Bellwether
Encyclopedia
A bellwether is any entity in a given arena that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings.
The term is derived from the Middle English
bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell
around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading his flock of sheep.
The movements of the flock could be noted by hearing the bell before the flock was in sight.
, the term is more often applied in the passive sense to describe a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm
those of a wider area, such that the result of an election
in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster
-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can mirror in its popular vote the result on a national scale.
n federal elections, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro
in New South Wales has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election since 1972. The Division of Robertson
in NSW has voted for the party winning government at every federal election since 1983
. The Division of Lindsay
in NSW, and the Division of Makin
in South Australia have elected their members of parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since their creation in 1984. They are the only existing divisions in the country to have such a bellwether title. However in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro
, Lindsay
, Robertson
and Makin
have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election. The state of New South Wales
could also be considered a bellwether, as the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives
seats in that state at every election since 1963. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.
province of Ontario
, Sarnia-Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) have voted for the winning party in every federal election beginning with 1963
. Also in Ontario, Peterborough
has been won by the party who has won the most seats overall in provincial elections since 1977.
electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote
. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil
TD
s in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael
and Labour
TDs when those parties formed the government, since the 1981 general election
.
(Hamilton East
and Hamilton West
), as well as the Northcote electorate
on Auckland's
North Shore.
have been closest to the national results for three consecutive elections, a fact often highlighted by media through Gallup Polls showing voting intentions in the area.
have been subject to frequent review since the late 1960s, particularly those of the House of Commons. Few constituencies are unchanged from one review to another. Therefore, true bellwethers are rare. However, it is possible to match new constituencies to old ones according to the destination of the bulk of the old electorate.
In the United Kingdom
, the Dartford constituency
has reflected the overall result in every General Election
since 1964 and the Basildon constituency
has reflected every result since its creation in 1974. Gravesham
and its predecessor Gravesend
had a perfect record of voting for the winning party or the one with the largest share of the vote in every election from the First World War except for 2005, when they voted Conservative with Labour winning the election. Bristol North West is also considered something of a bellwether, with its voters having elected the candidate of the winning party in every election since October 1974, though it failed to do so on a number of occasions prior to this.
Luton South and its predecessors the Luton East
and Luton
constituencies have elected an MP from the winning party in each election since the 1951 general election
until 2010.
, 2003
and 2007
Scottish Parliament
elections, the constituencies of Cunninghame North
, Dundee West
, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh
, Fife Central, Glasgow Govan
, Kilmarnock & Loudoun
, Livingston
, Stirling
, Western Isles
all elected an MSP from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall. Following boundary changes for the 2011 election
, the successor constituencies to all the above seats maintained this trend.
, Nevada
has produced the same outcome as the national results in every presidential election
beginning in 1912
, except in 1976
, thus voting for the winner 96.0% of the time. Ohio
is the second closest with a match rate of 93.1%. Missouri
, often referred to as the Missouri bellwether
, was for many years the best match of the national results, but since 2008
is now third closest with a 92.6% match rate.
The American bellwether states (with respect to presidential elections) currently are:
In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984
on (100.0%). Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts a straw vote
on local election day.
A list of the top 50 American bellwether counties between 1980 and 2004 is available here.
, a bellwether (barometer stock in the UK) is the stock of a company
that is regarded as a leader in its given industry. The performance of the stock is said to reflect the performance of the industry in general. These stocks are used as barometers for the rest of the market. JPMorgan Chase is an example of a bellwether stock. As one of the major banks in the US, it sets the tone for the rest of the industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market.
, the term is applied in the active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence or set trends.
(IPA).
The term is derived from the Middle English
Middle English
Middle English is the stage in the history of the English language during the High and Late Middle Ages, or roughly during the four centuries between the late 11th and the late 15th century....
bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell
Bell (instrument)
A bell is a simple sound-making device. The bell is a percussion instrument and an idiophone. Its form is usually a hollow, cup-shaped object, which resonates upon being struck...
around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading his flock of sheep.
The movements of the flock could be noted by hearing the bell before the flock was in sight.
Politics
In politicsPolitics
Politics is a process by which groups of people make collective decisions. The term is generally applied to the art or science of running governmental or state affairs, including behavior within civil governments, but also applies to institutions, fields, and special interest groups such as the...
, the term is more often applied in the passive sense to describe a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm
Macrocosm and microcosm
Macrocosm and microcosm is an ancient Greek Neo-Platonic schema of seeing the same patterns reproduced in all levels of the cosmos, from the largest scale all the way down to the smallest scale...
those of a wider area, such that the result of an election
Election
An election is a formal decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy operates since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the...
in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster
Westminster System
The Westminster system is a democratic parliamentary system of government modelled after the politics of the United Kingdom. This term comes from the Palace of Westminster, the seat of the Parliament of the United Kingdom....
-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can mirror in its popular vote the result on a national scale.
Australia
In AustraliaAustralia
Australia , officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a country in the Southern Hemisphere comprising the mainland of the Australian continent, the island of Tasmania, and numerous smaller islands in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. It is the world's sixth-largest country by total area...
n federal elections, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro
Division of Eden-Monaro
The Division of Eden-Monaro is anAustralian Electoral Division in New South Wales.The division was created in 1900, and was one of the original 75 divisions contested at the first federal election. It is named for the town of Eden and the Monaro district of southern New South Wales...
in New South Wales has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election since 1972. The Division of Robertson
Division of Robertson
The Division of Robertson is an Australian Electoral Division in the state of New South Wales. The Division is located on the Central Coast, immediately north of the Hawkesbury River. It encompasses the towns of Woy Woy, Gosford and Terrigal....
in NSW has voted for the party winning government at every federal election since 1983
Australian federal election, 1983
Federal elections were held in Australia on 5 March 1983. All 125 seats in the House of Representatives, and all 64 seats in the Senate, were up for election, following a double dissolution...
. The Division of Lindsay
Division of Lindsay
The Division of Lindsay is an Australian Electoral Division in the state of New South Wales. It is located in the outer western suburbs of Sydney, and is centred around Penrith. It also includes the suburbs of Castlereagh, Mulgoa and Werrington....
in NSW, and the Division of Makin
Division of Makin
The Division of Makin is an electoral division for the Australian House of Representatives located in the northeastern suburbs of Adelaide. Established in 1984 and named after Norman Makin, a former MP and diplomat, it has been a marginal seat at most elections since...
in South Australia have elected their members of parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since their creation in 1984. They are the only existing divisions in the country to have such a bellwether title. However in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro
Division of Eden-Monaro
The Division of Eden-Monaro is anAustralian Electoral Division in New South Wales.The division was created in 1900, and was one of the original 75 divisions contested at the first federal election. It is named for the town of Eden and the Monaro district of southern New South Wales...
, Lindsay
Division of Lindsay
The Division of Lindsay is an Australian Electoral Division in the state of New South Wales. It is located in the outer western suburbs of Sydney, and is centred around Penrith. It also includes the suburbs of Castlereagh, Mulgoa and Werrington....
, Robertson
Division of Robertson
The Division of Robertson is an Australian Electoral Division in the state of New South Wales. The Division is located on the Central Coast, immediately north of the Hawkesbury River. It encompasses the towns of Woy Woy, Gosford and Terrigal....
and Makin
Division of Makin
The Division of Makin is an electoral division for the Australian House of Representatives located in the northeastern suburbs of Adelaide. Established in 1984 and named after Norman Makin, a former MP and diplomat, it has been a marginal seat at most elections since...
have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election. The state of New South Wales
New South Wales
New South Wales is a state of :Australia, located in the east of the country. It is bordered by Queensland, Victoria and South Australia to the north, south and west respectively. To the east, the state is bordered by the Tasman Sea, which forms part of the Pacific Ocean. New South Wales...
could also be considered a bellwether, as the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives
Australian House of Representatives
The House of Representatives is one of the two houses of the Parliament of Australia; it is the lower house; the upper house is the Senate. Members of Parliament serve for terms of approximately three years....
seats in that state at every election since 1963. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.
Canada
In the CanadianCanada
Canada is a North American country consisting of ten provinces and three territories. Located in the northern part of the continent, it extends from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west, and northward into the Arctic Ocean...
province of Ontario
Ontario
Ontario is a province of Canada, located in east-central Canada. It is Canada's most populous province and second largest in total area. It is home to the nation's most populous city, Toronto, and the nation's capital, Ottawa....
, Sarnia-Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) have voted for the winning party in every federal election beginning with 1963
Canadian federal election, 1963
The Canadian federal election of 1963 was held on April 8 to elect members of the Canadian House of Commons of the 26th Parliament of Canada. It resulted in the defeat of the minority Progressive Conservative government of Prime Minister John Diefenbaker.-Overview:During the Tories' last year in...
. Also in Ontario, Peterborough
Peterborough (electoral district)
Peterborough is a federal electoral district in Ontario, Canada, that has been represented in the Canadian House of Commons since 1953.The riding's borders have differed slightly since its creation in 1953, but has always included most or all of Peterborough County and its county seat of...
has been won by the party who has won the most seats overall in provincial elections since 1977.
Ireland
Ireland has a proportional representationProportional representation
Proportional representation is a concept in voting systems used to elect an assembly or council. PR means that the number of seats won by a party or group of candidates is proportionate to the number of votes received. For example, under a PR voting system if 30% of voters support a particular...
electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote
Single transferable vote
The single transferable vote is a voting system designed to achieve proportional representation through preferential voting. Under STV, an elector's vote is initially allocated to his or her most preferred candidate, and then, after candidates have been either elected or eliminated, any surplus or...
. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil
Fianna Fáil
Fianna Fáil – The Republican Party , more commonly known as Fianna Fáil is a centrist political party in the Republic of Ireland, founded on 23 March 1926. Fianna Fáil's name is traditionally translated into English as Soldiers of Destiny, although a more accurate rendition would be Warriors of Fál...
TD
Teachta Dála
A Teachta Dála , usually abbreviated as TD in English, is a member of Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Oireachtas . It is the equivalent of terms such as "Member of Parliament" or "deputy" used in other states. The official translation of the term is "Deputy to the Dáil", though a more literal...
s in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael
Fine Gael
Fine Gael is a centre-right to centrist political party in the Republic of Ireland. It is the single largest party in Ireland in the Oireachtas, in local government, and in terms of Members of the European Parliament. The party has a membership of over 35,000...
and Labour
Labour Party (Ireland)
The Labour Party is a social-democratic political party in the Republic of Ireland. The Labour Party was founded in 1912 in Clonmel, County Tipperary, by James Connolly, James Larkin and William X. O'Brien as the political wing of the Irish Trade Union Congress. Unlike the other main Irish...
TDs when those parties formed the government, since the 1981 general election
Irish general election, 1981
The Irish general election of 1981 was held on 11 June 1981, three weeks after the dissolution of the Dáil on 21 May. The newly elected 166 members of the 22nd Dáil assembled at Leinster House on 30 June when a new Taoiseach and government were appointed....
.
New Zealand
There are three generally accepted bellwether electorates in New Zealand, being both the electorates of HamiltonHamilton, New Zealand
Hamilton is the centre of New Zealand's fourth largest urban area, and Hamilton City is the country's fourth largest territorial authority. Hamilton is in the Waikato Region of the North Island, approximately south of Auckland...
(Hamilton East
Hamilton East (New Zealand electorate)
Hamilton East is a New Zealand Parliamentary electorate.It is currently held by David Bennett MP of the National Party.-Population centres:...
and Hamilton West
Hamilton West (New Zealand electorate)
Hamilton West is a New Zealand Parliamentary electorate.It has been held by Tim Macindoe MP of the National Party since the 2008 general election.-Population centres:...
), as well as the Northcote electorate
Northcote (New Zealand electorate)
Northcote is a New Zealand Parliamentary electorate, returning one Member of Parliament to the New Zealand House of Representatives. The current MP for Northcote is Jonathan Coleman of the National Party. He has held this position since 2005....
on Auckland's
Auckland Region
The Auckland Region was one of the sixteen regions of New Zealand, named for the city of Auckland, the country's largest urban area. With one third of the nation's residents, it was by far the biggest population and economy of any region of New Zealand, but the second-smallest land area.On 1...
North Shore.
Sweden
According to Statistics Sweden, election results in KarlstadKarlstad
Karlstad is a city, the seat of Karlstad Municipality, the capital of Värmland County, and the largest city in the province Värmland in Sweden. The city had 61,685 inhabitants in 2010 out of a municipal total that during the first quarter 2010 was 84,885 inhabitants...
have been closest to the national results for three consecutive elections, a fact often highlighted by media through Gallup Polls showing voting intentions in the area.
United Kingdom
United Kingdom constituenciesUnited Kingdom constituencies
In the United Kingdom , each of the electoral areas or divisions called constituencies elects one or more members to a parliament or assembly.Within the United Kingdom there are now five bodies with members elected by constituencies:...
have been subject to frequent review since the late 1960s, particularly those of the House of Commons. Few constituencies are unchanged from one review to another. Therefore, true bellwethers are rare. However, it is possible to match new constituencies to old ones according to the destination of the bulk of the old electorate.
In the United Kingdom
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...
, the Dartford constituency
Dartford (UK Parliament constituency)
-Elections in the 2000s:-Elections in the 1990s:-Notes and references:...
has reflected the overall result in every General Election
General election
In a parliamentary political system, a general election is an election in which all or most members of a given political body are chosen. The term is usually used to refer to elections held for a nation's primary legislative body, as distinguished from by-elections and local elections.The term...
since 1964 and the Basildon constituency
Basildon (UK Parliament constituency)
Basildon was a parliamentary constituency represented in the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. It elected one Member of Parliament by the first past the post system of election....
has reflected every result since its creation in 1974. Gravesham
Gravesham (UK Parliament constituency)
Gravesham is a county constituency represented in the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. It elects one Member of Parliament by the first past the post system of election...
and its predecessor Gravesend
Gravesend (UK Parliament constituency)
Gravesend was a county constituency centred on the town of Gravesend, Kent which returned one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom from 1868 until it was abolished for the 1983 general election....
had a perfect record of voting for the winning party or the one with the largest share of the vote in every election from the First World War except for 2005, when they voted Conservative with Labour winning the election. Bristol North West is also considered something of a bellwether, with its voters having elected the candidate of the winning party in every election since October 1974, though it failed to do so on a number of occasions prior to this.
Luton South and its predecessors the Luton East
Luton East (UK Parliament constituency)
Luton East is a former United Kingdom Parliamentary constituency. It was created upon the abolition of the Luton constituency in 1974 and, with Luton West, divided into Luton North and Luton South in 1983.-Members of Parliament:...
and Luton
Luton (UK Parliament constituency)
Luton was a parliamentary constituency centred on the town of Luton in Bedfordshire. It returned one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, elected by the first past the post system....
constituencies have elected an MP from the winning party in each election since the 1951 general election
United Kingdom general election, 1951
The 1951 United Kingdom general election was held eighteen months after the 1950 general election, which the Labour Party had won with a slim majority of just five seats...
until 2010.
Scottish Parliament
In the 1999Scottish Parliament election, 1999
The Scottish Parliament election, 1999 was the first general election of the Scottish Parliament, with voting taking place on 6 May 1999 to elect 129 members...
, 2003
Scottish Parliament election, 2003
The Scottish Parliament election, 2003, was the second general election of the Scottish Parliament. It was held on 1 May 2003 and it brought no change in terms of control of the Scottish Executive...
and 2007
Scottish Parliament election, 2007
The 2007 Scottish Parliament election was held on Thursday 3 May 2007 to elect members to the Scottish Parliament. It was the third general election to the devolved Scottish Parliament since it was created in 1999...
Scottish Parliament
Scottish Parliament
The Scottish Parliament is the devolved national, unicameral legislature of Scotland, located in the Holyrood area of the capital, Edinburgh. The Parliament, informally referred to as "Holyrood", is a democratically elected body comprising 129 members known as Members of the Scottish Parliament...
elections, the constituencies of Cunninghame North
Cunninghame North (Scottish Parliament constituency)
Cunninghame North is a constituency of the Scottish Parliament. It elects one MSP by the first past the post method of election once every four years...
, Dundee West
Dundee West (Scottish Parliament constituency)
Dundee West is a constituency of the Scottish Parliament . It elects one Member of the Scottish Parliament by the first past the post method of election...
, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh (Scottish Parliament constituency)
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh is a constituency of the Scottish Parliament . It elects one Member of the Scottish Parliament by the plurality method of election...
, Fife Central, Glasgow Govan
Glasgow Govan (Scottish Parliament constituency)
Glasgow Govan was a constituency of the Scottish Parliament . It elected one Member of the Scottish Parliament by the plurality method of election....
, Kilmarnock & Loudoun
Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Scottish Parliament constituency)
Kilmarnock and Loudoun was a constituency of the Scottish Parliament . It elected one Member of the Scottish Parliament by the plurality method of election....
, Livingston
Livingston (Scottish Parliament constituency)
Livingston was a constituency of the Scottish Parliament . It elected one Member of the Scottish Parliament by the plurality method of election....
, Stirling
Stirling (Scottish Parliament constituency)
Stirling is a constituency of the Scottish Parliament . It elects one Member of the Scottish Parliament by the plurality method of election...
, Western Isles
Western Isles (Scottish Parliament constituency)
Na h-Eileanan an Iar is a constituency of the Scottish Parliament . It elects one Member of the Scottish Parliament by the first past the post method of election...
all elected an MSP from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall. Following boundary changes for the 2011 election
Scottish Parliament election, 2011
The 2011 Scottish Parliament general election was held on Thursday, 5 May 2011 to elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament.The election delivered the first majority government since the opening of Holyrood, a remarkable feat as the mixed member proportional representation system is used to...
, the successor constituencies to all the above seats maintained this trend.
States
In the United StatesUnited States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
, Nevada
Nevada
Nevada is a state in the western, mountain west, and southwestern regions of the United States. With an area of and a population of about 2.7 million, it is the 7th-largest and 35th-most populous state. Over two-thirds of Nevada's people live in the Las Vegas metropolitan area, which contains its...
has produced the same outcome as the national results in every presidential election
United States presidential election
Elections for President and Vice President of the United States are indirect elections in which voters cast ballots for a slate of electors of the U.S. Electoral College, who in turn directly elect the President and Vice President...
beginning in 1912
United States presidential election, 1912
The United States presidential election of 1912 was a rare four-way contest. Incumbent President William Howard Taft was renominated by the Republican Party with the support of its conservative wing. After former President Theodore Roosevelt failed to receive the Republican nomination, he called...
, except in 1976
United States presidential election, 1976
The United States presidential election of 1976 followed the resignation of President Richard Nixon in the wake of the Watergate scandal. It pitted incumbent President Gerald Ford, the Republican candidate, against the relatively unknown former governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter, the Democratic...
, thus voting for the winner 96.0% of the time. Ohio
Ohio
Ohio is a Midwestern state in the United States. The 34th largest state by area in the U.S.,it is the 7th‑most populous with over 11.5 million residents, containing several major American cities and seven metropolitan areas with populations of 500,000 or more.The state's capital is Columbus...
is the second closest with a match rate of 93.1%. Missouri
Missouri
Missouri is a US state located in the Midwestern United States, bordered by Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska. With a 2010 population of 5,988,927, Missouri is the 18th most populous state in the nation and the fifth most populous in the Midwest. It...
, often referred to as the Missouri bellwether
Missouri bellwether
The Missouri bellwether is a political phenomenon that notes that the state of Missouri voted for the winner in all but two U.S. Presidential election since 1904 . While states like Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico have been arguably stronger indicators of political trends in recent years,...
, was for many years the best match of the national results, but since 2008
United States presidential election, 2008
The United States presidential election of 2008 was the 56th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on November 4, 2008. Democrat Barack Obama, then the junior United States Senator from Illinois, defeated Republican John McCain, the senior U.S. Senator from Arizona. Obama received 365...
is now third closest with a 92.6% match rate.
The American bellwether states (with respect to presidential elections) currently are:
- NevadaNevadaNevada is a state in the western, mountain west, and southwestern regions of the United States. With an area of and a population of about 2.7 million, it is the 7th-largest and 35th-most populous state. Over two-thirds of Nevada's people live in the Las Vegas metropolitan area, which contains its...
- 1 miss (1976United States presidential election, 1976The United States presidential election of 1976 followed the resignation of President Richard Nixon in the wake of the Watergate scandal. It pitted incumbent President Gerald Ford, the Republican candidate, against the relatively unknown former governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter, the Democratic...
) from 1912United States presidential election, 1912The United States presidential election of 1912 was a rare four-way contest. Incumbent President William Howard Taft was renominated by the Republican Party with the support of its conservative wing. After former President Theodore Roosevelt failed to receive the Republican nomination, he called...
on (96.0%, slightly "too RepublicanRepublican Party (United States)The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Democratic Party. Founded by anti-slavery expansion activists in 1854, it is often called the GOP . The party's platform generally reflects American conservatism in the U.S...
"). - OhioOhioOhio is a Midwestern state in the United States. The 34th largest state by area in the U.S.,it is the 7th‑most populous with over 11.5 million residents, containing several major American cities and seven metropolitan areas with populations of 500,000 or more.The state's capital is Columbus...
- 2 misses (1944United States presidential election, 1944The United States presidential election of 1944 took place while the United States was preoccupied with fighting World War II. President Franklin D. Roosevelt had been in office longer than any other president, but remained popular. Unlike 1940, there was little doubt that Roosevelt would run for...
, 1960United States presidential election, 1960The United States presidential election of 1960 was the 44th American presidential election, held on November 8, 1960, for the term beginning January 20, 1961, and ending January 20, 1965. The incumbent president, Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower, was not eligible to run again. The Republican Party...
) from 1896United States presidential election, 1896The United States presidential election held on November 3, 1896, saw Republican William McKinley defeat Democrat William Jennings Bryan in a campaign considered by political scientists to be one of the most dramatic and complex in American history....
on (93.1%, slightly "too Republican"). - MissouriMissouriMissouri is a US state located in the Midwestern United States, bordered by Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska. With a 2010 population of 5,988,927, Missouri is the 18th most populous state in the nation and the fifth most populous in the Midwest. It...
- 2 misses (1956United States presidential election, 1956The United States presidential election of 1956 saw a popular Dwight D. Eisenhower successfully run for re-election. The 1956 election was a rematch of 1952, as Eisenhower's opponent in 1956 was Democrat Adlai Stevenson, whom Eisenhower had defeated four years earlier.Incumbent President Eisenhower...
, 2008United States presidential election, 2008The United States presidential election of 2008 was the 56th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on November 4, 2008. Democrat Barack Obama, then the junior United States Senator from Illinois, defeated Republican John McCain, the senior U.S. Senator from Arizona. Obama received 365...
) from 1904United States presidential election, 1904The United States presidential election of 1904 held on November 8, 1904, resulted in the election to a full term for President Theodore Roosevelt. Roosevelt had succeeded to the presidency upon the assassination of William McKinley. The Republican Party unanimously nominated him for president at...
on (92.6%, "neutral"). - New MexicoNew MexicoNew Mexico is a state located in the southwest and western regions of the United States. New Mexico is also usually considered one of the Mountain States. With a population density of 16 per square mile, New Mexico is the sixth-most sparsely inhabited U.S...
- 2 misses (1976United States presidential election, 1976The United States presidential election of 1976 followed the resignation of President Richard Nixon in the wake of the Watergate scandal. It pitted incumbent President Gerald Ford, the Republican candidate, against the relatively unknown former governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter, the Democratic...
, 2000United States presidential election, 2000The United States presidential election of 2000 was a contest between Republican candidate George W. Bush, then-governor of Texas and son of former president George H. W. Bush , and Democratic candidate Al Gore, then-Vice President....
) from 1912United States presidential election, 1912The United States presidential election of 1912 was a rare four-way contest. Incumbent President William Howard Taft was renominated by the Republican Party with the support of its conservative wing. After former President Theodore Roosevelt failed to receive the Republican nomination, he called...
on (92%, "neutral"). - FloridaFloridaFlorida is a state in the southeastern United States, located on the nation's Atlantic and Gulf coasts. It is bordered to the west by the Gulf of Mexico, to the north by Alabama and Georgia and to the east by the Atlantic Ocean. With a population of 18,801,310 as measured by the 2010 census, it...
- 2 misses (1960United States presidential election, 1960The United States presidential election of 1960 was the 44th American presidential election, held on November 8, 1960, for the term beginning January 20, 1961, and ending January 20, 1965. The incumbent president, Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower, was not eligible to run again. The Republican Party...
, 1992United States presidential election, 1992The United States presidential election of 1992 had three major candidates: Incumbent Republican President George Bush; Democratic Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, and independent Texas businessman Ross Perot....
) from 1928United States presidential election, 1928The United States presidential election of 1928 pitted Republican Herbert Hoover against Democrat Al Smith. The Republicans were identified with the booming economy of the 1920s, whereas Smith, a Roman Catholic, suffered politically from Anti-Catholic prejudice, his anti-prohibitionist stance, and...
on (90.5%, slightly "too Republican"). - TennesseeTennesseeTennessee is a U.S. state located in the Southeastern United States. It has a population of 6,346,105, making it the nation's 17th-largest state by population, and covers , making it the 36th-largest by total land area...
- 2 misses (1960United States presidential election, 1960The United States presidential election of 1960 was the 44th American presidential election, held on November 8, 1960, for the term beginning January 20, 1961, and ending January 20, 1965. The incumbent president, Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower, was not eligible to run again. The Republican Party...
, 2008United States presidential election, 2008The United States presidential election of 2008 was the 56th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on November 4, 2008. Democrat Barack Obama, then the junior United States Senator from Illinois, defeated Republican John McCain, the senior U.S. Senator from Arizona. Obama received 365...
) from 1928United States presidential election, 1928The United States presidential election of 1928 pitted Republican Herbert Hoover against Democrat Al Smith. The Republicans were identified with the booming economy of the 1920s, whereas Smith, a Roman Catholic, suffered politically from Anti-Catholic prejudice, his anti-prohibitionist stance, and...
on (90.5%, slightly "too Republican"). - DelawareDelawareDelaware is a U.S. state located on the Atlantic Coast in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. It is bordered to the south and west by Maryland, and to the north by Pennsylvania...
- 2 misses (2000United States presidential election, 2000The United States presidential election of 2000 was a contest between Republican candidate George W. Bush, then-governor of Texas and son of former president George H. W. Bush , and Democratic candidate Al Gore, then-Vice President....
, 2004United States presidential election, 2004The United States presidential election of 2004 was the United States' 55th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2004. Republican Party candidate and incumbent President George W. Bush defeated Democratic Party candidate John Kerry, the then-junior U.S. Senator...
) from 1952United States presidential election, 1952The United States presidential election of 1952 took place in an era when Cold War tension between the United States and the Soviet Union was escalating rapidly. In the United States Senate, Republican Senator Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin had become a national figure after chairing congressional...
on (86.7%, slightly "too DemocraticDemocratic Party (United States)The Democratic Party is one of two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Republican Party. The party's socially liberal and progressive platform is largely considered center-left in the U.S. political spectrum. The party has the lengthiest record of continuous...
"). The state of Delaware voted for the winner of the popular vote in 2000.
In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984
United States presidential election, 1984
The United States presidential election of 1984 was a contest between the incumbent President Ronald Reagan, the Republican candidate, and former Vice President Walter Mondale, the Democratic candidate. Reagan was helped by a strong economic recovery from the deep recession of 1981–1982...
on (100.0%). Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts a straw vote
Straw poll
A straw poll or straw vote is a vote with nonbinding results. Straw polls provide dialogue among movements within large groups, reflecting trends like organization and motivation...
on local election day.
Counties
American bellwether counties include:- Vigo County, IndianaVigo County, IndianaVigo County is a county located along the western border of the U.S. state of Indiana. Vigo County is included in the Terre Haute, Indiana, Metropolitan Statistical Area. The county seat is Terre Haute....
(county seat: Terre Haute) - 2 misses (1908, 1952) from 1892 on, perfect since 1956 Since 1960, Vigo County had been within 3 percent of the national presidential vote every election. In 2008, Vigo County again voted with the winner, but Obama's percentage of 57.3% was about 4.4% above Obama's national vote.
- Bexar County, TexasBexar County, TexasAs of the census of 2000, there were 1,392,931 people, 488,942 households, and 345,681 families residing in the county. The population density was 1,117 people per square mile . There were 521,359 housing units at an average density of 418 per square mile...
(county seat: San Antonio) - perfect since 1972.
- Chautauqua County, New YorkChautauqua County, New York-Major highways:* Interstate 86/New York State Route 17 * Interstate 90 * U.S. Route 20* U.S. Route 62* New York State Route 5* New York State Route 39* New York State Route 60* New York State Route 394...
(county seat: MayvilleMayvilleMayville is the name of a number of places in the United States of America:*Mayville, Michigan*Mayville, an unincorporated settlement in Waltham Township, Minnesota*Mayville, New York*Mayville, North Dakota*Mayville, Wisconsin-See also:*Maysville...
) - perfect since 1980, 2 misses since 1960.
A list of the top 50 American bellwether counties between 1980 and 2004 is available here.
Stock market
In the stock marketStock market
A stock market or equity market is a public entity for the trading of company stock and derivatives at an agreed price; these are securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately.The size of the world stock market was estimated at about $36.6 trillion...
, a bellwether (barometer stock in the UK) is the stock of a company
Company
A company is a form of business organization. It is an association or collection of individual real persons and/or other companies, who each provide some form of capital. This group has a common purpose or focus and an aim of gaining profits. This collection, group or association of persons can be...
that is regarded as a leader in its given industry. The performance of the stock is said to reflect the performance of the industry in general. These stocks are used as barometers for the rest of the market. JPMorgan Chase is an example of a bellwether stock. As one of the major banks in the US, it sets the tone for the rest of the industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market.
Sociology
In sociologySociology
Sociology is the study of society. It is a social science—a term with which it is sometimes synonymous—which uses various methods of empirical investigation and critical analysis to develop a body of knowledge about human social activity...
, the term is applied in the active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence or set trends.
Business
Trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry are monitored in the quarterly Bellwether Report, published by the Institute of Practitioners in AdvertisingInstitute of Practitioners in Advertising
The Institute of Practitioners in Advertising is the trade body and professional institute for 250 leading agencies in the UK's advertising, media and marketing communications industry, covering the creative, digital, direct marketing, healthcare, media, outdoor, sales promotion and sponsorship...
(IPA).
See also
- As Maine goes, so goes the nationAs Maine goes, so goes the nation"As Maine goes, so goes the nation" is a phrase that at one time was in wide currency in United States politics. The phrase described Maine's reputation as a bellwether state for presidential elections...
- Will it play in Peoria?Will it play in Peoria?The saying, "Will it play in Peoria?" is traditionally used to ask whether a given product, person, promotional theme, or event will appeal to mainstream America, or across a broad range of demographic and psychographic groups....
- Swing stateSwing stateIn United States presidential politics, a swing state is a state in which no single candidate or party has overwhelming support in securing that state's electoral college votes...
- Early adopter
- Peer-mediated instructionPeer-mediated instructionPeer-mediated instruction is an approach in special education where peers of the target students are trained to provide necessary tutoring in educational, behavioral, and/or social concerns....