(shares) and derivative
s at an agreed price; these are securities
listed on a stock exchange
as well as those only traded privately.
The size of the world stock market was estimated at about $36.6 trillion at the start of October 2008.
Trends are highways to develop further ideas on them, whereas hypes are dead-end roads. Only the first player will profit.
The trend is your friend!
In a bull market|bull market the trend of prices, of course, is decidedly and definitely upward. Therefore whenever a stock goes against the general trend you are justified in assuming that there is something wrong with that particular stock.
The trend has been established before the news is published, and in bull markets bear items are ignored and bull news exaggerated, and vice versa.
(shares) and derivative
s at an agreed price; these are securities
listed on a stock exchange
as well as those only traded privately.
The size of the world stock market was estimated at about $36.6 trillion at the start of October 2008. The total world derivatives market has been estimated at about $791 trillion face or nominal value, 11 times the size of the entire world economy. The value of the derivatives market, because it is stated in terms of notional values
, cannot be directly compared to a stock or a fixed income security, which traditionally refers to an actual value
. Moreover, the vast majority of derivatives 'cancel' each other out (i.e., a derivative 'bet' on an event occurring is offset by a comparable derivative 'bet' on the event not occurring). Many such relatively illiquid securities are valued as marked to model
, rather than an actual market price.
The stocks are listed and traded on stock exchanges which are entities of a corporation or mutual organization
specialized in the business of bringing buyers and sellers of the organizations to a listing of stocks and securities together. The largest stock market in the United States
, by market capitalization, is the New York Stock Exchange
(NYSE). In Canada, the largest stock market is the Toronto Stock Exchange
. Major European examples of stock exchanges include the Amsterdam Stock Exchange
, London Stock Exchange
, Paris Bourse
, and the Deutsche Börse
(Frankfurt Stock Exchange
). In Africa, examples include Nigerian Stock Exchange, JSE Limited, etc. Asian examples include the Singapore Exchange
, the Tokyo Stock Exchange
, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange
, the Shanghai Stock Exchange
, and the Bombay Stock Exchange
. In Latin America, there are such exchanges as the BM&F Bovespa and the BMV.
Market participants include individual retail investors, institutional investors such as mutual funds, banks, insurance companies and hedge funds, and also publicly traded corporations trading in their own shares. Some studies have suggested that institutional investors and corporations trading in their own shares generally receive higher risk-adjusted returns than retail investors.
s, who can be based anywhere. Their orders usually end up with a profession
al at a stock exchange, who executes the order of buying or selling.
Some exchanges are physical locations where transactions are carried out on a trading floor, by a method known as open outcry
. This type of auction
is used in stock exchanges and commodity exchanges
where traders may enter "verbal" bids and offers simultaneously. The other type of stock exchange is a virtual kind, composed of a network of computers where trades are made electronically via traders.
Actual trades are based on an auction market model where a potential buyer bids a specific price for a stock and a potential seller asks a specific price for the stock. (Buying or selling at market means you will accept any ask price or bid price for the stock, respectively.) When the bid and ask prices match, a sale takes place, on a first-come-first-served basis if there are multiple bidders or askers at a given price.
The purpose of a stock exchange is to facilitate the exchange of securities between buyers and sellers, thus providing a marketplace
(virtual or real). The exchanges provide real-time trading information on the listed securities, facilitating price discovery.
The New York Stock Exchange
is a physical exchange, also referred to as a listed exchange – only stocks listed with the exchange may be traded. Orders enter by way of exchange members and flow down to a floor broker
, who goes to the floor trading post specialist
for that stock to trade the order. The specialist's job is to match buy and sell orders using open outcry. If a spread
exists, no trade immediately takes place—in this case the specialist should use his/her own resources (money or stock) to close the difference after his/her judged time. Once a trade has been made the details are reported on the "tape
" and sent back to the brokerage firm, which then notifies the investor who placed the order. Although there is a significant amount of human contact in this process, computers play an important role, especially for so-called "program trading
is a virtual listed exchange, where all of the trading is done over a computer network. The process is similar to the New York Stock Exchange. However, buyers and sellers are electronically matched. One or more NASDAQ market maker
s will always provide a bid and ask price at which they will always purchase or sell 'their' stock.
The Paris Bourse
, now part of Euronext
, is an order-driven, electronic stock exchange. It was automated in the late 1980s. Prior to the 1980s, it consisted of an open outcry exchange. Stockbrokers met on the trading floor or the Palais Brongniart. In 1986, the CATS trading system
was introduced, and the order matching process was fully automated.
From time to time, active trading (especially in large blocks of securities) have moved away from the 'active' exchanges. Securities firms, led by UBS AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group, already steer 12 percent of U.S. security trades away from the exchanges to their internal systems. That share probably will increase to 18 percent by 2010 as more investment banks bypass the NYSE and NASDAQ and pair buyers and sellers of securities themselves, according to data compiled by Boston-based Aite Group LLC, a brokerage-industry consultant.
Now that computers have eliminated the need for trading floors like the Big Board's, the balance of power in equity
markets is shifting. By bringing more orders in-house, where clients can move big blocks of stock anonymously, brokers pay the exchanges less in fees and capture a bigger share of the $11 billion a year that institutional investors pay in trading commission
Market participantsMarket participants include individual retail investors, institutional investors such as mutual funds, banks, insurance companies and hedge funds, and also publicly traded corporations trading in their own shares. Some studies have suggested that institutional investors and corporations trading in their own shares generally receive higher risk-adjusted returns than retail investors.
A few decades ago, worldwide, buyers and sellers were individual investors, such as wealthy businessmen, usually with long family histories to particular corporations. Over time, markets have become more "institutionalized"; buyers and sellers are largely institutions (e.g., pension fund
s, insurance companies, mutual fund
s, index funds, exchange-traded fund
s, hedge funds, investor groups, banks and various other financial institutions).
The rise of the institutional investor
has brought with it some improvements in market operations. Thus, the government was responsible for "fixed" (and exorbitant) fees being markedly reduced for the 'small' investor, but only after the large institutions had managed to break the brokers' solid front on fees. (They then went to 'negotiated' fees, but only for large institutions.)
However, corporate governance
(at least in the West) has been very much adversely affected by the rise of (largely 'absentee') institutional 'owners'.
HistoryIn 12th century France the courratiers de change were concerned with managing and regulating the debts of agricultural communities on behalf of the banks. Because these men also traded with debts, they could be called the first broker
s. A common misbelief is that in late 13th century Bruges
commodity traders gathered inside the house of a man called Van der Beurze, and in 1309 they became the "Brugse Beurse", institutionalizing what had been, until then, an informal meeting, but actually, the family Van der Beurze had a building in Antwerp where those gatherings occurred; the Van der Beurze had Antwerp, as most of the merchants of that period, as their primary place for trading. The idea quickly spread around Flanders
and neighboring counties and "Beurzen" soon opened in Ghent
In the middle of the 13th century, Venetian
bankers began to trade in government securities. In 1351 the Venetian government outlawed spreading rumors intended to lower the price of government funds. Bankers in Pisa
also began trading in government securities during the 14th century. This was only possible because these were independent city states not ruled by a duke but a council of influential citizens. Italian companies were also the first to issue shares. Companies in England and the Low Countries followed in the 16th century. The Dutch East India Company
(founded in 1602) was the first joint-stock company to get a fixed capital stock and as a result, continuous trade in company stock emerged on the Amsterdam Exchange. Soon thereafter, a lively trade in various derivatives
, among which options and repos, emerged on the Amsterdam
market. Dutch traders also pioneered short selling - a practice which was banned by the Dutch authorities as early as 1610.
There are now stock markets in virtually every developed and most developing economies, with the world's largest markets being in the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, India
, China, Canada
, Germany (Frankfurt Stock Exchange
), France, South Korea
and the Netherlands
Function and purpose
. Some companies actively increase liquidity by trading in their own shares.
History has shown that the price of share
s and other assets is an important part of the dynamics of economic activity, and can influence or be an indicator of social mood. An economy where the stock market is on the rise is considered to be an up-and-coming economy. In fact, the stock market is often considered the primary indicator of a country's economic strength and development.
Rising share prices, for instance, tend to be associated with increased business investment and vice versa. Share prices also affect the wealth of households and their consumption. Therefore, central bank
s tend to keep an eye on the control and behavior of the stock market and, in general, on the smooth operation of financial system
functions. Financial stability is the raison d'être of central banks.
Exchanges also act as the clearinghouse for each transaction, meaning that they collect and deliver the shares, and guarantee payment to the seller of a security. This eliminates the risk to an individual buyer or seller that the counterparty
could default on the transaction.
The smooth functioning of all these activities facilitates economic growth
in that lower costs and enterprise risks promote the production of goods and services as well as possibly employment. In this way the financial system is assumed to contribute to increased prosperity.
Relation of the stock market to the modern financial systemThe financial system in most western countries has undergone a remarkable transformation. One feature of this development is disintermediation
. A portion of the funds involved in saving and financing, flows directly to the financial markets instead of being routed via the traditional bank lending and deposit operations. The general public interest in investing in the stock market, either directly or through mutual fund
s, has been an important component of this process.
Statistics show that in recent decades shares have made up an increasingly large proportion of households' financial assets in many countries. In the 1970s, in Sweden
, deposit account
s and other very liquid assets with little risk made up almost 60 percent of households' financial wealth, compared to less than 20 percent in the 2000s. The major part of this adjustment is that financial portfolios have gone directly to shares but a good deal now takes the form of various kinds of institutional investment for groups of individuals, e.g., pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, insurance investment of premiums, etc.
The trend towards forms of saving with a higher risk has been accentuated by new rules for most funds and insurance, permitting a higher proportion of shares to bonds. Similar tendencies are to be found in other industrialized countries. In all developed economic systems, such as the European Union, the United States, Japan and other developed nations, the trend has been the same: saving has moved away from traditional (government insured) bank deposits to more risky securities of one sort or another
United States stock market returns
|Years to Sept. 30 2011||Average Annual Return %||Average Compounded Annual Return %|
The behavior of the stock market
According to one interpretation of the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH), only changes in fundamental factors, such as the outlook for margins, profits or dividends, ought to affect share prices beyond the short term, where random 'noise' in the system may prevail. (But this largely theoretic academic viewpoint—known as 'hard' EMH—also predicts that little or no trading should take place, contrary to fact, since prices are already at or near equilibrium, having priced in all public knowledge.) The 'hard' efficient-market hypothesis is sorely tested by such events as the stock market crash in 1987, when the Dow Jones index plummeted 22.6 percent—the largest-ever one-day fall in the United States.
This event demonstrated that share prices can fall dramatically even though, to this day, it is impossible to fix a generally agreed upon definite cause: a thorough search failed to detect any 'reasonable' development that might have accounted for the crash. (But note that such events are predicted to occur strictly by chance, although very rarely.) It seems also to be the case more generally that many price movements (beyond that which are predicted to occur 'randomly') are not occasioned by new information; a study of the fifty largest one-day share price movements in the United States in the post-war period seems to confirm this.
However, a 'soft' EMH has emerged which does not require that prices remain at or near equilibrium, but only that market participants not be able to systematically profit from any momentary market 'inefficiencies
'. Moreover, while EMH predicts that all price movement (in the absence of change in fundamental information) is random (i.e., non-trending), many studies have shown a marked tendency for the stock market to trend over time periods of weeks or longer. Various explanations for such large and apparently non-random price movements have been promulgated. For instance, some research has shown that changes in estimated risk, and the use of certain strategies, such as stop-loss limits and Value at Risk
limits, theoretically could cause financial markets to overreact. But the best explanation seems to be that the distribution of stock market prices is non-Gaussian (in which case EMH, in any of its current forms, would not be strictly applicable).
Other research has shown that psychological factors may result in exaggerated (statistically anomalous) stock price movements (contrary to EMH which assumes such behaviors 'cancel out'). Psychological research has demonstrated that people are predisposed to 'seeing' patterns, and often will perceive a pattern in what is, in fact, just noise. (Something like seeing familiar shapes in clouds or ink blots.) In the present context this means that a succession of good news items about a company may lead investors to overreact positively (unjustifiably driving the price up). A period of good returns also boosts the investor's self-confidence, reducing his (psychological) risk threshold.
Another phenomenon—also from psychology—that works against an objective
assessment is group thinking
. As social animals, it is not easy to stick to an opinion that differs markedly from that of a majority of the group. An example with which one may be familiar is the reluctance to enter a restaurant that is empty; people generally prefer to have their opinion validated by those of others in the group.
In one paper the authors draw an analogy with gambling
. In normal times the market behaves like a game of roulette
; the probabilities are known and largely independent of the investment decisions of the different players. In times of market stress, however, the game becomes more like poker (herding behavior takes over). The players now must give heavy weight to the psychology of other investors and how they are likely to react psychologically.
The stock market, as with any other business, is quite unforgiving of amateurs. Inexperienced investors rarely get the assistance and support they need. In the period running up to the 1987 crash, less than 1 percent of the analyst's recommendations had been to sell (and even during the 2000–2002 bear market, the average did not rise above 5 %). In the run up to 2000, the media amplified the general euphoria, with reports of rapidly rising share prices and the notion that large sums of money could be quickly earned in the so-called new economy
stock market. (And later amplified the gloom which descended during the 2000–2002 bear market, so that by summer of 2002, predictions of a DOW average below 5000 were quite common.)
Irrational behaviorSometimes the market seems to react irrationally to economic or financial news, even if that news is likely to have no real effect on the fundamental value of securities itself. But this may be more apparent than real, since often such news has been anticipated, and a counterreaction may occur if the news is better (or worse) than expected. Therefore, the stock market may be swayed in either direction by press releases, rumors, euphoria
and mass panic; but generally only briefly, as more experienced investors (especially the hedge funds) quickly rally to take advantage of even the slightest, momentary hysteria.
Over the short-term, stocks and other securities can be battered or buoyed by any number of fast market-changing events, making the stock market behavior difficult to predict. Emotions can drive prices up and down, people are generally not as rational as they think, and the reasons for buying and selling are generally obscure. Behaviorists argue that investors often behave 'irrationally' when making investment decisions thereby incorrectly pricing securities, which causes market inefficiencies, which, in turn, are opportunities to make money. However, the whole notion of EMH is that these non-rational reactions to information cancel out, leaving the prices of stocks rationally determined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average biggest gain in one day was 936.42 points or 11 percent, this occurred on October 13, 2008.
s of equities listed on the stock exchanges. In parallel with various economic factors, a reason for stock market crashes is also due to panic and investing public's loss of confidence. Often, stock market crashes end speculative economic bubble
There have been famous stock market crash
es that have ended in the loss of billions of dollars and wealth destruction on a massive scale. An increasing number of people are involved in the stock market, especially since the social security
and retirement plans are being increasingly privatized and linked to stock
s and bonds and other elements of the market. There have been a number of famous stock market crashes like the Wall Street Crash of 1929
, the stock market crash of 1973–4
, the Black Monday of 1987
, the Dot-com bubble
of 2000, and the Stock Market Crash of 2008.
One of the most famous stock market crashes started October 24, 1929 on Black Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial lost 50 % during this stock market crash. It was the beginning of the Great Depression
. Another famous crash took place on October 19, 1987 – Black Monday. The crash began in Hong Kong and quickly spread around the world.
By the end of October, stock markets in Hong Kong had fallen 45.5 %%, Australia 41.8 %%, Spain 31 %%, the United Kingdom 26.4 %%, the United States 22.68 %%, and Canada 22.5 %%. Black Monday itself was the largest one-day percentage decline in stock market history – the Dow Jones fell by 22.6 %% in a day. The names “Black Monday” and “Black Tuesday” are also used for October 28–29, 1929, which followed Terrible Thursday—the starting day of the stock market crash in 1929.
The crash in 1987 raised some puzzles-–main news and events did not predict the catastrophe and visible reasons for the collapse were not identified. This event raised questions about many important assumptions of modern economics, namely, the theory of rational human conduct, the theory of market equilibrium and the hypothesis of market efficiency. For some time after the crash, trading in stock exchanges worldwide was halted, since the exchange computers did not perform well owing to enormous quantity of trades being received at one time. This halt in trading allowed the Federal Reserve system and central banks of other countries to take measures to control the spreading of worldwide financial crisis. In the United States the SEC introduced several new measures of control into the stock market in an attempt to prevent a re-occurrence of the events of Black Monday.
Computer systems were upgraded in the stock exchanges to handle larger trading volumes in a more accurate and controlled manner. The SEC modified the margin requirements in an attempt to lower the volatility of common stocks, stock options and the futures market. The New York Stock Exchange
and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
introduced the concept of a circuit breaker. The circuit breaker halts trading if the Dow declines a prescribed number of points for a prescribed amount of time.
- New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) circuit breakers
% drop time of drop close trading for 10 before 2 pm one hour halt 10 2 pm – 2:30 pm half-hour halt 10 after 2:30 pm market stays open 20 before 1 pm halt for two hours 20 1 pm – 2 pm halt for one hour 20 after 2 pm close for the day 30 any time during day close for the day
Stock market indexThe movements of the prices in a market or section of a market are captured in price indices called stock market indices, of which there are many, e.g., the S&P
, the FTSE
and the Euronext
indices. Such indices are usually market capitalization
weighted, with the weights reflecting the contribution of the stock to the index. The constituents of the index are reviewed frequently to include/exclude stocks in order to reflect the changing business environment.
Derivative instrumentsFinancial innovation has brought many new financial instruments whose pay-offs or values depend on the prices of stocks. Some examples are exchange-traded fund
s (ETFs), stock index and stock options, equity swap
s, single-stock futures
, and stock index futures
. These last two may be traded on futures exchange
s (which are distinct from stock exchanges—their history traces back to commodities futures exchanges), or traded over-the-counter
. As all of these products are only derived
from stocks, they are sometimes considered to be traded in a (hypothetical) derivatives market
, rather than the (hypothetical) stock market.
Leveraged strategiesStock that a trader does not actually own may be traded using short selling
; margin buying may be used to purchase stock with borrowed funds; or, derivatives
may be used to control large blocks of stocks for a much smaller amount of money than would be required by outright purchase or sales.
Short sellingIn short selling, the trader borrows stock (usually from his brokerage which holds its clients' shares or its own shares on account to lend to short sellers) then sells it on the market, hoping for the price to fall. The trader eventually buys back the stock, making money if the price fell in the meantime and losing money if it rose. Exiting a short position by buying back the stock is called "covering a short position." This strategy may also be used by unscrupulous traders in illiquid or thinly traded markets to artificially lower the price of a stock. Hence most markets either prevent short selling or place restrictions on when and how a short sale can occur. The practice of naked shorting is illegal in most (but not all) stock markets.
Margin buyingIn margin buying, the trader borrows money (at interest) to buy a stock and hopes for it to rise. Most industrialized countries have regulations that require that if the borrowing is based on collateral from other stocks the trader owns outright, it can be a maximum of a certain percentage of those other stocks' value. In the United States, the margin requirements have been 50 % for many years (that is, if you want to make a $1000 investment, you need to put up $500, and there is often a maintenance margin below the $500).
A margin call is made if the total value of the investor's account cannot support the loss of the trade. (Upon a decline in the value of the margined securities additional funds may be required to maintain the account's equity, and with or without notice the margined security or any others within the account may be sold by the brokerage to protect its loan position. The investor is responsible for any shortfall following such forced sales.)
Regulation of margin requirements (by the Federal Reserve) was implemented after the Crash of 1929. Before that, speculators typically only needed to put up as little as 10 percent (or even less) of the total investment
represented by the stocks purchased. Other rules may include the prohibition of free-riding: putting in an order to buy stocks without paying initially (there is normally a three-day grace period for delivery of the stock), but then selling them (before the three-days are up) and using part of the proceeds to make the original payment (assuming that the value of the stocks has not declined in the interim).
New issuanceGlobal issuance of equity and equity-related instruments totaled $505 billion in 2004, a 29.8 % increase over the $389 billion raised in 2003. Initial public offerings (IPOs) by US issuers increased 221 % with 233 offerings that raised $45 billion, and IPOs in Europe, Middle East and Africa
(EMEA) increased by 333 %, from $ 9 billion to $39 billion.
Investment strategiesOne of the many things people always want to know about the stock market is, "How do I make money investing?" There are many different approaches; two basic methods are classified by either fundamental analysis
or technical analysis
. Fundamental analysis
refers to analyzing companies by their financial statements
found in SEC Filings, business trends, general economic conditions, etc. Technical analysis
studies price actions in markets through the use of charts and quantitative techniques to attempt to forecast price trends regardless of the company's financial prospects. One example of a technical strategy is the Trend following
method, used by John W. Henry
and Ed Seykota
, which uses price patterns, utilizes strict money management and is also rooted in risk control
Additionally, many choose to invest via the index method
. In this method, one holds a weighted or unweighted portfolio consisting of the entire stock market or some segment of the stock market (such as the S&P 500
or Wilshire 5000
). The principal aim of this strategy is to maximize diversification, minimize taxes from too frequent trading, and ride the general trend of the stock market (which, in the U.S., has averaged nearly 10 % per year, compounded annually, since World War II
TaxationAccording to much national or state legislation, a large array of fiscal obligations are taxed for capital gains. Taxes are charged by the state over the transactions, dividends and capital gains on the stock market, in particular in the stock exchanges. However, these fiscal obligations may vary from jurisdictions to jurisdictions because, among other reasons, it could be assumed that taxation is already incorporated into the stock price through the different taxes companies pay to the state, or that tax free stock market operations are useful to boost economic growth.
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