Malcolm Mackerras
Encyclopedia
Malcolm Hugh Mackerras AO
(born 26 August 1939) is an Australia
n psephologist
and commentator and lecturer on Australian and American
politics
.
in Sydney
in August 1939. He is a brother of Sir Charles Mackerras
, a world-famous conductor, and twin brother of Professor Colin Mackerras, a leading China
specialist. Another brother, Neil Mackerras, was active in the Democratic Labor Party
in its early years. Yet another, Alastair Mackerras, was headmaster (principal) of Sydney Grammar School
from 1969 to 1989.
After attending St Aloysius College, Milson’s Point (1947-1951) and the Sydney Grammar School
(1952-1956) Malcolm was employed by the Broken Hill Proprietary Company (BHP)
from 1957-1960, during which time he studied at night for the degree
of Bachelor of Economics at the University of Sydney
(awarded 1962).
Mackerras was a member of the ACT Young Liberals in the late 1960s. His second employer was the Federal Secretariat of the Liberal Party of Australia
for which he was a research officer (1960-1967). The organisation moved him to Canberra
where he has lived continuously since 1965. He spent several years as a ministerial assistant and three years as an economist
with the Chamber of Manufactures (1968-1970), "trying to present the case for protection for Australian manufacturing industry".
In 1971 he became an academic. He is now Visiting Fellow in Political Science, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, at the Australian Defence Force Academy
in Canberra. His employer is the University of New South Wales
.
He is especially interested in elections and electoral systems. His several books and many journal articles are largely in those areas. He has written many articles for The Australian
and The Canberra Times
on these subjects. He likes whenever possible to visit countries during their elections. He visited South Africa
in 1999 as an observer for that country’s second democratic election (May-June 1999). He likes, in particular, to be in the United States
for a presidential election as it greatly improves his American teaching. During his stay in the USA in November-December 2000, there was a “snap” election in Canada
, which he visited, enabling him to improve his knowledge of Canadian politics.
Mackerras's first published study of Australian politics was The Australian Senate 1965-1967: Who Held Control?. He followed this with The 1968 Federal Redistribution (1969). His first major work was Australian General Elections (1972) in which he pioneered the concept of the two-party majority and the two-party swing, and introduced the "pendulum", a table of federal electorates in order of two-party majority, now commonly known as the Mackerras pendulum
. He followed this with a series of books before each federal election, such as Elections 1975, Elections 1980, The Mackerras 1990 Federal Election Guide and The Malcolm Mackerras 1993 Federal Election Guide.
He is commonly described as a psephologist which means "one who studies elections". However, he insists that his political science interests are much broader than that. Indeed one of the reasons for his determination on the November-December 2000 North American visit was to study all the legal manoeuvres in connection with the only "cliffhanger" presidential election of the 20th century. He visited the USA again in September 2004 to attend the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association
in Chicago
.
For the years 2002, 2003 and 2004 he has been specialising in Australian state elections. He visited South Australia
in February 2002, Victoria
in November-December 2002 and New South Wales
in March 2003 for elections in those states, which involved writing newspaper
articles plus broadcasting. He did the same for Queensland
where a state election was held on 7 February 2004. He did the same for Australia’s federal election on 9 October 2004.
, a tabular representation of the likelihood that a parliamentary outcome will occur due to the swing of electors' opinion needed to change the result. (A graphical representation can also be made, in the shape of a U with the notional swing point at the bottom; Mackerras prefers not to use this representation but he is willing to allow newspapers to prepare it from the tabular information.) The Mackerras Pendulum applies to all Australian lower houses with single member electorates.
The Mackerras Pendulum for the Australian federal election of 2004 was published in The Australian
newspaper on Monday, 5 January 2004 together with two tables and an article by him titled "Nothing for certain in landslide danger zone".
Mackerras' pendulum
for the 2007 federal election was published in the Weekend Australian newspaper for 30 September-1 October 2006 under the title "It's luck of the redraw". His prediction for the 2007 election was published in the Australian newspaper on Friday 8 June 2007 under the title "PM marooned in Chifley's shadow". He correctly predicted a Labor win.
Mackerras is famous for making predictions about election results. He claims a "win" ratio of two in three and adds, "at least I'm not boring. The election analyst who makes predictions is far more interesting than one who doesn't. And if I collect egg on my face, then so be it."
An example of an incorrect prediction was one he made in The Australian
of 1 November 2004. Mackerras said that John Kerry
would defeat George W. Bush
in a "landslide" in the U.S. presidential election
the following day, and specifically predicted that Kerry would carry Florida
, Ohio
, Nevada
and Missouri
. (His tabular pendulum had been published about 12 months before this, and the graphical pendulum was published in February 2004.)
Order of Australia
The Order of Australia is an order of chivalry established on 14 February 1975 by Elizabeth II, Queen of Australia, "for the purpose of according recognition to Australian citizens and other persons for achievement or for meritorious service"...
(born 26 August 1939) is an Australia
Australia
Australia , officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a country in the Southern Hemisphere comprising the mainland of the Australian continent, the island of Tasmania, and numerous smaller islands in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. It is the world's sixth-largest country by total area...
n psephologist
Psephology
Psephology is that branch of political science which deals with the study and scientific analysis of elections. Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in the United Kingdom in 1952 by...
and commentator and lecturer on Australian and American
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
politics
Politics
Politics is a process by which groups of people make collective decisions. The term is generally applied to the art or science of running governmental or state affairs, including behavior within civil governments, but also applies to institutions, fields, and special interest groups such as the...
.
Education and works
Malcolm Mackerras was born at TurramurraTurramurra, New South Wales
Turramurra is a suburb on the Upper North Shore of Sydney, in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Turramurra is located north of the Sydney central business district, in the local government area of Ku-ring-gai Council...
in Sydney
Sydney
Sydney is the most populous city in Australia and the state capital of New South Wales. Sydney is located on Australia's south-east coast of the Tasman Sea. As of June 2010, the greater metropolitan area had an approximate population of 4.6 million people...
in August 1939. He is a brother of Sir Charles Mackerras
Charles Mackerras
Sir Alan Charles Maclaurin Mackerras, AC, CH, CBE was an Australian conductor. He was an authority on the operas of Janáček and Mozart, and the comic operas of Gilbert and Sullivan...
, a world-famous conductor, and twin brother of Professor Colin Mackerras, a leading China
People's Republic of China
China , officially the People's Republic of China , is the most populous country in the world, with over 1.3 billion citizens. Located in East Asia, the country covers approximately 9.6 million square kilometres...
specialist. Another brother, Neil Mackerras, was active in the Democratic Labor Party
Democratic Labor Party
The Democratic Labor Party is a political party in Australia that espouses social conservatism and opposes neo-liberalism. The first "DLP" Senator in decades, party vice-president John Madigan was elected to the Australian Senate with 2.3 percent of the primary vote in Victoria at the 2010 federal...
in its early years. Yet another, Alastair Mackerras, was headmaster (principal) of Sydney Grammar School
Sydney Grammar School
Sydney Grammar School is an independent, non-denominational, selective, day school for boys, located in Darlinghurst, Edgecliff and St Ives, all suburbs of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia....
from 1969 to 1989.
After attending St Aloysius College, Milson’s Point (1947-1951) and the Sydney Grammar School
Sydney Grammar School
Sydney Grammar School is an independent, non-denominational, selective, day school for boys, located in Darlinghurst, Edgecliff and St Ives, all suburbs of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia....
(1952-1956) Malcolm was employed by the Broken Hill Proprietary Company (BHP)
BHP Billiton
BHP Billiton is a global mining, oil and gas company headquartered in Melbourne, Australia and with a major management office in London, United Kingdom...
from 1957-1960, during which time he studied at night for the degree
Academic degree
An academic degree is a position and title within a college or university that is usually awarded in recognition of the recipient having either satisfactorily completed a prescribed course of study or having conducted a scholarly endeavour deemed worthy of his or her admission to the degree...
of Bachelor of Economics at the University of Sydney
University of Sydney
The University of Sydney is a public university located in Sydney, New South Wales. The main campus spreads across the suburbs of Camperdown and Darlington on the southwestern outskirts of the Sydney CBD. Founded in 1850, it is the oldest university in Australia and Oceania...
(awarded 1962).
Mackerras was a member of the ACT Young Liberals in the late 1960s. His second employer was the Federal Secretariat of the Liberal Party of Australia
Liberal Party of Australia
The Liberal Party of Australia is an Australian political party.Founded a year after the 1943 federal election to replace the United Australia Party, the centre-right Liberal Party typically competes with the centre-left Australian Labor Party for political office...
for which he was a research officer (1960-1967). The organisation moved him to Canberra
Canberra
Canberra is the capital city of Australia. With a population of over 345,000, it is Australia's largest inland city and the eighth-largest city overall. The city is located at the northern end of the Australian Capital Territory , south-west of Sydney, and north-east of Melbourne...
where he has lived continuously since 1965. He spent several years as a ministerial assistant and three years as an economist
Economist
An economist is a professional in the social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy...
with the Chamber of Manufactures (1968-1970), "trying to present the case for protection for Australian manufacturing industry".
In 1971 he became an academic. He is now Visiting Fellow in Political Science, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, at the Australian Defence Force Academy
Australian Defence Force Academy
The Australian Defence Force Academy is a tri-service military Academy that provides military and tertiary academic education for junior officers of the Australian Defence Force in the Royal Australian Navy , Australian Army and Royal Australian Air Force .Tertiary education is provided by the...
in Canberra. His employer is the University of New South Wales
University of New South Wales
The University of New South Wales , is a research-focused university based in Kensington, a suburb in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia...
.
He is especially interested in elections and electoral systems. His several books and many journal articles are largely in those areas. He has written many articles for The Australian
The Australian
The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly....
and The Canberra Times
The Canberra Times
The Canberra Times newspaper was founded in 1926 in Canberra, Australia by Arthur Shakespeare.It was the second paper to be printed in the city, the first being The Federal Capital Pioneer. The paper was sold to the Fairfax group in the 1960s by Arthur Shakespeare on the condition that it continue...
on these subjects. He likes whenever possible to visit countries during their elections. He visited South Africa
South Africa
The Republic of South Africa is a country in southern Africa. Located at the southern tip of Africa, it is divided into nine provinces, with of coastline on the Atlantic and Indian oceans...
in 1999 as an observer for that country’s second democratic election (May-June 1999). He likes, in particular, to be in the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
for a presidential election as it greatly improves his American teaching. During his stay in the USA in November-December 2000, there was a “snap” election in Canada
Canada
Canada is a North American country consisting of ten provinces and three territories. Located in the northern part of the continent, it extends from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west, and northward into the Arctic Ocean...
, which he visited, enabling him to improve his knowledge of Canadian politics.
Mackerras's first published study of Australian politics was The Australian Senate 1965-1967: Who Held Control?. He followed this with The 1968 Federal Redistribution (1969). His first major work was Australian General Elections (1972) in which he pioneered the concept of the two-party majority and the two-party swing, and introduced the "pendulum", a table of federal electorates in order of two-party majority, now commonly known as the Mackerras pendulum
Mackerras Pendulum
The Mackerras Pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of...
. He followed this with a series of books before each federal election, such as Elections 1975, Elections 1980, The Mackerras 1990 Federal Election Guide and The Malcolm Mackerras 1993 Federal Election Guide.
He is commonly described as a psephologist which means "one who studies elections". However, he insists that his political science interests are much broader than that. Indeed one of the reasons for his determination on the November-December 2000 North American visit was to study all the legal manoeuvres in connection with the only "cliffhanger" presidential election of the 20th century. He visited the USA again in September 2004 to attend the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association
American Political Science Association
The American Political Science Association is a professional association of political science students and scholars in the United States. Founded in 1903, it publishes three academic journals...
in Chicago
Chicago
Chicago is the largest city in the US state of Illinois. With nearly 2.7 million residents, it is the most populous city in the Midwestern United States and the third most populous in the US, after New York City and Los Angeles...
.
For the years 2002, 2003 and 2004 he has been specialising in Australian state elections. He visited South Australia
South Australia
South Australia is a state of Australia in the southern central part of the country. It covers some of the most arid parts of the continent; with a total land area of , it is the fourth largest of Australia's six states and two territories.South Australia shares borders with all of the mainland...
in February 2002, Victoria
Victoria (Australia)
Victoria is the second most populous state in Australia. Geographically the smallest mainland state, Victoria is bordered by New South Wales, South Australia, and Tasmania on Boundary Islet to the north, west and south respectively....
in November-December 2002 and New South Wales
New South Wales
New South Wales is a state of :Australia, located in the east of the country. It is bordered by Queensland, Victoria and South Australia to the north, south and west respectively. To the east, the state is bordered by the Tasman Sea, which forms part of the Pacific Ocean. New South Wales...
in March 2003 for elections in those states, which involved writing newspaper
Newspaper
A newspaper is a scheduled publication containing news of current events, informative articles, diverse features and advertising. It usually is printed on relatively inexpensive, low-grade paper such as newsprint. By 2007, there were 6580 daily newspapers in the world selling 395 million copies a...
articles plus broadcasting. He did the same for Queensland
Queensland
Queensland is a state of Australia, occupying the north-eastern section of the mainland continent. It is bordered by the Northern Territory, South Australia and New South Wales to the west, south-west and south respectively. To the east, Queensland is bordered by the Coral Sea and Pacific Ocean...
where a state election was held on 7 February 2004. He did the same for Australia’s federal election on 9 October 2004.
Publications
His two most recent books are Australian Political Facts: Second Edition (Macmillan, 1997) which he wrote with Ian McAllister and Carolyn Brown Boldiston and, more recently, Constitutional Politics: The Republic Referendum and the Future (University of Queensland Press, 2002), which he edited with John Warhurst of the Australian National University. The two men took opposite sides in the debate over the 1999 Australian republic referendum but have now joined together to record the event.Election commentary
Mackerras has been a regular commentator on Australian elections in print, on radio and television on most federal and state elections. He has become well known for his predictions of electoral outcomes using the Mackerras PendulumMackerras Pendulum
The Mackerras Pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of...
, a tabular representation of the likelihood that a parliamentary outcome will occur due to the swing of electors' opinion needed to change the result. (A graphical representation can also be made, in the shape of a U with the notional swing point at the bottom; Mackerras prefers not to use this representation but he is willing to allow newspapers to prepare it from the tabular information.) The Mackerras Pendulum applies to all Australian lower houses with single member electorates.
The Mackerras Pendulum for the Australian federal election of 2004 was published in The Australian
The Australian
The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly....
newspaper on Monday, 5 January 2004 together with two tables and an article by him titled "Nothing for certain in landslide danger zone".
Mackerras' pendulum
Mackerras federal election pendulum, 2006
The Mackerras federal election pendulum, 2006 shows the state of the major political parties ahead of the 2007 Australian federal election. The table shows seats in the Australian House of Representatives arranged in the form of a Mackerras Pendulum based on their 2004 federal election two-party...
for the 2007 federal election was published in the Weekend Australian newspaper for 30 September-1 October 2006 under the title "It's luck of the redraw". His prediction for the 2007 election was published in the Australian newspaper on Friday 8 June 2007 under the title "PM marooned in Chifley's shadow". He correctly predicted a Labor win.
Mackerras is famous for making predictions about election results. He claims a "win" ratio of two in three and adds, "at least I'm not boring. The election analyst who makes predictions is far more interesting than one who doesn't. And if I collect egg on my face, then so be it."
An example of an incorrect prediction was one he made in The Australian
The Australian
The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly....
of 1 November 2004. Mackerras said that John Kerry
John Kerry
John Forbes Kerry is the senior United States Senator from Massachusetts, the 10th most senior U.S. Senator and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2004 presidential election, but lost to former President George W...
would defeat George W. Bush
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
in a "landslide" in the U.S. presidential election
United States presidential election, 2004
The United States presidential election of 2004 was the United States' 55th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2004. Republican Party candidate and incumbent President George W. Bush defeated Democratic Party candidate John Kerry, the then-junior U.S. Senator...
the following day, and specifically predicted that Kerry would carry Florida
Florida
Florida is a state in the southeastern United States, located on the nation's Atlantic and Gulf coasts. It is bordered to the west by the Gulf of Mexico, to the north by Alabama and Georgia and to the east by the Atlantic Ocean. With a population of 18,801,310 as measured by the 2010 census, it...
, Ohio
Ohio
Ohio is a Midwestern state in the United States. The 34th largest state by area in the U.S.,it is the 7th‑most populous with over 11.5 million residents, containing several major American cities and seven metropolitan areas with populations of 500,000 or more.The state's capital is Columbus...
, Nevada
Nevada
Nevada is a state in the western, mountain west, and southwestern regions of the United States. With an area of and a population of about 2.7 million, it is the 7th-largest and 35th-most populous state. Over two-thirds of Nevada's people live in the Las Vegas metropolitan area, which contains its...
and Missouri
Missouri
Missouri is a US state located in the Midwestern United States, bordered by Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska. With a 2010 population of 5,988,927, Missouri is the 18th most populous state in the nation and the fifth most populous in the Midwest. It...
. (His tabular pendulum had been published about 12 months before this, and the graphical pendulum was published in February 2004.)