Spoiler effect
Encyclopedia
The spoiler effect describes the effect a minor party
candidate with little chance of winning has in a close election
, when that candidate's presence in the election draws votes from a major candidate similar to them, thereby causing a candidate dissimilar to them to win the election. The minor candidate causing this effect is often referred to as a spoiler.
If preferential ballots
are not used, the spoiler candidate takes votes away from the viable similar candidate (an effect called vote splitting
). In some cases, even though the spoiler candidate cannot win themselves, their influence upon the voters may allow them to deliberately determine which of the viable candidates wins the election—a situation known as a kingmaker scenario
.
In a preferential voting system, a voter can vote for a minor party candidate as their first choice, and in addition, they can record a preference between the remaining candidates, whether they are in a "major party" or not. For example, voters for a very left-wing candidate might select a moderately left-wing candidate as their second choice, thus minimizing the chances that their vote will result in the election of a right-wing candidate. Approval voting
can also reduce the impact of the "spoiler effect".
(IIA) axiom, and vote splitting.
Arrow's impossibility theorem
states that rank-voting systems are unable to satisfy the independence of irrelevant alternatives
criterion without exhibiting other undesirable properties as a consequence. However, different voting system
s are affected to a greater or lesser extent by IIA failure. For example, instant runoff voting is considered to have less frequent IIA failure than First Past the Post. The independence of Smith-dominated alternatives (ISDA) criterion is similar to IIA; unlike IIA, some ranked-ballot voting methods can pass ISDA.
, the Democratic candidate, received more popular votes than George W. Bush
, the Republican candidate, but lost in the electoral college. In the state of Florida
, the final certified vote count showed Bush with just 537 more votes than Gore. Because Bush defeated Gore in Florida, he won the state, received more votes in the electoral college, and became president of the United States.
Gore supporters pointed out that, had candidate Ralph Nader
, a liberal, not run in the election, the majority of the 97,421 votes he received in Florida would have been cast for Gore. Gore supporters contend that Nader's candidacy spoiled the election for Gore by taking away enough votes from Gore in Florida to swing the election to Bush. Their argument is bolstered by a poll of Nader voters, asking them for whom they would have voted had Nader not run, which said 45 percent of Nader voters would have voted for Gore, 27 percent would have voted for Bush, and the rest would not have voted.
Nader himself and many of his supporters argued that most Nader voters would have chosen another minor party candidate, or abstained from voting, had he not been on the ballot. Some observers began to refer to the spoiler effect as the "Nader effect" after the 2000 election.
. There, a minority party with no chance of winning, Congress of the People
, took votes from its former party, the United National Congress
and made it lose seats, thus allowing the incumbent
People's National Movement
, highly disfavoured for the elections, to take the Government role again.
In New Zealand, there have been two notable cases of the spoiler effect. In the 1984 general election
, the free-market New Zealand Party
deliberately ran for office in order to weaken support for the incumbent Prime Minister Robert Muldoon
. Later on, the 1993 general election
saw the New Zealand Labour Party
's vote split by The Alliance, which has been attributed to the vagaries of the first past the post electoral system.
In individual participant sports, such as automobile racing, a racer with no hope of obtaining a championship title could prevent a racer with a chance at the title by defeating them, preventing the contending racer from earning critical points toward winning the title. Instead, the title would go to the contender directly behind him in the rankings, provided that second-tier racer is close enough to surpass and they win their own competition.
Minor party
Minor party is a political party that play a smaller role than a major party in a country's politics and elections. The difference between minor and major parties can be so big that the membership total, donations, and the candidates that they are able to produce or attract are very distinct...
candidate with little chance of winning has in a close election
Election
An election is a formal decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy operates since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the...
, when that candidate's presence in the election draws votes from a major candidate similar to them, thereby causing a candidate dissimilar to them to win the election. The minor candidate causing this effect is often referred to as a spoiler.
If preferential ballots
Preferential voting
Preferential voting is a type of ballot structure used in several electoral systems in which voters rank candidates in order of relative preference. For example, the voter may select their first choice as '1', their second preference a '2', and so on...
are not used, the spoiler candidate takes votes away from the viable similar candidate (an effect called vote splitting
Vote splitting
Vote splitting is an electoral effect in which the distribution of votes among multiple similar candidates reduces the chance of winning for any of the similar candidates, and increases the chance of winning for a dissimilar candidate....
). In some cases, even though the spoiler candidate cannot win themselves, their influence upon the voters may allow them to deliberately determine which of the viable candidates wins the election—a situation known as a kingmaker scenario
Kingmaker scenario
A kingmaker scenario, in a game of three or more players, is an endgame situation where a player unable to win has the capacity to determine which player among others is the winner. Said player is referred to as the kingmaker or spoiler...
.
In a preferential voting system, a voter can vote for a minor party candidate as their first choice, and in addition, they can record a preference between the remaining candidates, whether they are in a "major party" or not. For example, voters for a very left-wing candidate might select a moderately left-wing candidate as their second choice, thus minimizing the chances that their vote will result in the election of a right-wing candidate. Approval voting
Approval voting
Approval voting is a single-winner voting system used for elections. Each voter may vote for as many of the candidates as the voter wishes. The winner is the candidate receiving the most votes. Each voter may vote for any combination of candidates and may give each candidate at most one vote.The...
can also reduce the impact of the "spoiler effect".
Mathematical definitions
Possible mathematical definitions for the spoiler effect include failure of the independence of irrelevant alternativesIndependence of irrelevant alternatives
Independence of irrelevant alternatives is an axiom of decision theory and various social sciences.The word is used in different meanings in different contexts....
(IIA) axiom, and vote splitting.
Arrow's impossibility theorem
Arrow's impossibility theorem
In social choice theory, Arrow’s impossibility theorem, the General Possibility Theorem, or Arrow’s paradox, states that, when voters have three or more distinct alternatives , no voting system can convert the ranked preferences of individuals into a community-wide ranking while also meeting a...
states that rank-voting systems are unable to satisfy the independence of irrelevant alternatives
Independence of irrelevant alternatives
Independence of irrelevant alternatives is an axiom of decision theory and various social sciences.The word is used in different meanings in different contexts....
criterion without exhibiting other undesirable properties as a consequence. However, different voting system
Voting system
A voting system or electoral system is a method by which voters make a choice between options, often in an election or on a policy referendum....
s are affected to a greater or lesser extent by IIA failure. For example, instant runoff voting is considered to have less frequent IIA failure than First Past the Post. The independence of Smith-dominated alternatives (ISDA) criterion is similar to IIA; unlike IIA, some ranked-ballot voting methods can pass ISDA.
Bush, Gore, and Nader (2000 U.S. presidential election)
The 2000 U.S. Presidential election is often cited as an example of the spoiler effect. In that election, Al GoreAl Gore
Albert Arnold "Al" Gore, Jr. served as the 45th Vice President of the United States , under President Bill Clinton. He was the Democratic Party's nominee for President in the 2000 U.S. presidential election....
, the Democratic candidate, received more popular votes than George W. Bush
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
, the Republican candidate, but lost in the electoral college. In the state of Florida
Florida
Florida is a state in the southeastern United States, located on the nation's Atlantic and Gulf coasts. It is bordered to the west by the Gulf of Mexico, to the north by Alabama and Georgia and to the east by the Atlantic Ocean. With a population of 18,801,310 as measured by the 2010 census, it...
, the final certified vote count showed Bush with just 537 more votes than Gore. Because Bush defeated Gore in Florida, he won the state, received more votes in the electoral college, and became president of the United States.
Gore supporters pointed out that, had candidate Ralph Nader
Ralph Nader
Ralph Nader is an American political activist, as well as an author, lecturer, and attorney. Areas of particular concern to Nader include consumer protection, humanitarianism, environmentalism, and democratic government....
, a liberal, not run in the election, the majority of the 97,421 votes he received in Florida would have been cast for Gore. Gore supporters contend that Nader's candidacy spoiled the election for Gore by taking away enough votes from Gore in Florida to swing the election to Bush. Their argument is bolstered by a poll of Nader voters, asking them for whom they would have voted had Nader not run, which said 45 percent of Nader voters would have voted for Gore, 27 percent would have voted for Bush, and the rest would not have voted.
Nader himself and many of his supporters argued that most Nader voters would have chosen another minor party candidate, or abstained from voting, had he not been on the ballot. Some observers began to refer to the spoiler effect as the "Nader effect" after the 2000 election.
Other alleged spoilers
These are third-party candidates who have been accused of denying victory to a major nominee:| Spoiler candidate | Election | "Denied victory" to | Winning candidate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Cotesworth Pinckney Charles Cotesworth Pinckney Charles Cotesworth “C. C.” Pinckney , was an early American statesman of South Carolina, Revolutionary War veteran, and delegate to the Constitutional Convention. He was twice nominated by the Federalist Party as their presidential candidate, but he did not win either election.-Early life and... |
1800 | John Adams John Adams John Adams was an American lawyer, statesman, diplomat and political theorist. A leading champion of independence in 1776, he was the second President of the United States... |
Thomas Jefferson Thomas Jefferson Thomas Jefferson was the principal author of the United States Declaration of Independence and the Statute of Virginia for Religious Freedom , the third President of the United States and founder of the University of Virginia... |
| James Birney James Birney James Birney may refer to:*James G. Birney , American presidential candidate for the Liberty Party*James M. Birney , Michigan politician, son of James G. Birney... |
1844 | Henry Clay Henry Clay Henry Clay, Sr. , was a lawyer, politician and skilled orator who represented Kentucky separately in both the Senate and in the House of Representatives... |
James Knox Polk |
| Martin van Buren Martin Van Buren Martin Van Buren was the eighth President of the United States . Before his presidency, he was the eighth Vice President and the tenth Secretary of State, under Andrew Jackson .... |
1848 | Lewis Cass Lewis Cass Lewis Cass was an American military officer and politician. During his long political career, Cass served as a governor of the Michigan Territory, an American ambassador, a U.S. Senator representing Michigan, and co-founder as well as first Masonic Grand Master of the Grand Lodge of Michigan... |
Zachary Taylor Zachary Taylor Zachary Taylor was the 12th President of the United States and an American military leader. Initially uninterested in politics, Taylor nonetheless ran as a Whig in the 1848 presidential election, defeating Lewis Cass... |
| Peter Cooper Peter Cooper Peter Cooper was an American industrialist, inventor, philanthropist, and candidate for President of the United States... |
1876 | Samuel J. Tilden Samuel J. Tilden Samuel Jones Tilden was the Democratic candidate for the U.S. presidency in the disputed election of 1876, one of the most controversial American elections of the 19th century. He was the 25th Governor of New York... |
Rutherford B. Hayes Rutherford B. Hayes Rutherford Birchard Hayes was the 19th President of the United States . As president, he oversaw the end of Reconstruction and the United States' entry into the Second Industrial Revolution... |
| John St. John | 1884 | James G. Blaine James G. Blaine James Gillespie Blaine was a U.S. Representative, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, U.S. Senator from Maine, two-time Secretary of State... |
Grover Cleveland Grover Cleveland Stephen Grover Cleveland was the 22nd and 24th president of the United States. Cleveland is the only president to serve two non-consecutive terms and therefore is the only individual to be counted twice in the numbering of the presidents... |
| Theodore Roosevelt Theodore Roosevelt Theodore "Teddy" Roosevelt was the 26th President of the United States . He is noted for his exuberant personality, range of interests and achievements, and his leadership of the Progressive Movement, as well as his "cowboy" persona and robust masculinity... |
1912 | William Howard Taft William Howard Taft William Howard Taft was the 27th President of the United States and later the tenth Chief Justice of the United States... |
Woodrow Wilson Woodrow Wilson Thomas Woodrow Wilson was the 28th President of the United States, from 1913 to 1921. A leader of the Progressive Movement, he served as President of Princeton University from 1902 to 1910, and then as the Governor of New Jersey from 1911 to 1913... |
| George Wallace George Wallace George Corley Wallace, Jr. was the 45th Governor of Alabama, serving four terms: 1963–1967, 1971–1979 and 1983–1987. "The most influential loser" in 20th-century U.S. politics, according to biographers Dan T. Carter and Stephan Lesher, he ran for U.S... |
1968 | Hubert Humphrey Hubert Humphrey Hubert Horatio Humphrey, Jr. , served under President Lyndon B. Johnson as the 38th Vice President of the United States. Humphrey twice served as a United States Senator from Minnesota, and served as Democratic Majority Whip. He was a founder of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and... |
Richard Nixon Richard Nixon Richard Milhous Nixon was the 37th President of the United States, serving from 1969 to 1974. The only president to resign the office, Nixon had previously served as a US representative and senator from California and as the 36th Vice President of the United States from 1953 to 1961 under... |
| Ross Perot Ross Perot Henry Ross Perot is a U.S. businessman best known for running for President of the United States in 1992 and 1996. Perot founded Electronic Data Systems in 1962, sold the company to General Motors in 1984, and founded Perot Systems in 1988... |
1992 | George H. W. Bush George H. W. Bush George Herbert Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 41st President of the United States . He had previously served as the 43rd Vice President of the United States , a congressman, an ambassador, and Director of Central Intelligence.Bush was born in Milton, Massachusetts, to... |
Bill Clinton Bill Clinton William Jefferson "Bill" Clinton is an American politician who served as the 42nd President of the United States from 1993 to 2001. Inaugurated at age 46, he was the third-youngest president. He took office at the end of the Cold War, and was the first president of the baby boomer generation... |
| Ross Perot Ross Perot Henry Ross Perot is a U.S. businessman best known for running for President of the United States in 1992 and 1996. Perot founded Electronic Data Systems in 1962, sold the company to General Motors in 1984, and founded Perot Systems in 1988... |
1996 | Bob Dole Bob Dole Robert Joseph "Bob" Dole is an American attorney and politician. Dole represented Kansas in the United States Senate from 1969 to 1996, was Gerald Ford's Vice Presidential running mate in the 1976 presidential election, and was Senate Majority Leader from 1985 to 1987 and in 1995 and 1996... |
Bill Clinton Bill Clinton William Jefferson "Bill" Clinton is an American politician who served as the 42nd President of the United States from 1993 to 2001. Inaugurated at age 46, he was the third-youngest president. He took office at the end of the Cold War, and was the first president of the baby boomer generation... |
| Ralph Nader Ralph Nader Ralph Nader is an American political activist, as well as an author, lecturer, and attorney. Areas of particular concern to Nader include consumer protection, humanitarianism, environmentalism, and democratic government.... |
2000 | Al Gore Al Gore Albert Arnold "Al" Gore, Jr. served as the 45th Vice President of the United States , under President Bill Clinton. He was the Democratic Party's nominee for President in the 2000 U.S. presidential election.... |
George W. Bush George W. Bush George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000.... |
Other elections
- In 1994 moderate Republican Marshall ColemanMarshall ColemanJ. Marshall Coleman is a Republican politician in Virginia who ran for several statewide offices between the late 1970s and early 1990s.-Life:...
ran for the U.S. Senate as an independent, receiving over 11 percent of the vote in an election where Democrat Chuck RobbChuck RobbCharles Spittal "Chuck" Robb is an American politician. He served as the 64th Governor of Virginia from 1982 to 1986, and as a United States senator from 1989 until 2001. In 2004, he chaired the Iraq Intelligence Commission.-Early life:...
defeated Republican nominee Oliver NorthOliver NorthOliver Laurence North is a retired U.S. Marine Corps officer, political commentator, host of War Stories with Oliver North on Fox News Channel, a military historian, and a New York Times best-selling author....
by only three percent of the vote.
- As a result of the 2011 Wisconsin protests2011 Wisconsin protestsThe 2011 Wisconsin protests were a series of demonstrations in the state of Wisconsin in the United States beginning in February involving at its zenith as many as 100,000 protestors opposing the Wisconsin Budget Repair Bill. Subsequently, anti-tax activists and other conservatives, including tea...
and subsequent recall electionRecall electionA recall election is a procedure by which voters can remove an elected official from office through a direct vote before his or her term has ended...
s, the Wisconsin Republican Party is openly encouraging spoiler candidates to run in the recall elections on the Democrat ticket in order to force the Democrats into a Primary electionPrimary electionA primary election is an election in which party members or voters select candidates for a subsequent election. Primary elections are one means by which a political party nominates candidates for the next general election....
. Republicans argue that this will even the playing field in the recalls, as incumbents facing recall will not have the time to campaign due to their work load in the state senateWisconsin State SenateThe Wisconsin Senate, the powers of which are modeled after those of the U.S. Senate, is the upper house of the Wisconsin State Legislature, smaller than the Wisconsin State Assembly...
.
Other countries
The spoiler effect has also been seen in other countries, such as Trinidad and TobagoTrinidad and Tobago
Trinidad and Tobago officially the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago is an archipelagic state in the southern Caribbean, lying just off the coast of northeastern Venezuela and south of Grenada in the Lesser Antilles...
. There, a minority party with no chance of winning, Congress of the People
Congress of the People (Trinidad and Tobago)
The Congress of the People is a political party in Trinidad and Tobago. It is led by Prakash Ramadhar . Its symbol is the "Circle of Circles".- History :...
, took votes from its former party, the United National Congress
United National Congress
The United National Congress is one of the two major political parties in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago and one of the parties in the current ruling coalition. It was founded by Basdeo Panday, a lawyer and former trade unionist. The UNC was formed as the result of a split in the ruling...
and made it lose seats, thus allowing the incumbent
Incumbent
The incumbent, in politics, is the existing holder of a political office. This term is usually used in reference to elections, in which races can often be defined as being between an incumbent and non-incumbent. For example, in the 2004 United States presidential election, George W...
People's National Movement
People's National Movement
The People's National Movement is the present-day opposition political party in Trinidad and Tobago. Founded in 1955 by Eric Williams, it won the 1956 General Elections and went on to hold power for an unbroken 30 years. After the death of Williams in 1981 George Chambers led the party...
, highly disfavoured for the elections, to take the Government role again.
In New Zealand, there have been two notable cases of the spoiler effect. In the 1984 general election
New Zealand general election, 1984
The 1984 New Zealand general election was a nationwide vote to determine the shape of the 41st New Zealand Parliament. It marked the beginning of the Fourth Labour Government, with David Lange's Labour Party defeating long-serving Prime Minister Robert Muldoon of the National Party. It was also the...
, the free-market New Zealand Party
New Zealand Party
width=300|thumb|Party logoThe New Zealand Party was a political party operating in New Zealand. It was established by millionaire property tycoon Bob Jones, and promoted both social and economic liberalization. The New Zealand Party's motto was "Freedom and Prosperity", and it has sometimes been...
deliberately ran for office in order to weaken support for the incumbent Prime Minister Robert Muldoon
Robert Muldoon
Sir Robert David "Rob" Muldoon, GCMG, CH served as the 31st Prime Minister of New Zealand from 1975 to 1984, as leader of the governing National Party. Muldoon had been a prominent member of the National party and MP for the Tamaki electorate for some years prior to becoming leader of the party...
. Later on, the 1993 general election
New Zealand general election, 1993
The 1993 New Zealand general election was held on 6 November 1993 to determine the composition of the 44th New Zealand Parliament. It saw the governing National Party, led by Jim Bolger, win a second term in office, despite a major swing back towards the Labour Party. The new Alliance and New...
saw the New Zealand Labour Party
New Zealand Labour Party
The New Zealand Labour Party is a New Zealand political party. It describes itself as centre-left and socially progressive and has been one of the two primary parties of New Zealand politics since 1935....
's vote split by The Alliance, which has been attributed to the vagaries of the first past the post electoral system.
Sports
In sports, the "spoiler effect" refers to a similar phenomenon, in which a team or individual has failed to win enough games or competitions to make the playoffs or qualification rounds like the finals, but affects the playoffs or finals anyway by beating a more successful team or individual before the end of the season. For example, a baseball team that is ten games out of contention for a playoff berth could defeat a team that has a playoff berth several times. This could cause the would-be playoff team to be passed by in the rankings by the team directly behind it before the final positions at the end of the season are determined.In individual participant sports, such as automobile racing, a racer with no hope of obtaining a championship title could prevent a racer with a chance at the title by defeating them, preventing the contending racer from earning critical points toward winning the title. Instead, the title would go to the contender directly behind him in the rankings, provided that second-tier racer is close enough to surpass and they win their own competition.