 55th Governor of Massachusetts and as a United States Senator .-Biography:...
- 72,191 (2.53%) - Herbert E. HitchcockHerbert E. HitchcockHerbert Emery Hitchcock was a United States Senator from South Dakota.Born in Maquoketa, Iowa, he attended public schools in Iowa and San Jose, California, a business college at Davenport, Iowa, Iowa State College at Ames, and the University of Chicago Law School.He moved to Mitchell, South Dakota...
- 45,463 (1.59%) - Edward Martin - 45,072 (1.58%)
- Unpledged delegates - 28,854 (1.01%)
- Arthur H. VandenbergArthur H. VandenbergArthur Hendrick Vandenberg was a Republican Senator from the U.S. state of Michigan who participated in the creation of the United Nations.-Early life and family:...
- 18,924 (0.66%) - Dwight D. EisenhowerDwight D. EisenhowerDwight David "Ike" Eisenhower was the 34th President of the United States, from 1953 until 1961. He was a five-star general in the United States Army...
- 5,014 (0.18%) - Harry S. TrumanHarry S. TrumanHarry S. Truman was the 33rd President of the United States . As President Franklin D. Roosevelt's third vice president and the 34th Vice President of the United States , he succeeded to the presidency on April 12, 1945, when President Roosevelt died less than three months after beginning his...
- 4,907 (0.17%) - Henry A. WallaceHenry A. WallaceHenry Agard Wallace was the 33rd Vice President of the United States , the Secretary of Agriculture , and the Secretary of Commerce . In the 1948 presidential election, Wallace was the nominee of the Progressive Party.-Early life:Henry A...
- 1,452 (0.05%) - Joseph William Martin, Jr.Joseph William Martin, Jr.Joseph William Martin, Jr. was a Republican Congressman and Speaker of the House from North Attleborough, Massachusetts. He was notably the only Republican to serve as Speaker between 1931 and 1995....
- 974 (0.03%)
Republican Convention
The 1948 Republican National Convention1948 Republican National Convention
The 1948 Republican National Convention was held at the Municipal Auditorium, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from June 21 to 25, 1948.New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey had paved the way to win the Republican presidential nomination in the primary elections, where he had beaten Minnesota Governor...
was held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. It was the first presidential convention to be shown on national television
Television
Television is a telecommunication medium for transmitting and receiving moving images that can be monochrome or colored, with accompanying sound...
. As the convention opened Dewey was believed to have a large lead in the delegate count. His major opponents – Taft, Stassen, and Senator Vandenberg – met in Taft's hotel suite to plan a "stop-Dewey" movement. However, a key obstacle soon developed when the three men refused to unite behind a single candidate to oppose Dewey. Instead, all three men simply agreed to try to hold their own delegates in the hopes of preventing Dewey from obtaining a majority. This proved to be futile, as Dewey's efficient campaign team methodically gathered the remaining delegates they needed to win the nomination. After the second round of balloting, Dewey was only 33 votes short of victory. Taft then called Stassen and urged him to withdraw from the race and endorse him as Dewey's main opponent. When Stassen refused, Taft wrote a concession speech and had it read at the start of the third ballot; Dewey was then nominated by acclamation
Acclamation
An acclamation, in its most common sense, is a form of election that does not use a ballot. "Acclamation" or "acclamatio" can also signify a kind of ritual greeting and expression of approval in certain social contexts in ancient Rome.-Voting:...
. Dewey then chose popular Governor Earl Warren
Earl Warren
Earl Warren was the 14th Chief Justice of the United States.He is known for the sweeping decisions of the Warren Court, which ended school segregation and transformed many areas of American law, especially regarding the rights of the accused, ending public-school-sponsored prayer, and requiring...
(and future Chief Justice
Chief Justice
The Chief Justice in many countries is the name for the presiding member of a Supreme Court in Commonwealth or other countries with an Anglo-Saxon justice system based on English common law, such as the Supreme Court of Canada, the Constitutional Court of South Africa, the Court of Final Appeal of...
) of California
California
California is a state located on the West Coast of the United States. It is by far the most populous U.S. state, and the third-largest by land area...
as his running mate. Following the convention, most political experts in the news media
News media
The news media are those elements of the mass media that focus on delivering news to the general public or a target public.These include print media , broadcast news , and more recently the Internet .-Etymology:A medium is a carrier of something...
rated the GOP ticket as an almost-certain winner over the Democrats.
| Ballot | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas E. Dewey | 434 | 515 | 1094 |
| Robert Taft Robert Taft Robert Alphonso Taft , of the Taft political family of Cincinnati, was a Republican United States Senator and a prominent conservative statesman... |
224 | 274 | 0 |
| Harold Stassen Harold Stassen Harold Edward Stassen was the 25th Governor of Minnesota from 1939 to 1943. After service in World War II, from 1948 to 1953 he was president of the University of Pennsylvania... |
157 | 149 | 0 |
| Arthur H. Vandenberg Arthur H. Vandenberg Arthur Hendrick Vandenberg was a Republican Senator from the U.S. state of Michigan who participated in the creation of the United Nations.-Early life and family:... |
62 | 62 | 0 |
| Earl Warren Earl Warren Earl Warren was the 14th Chief Justice of the United States.He is known for the sweeping decisions of the Warren Court, which ended school segregation and transformed many areas of American law, especially regarding the rights of the accused, ending public-school-sponsored prayer, and requiring... |
59 | 57 | 0 |
| Dwight H. Green Dwight H. Green Dwight Herbert Green was the 30th Governor of the US state of Illinois, serving from 1941 to 1949.- From childhood to early adulthood :... |
56 | 0 | 0 |
| Alfred E. Driscoll Alfred E. Driscoll Alfred Eastlack Driscoll was an American Republican Party politician, who served in the New Jersey Senate representing Camden County, who served as the 43rd Governor of New Jersey, and as president of Warner-Lambert .-Biography:He was born on October 25, 1902 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania... |
35 | 0 | 0 |
| Raymond E. Baldwin Raymond E. Baldwin Raymond Earl Baldwin was a United States Senator, the 72nd and 74th Governor of Connecticut.-Biography:Born in Rye, New York, he moved to Middletown, Connecticut in 1903 and attended the public schools. He graduated from Wesleyan University in Middletown in 1916, and entered Yale University... |
19 | 19 | 0 |
| Joseph William Martin, Jr. Joseph William Martin, Jr. Joseph William Martin, Jr. was a Republican Congressman and Speaker of the House from North Attleborough, Massachusetts. He was notably the only Republican to serve as Speaker between 1931 and 1995.... |
18 | 10 | 0 |
| B. Carroll Reece B. Carroll Reece Brazilla Carroll Reece was a U.S. Representative from Tennessee.-Early life and career:Reece was born on a farm near Butler, Tennessee, one of thirteen children of John Isaac and Sarah Maples Reece... |
15 | 0 | 0 |
| Douglas MacArthur Douglas MacArthur General of the Army Douglas MacArthur was an American general and field marshal of the Philippine Army. He was a Chief of Staff of the United States Army during the 1930s and played a prominent role in the Pacific theater during World War II. He received the Medal of Honor for his service in the... |
11 | 8 | 0 |
| Everett Dirksen Everett Dirksen Everett McKinley Dirksen was an American politician of the Republican Party. He represented Illinois in the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate... |
1 | 0 | 0 |
| Abstaining | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Democratic Party nomination
Democratic candidates:On July 12, the Democratic National Convention
1948 Democratic National Convention
The 1948 Democratic National Convention was held at Convention Hall in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from July 12 to July 14, and resulted in the nominations of incumbent Harry S Truman for President and U.S. Senator Alben W...
convened in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, in the same arena where the Republicans had met a few weeks earlier. Spirits were low: the Republicans had taken control of both houses of the United States Congress
United States Congress
The United States Congress is the bicameral legislature of the federal government of the United States, consisting of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Congress meets in the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C....
and a majority of state governorships during the 1946 midterm elections by running against Truman, and the public-opinion polls showed Truman trailing Republican nominee Dewey, sometimes by double digits. Furthermore, some liberal Democrats had joined Henry A. Wallace
Henry A. Wallace
Henry Agard Wallace was the 33rd Vice President of the United States , the Secretary of Agriculture , and the Secretary of Commerce . In the 1948 presidential election, Wallace was the nominee of the Progressive Party.-Early life:Henry A...
's new Progressive Party, and party leaders feared that Wallace would take enough votes from Truman to give the large Northern and Midwestern states to the Republicans.
As a result of Truman's low standing in the polls, several Democratic party bosses began working to "dump" Truman and nominate a more popular candidate. Among the leaders of this movement were Jacob Arvey
Jacob Arvey
Jacob M. Arvey was aninfluential Chicago political leader from the Depression era until the mid-1950s. He may be best-known for his efforts to end corruption in the Chicago Democratic organization, and for promoting the candidacies of liberal Democratic politicians such as Adlai Stevenson and...
, the boss
Bossism
Bossism, in the history of the United States , is a system of political control centering about a single powerful figure and a complex organization of lesser figures bound together by reciprocity in promoting financial and social self-interest...
of the Chicago
Chicago
Chicago is the largest city in the US state of Illinois. With nearly 2.7 million residents, it is the most populous city in the Midwestern United States and the third most populous in the US, after New York City and Los Angeles...
Democratic organization, Frank Hague
Frank Hague
Frank Hague was an American Democratic Party politician who served as the mayor of Jersey City, New Jersey from 1917 to 1947, Democratic National Committeeman from New Jersey from 1922 until 1949, and Vice-Chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 1924 until 1949.Hague has a widely-known...
, the boss of New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey is a state in the Northeastern and Middle Atlantic regions of the United States. , its population was 8,791,894. It is bordered on the north and east by the state of New York, on the southeast and south by the Atlantic Ocean, on the west by Pennsylvania and on the southwest by Delaware...
, James Roosevelt
James Roosevelt
James Roosevelt was the oldest son of U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt. He was a United States Congressman, an officer in the United States Marine Corps, an aide to his father, the official Secretary to the President, a Democratic Party activist, and a businessman.-Early life:Roosevelt was...
, the eldest son of former President Franklin D. Roosevelt
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt , also known by his initials, FDR, was the 32nd President of the United States and a central figure in world events during the mid-20th century, leading the United States during a time of worldwide economic crisis and world war...
, and Senator Claude Pepper
Claude Pepper
Claude Denson Pepper was an American politician of the Democratic Party, and a spokesman for left-liberalism and the elderly. In foreign policy he shifted from pro-Soviet in the 1940s to anti-Communist in the 1950s...
of Florida
Florida
Florida is a state in the southeastern United States, located on the nation's Atlantic and Gulf coasts. It is bordered to the west by the Gulf of Mexico, to the north by Alabama and Georgia and to the east by the Atlantic Ocean. With a population of 18,801,310 as measured by the 2010 census, it...
. The primary target of the rebels was General Dwight D. Eisenhower
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Dwight David "Ike" Eisenhower was the 34th President of the United States, from 1953 until 1961. He was a five-star general in the United States Army...
; in 1947, Truman had offered to run as Eisenhower's running mate on the Democratic ticket if General Douglas MacArthur
Douglas MacArthur
General of the Army Douglas MacArthur was an American general and field marshal of the Philippine Army. He was a Chief of Staff of the United States Army during the 1930s and played a prominent role in the Pacific theater during World War II. He received the Medal of Honor for his service in the...
won the Republican nomination. Despite their efforts, however, Eisenhower refused to become a candidate (in 1952, he revealed that he was a Republican
Draft Eisenhower
The Draft Eisenhower movement was the first successful political draft of the 20th century to take a private citizen to the Oval Office. It was a widespread American grassroots political movement that eventually persuaded Dwight D. Eisenhower to run for President...
). Rebuffed, the leaders of the "dump" Truman movement then reluctantly agreed to support Truman for the nomination. At the Democratic Convention, a group of Northern liberals, led by Minneapolis Mayor Hubert Humphrey
Hubert Humphrey
Hubert Horatio Humphrey, Jr. , served under President Lyndon B. Johnson as the 38th Vice President of the United States. Humphrey twice served as a United States Senator from Minnesota, and served as Democratic Majority Whip. He was a founder of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and...
, successfully pushed through a platform (over vigorous Southern opposition) that promoted civil rights
Civil rights
Civil and political rights are a class of rights that protect individuals' freedom from unwarranted infringement by governments and private organizations, and ensure one's ability to participate in the civil and political life of the state without discrimination or repression.Civil rights include...
for blacks. In his speech promoting the civil rights platform, Humphrey memorably stated that "the time has come for the Democratic Party to get out of the shadow of states' rights and walk forthrightly into the bright sunshine of human rights!" Ironically, while Truman and his staff were ambivalent about supporting the civil rights plank, it did receive strong support from many of the big-city party bosses, most of whom felt that the civil rights platform would encourage the growing black population in their cities to vote for the Democrats. The passage of the civil rights platform caused some three dozen Southern delegates, led by South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond
Strom Thurmond
James Strom Thurmond was an American politician who served as a United States Senator. He also ran for the Presidency of the United States in 1948 as the segregationist States Rights Democratic Party candidate, receiving 2.4% of the popular vote and 39 electoral votes...
, to walk out of the convention; the Southern delegates who remained nominated Senator Richard Russell, Jr.
Richard Russell, Jr.
Richard Brevard Russell, Jr. was a Democratic Party politician from the southeastern state of Georgia. He served as state governor from 1931 to 1933 and United States senator from 1933 to 1971....
of Georgia for the Democratic nomination as a rebuke to Truman. Nonetheless, 947 Democratic delegates voted for Truman as the Democratic nominee, while Russell received only 266 votes, all from the South. Truman then selected Kentucky Senator Alben W. Barkley
Alben W. Barkley
Alben William Barkley was an American politician in the Democratic Party who served as the 35th Vice President of the United States , under President Harry S. Truman....
, who had delivered the convention's keynote address, as his running mate, with this nomination being made by acclamation.
| Presidential Ballot | Vice Presidential Ballot | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry S. Truman Harry S. Truman Harry S. Truman was the 33rd President of the United States . As President Franklin D. Roosevelt's third vice president and the 34th Vice President of the United States , he succeeded to the presidency on April 12, 1945, when President Roosevelt died less than three months after beginning his... | 947.5 | Alben W. Barkley Alben W. Barkley Alben William Barkley was an American politician in the Democratic Party who served as the 35th Vice President of the United States , under President Harry S. Truman.... | 1,234 |
| Richard Russell, Jr. Richard Russell, Jr. Richard Brevard Russell, Jr. was a Democratic Party politician from the southeastern state of Georgia. He served as state governor from 1931 to 1933 and United States senator from 1933 to 1971.... | 266 | ||
| James A. Roe James A. Roe James A. Roe was a Democratic member of the United States House of Representatives from New York.Roe was born in Flushing, Queens. He graduated from Cornell University in 1917 and served in the United States Army Air Corps during World War I... | 15 | ||
| Paul V. McNutt Paul V. McNutt Paul Vories McNutt was an American politician who served as the 34th Governor of Indiana during the Great Depression, high commissioner to the Philippines, administrator of the Federal Security Agency, chairman of the War Manpower Commission and ambassador to the Philippines.-Family and... | 2 | ||
| Alben W. Barkley Alben W. Barkley Alben William Barkley was an American politician in the Democratic Party who served as the 35th Vice President of the United States , under President Harry S. Truman.... | 1 |
Progressive Party nomination
Progressive Party (United States, 1948)
The United States Progressive Party of 1948 was a left-wing political party that ran former Vice President Henry A. Wallace of Iowa for president and U.S. Senator Glen H. Taylor of Idaho for vice president in 1948.-Foundation:...
— the name had been used earlier by Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore "Teddy" Roosevelt was the 26th President of the United States . He is noted for his exuberant personality, range of interests and achievements, and his leadership of the Progressive Movement, as well as his "cowboy" persona and robust masculinity...
in 1912 and Robert M. La Follette
Robert M. La Follette, Sr.
Robert Marion "Fighting Bob" La Follette, Sr. , was an American Republican politician. He served as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, was the Governor of Wisconsin, and was also a U.S. Senator from Wisconsin...
in 1924 — was created afresh in 1948 with the nomination of Henry A. Wallace
Henry A. Wallace
Henry Agard Wallace was the 33rd Vice President of the United States , the Secretary of Agriculture , and the Secretary of Commerce . In the 1948 presidential election, Wallace was the nominee of the Progressive Party.-Early life:Henry A...
, who had served as Secretary of Agriculture
United States Secretary of Agriculture
The United States Secretary of Agriculture is the head of the United States Department of Agriculture. The current secretary is Tom Vilsack, who was confirmed by the U.S. Senate on 20 January 2009. The position carries similar responsibilities to those of agriculture ministers in other...
, Vice President of the United States
Vice President of the United States
The Vice President of the United States is the holder of a public office created by the United States Constitution. The Vice President, together with the President of the United States, is indirectly elected by the people, through the Electoral College, to a four-year term...
, and Secretary of Commerce
United States Secretary of Commerce
The United States Secretary of Commerce is the head of the United States Department of Commerce concerned with business and industry; the Department states its mission to be "to foster, promote, and develop the foreign and domestic commerce"...
under Franklin D. Roosevelt
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt , also known by his initials, FDR, was the 32nd President of the United States and a central figure in world events during the mid-20th century, leading the United States during a time of worldwide economic crisis and world war...
. In 1946 President Truman had fired Wallace as Secretary of Commerce when Wallace publicly opposed Truman's firm moves to counter the Soviet Union
Soviet Union
The Soviet Union , officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics , was a constitutionally socialist state that existed in Eurasia between 1922 and 1991....
in the Cold War
Cold War
The Cold War was the continuing state from roughly 1946 to 1991 of political conflict, military tension, proxy wars, and economic competition between the Communist World—primarily the Soviet Union and its satellite states and allies—and the powers of the Western world, primarily the United States...
. Wallace's 1948 platform opposed the Cold War policies of President Truman, including the Marshall Plan
Marshall Plan
The Marshall Plan was the large-scale American program to aid Europe where the United States gave monetary support to help rebuild European economies after the end of World War II in order to combat the spread of Soviet communism. The plan was in operation for four years beginning in April 1948...
and Truman Doctrine
Truman Doctrine
The Truman Doctrine was a policy set forth by U.S. President Harry S Truman in a speech on March 12, 1947 stating that the U.S. would support Greece and Turkey with economic and military aid to prevent their falling into the Soviet sphere...
. The Progressives proposed stronger government regulation and control of Big Business
Big Business
Big business is a term used to describe large corporations, in either an individual or collective sense. The term first came into use in a symbolic sense subsequent to the American Civil War, particularly after 1880, in connection with the combination movement that began in American business at...
. They also campaigned to end discrimination against blacks and women, backed a minimum wage and called for the elimination of the House Un-American Activities Committee
House Un-American Activities Committee
The House Committee on Un-American Activities or House Un-American Activities Committee was an investigative committee of the United States House of Representatives. In 1969, the House changed the committee's name to "House Committee on Internal Security"...
, which was investigating the issue of communist
Communism
Communism is a social, political and economic ideology that aims at the establishment of a classless, moneyless, revolutionary and stateless socialist society structured upon common ownership of the means of production...
spies within the U.S. government and labor unions
Trade union
A trade union, trades union or labor union is an organization of workers that have banded together to achieve common goals such as better working conditions. The trade union, through its leadership, bargains with the employer on behalf of union members and negotiates labour contracts with...
. Wallace and his supporters believed that the committee was violating the civil liberties
Civil liberties
Civil liberties are rights and freedoms that provide an individual specific rights such as the freedom from slavery and forced labour, freedom from torture and death, the right to liberty and security, right to a fair trial, the right to defend one's self, the right to own and bear arms, the right...
of government workers and labor unions. However, the Progressives also generated a great deal of controversy, due to the widespread belief that they were secretly controlled by Communists who were more loyal to the Soviet Union
Soviet Union
The Soviet Union , officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics , was a constitutionally socialist state that existed in Eurasia between 1922 and 1991....
than the United States. Wallace himself denied being a Communist, but he repeatedly refused to disavow their support, and at one point was quoted as saying that the "Communists are the closest thing to the early Christian martyrs." Wallace was also hurt when Westbrook Pegler
Westbrook Pegler
Francis James Westbrook Pegler was an American journalist and writer. He was a popular columnist in the 1930s and 1940s famed for his opposition to the New Deal and labor unions. Pegler criticized every president from Herbert Hoover to FDR to Harry Truman to John F. Kennedy...
, a prominent conservative newspaper columnist, revealed that Wallace as Vice President had written coded letters discussing prominent politicians such as Franklin Roosevelt and Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill
Sir Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill, was a predominantly Conservative British politician and statesman known for his leadership of the United Kingdom during the Second World War. He is widely regarded as one of the greatest wartime leaders of the century and served as Prime Minister twice...
to his Russian New Age
New Age
The New Age movement is a Western spiritual movement that developed in the second half of the 20th century. Its central precepts have been described as "drawing on both Eastern and Western spiritual and metaphysical traditions and then infusing them with influences from self-help and motivational...
spiritual guru
Guru
A guru is one who is regarded as having great knowledge, wisdom, and authority in a certain area, and who uses it to guide others . Other forms of manifestation of this principle can include parents, school teachers, non-human objects and even one's own intellectual discipline, if the...
, Nicholas Roerich
Nicholas Roerich
Nicholas Roerich, also known as Nikolai Konstantinovich Rerikh , was a Russian mystic, painter, philosopher, scientist, writer, traveler, and public figure. A prolific artist, he created thousands of paintings and about 30 literary works...
. This revelation - and quotes from the letters were published - led to much ridicule of Wallace in the national press.
The Progressive Party Convention, which was held in Philadelphia, was a highly contentious affair; several famous newspaper journalists, such as H. L. Mencken
H. L. Mencken
Henry Louis "H. L." Mencken was an American journalist, essayist, magazine editor, satirist, acerbic critic of American life and culture, and a scholar of American English. Known as the "Sage of Baltimore", he is regarded as one of the most influential American writers and prose stylists of the...
and Dorothy Thompson
Dorothy Thompson
Dorothy Thompson was an American journalist and radio broadcaster, who in 1939 was recognized by Time magazine as the second most influential women in America next to Eleanor Roosevelt...
, publicly accused the Progressives of being covertly controlled by Communists. Several leading figures of the Progressive Party (such as socialist
Socialism
Socialism is an economic system characterized by social ownership of the means of production and cooperative management of the economy; or a political philosophy advocating such a system. "Social ownership" may refer to any one of, or a combination of, the following: cooperative enterprises,...
leader Norman Thomas
Norman Thomas
Norman Mattoon Thomas was a leading American socialist, pacifist, and six-time presidential candidate for the Socialist Party of America.-Early years:...
) quit the party in protest over what they perceived as the undue influence Communists exerted over Wallace. Thomas ran as the Socialist Party presidential candidate to offer an alternative to Wallace.
Senator Glen H. Taylor
Glen H. Taylor
Glen Hearst Taylor was an American politician, businessman and United States Senator from Idaho. He was the vice presidential candidate on the Progressive Party ticket in the 1948 election. Taylor was otherwise a member of the Idaho Democratic Party...
of Idaho
Idaho
Idaho is a state in the Rocky Mountain area of the United States. The state's largest city and capital is Boise. Residents are called "Idahoans". Idaho was admitted to the Union on July 3, 1890, as the 43rd state....
, an eccentric figure who was known as a "singing cowboy" and who had ridden his horse "Nugget" up the steps of the United States Capitol
United States Capitol
The United States Capitol is the meeting place of the United States Congress, the legislature of the federal government of the United States. Located in Washington, D.C., it sits atop Capitol Hill at the eastern end of the National Mall...
after winning election to the Senate in 1944, was named as Wallace's running mate.
States' Rights Democratic Party nomination
The Southern Democrats who had bolted the Democratic Convention over Truman's civil rights platform promptly met at Municipal AuditoriumBoutwell Memorial Auditorium
The Boutwell Memorial Auditorium is a 5,000-seat multi-purpose arena in Birmingham, Alabama, USA. It was built in 1924, as Birmingham's Municipal Auditorium, on a site near City Hall, facing Capitol Park ....
in Birmingham, Alabama
Birmingham, Alabama
Birmingham is the largest city in Alabama. The city is the county seat of Jefferson County. According to the 2010 United States Census, Birmingham had a population of 212,237. The Birmingham-Hoover Metropolitan Area, in estimate by the U.S...
and formed yet another political party, which they named the "States' Rights" Democratic Party
Dixiecrat
The States' Rights Democratic Party was a short-lived segregationist political party in the United States in 1948...
. More commonly known as the “Dixiecrats”, the party's main goal was continuing the policy of racial segregation
Racial segregation
Racial segregation is the separation of humans into racial groups in daily life. It may apply to activities such as eating in a restaurant, drinking from a water fountain, using a public toilet, attending school, going to the movies, or in the rental or purchase of a home...
in the South and the Jim Crow laws
Jim Crow laws
The Jim Crow laws were state and local laws in the United States enacted between 1876 and 1965. They mandated de jure racial segregation in all public facilities, with a supposedly "separate but equal" status for black Americans...
that sustained it. South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina is a state in the Deep South of the United States that borders Georgia to the south, North Carolina to the north, and the Atlantic Ocean to the east. Originally part of the Province of Carolina, the Province of South Carolina was one of the 13 colonies that declared independence...
Governor Strom Thurmond
Strom Thurmond
James Strom Thurmond was an American politician who served as a United States Senator. He also ran for the Presidency of the United States in 1948 as the segregationist States Rights Democratic Party candidate, receiving 2.4% of the popular vote and 39 electoral votes...
, who had led the walkout, became the party's presidential nominee. Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi is a U.S. state located in the Southern United States. Jackson is the state capital and largest city. The name of the state derives from the Mississippi River, which flows along its western boundary, whose name comes from the Ojibwe word misi-ziibi...
Governor Fielding L. Wright
Fielding L. Wright
Fielding Lewis Wright was a Democratic politician who served as Lieutenant Governor of Mississippi from 1944 to 1946, then as Governor after the incumbent, Thomas L. Bailey, died in office in 1946. Wright was elected Governor in his own right in 1947 and served a full four year term...
received the vice presidential nomination. The Dixiecrats had no chance of winning the election themselves, since they were not on the ballot in enough states. Their strategy was to take enough Southern states from Truman to force the election into the United States House of Representatives
United States House of Representatives
The United States House of Representatives is one of the two Houses of the United States Congress, the bicameral legislature which also includes the Senate.The composition and powers of the House are established in Article One of the Constitution...
, where they could then extract concessions from either Truman or Dewey on racial issues in exchange for their support. Even if Dewey won the election outright, the Dixiecrats hoped that their defection would show that the Democratic Party needed Southern support in order to win national elections, and that this fact would weaken the pro-civil rights movement among Northern and Western Democrats. However, the Dixiecrats were weakened when most Southern Democratic leaders (such as Governor Herman Talmadge
Herman Talmadge
Herman Eugene Talmadge was an American politician from the U.S. state of Georgia. He served as governor of Georgia briefly in 1947 and again from 1948 to 1955. His term was marked by his segregationist policies. After leaving office Talmadge was elected to the U.S...
of Georgia
Georgia (U.S. state)
Georgia is a state located in the southeastern United States. It was established in 1732, the last of the original Thirteen Colonies. The state is named after King George II of Great Britain. Georgia was the fourth state to ratify the United States Constitution, on January 2, 1788...
and "Boss" E. H. Crump
E. H. Crump
Edward Hull "Boss" Crump was an American politician from Memphis, Tennessee. He was mayor from 1910 through 1915, and again briefly in 1940; in the intervening years he effectively appointed the mayors.-Career:...
of Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee is a U.S. state located in the Southeastern United States. It has a population of 6,346,105, making it the nation's 17th-largest state by population, and covers , making it the 36th-largest by total land area...
) refused to support the party. Despite being an incumbent President, Truman was not placed on the ballot in Alabama
Alabama
Alabama is a state located in the southeastern region of the United States. It is bordered by Tennessee to the north, Georgia to the east, Florida and the Gulf of Mexico to the south, and Mississippi to the west. Alabama ranks 30th in total land area and ranks second in the size of its inland...
. In the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina, the party was able to be labeled as the main Democratic Party ticket on the local ballots on election night Outside of these four states, however, it was only listed as a third-party ticket.
The fall campaign
Given Truman's sinking popularity and the seemingly fatal three-way split in the Democratic Party, Dewey appeared unbeatable. Top Republicans believed that all their candidate had to do to win was to avoid major mistakes; in keeping with this advice, Dewey carefully avoided risks. He spoke in platitudes, avoided controversial issues, and was vague on what he planned to do as President. Speech after speech was filled with non-political, optimistic assertions of the obvious, including the now infamous quote “You know that your future is still ahead of you.” An editorial in The (Louisville) Courier-Journal
The Courier-Journal
The Courier-Journal, locally called "The C-J", is the main newspaper for the city of Louisville, Kentucky, USA. According to the 1999 Editor & Publisher International Yearbook, the paper is the 48th largest daily paper in the United States and the single largest in Kentucky.- Origins :The...
summed it up as such: “No presidential candidate in the future will be so inept that four of his major speeches can be boiled down to these historic four sentences: Agriculture is important. Our rivers are full of fish. You cannot have freedom without liberty. Our future lies ahead.” Truman, trailing in the polls, decided to adopt a slashing, no-holds-barred campaign. He ridiculed Dewey by name, criticized Dewey's refusal to address specific issues, and scornfully targeted the Republican-controlled 80th Congress with a wave of relentless, and blistering, partisan assaults. He nicknamed the Republican-controlled Congress as the "do-nothing" Congress, a remark which brought strong criticism from GOP Congressional leaders (such as Senator Taft), but no comment from Dewey. In fact, Dewey rarely mentioned Truman's name during the campaign, which fit into his strategy of appearing to be above petty partisan politics.
1948 Republican National Convention
The 1948 Republican National Convention was held at the Municipal Auditorium, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from June 21 to 25, 1948.New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey had paved the way to win the Republican presidential nomination in the primary elections, where he had beaten Minnesota Governor...
that called for expanding social security
Social security
Social security is primarily a social insurance program providing social protection or protection against socially recognized conditions, including poverty, old age, disability, unemployment and others. Social security may refer to:...
, more funding for public housing, civil rights
Civil rights
Civil and political rights are a class of rights that protect individuals' freedom from unwarranted infringement by governments and private organizations, and ensure one's ability to participate in the civil and political life of the state without discrimination or repression.Civil rights include...
legislation, and promotion of health and education by the federal government. These positions were, however, unacceptable to the conservative Congressional Republican leadership. Truman exploited this rift in the opposing party by calling a special session of Congress
Turnip Day Session
The Turnip Day Session was a special session of Congress called on July 26, 1948, "Turnip Day" according to Missouri folklore, by United States President Harry Truman....
on “Turnip Day” (referring to an old piece of Missouri folklore about planting turnips in late July) and daring the Republican Congressional leadership to pass its own platform. The 80th Congress
80th United States Congress
The Eightieth United States Congress was a meeting of the legislative branch of the United States federal government, composed of the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives. It met in Washington, DC from January 3, 1947 to January 3, 1949, during the third and fourth...
played into Truman's hands, delivering very little in the way of substantive legislation during this time. The GOP's lack of action in the "turnip" session of Congress allowed Truman to continue his attacks on the "do-nothing" Republican-controlled Congress. Truman simply ignored the fact that Dewey's policies were considerably more liberal than most of his fellow Republicans, and instead he concentrated his fire against what he characterized as the conservative, obstructionist tendencies of the unpopular 80th Congress.
In the final weeks of the campaign, American movie theatres agreed to play two short newsreel-like campaign films in support of the two major-party candidates; each film had been created by its respective campaign organization. The Dewey film, shot professionally on an impressive budget, featured very high production values, but somehow reinforced an image of the New York governor as cautious and distant. The Truman film, hastily assembled on virtually no budget by the perpetually cash-short Truman campaign, relied heavily on public-domain and newsreel footage of the President taking part in major world events and signing important legislation. Perhaps unintentionally, the Truman film visually reinforced an image of the President as engaged and decisive. Years later, historian David McCullough
David McCullough
David Gaub McCullough is an American author, narrator, historian, and lecturer. He is a two-time winner of the Pulitzer Prize and the National Book Award and a recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the United States' highest civilian award....
cited the expensive, but lackluster, Dewey film, and the far cheaper, but more effective, Truman film, as important factors in determining the preferences of undecided voters.
In the campaign's final days many newspapers, magazines, and political pundits were so confident of Dewey's impending victory they wrote articles to be printed the morning after the election speculating about the new "Dewey Presidency". Life
Life (magazine)
Life generally refers to three American magazines:*A humor and general interest magazine published from 1883 to 1936. Time founder Henry Luce bought the magazine in 1936 solely so that he could acquire the rights to its name....
magazine printed a large photo in its final edition before the election; entitled "Our Next President Rides by Ferryboat over San Francisco Bay", the photo showed Dewey and his staff riding across the city's harbor. Several well-known and influential newspaper columnists, such as Drew Pearson
Drew Pearson (journalist)
Andrew Russell Pearson , known professionally as Drew Pearson, was one of the best-known American columnists of his day, noted for his muckraking syndicated newspaper column "Washington Merry-Go-Round," in which he attacked various public persons, sometimes with little or no objective proof for his...
and Joseph Alsop
Joseph Alsop
Joseph Wright Alsop V was an American journalist and syndicated newspaper columnist from the 1930s through the 1970s.-Early years:...
, wrote columns to be printed the morning after the election speculating about Dewey's possible choices for his cabinet. Alistair Cooke
Alistair Cooke
Alfred Alistair Cooke KBE was a British/American journalist, television personality and broadcaster. Outside his journalistic output, which included Letter from America and Alistair Cooke's America, he was well known in the United States as the host of PBS Masterpiece Theater from 1971 to 1992...
, the distinguished writer for the Manchester Guardian
The Guardian
The Guardian, formerly known as The Manchester Guardian , is a British national daily newspaper in the Berliner format...
newspaper in England, published an article on the day of the election entitled "Harry S. Truman: A Study of a Failure." As Truman made his way to his hometown of Independence, Missouri
Independence, Missouri
Independence is the fourth largest city in the U.S. state of Missouri, and is contained within the counties of Jackson and Clay. It is part of the Kansas City Metropolitan Area...
to await the election returns, not a single reporter traveling on his campaign train thought that he would win.
Results
New York City
New York is the most populous city in the United States and the center of the New York Metropolitan Area, one of the most populous metropolitan areas in the world. New York exerts a significant impact upon global commerce, finance, media, art, fashion, research, technology, education, and...
to await the returns. Truman, aided by the Secret Service
United States Secret Service
The United States Secret Service is a United States federal law enforcement agency that is part of the United States Department of Homeland Security. The sworn members are divided among the Special Agents and the Uniformed Division. Until March 1, 2003, the Service was part of the United States...
, sneaked away from reporters covering him in Kansas City, Missouri
Kansas City, Missouri
Kansas City, Missouri is the largest city in the U.S. state of Missouri and is the anchor city of the Kansas City Metropolitan Area, the second largest metropolitan area in Missouri. It encompasses in parts of Jackson, Clay, Cass, and Platte counties...
and made his way to nearby Excelsior Springs, Missouri
Excelsior Springs, Missouri
Excelsior Springs is a city in Clay and Ray counties in the U.S. state of Missouri. The population was 11,084 at the 2010 census. It is located approximately northeast of central Kansas City, Missouri.- Geography :...
, a small resort town. There he took a room in the Elms Hotel, had dinner and a Turkish bath, and went to sleep. As the returns came in Truman took an early lead which he never lost. However, the leading radio commentators, such as H. V. Kaltenborn of NBC
NBC
The National Broadcasting Company is an American commercial broadcasting television network and former radio network headquartered in the GE Building in New York City's Rockefeller Center with additional major offices near Los Angeles and in Chicago...
, confidently predicted that once the "late returns" came in Dewey would overcome Truman's lead and win. At midnight, Truman awoke and turned on the radio in his room; he heard Kaltenborn announce that, while Truman was still ahead in the popular vote, he couldn't possibly win. Around 4 a.m. Truman awoke again, heard on the radio that his lead was nearly two million votes, and decided to ride back to Kansas City. For the rest of his life, Truman would gleefully mimic Kaltenborn's voice predicting his defeat throughout that election night. Dewey, meanwhile, realized that he was in trouble when early returns from New York and New England
New England
New England is a region in the northeastern corner of the United States consisting of the six states of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut...
showed him running well behind his expected vote total. He was also troubled when the early returns showed that Henry A. Wallace
Henry A. Wallace
Henry Agard Wallace was the 33rd Vice President of the United States , the Secretary of Agriculture , and the Secretary of Commerce . In the 1948 presidential election, Wallace was the nominee of the Progressive Party.-Early life:Henry A...
and Strom Thurmond
Strom Thurmond
James Strom Thurmond was an American politician who served as a United States Senator. He also ran for the Presidency of the United States in 1948 as the segregationist States Rights Democratic Party candidate, receiving 2.4% of the popular vote and 39 electoral votes...
, the two third-party candidates, were not taking as many votes from Truman as had been predicted. Dewey stayed up throughout the night examining the votes as they came in. By 10:30 the next morning he was convinced that he had lost; he then sent a gracious telegram of concession to Truman.
The Chicago Daily Tribune
Chicago Tribune
The Chicago Tribune is a major daily newspaper based in Chicago, Illinois, and the flagship publication of the Tribune Company. Formerly self-styled as the "World's Greatest Newspaper" , it remains the most read daily newspaper of the Chicago metropolitan area and the Great Lakes region and is...
, a pro-Republican newspaper, was so sure of Dewey's victory it printed “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN
Dewey Defeats Truman
"Dewey Defeats Truman" was a famously inaccurate banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President Harry S. Truman beat Republican challenger and Governor of New York Thomas E...
” on election night as its headline for the following day. A famous photograph taken the next morning showed Truman grinning and holding up a copy of the newspaper. Part of the reason Truman's victory came as such a shock was because of as-yet uncorrected flaws in the emerging craft of public opinion polling. A political theory supported by many pollsters (and largely discredited by the 1948 election) held that voters had already decided who they would support by the time the political conventions ended during the summer, and that few voters were swayed by the campaigning done during the autumn. As a result many pollsters were so confident of Dewey's victory that they simply stopped polling voters weeks before the election, and thus missed a last-minute surge of support for the Democrats. It has been estimated that some 14% of Dewey's supporters — swayed by Truman's claims that an economic depression could return under GOP rule — switched to Truman in the final days before the election. After 1948, pollsters would survey voters until the day before the election: they would also announce their results on television, more or less in real time.
The key states in the 1948 election were Ohio
Ohio
Ohio is a Midwestern state in the United States. The 34th largest state by area in the U.S.,it is the 7th‑most populous with over 11.5 million residents, containing several major American cities and seven metropolitan areas with populations of 500,000 or more.The state's capital is Columbus...
, California
California
California is a state located on the West Coast of the United States. It is by far the most populous U.S. state, and the third-largest by land area...
, and Illinois
Illinois
Illinois is the fifth-most populous state of the United States of America, and is often noted for being a microcosm of the entire country. With Chicago in the northeast, small industrial cities and great agricultural productivity in central and northern Illinois, and natural resources like coal,...
. Truman narrowly won all three states by a margin of less than 1%. These three states had a combined total of 78 electoral votes. Had Dewey carried all three states by the same narrow margins, he would have won the election in the electoral college
Electoral college
An electoral college is a set of electors who are selected to elect a candidate to a particular office. Often these represent different organizations or entities, with each organization or entity represented by a particular number of electors or with votes weighted in a particular way...
while still losing the popular vote. Had Dewey won any two of the three states the Dixiecrats would have succeeded in their goal of forcing the election into the House. The extreme closeness of the vote in these three states was the major reason why Dewey waited until late on the morning of November 3 to concede. A similarly narrow margin garnered Idaho
Idaho
Idaho is a state in the Rocky Mountain area of the United States. The state's largest city and capital is Boise. Residents are called "Idahoans". Idaho was admitted to the Union on July 3, 1890, as the 43rd state....
and Nevada
Nevada
Nevada is a state in the western, mountain west, and southwestern regions of the United States. With an area of and a population of about 2.7 million, it is the 7th-largest and 35th-most populous state. Over two-thirds of Nevada's people live in the Las Vegas metropolitan area, which contains its...
's electoral votes for Truman. Dewey countered by narrowly carrying New York
New York
New York is a state in the Northeastern region of the United States. It is the nation's third most populous state. New York is bordered by New Jersey and Pennsylvania to the south, and by Connecticut, Massachusetts and Vermont to the east...
and Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is a U.S. state that is located in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. The state borders Delaware and Maryland to the south, West Virginia to the southwest, Ohio to the west, New York and Ontario, Canada, to the north, and New Jersey to...
, the states with the most electoral votes at the time, as well as Michigan
Michigan
Michigan is a U.S. state located in the Great Lakes Region of the United States of America. The name Michigan is the French form of the Ojibwa word mishigamaa, meaning "large water" or "large lake"....
, but it wasn't enough to give him the election. Dewey would always believe that he lost the election because he lost the rural vote in the Midwest, which he had won in the 1944 presidential election; given the effect the dramatic drop in farm commodity prices in the fall of 1948, a year of record farm harvests, may have had on the political mindset of the rural vote that November, Dewey may well have been right.
The 1948 election marked only the third time in American presidential election history that the winning candidate won despite losing Pennsylvania and New York (the first two times being the 1868 election
United States presidential election, 1868
The United States presidential election of 1868 was the first presidential election to take place after the American Civil War, during the period referred to as Reconstruction...
and the 1916 election
United States presidential election, 1916
The United States presidential election of 1916 took place while Europe was embroiled in World War I. Public sentiment in the still neutral United States leaned towards the British and French forces, due to the harsh treatment of civilians by the German Army, which had invaded and occupied large...
- later such elections included 1968
United States presidential election, 1968
The United States presidential election of 1968 was the 46th quadrennial United States presidential election. Coming four years after Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson won in a historic landslide, it saw Johnson forced out of the race and Republican Richard Nixon elected...
, 2000
United States presidential election, 2000
The United States presidential election of 2000 was a contest between Republican candidate George W. Bush, then-governor of Texas and son of former president George H. W. Bush , and Democratic candidate Al Gore, then-Vice President....
, and 2004
United States presidential election, 2004
The United States presidential election of 2004 was the United States' 55th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2004. Republican Party candidate and incumbent President George W. Bush defeated Democratic Party candidate John Kerry, the then-junior U.S. Senator...
). This was also the last time a Democratic candidate won Arizona
Arizona
Arizona ; is a state located in the southwestern region of the United States. It is also part of the western United States and the mountain west. The capital and largest city is Phoenix...
except for one case: Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton
William Jefferson "Bill" Clinton is an American politician who served as the 42nd President of the United States from 1993 to 2001. Inaugurated at age 46, he was the third-youngest president. He took office at the end of the Cold War, and was the first president of the baby boomer generation...
pulled out a two-point win in 1996
United States presidential election, 1996
The United States presidential election of 1996 was a contest between the Democratic national ticket of President Bill Clinton of Arkansas and Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee and the Republican national ticket of former Senator Bob Dole of Kansas for President and former Housing Secretary Jack...
. It contrasted with elections from across the world, as Truman was a war leader who managed to win re-election. As of 2008, Truman is the most unpopular leader to win re-election, though his standing with all Americans increased so much in the ensuing decades that he is now remembered by many historians as one of the greatest presidents of the 20th century.
Source (Popular Vote): Source (Electoral Vote):
Close states
Margin of victory less than 8%:- Ohio, 0.24%
- California, 0.44%
- Indiana, 0.80%
- Illinois, 0.84%
- New York, 0.99%
- Delaware, 1.28%
- Maryland, 1.39%
- Connecticut, 1.64%
- Michigan, 1.67%
- Iowa, 2.73%
- Idaho, 2.73%
- Nevada, 3.11%
- Oregon, 3.39%
- Pennsylvania, 4.01%
- Wyoming, 4.35%
- New Jersey, 4.39%
- Wisconsin, 4.41%
- South Dakota, 4.80%
Results by state
| Harry Truman Democratic |
Thomas Dewey Republican |
Strom Thurmond Dixiecrat |
Henry Wallace Progressive |
Other | State Total | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | electoral votes |
# | % | electoral votes |
# | % | electoral votes |
# | % | electoral votes |
# | % | electoral votes |
# | % | electoral votes |
# | |
| Alabama | 11 | not on ballot | 40,930 | 19.0 | ||||||||||||||
| 171,443 | 79.8 | 11 | 1,522 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||
| 1,085 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 214,980 | AL | |||||||||||||||||
| Arizona | 4 | 95,251 | 53.8 | 4 | 77,597 | 43.8 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 3,310 | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||
| 907 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 177,065 | AZ | |||||||||||||||||
| Arkansas | 9 | 149,659 | 61.7 | 9 | 50,959 | 21.0 | ||||||||||||
| 40,068 | 16.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 751 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| 1,038 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 242,475 | AR | |||||||||||||||||
| California | 25 | 1,913,134 | 47.6 | 25 | 1,895,269 | 47.1 | ||||||||||||
| 1,228 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 190,381 | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| 21,526 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 4,021,538 | CA | |||||||||||||||||
| Colorado | 6 | 267,288 | 51.9 | 6 | 239,714 | 46.5 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 6,115 | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2,120 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| 515,237 | CO | |||||||||||||||||
| Connecticut | 8 | 423,297 | 47.9 | |||||||||||||||
| 437,754 | 49.6 | 8 | not on ballot | 13,713 | 1.6 | |||||||||||||
| 8,754 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 883,518 | CT | |||||||||||||||||
| Delaware | 3 | 67,813 | 48.8 | |||||||||||||||
| 69,588 | 50.0 | 3 | not on ballot | 1,050 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||
| 622 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 139,073 | DE | |||||||||||||||||
| Florida | 8 | 281,988 | 48.8 | 8 | 194,280 | 33.6 | ||||||||||||
| 89,755 | 15.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 11,620 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 577,643 | FL | ||||||||||||||||
| Georgia | 12 | 254,646 | 60.8 | 12 | 76,691 | 18.3 | ||||||||||||
| 85,055 | 20.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| 1,636 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| 736 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| 418,764 | GA | |||||||||||||||||
| Idaho | 4 | 107,370 | 50.0 | 4 | 101,514 | 47.2 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 4,972 | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||
| 960 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 214,816 | ID | |||||||||||||||||
| Illinois | 28 | 1,994,715 | 50.1 | 28 | 1,961,103 | 49.2 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 28,228 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||||
| 3,984,046 | IL | |||||||||||||||||
| Indiana | 13 | 807,833 | 48.8 | |||||||||||||||
| 821,079 | 49.6 | 13 | not on ballot | 9,649 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||
| 17,653 | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 1,656,214 | IN | |||||||||||||||||
| Iowa | 10 | 522,380 | 50.3 | 10 | 494,018 | 47.6 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 12,125 | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| 9,741 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| 1,038,264 | IA | |||||||||||||||||
| Kansas | 8 | 351,902 | 44.6 | |||||||||||||||
| 423,039 | 53.6 | 8 | not on ballot | 4,603 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||
| 9,275 | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| 788,819 | KS | |||||||||||||||||
| Kentucky | 11 | 466,756 | 56.7 | 11 | 341,210 | 41.5 | ||||||||||||
| 10,411 | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| 1,567 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2,714 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| 822,658 | KY | |||||||||||||||||
| Louisiana | 10 | 136,344 | 32.8 | |||||||||||||||
| 72,657 | 17.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 204,290 | 49.1 | 10 | 3,035 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||
| 10 | 0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| 416,336 | LA | |||||||||||||||||
| Maine | 5 | 111,916 | 42.3 | |||||||||||||||
| 150,234 | 56.7 | 5 | not on ballot | 1,884 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||
| 753 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| 264,787 | ME | |||||||||||||||||
| Maryland | 8 | 286,521 | 48.0 | |||||||||||||||
| 294,814 | 49.4 | 8 | 2,476 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||
| 9,983 | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2,941 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 596,735 | MD | |||||||||||||||||
| Massachusetts | 16 | 1,151,788 | 54.7 | 16 | 909,370 | 43.2 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 38,157 | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||
| 7,831 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2,107,146 | MA | |||||||||||||||||
| Michigan | 19 | 1,003,448 | 47.6 | |||||||||||||||
| 1,038,595 | 49.2 | 19 | not on ballot | 46,515 | 2.2 | |||||||||||||
| 21,051 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2,109,609 | MI | |||||||||||||||||
| Minnesota | 11 | 692,966 | 57.2 | 11 | 483,617 | 39.9 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 27,866 | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||
| 7,777 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| 1,212,226 | MN | |||||||||||||||||
| Mississippi | 9 | 19,384 | 10.1 | |||||||||||||||
| 5,043 | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| 167,538 | 87.2 | 9 | 225 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 192,190 | MS | ||||||||||||||||
| Missouri | 15 | 917,315 | 58.1 | 15 | 655,039 | 41.5 | ||||||||||||
| 42 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 3,998 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2,234 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 1,578,628 | MO | |||||||||||||||||
| Montana | 4 | 119,071 | 53.1 | 4 | 96,770 | 43.2 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 7,313 | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||
| 1,124 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 224,278 | MT | |||||||||||||||||
| Nebraska | 6 | 224,165 | 45.9 | |||||||||||||||
| 264,774 | 54.2 | 6 | not on ballot | 1 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||
| 488,940 | NE | |||||||||||||||||
| Nevada | 3 | 31,291 | 50.4 | 3 | 29,357 | 47.3 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 1,469 | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 62,117 | NV | ||||||||||||||||
| New Hampshire | 4 | 107,995 | 46.7 | |||||||||||||||
| 121,299 | 52.4 | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||
| 1,970 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| 169 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 231,440 | NH | |||||||||||||||||
| New Jersey | 16 | 895,455 | 45.9 | |||||||||||||||
| 981,124 | 50.3 | 16 | not on ballot | 42,683 | 2.2 | |||||||||||||
| 30,293 | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| 1,949,555 | NJ | |||||||||||||||||
| New Mexico | 4 | 105,464 | 56.4 | 4 | 80,303 | 42.9 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 1,037 | 0.6 | ||||||||||||||||
| 259 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 187,063 | NM | |||||||||||||||||
| New York | 47 | 2,780,204 | 45.0 | |||||||||||||||
| 2,841,163 | 46.0 | 47 | not on ballot | 509,559 | 8.3 | |||||||||||||
| 46,411 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| 6,177,337 | NY | |||||||||||||||||
| North Carolina | 14 | 459,070 | 58.0 | 14 | 258,572 | 32.7 | ||||||||||||
| 69,652 | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| 3,915 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 791,209 | NC | ||||||||||||||||
| North Dakota | 4 | 95,812 | 43.4 | |||||||||||||||
| 115,139 | 52.2 | 4 | 374 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||
| 8,391 | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| 1,000 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 220,716 | ND | |||||||||||||||||
| Ohio | 25 | 1,452,791 | 49.5 | 25 | 1,445,684 | 49.2 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 37,596 | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 2,936,071 | OH | ||||||||||||||||
| Oklahoma | 10 | 452,782 | 62.7 | 10 | 268,817 | 37.3 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 721,599 | OK | ||||||||||||||||
| Oregon | 6 | 243,147 | 46.4 | |||||||||||||||
| 260,904 | 49.8 | 6 | not on ballot | 14,978 | 2.9 | |||||||||||||
| 5,051 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 524,080 | OR | |||||||||||||||||
| Pennsylvania | 35 | 1,752,426 | 46.9 | |||||||||||||||
| 1,902,197 | 50.9 | 35 | not on ballot | 55,161 | 1.5 | |||||||||||||
| 25,364 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| 3,735,148 | PA | |||||||||||||||||
| Rhode Island | 4 | 188,736 | 57.6 | 4 | 135,787 | 41.4 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 2,619 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||
| 560 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| 327,702 | RI | |||||||||||||||||
| South Carolina | 8 | 34,423 | 24.1 | |||||||||||||||
| 5,386 | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| 102,607 | 72.0 | 8 | 154 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||
| 1 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 142,571 | SC | |||||||||||||||||
| South Dakota | 4 | 117,653 | 47.0 | |||||||||||||||
| 129,651 | 51.8 | 4 | not on ballot | 2,801 | 1.1 | |||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 250,105 | SD | ||||||||||||||||
| Tennessee | 12 | 270,402 | 49.1 | 11 | 202,914 | 36.9 | ||||||||||||
| 73,815 | 13.4 | 1 | 1,864 | 0.3 | ||||||||||||||
| 1,288 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| 550,283 | TN | |||||||||||||||||
| Texas | 23 | 824,235 | 66.0 | 23 | 303,467 | 24.2 | ||||||||||||
| 113,776 | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 3,920 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| 4,179 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| 1,249,577 | TX | |||||||||||||||||
| Utah | 4 | 149,151 | 54.0 | 4 | 124,402 | 45.0 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 2,679 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 73 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 276,305 | UT | |||||||||||||||||
| Vermont | 3 | 45,557 | 36.9 | |||||||||||||||
| 75,926 | 61.5 | 3 | not on ballot | 1,279 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
| 620 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 123,382 | VT | |||||||||||||||||
| Virginia | 11 | 200,786 | 47.9 | 11 | 172,070 | 41.0 | ||||||||||||
| 43,393 | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2,047 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| 960 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| 419,256 | VA | |||||||||||||||||
| Washington | 8 | 476,165 | 52.6 | 8 | 386,315 | 42.7 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 31,692 | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||
| 10,887 | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| 905,059 | WA | |||||||||||||||||
| West Virginia | 8 | 429,188 | 57.3 | 8 | 316,251 | 42.2 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 3,311 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 748,750 | WV | ||||||||||||||||
| Wisconsin | 12 | 647,310 | 50.7 | 12 | 590,959 | 46.3 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 25,282 | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 13,249 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 1,276,800 | WI | |||||||||||||||||
| Wyoming | 3 | 52,354 | 51.6 | 3 | 47,947 | 47.3 | ||||||||||||
| not on ballot | 931 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||||
| 193 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| 101,425 | WY | |||||||||||||||||
| TOTALS: | 531 | 24,179,347 | 49.6 | 303 | 21,991,292 | 45.1 | 189 | 1,175,930 | 2.4 | 39 | 1,157,328 | 2.4 | ||||||
| 289,638 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| 48,793,535 | ||||||||||||||||||
| TO WIN: | 266 | |||||||||||||||||
(a) In New York
New York
New York is a state in the Northeastern region of the United States. It is the nation's third most populous state. New York is bordered by New Jersey and Pennsylvania to the south, and by Connecticut, Massachusetts and Vermont to the east...
, the Truman vote was a fusion of the Democratic and Liberal slates. There, Truman obtained 2,557,642 votes on the Democratic ticket and 222,562 votes on the Liberal ticket.
(b) In Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi is a U.S. state located in the Southern United States. Jackson is the state capital and largest city. The name of the state derives from the Mississippi River, which flows along its western boundary, whose name comes from the Ojibwe word misi-ziibi...
, the Dewey vote was a fusion of the Republican and Independent Republican slates. There, Dewey obtained 2595 votes on the Republican ticket and 2448 votes on the Independent Republican ticket.
See also
- History of the United States (1945–1964)History of the United States (1945–1964)For the United States, 1945 to 1964 was an era of economic growth and prosperity which saw the victorious powers of World War II confronting each other in the Cold War and the triumph of the Civil Rights Movement that ended Jim Crow segregation in the South....
- Truman Balcony
- United States Senate elections, 1948
Further reading
- Sitkoff, Harvard. "Harry Truman and the Election of 1948: The Coming of Age of Civil Rights in American Politics," Journal of Southern History Vol. 37, No. 4 (Nov., 1971), pp. 597-616 in JSTOR
External links
- 1948 popular vote by counties
- 1948 State-by-state Popular vote
- How close was the 1948 election? — Michael Sheppard, Massachusetts Institute of Technology