Venezuelan presidential election, 2006
Encyclopedia
The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela held presidential elections on 3 December 2006, to choose a president for the six-year term to begin on 10 January 2007. With 98.29% of the polling stations counted, incumbent president Hugo Chávez
was re-elected with 62.87% of the votes.
recommended procedures for a primary
, to be held on 13 August 2006, to choose the opposition candidate for the December 2006 presidential elections. Teodoro Petkoff
, a Chávez critic, said that Súmate's procedure was authoritarian, comparing it to the Carmona Decree. Nine other candidates agreed to the terms for holding a primary, confirming their desire to allow the citizens to choose the opposition candidate. Another candidate condemned Petkoff's remarks against Súmate, saying that Petkoff's statements did not help the country, and explaining that the conditions for holding a primary had been previously discussed between all of the candidates, including Petkoff. On 9 August, Súmate announced that the 13 August primary election would not be held, since the candidates had decided to back Manuel Rosales
as the single opposition candidate. Machado said that the primary "initiative accomplished its goal and that Súmate would continue working to ensure clean elections and respect for citizens' rights."
Rafael Lacava said that the campaign was to be based on defending Venezuela's national sovereignty
and promoting world peace. According to Unión Radio, Lacava added that a campaign theme was to be the "country's freedom to no longer be a North American colony".
According to the Associated Press
, Chávez launched his campaign "with warnings that Washington is trying to undermine December's presidential vote and destabilize Venezuela", saying "I am the candidate of the revolution and without a doubt I am the candidate of the national majority," dismissing other candidates as "tools of the U.S. government". El Universal
reports that Chávez said, "In this electoral process there are two candidates only, namely Hugo Chávez and George W. Bush
."
Chávez promised that, if elected, he would personally convoke a midterm recall referendum in the year 2010 without the need for petition signatures as was the case with the 2004 recall referendum
. This consult would allow the voters of Venezuela to remove him from his post. He has said that if he won that recall referendum, he would then call for a referendum to ask the people for indefinite re-election to be put into the constitution.
On 26 November Chávez made his final rally in Caracas; it was called "The Red Tide takes Caracas". Reuters estimated that hundreds of thousands participated. Chávez supporters packed several streets.
for all unemployed and direct contribution to the underprivileged". The latter being promoted as Mi Negra which is a debit card
handed out to the poor with monthly deposits from 20% of oil industry profits. Nevertheless, a poll shows 59% of the Venezuelan people rejected the Mi Negra program, preferring stable jobs.
According to the Los Angeles Times
, Rosales stated that Chávez was vulnerable on his "massive foreign aid programs, government-approved takeovers of land and buildings, and the perception that crime is increasing". Rosales said, "We will distribute land to the peasants, but we will buy it in such a way as to respect the principle of private property, just as we will respect those of human rights
and social justice
." Rosales would halt oil giveaways, "including sales of discounted oil to Cuba, until Venezuela reduced its high poverty rate."
The Associated Press reports that Rosales accuses Chávez of "overspending on a military buildup" and pledged "to use Venezuela's oil wealth to help the poor and improve education and health care", ridiculing Chávez's "claims of a possible war with the U.S." and saying, "Venezuela's real war should be against rampant street crime."
Rosales held several large rallies around the country; the largest being "Las Avalanchas" in Caracas. Rallies were held in several states to try to get the Rosales campaign to be heard by as many people as possible. To close his election campaign, Manuel Rosales held a huge final rally in Caracas with an estimate by the Associated Press to be in the hundreds of thousands.
Chávez declared he would not debate Rosales because "the candidates from the opposition do not even have the condition to debate a schoolboy or girl in sixth grade from a Bolivarian school".
of 10 Millones de votos (10 million votes), On multiple occasions the campaign used the more combatitive "10 millones por el buche" (10 million votes down their throats). On 17 August 2006, while leading the oath at the national campaign headquarters (Commando Miranda), Chávez acknowledged that 10 million votes would be hard to attain. The 10 Million votes slogan remained popular as symbolic of the desire of Chávez supporters to not just win, but win by a wide margin to prevent accusations from Rosales supporters that fraud was used to win the election.
From 9 October, Chávez campaign used the slogans por amor (for love) and Chávez, victoria de Venezuela (Chávez, Venezuela's victory). They also used the slogan uh, ah, Chávez no se va (ooh, oh, Chávez won't go) from the 2004 recall referendum
campaign.
A poll made by the firm Cifras Escenarios reported that 76.7% of Venezuelans liked the love message. The English translation of the message is as follows:
¡Ni el imperio, ni el barbudo! (Neither the [U.S.] empire, nor the [Cuban] bearded one!) is a slogan used by Rosales in launching his campaign, intended to "hit Chávez where the Venezuelan comandante is most vulnerable: his penchant for giving away billions of dollars to foreign countries, while nearly half of the Venezuelan people live in poverty" referring to subsidized oil deals to both Cuba and the United States. "We are not going to be the empire's defenders," Rosales said. "The empire must respect our sovereignty, and we must respect the empire," and "we cannot be looking at societies like Cuba as a model to be copied. We want modernity, transformation, development."
.
*Resigned.
(*) Technical tie
(+) Results are political segmentation, not voter intention
(++) This poll was attributed to the Universidad Complutense de Madrid
. University's authorities clarified that they have not knowledge about this study. One of members of the CEPS happen to be a university faculty.
(+++) Publisher does not mention polling company.
stated "The market expects a Chávez victory, they don't even question it". Ricardo Amorim of WestLB
Research "The vision I see is that of a 20 point victory... We would be surprised if he does not win". Patrick Esteruelas of Euroasia Group saw Chávez winning by 60 percent. Also arguing that a high turnout would benefit Chávez, Goldman Sachs
dismissed the close polling arguing, "Chávez is the favorite to win the election due to vast control of logistical and financial state resources, and influence over key institutions".
(CNE) director Humberto Castillo, the turnout in polling stations was massive, and the conditions were "normal" throughout the country. Polling station
were scheduled to close at 4:00 p.m. Around 5 p.m., CNE president Tibisay Lucena
officially announced the end of the voting process, but gave orders to keep polling stations open if voters still remained in line.
Rosales' campaign team denounced irregularities in the closing of some voting booths, saying that Plan República—the armed forces sent to guard the electoral process—would not let some electoral centers be closed even though no voters remained in line. Rosales' spokesman also alerted about the reopening of already closed centers. CNE member Vicente Díaz later reaffirmed that all polling stations without voters in line must be closed, and that no booths under any circumstances could be reopened.
for The People's Balcony) in the presidential palace to celebrate his victory and address his followers. Chávez announced that a new era has started in Bolivarian development, focused in the expansion of the Bolivarian Revolution
.
That same night, Manuel Rosales made a brief speech to the nation, recognizing that he had been defeated. But he insisted that the two exit poll
studies his supporters had made, and the results of the audits, showed a narrower difference between him and Chávez than was reported by Lucena. Rosales said in his speech that he and his supporters "will be in streets to prove that the results by the National Electoral Council are not correct, that the gap is narrower that what presented."
The elections were monitored by The Carter Center
, who in an extensive report concluded that the elections were "fair, transparent and without serious irregularities". Carter Center praised "the civic spirit of the elections" and hoped that "other Latin American nations will follow Venezuela's example in the future."
A study conducted by Ezequiel Zamora (former vicepresident of the CNE), Freddy Malpica (former rector of the Universidad Simón Bolívar
), Guillermo Salas (USB professor), Jorge Tamayo (UCV professor), Ramiro Esparragoza (UCV professor), four statistics experts and three computer engineers concluded in January 2007 that the 2006 Presidential elections presented "important statistical inconsistencies, despite the fact that the opposition candidate recognized the results". They argued that the elections results of many electoral centers showed a very regular statistical distribution of the votes in favor of Rosales in comparison with the dispersion of the votes for Chávez. This suggest that the regularities are the possible result of numerical ceilings embedded in the voting machines. Also there seems to be a regular statistical abstention of 25% in most electoral centers and no signs of dispersion. They have recommended further studies of the data in order to understand the deficiencies of the Venezuelan electoral system and in order to have a "minimum of transparency" in any future electoral process.
instituted an open and public series of audits of the vote results. Each one of the 11,118 automated polling places was equipped with multiple high-tech touch-screen
DRE voting machine
s, one to a "mesa electoral", or voting "table". In total, 32,331 voting machines were in use country-wide. After the vote is cast, each machine prints out a paper ballot
, or VVPAT, which is inspected by the voter and deposited in a ballot box belonging to the machine's table. The voting machines perform in a stand-alone fashion, disconnected from any network until the polls close. Voting session closure at each of the voting stations in a given polling center is determined either by the lack of further voters after the lines have emptied, or by the hour, at the discretion of the president of the voting table.
Source CNE
Source CNE
Source CNE
The following procedure occurs step by step
Source CNE
has audited the Registry on multiple occasions; the first occurred in early 2006 by IIDH-CAPEL (Costa Rican Human Right org) that concluded there was nothing found that delegitimized the registry. A second review process started in mid-2006 where the CNE asked all the public universities of Venezuela to conduct also an external review of the electoral registry. However, the review project presented by the Central University of Venezuela
, Simón Bolívar University
and the Andrés Bello Catholic University
was rejected by the CNE. One of the proposed methods by these institutions was comparing census data with the electoral registry. They nevertheless ran their audit in parallel and the representative of the three institutions José Miguel Bernardo concluded "In practice [these errors] do not favor the government and their distribution is uniform." A second mathematician involved in the audit, Raúl Jiménez, concluded "One must be responsible. The electoral registry is a disaster and the CNE has done nothing to improve it, but there is nothing to indicate a political intention in the anomalies."
The CNE performed the third audit with the aid of seven other public universities and with the Carter Center and two senators from the Belgian parliament observing the audit.
The senators were Jacinta de Roeck, independent, and Sfia Bouarfa
, from the French-speaking Socialist Party
.
In June 2006, a privately funded preliminary study by Genaro Mosquera, a statistics
professor at the Central University and member of the political party Democratic Action
,
claimed that in the last three years the registry grew 27% compare to a population growth of only 7.3% during those years and also a much larger growth than the regular increasse of the registry of 12% every five years between 1948 and 2000. On of the flagship government Bolivarian Missions
was Mission Identidad
, where roughly 5 million citizens were awarded an ID card and the right to register and vote. Also, by comparing the official population numbers provided with by the Office of National Statistics with the CNE registry, there seems to be more register voters of 45 years of age and over than actual population.
According to NGO Ojo Electoral (Electoral Eye) preliminary results of a comparison between the Electoral Registry and demographic projections of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) suggests that inconsistencies in the voter data base cannot modify the results of the election.
, telling state oil workers to back President Hugo Chávez or to leave their jobs. He also said PDVSA is red "from top to bottom"(PDVSA es roja, rojita de arriba abajo). He also said that PDVSA's "workers are with this revolution, and those who aren't should go somewhere else. Go to Miami". Opposition media outlets have been repeating the 14-minute video over and over again. President Chávez said he supported the PDVSA director and recommended him to make the same speech to oil workers 100 times a day.
The CNE opened an investigation into Rafael Ramírez following the protests from the opposition and Ramírez was eventually fined.
Hugo Chávez
Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías is the 56th and current President of Venezuela, having held that position since 1999. He was formerly the leader of the Fifth Republic Movement political party from its foundation in 1997 until 2007, when he became the leader of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela...
was re-elected with 62.87% of the votes.
Main candidates
- Hugo ChávezHugo ChávezHugo Rafael Chávez Frías is the 56th and current President of Venezuela, having held that position since 1999. He was formerly the leader of the Fifth Republic Movement political party from its foundation in 1997 until 2007, when he became the leader of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela...
, incumbent president, representing the Fifth Republic MovementFifth Republic MovementThe Fifth Republic Movement was a left-wing, Socialist political party in Venezuela. It was founded in July 1997, following a national congress of the Revolutionary Bolivarian Movement-200, to support the candidacy of Hugo Chávez, the current President of Venezuela, in the Venezuelan presidential...
(MVR). - Manuel RosalesManuel RosalesManuel Antonio Rosales Guerrero is a Venezuelan educator and politician and was the most prominent opposition candidate in the 2006 presidential election, losing to incumbent Hugo Chávez...
, governor of Zulia State, representing A New EraA New EraA New Era is a centrist political party of Venezuela arising from the Third Way tradition. It is the largest party in Venezuela's fractured opposition, earning 11% of the vote in the 2008 gubernatorial elections...
(Un Nuevo Tiempo).
Accepted to Observe
- Carter CenterCarter CenterThe Carter Center is a nongovernmental, not-for-profit organization founded in 1982 by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and his wife Rosalynn Carter. In partnership with Emory University, The Carter Center works to advance human rights and alleviate human suffering...
- European UnionEuropean UnionThe European Union is an economic and political union of 27 independent member states which are located primarily in Europe. The EU traces its origins from the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community , formed by six countries in 1958...
- MercosurMercosurMercosur or Mercosul is an economic and political agreement among Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. Founded in 1991 by the Treaty of Asunción, which was later amended and updated by the 1994 Treaty of Ouro Preto. Its purpose is to promote free trade and the fluid movement of goods, people,...
- Organization of American StatesOrganization of American StatesThe Organization of American States is a regional international organization, headquartered in Washington, D.C., United States...
Declined Official Government Sanction to Observe
- Cortes GeneralesCortes GeneralesThe Cortes Generales is the legislature of Spain. It is a bicameral parliament, composed of the Congress of Deputies and the Senate . The Cortes has power to enact any law and to amend the constitution...
(SpanishSpainSpain , officially the Kingdom of Spain languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Spain's official name is as follows:;;;;;;), is a country and member state of the European Union located in southwestern Europe on the Iberian Peninsula...
parliament)
Primary election
Civil society organization SúmateSúmate
Súmate is a Venezuelan volunteer civil association founded in 2002 by María Corina Machado and Alejandro Plaz. Súmate describes itself as a vote-monitoring group; it has also been described as an election-monitoring group....
recommended procedures for a primary
Primary election
A primary election is an election in which party members or voters select candidates for a subsequent election. Primary elections are one means by which a political party nominates candidates for the next general election....
, to be held on 13 August 2006, to choose the opposition candidate for the December 2006 presidential elections. Teodoro Petkoff
Teodoro Petkoff
Teodoro Petkoff Malec is a Venezuelan politician, ex-guerrilla, journalist and economist. One of the most prominent politicians on the left in Venezuela, Petkoff began as a communist but gravitated towards liberalism in the 1990s. As Minister of Planning he oversaw President Rafael Caldera's...
, a Chávez critic, said that Súmate's procedure was authoritarian, comparing it to the Carmona Decree. Nine other candidates agreed to the terms for holding a primary, confirming their desire to allow the citizens to choose the opposition candidate. Another candidate condemned Petkoff's remarks against Súmate, saying that Petkoff's statements did not help the country, and explaining that the conditions for holding a primary had been previously discussed between all of the candidates, including Petkoff. On 9 August, Súmate announced that the 13 August primary election would not be held, since the candidates had decided to back Manuel Rosales
Manuel Rosales
Manuel Antonio Rosales Guerrero is a Venezuelan educator and politician and was the most prominent opposition candidate in the 2006 presidential election, losing to incumbent Hugo Chávez...
as the single opposition candidate. Machado said that the primary "initiative accomplished its goal and that Súmate would continue working to ensure clean elections and respect for citizens' rights."
Campaign platforms
Chávez
Chávez's campaign managerCampaign manager
A campaign manager is a paid or volunteer individual, whose role is to coordinate the campaign's operations such as fundraising, advertising, polling, getting out the vote , and other activities supporting the effort, directly.Apart from the candidate, they are often a campaign's most visible leader...
Rafael Lacava said that the campaign was to be based on defending Venezuela's national sovereignty
Sovereignty
Sovereignty is the quality of having supreme, independent authority over a geographic area, such as a territory. It can be found in a power to rule and make law that rests on a political fact for which no purely legal explanation can be provided...
and promoting world peace. According to Unión Radio, Lacava added that a campaign theme was to be the "country's freedom to no longer be a North American colony".
According to the Associated Press
Associated Press
The Associated Press is an American news agency. The AP is a cooperative owned by its contributing newspapers, radio and television stations in the United States, which both contribute stories to the AP and use material written by its staff journalists...
, Chávez launched his campaign "with warnings that Washington is trying to undermine December's presidential vote and destabilize Venezuela", saying "I am the candidate of the revolution and without a doubt I am the candidate of the national majority," dismissing other candidates as "tools of the U.S. government". El Universal
El Universal (Caracas)
El Universal is a major Venezuelan newspaper, headquartered in Caracas with an average daily circulation of about 150,000. The online version carries news, politics, sports, economy and more....
reports that Chávez said, "In this electoral process there are two candidates only, namely Hugo Chávez and George W. Bush
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
."
Chávez promised that, if elected, he would personally convoke a midterm recall referendum in the year 2010 without the need for petition signatures as was the case with the 2004 recall referendum
Venezuelan recall referendum of 2004
The Venezuelan recall referendum of 15 August 2004 was a referendum to determine whether Hugo Chávez, the current President of Venezuela, should be recalled from office...
. This consult would allow the voters of Venezuela to remove him from his post. He has said that if he won that recall referendum, he would then call for a referendum to ask the people for indefinite re-election to be put into the constitution.
On 26 November Chávez made his final rally in Caracas; it was called "The Red Tide takes Caracas". Reuters estimated that hundreds of thousands participated. Chávez supporters packed several streets.
Rosales
Rosales said that the backbone of his government program was to be the social arena, saying it will be a "sound and well defined" program, including a "fair allocation of oil revenues by means of two axes– minimum wageMinimum wage
A minimum wage is the lowest hourly, daily or monthly remuneration that employers may legally pay to workers. Equivalently, it is the lowest wage at which workers may sell their labour. Although minimum wage laws are in effect in a great many jurisdictions, there are differences of opinion about...
for all unemployed and direct contribution to the underprivileged". The latter being promoted as Mi Negra which is a debit card
Debit card
A debit card is a plastic card that provides the cardholder electronic access to his or her bank account/s at a financial institution...
handed out to the poor with monthly deposits from 20% of oil industry profits. Nevertheless, a poll shows 59% of the Venezuelan people rejected the Mi Negra program, preferring stable jobs.
Los Angeles Times
The Los Angeles Times is a daily newspaper published in Los Angeles, California, since 1881. It was the second-largest metropolitan newspaper in circulation in the United States in 2008 and the fourth most widely distributed newspaper in the country....
, Rosales stated that Chávez was vulnerable on his "massive foreign aid programs, government-approved takeovers of land and buildings, and the perception that crime is increasing". Rosales said, "We will distribute land to the peasants, but we will buy it in such a way as to respect the principle of private property, just as we will respect those of human rights
Human rights
Human rights are "commonly understood as inalienable fundamental rights to which a person is inherently entitled simply because she or he is a human being." Human rights are thus conceived as universal and egalitarian . These rights may exist as natural rights or as legal rights, in both national...
and social justice
Social justice
Social justice generally refers to the idea of creating a society or institution that is based on the principles of equality and solidarity, that understands and values human rights, and that recognizes the dignity of every human being. The term and modern concept of "social justice" was coined by...
." Rosales would halt oil giveaways, "including sales of discounted oil to Cuba, until Venezuela reduced its high poverty rate."
The Associated Press reports that Rosales accuses Chávez of "overspending on a military buildup" and pledged "to use Venezuela's oil wealth to help the poor and improve education and health care", ridiculing Chávez's "claims of a possible war with the U.S." and saying, "Venezuela's real war should be against rampant street crime."
Rosales held several large rallies around the country; the largest being "Las Avalanchas" in Caracas. Rallies were held in several states to try to get the Rosales campaign to be heard by as many people as possible. To close his election campaign, Manuel Rosales held a huge final rally in Caracas with an estimate by the Associated Press to be in the hundreds of thousands.
No debate held
Rosales demanded a public debate, saying Chávez should choose the TV channel where the debate would be broadcast. He also said "I am waiting for him (Chávez) to have a debate with me broadcast by all the TV channels to allow Venezuelans to know what is the project and the vision of the country he has and the project and vision we have".Chávez declared he would not debate Rosales because "the candidates from the opposition do not even have the condition to debate a schoolboy or girl in sixth grade from a Bolivarian school".
Chávez
Chávez launched his campaign with a sloganSlogan
A slogan is a memorable motto or phrase used in a political, commercial, religious and other context as a repetitive expression of an idea or purpose. The word slogan is derived from slogorn which was an Anglicisation of the Scottish Gaelic sluagh-ghairm . Slogans vary from the written and the...
of 10 Millones de votos (10 million votes), On multiple occasions the campaign used the more combatitive "10 millones por el buche" (10 million votes down their throats). On 17 August 2006, while leading the oath at the national campaign headquarters (Commando Miranda), Chávez acknowledged that 10 million votes would be hard to attain. The 10 Million votes slogan remained popular as symbolic of the desire of Chávez supporters to not just win, but win by a wide margin to prevent accusations from Rosales supporters that fraud was used to win the election.
From 9 October, Chávez campaign used the slogans por amor (for love) and Chávez, victoria de Venezuela (Chávez, Venezuela's victory). They also used the slogan uh, ah, Chávez no se va (ooh, oh, Chávez won't go) from the 2004 recall referendum
Venezuelan recall referendum of 2004
The Venezuelan recall referendum of 15 August 2004 was a referendum to determine whether Hugo Chávez, the current President of Venezuela, should be recalled from office...
campaign.
A poll made by the firm Cifras Escenarios reported that 76.7% of Venezuelans liked the love message. The English translation of the message is as follows:
Rosales
Atrévete con Manuel Rosales is the Rosales campaign slogan.¡Ni el imperio, ni el barbudo! (Neither the [U.S.] empire, nor the [Cuban] bearded one!) is a slogan used by Rosales in launching his campaign, intended to "hit Chávez where the Venezuelan comandante is most vulnerable: his penchant for giving away billions of dollars to foreign countries, while nearly half of the Venezuelan people live in poverty" referring to subsidized oil deals to both Cuba and the United States. "We are not going to be the empire's defenders," Rosales said. "The empire must respect our sovereignty, and we must respect the empire," and "we cannot be looking at societies like Cuba as a model to be copied. We want modernity, transformation, development."
Other candidates
The ballot was the largest in Venezuelan history which, according to El Universal, is explained by division among adherents to grassroots ChavismoChavismo
Chavismo is the name given to the left-wing political ideology based on the ideas, programs and government style associated with the present president of Venezuela, Hugo Chávez. Chavista is a term to describe strong supporters of Chavez, which is closely associated with support for...
.
- Pedro Aranguren of Movimiento Conciencia de País.
- Jesús Caldera Infante*, the former president of FOGADE, representing the New Progressive Alliance. On 29 November, he withdrew his candidacy and backed Rosales.
- Lucrecia Carolina Contreras de León, independent.
- Venezuela Portuguesa Da Silva Isquierdo of Nuevo Orden Social.
- Ángel Irigoyen, of Let Us Break Chains (RC).
- Isbelia León, of the Strength and Peace Institution.
- Benjamín RausseoBenjamín RausseoBenjamín Rausseo Rodríguez is a Venezuelan artist, stand-up comedian and career humorist best known for his character Er Conde del Guácharo .-Biography:...
* a stand-up comedian, endorsed by the newly formed "PIEDRA" party. Three weeks before the election, in accordance with a campaign pledge he had made earlier (to stand down if not placed first or second in the opinion polls), he withdrew his candidacy without endorsing either Chávez or Rosales, telling his supporters to vote for either. - Luis ReyesLuis ReyesLuis Reyes , is a retired Honduran football player who is currently the fourth all-time scorer for C.D. Motagua. He played forward from season 1978–79 to 1984–85. He also managed Motagua in 1999–2000 Clausura winning that season.-Honors:...
of Joven. - Homer Rodríguez, of For Love of Venezuela.
- Carmelo Romano Pérez, Liberal United People Movement.
- Judith Salazar of HP.
- Alejandro José Suárez LuzardoAlejandro José Suárez LuzardoAlejandro José Suárez Luzardo is a Venezuelan politician and lawyer.He is member of a party named Movimiento Sentir Nacional.He took part in the Venezuelan presidential election, 2006.-References:...
of the Partido Sentir Nacional. - José Tineo, Venezuelan Third Millennium National Party.
- Eudes Vera Tovar, independent.
*Resigned.
Chávez
|
People's Electoral Movement The People's Electoral Movement was a left-wing political party in Venezuela, founded in 1967 by Luis Beltrán Prieto Figueroa... (MEP) Tupamaro (Venezuela) Revolutionary Movement Tupamaro or Tupamaro is a political party and organization of Venezuela.-History:The theory pointed to the birth of the movement as an answer—like other social movements on the continent—to alleged injustices perpetrated by the governments of various period of Venezuela's... Revolutionary Middle Class Revolutionary Middle Class is a left-wing political party in Venezuela. It was founded on August 7, 2006 as the electoral arm of the Positive Middle Class movement. It supports President Hugo Chávez... (CMR) Socialist League (Venezuela) The Socialist League was a Venezuelan political party. It was established in 1973 in a split from the Revolutionary Left Movement, and merged into PSUV in 2007. The League was co-founded by Jorge Antonio Rodriguez; he was its Secretary General when he was murdered on 25 July 1976, having been... (LS) Venezuelan Popular Unity Venezuelan Popular Unity is a left-wing political party in Venezuela. It supports president Hugo Chávez. In the legislative elections, 4 December 2005, the party won 8 out of 165 seats in the National Assembly.... (UPV) |
Rosales
|
Movement for Socialism (Venezuela) Movement for Socialism is a center-left political party in Venezuela.-History:The Movement for Socialism is a social-democratic political party in Venezuela. MAS was founded in 1971 by a faction of the Communist Party of Venezuela, with a view to emphasising a socialist message... (MAS) Piedra Piedra is a hair disease caused by a fungus.Types include:* White piedra* Black piedra... Radical Cause The Radical Cause is a working class political party in Venezuela, part of the Venezuelan opposition to president Hugo Chavez... Red Flag Party Red Flag Party is a communist party in Venezuela. It was formed in 1970 by anti-revisionist members of the Movement of the Revolutionary Left... |
|
Polls
| Polling company | Date published | Hugo Chávez Hugo Chávez Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías is the 56th and current President of Venezuela, having held that position since 1999. He was formerly the leader of the Fifth Republic Movement political party from its foundation in 1997 until 2007, when he became the leader of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela... (%) |
Manuel Rosales Manuel Rosales Manuel Antonio Rosales Guerrero is a Venezuelan educator and politician and was the most prominent opposition candidate in the 2006 presidential election, losing to incumbent Hugo Chávez... (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evans/McDonough | 29 November 2006 | 57 | 38 |
| Fundación CEPS / Veneopsa ++ | 24 November 2006 | 59.7 | 39.6 |
| Zogby International Zogby International IBOPE Zogby International is an international market research, opinion polling firm founded in 1984 by John Zogby. The company polls and consults for a wide spectrum of business media, government, and political groups, and conducts public opinion research in more than 70 countries... |
24 November 2006 | 60 | 31 |
| Associated Press Associated Press The Associated Press is an American news agency. The AP is a cooperative owned by its contributing newspapers, radio and television stations in the United States, which both contribute stories to the AP and use material written by its staff journalists... -Ipsos Ipsos Ipsos S.A. is a global market research company headquartered in Paris, France. The Company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1 July 1999... |
23 November 2006 | 59 | 27 |
| Instituto Venezolano de Análisis de Datos | 23 November 2006 | 54.6 | 27.5 |
| Observatorio Hannah Arendt* | 18 November 2006 | 51 | 49 |
| Penn, Schoen & Berland Penn, Schoen & Berland Penn, Schoen Berland is a market research, political polling and strategic consulting firm with American offices in New York, Washington, Denver, Seattle, Los Angeles, Austin, and San Francisco, and international offices in London, Hong Kong, Beijing, Dubai, and Delhi. The firm was founded in 1975... |
15 November 2006 | 48 | 42 |
| Datanálisis | 15 November 2006 | 52.5 | 25.5 |
| Centro de Estudios Políticos y Sociales | 15 November 2006 | 58 | 40 |
| Consultores XXI | 15 November 2006 | 58.8 | 40 |
| Hinterlaces | 9 November 2006 | 45 | 27 |
| Evans/McDonough | 7 November 2006 | 57 | 35 |
| Instituto Venezolano de Análisis de Datos | 1 November 2006 | 53.2 | 28.1 |
| Keller y Asociados+ | 2 November 2006 | 52 | 48 |
| Escenarios | 1 November 2006 | 63.3 | 26 |
| Ceca | 23 October 2006 | 39.5 | 41.3 |
| Zogby International | 23 October 2006 | 59 | 24 |
| Instituto Venezolano de Análisis de Datos | 12 October 2006 | 51.5 | 22.7 |
| Penn, Schoen & Berland | 16 September 2006 | 50 | 37 |
| Datanálisis | 13 September 2006 | 58.2 | 17.4 |
| People's Daily People's Daily The People's Daily is a daily newspaper in the People's Republic of China. The paper is an organ of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China , published worldwide with a circulation of 3 to 4 million. In addition to its main Chinese-language edition, it has editions in English,... +++ |
25 August 2006 | 58.9 | 19.3 |
| Miami Herald +++ | 20 August 2006 | 35 | 25 |
(*) Technical tie
(+) Results are political segmentation, not voter intention
(++) This poll was attributed to the Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Complutense University of Madrid
The Complutense University of Madrid is a university in Madrid, and one of the oldest universities in the world. It is located on a sprawling campus that occupies the entirety of the Ciudad Universitaria district of Madrid, with annexes in the district of Somosaguas in the neighboring city of...
. University's authorities clarified that they have not knowledge about this study. One of members of the CEPS happen to be a university faculty.
(+++) Publisher does not mention polling company.
International markets
International markets largely saw a Chávez victory. Rafael de la Fuente of BNP ParibasBNP Paribas
BNP Paribas S.A. is a global banking group, headquartered in Paris, with its second global headquarters in London. In October 2010 BNP Paribas was ranked by Bloomberg and Forbes as the largest bank and largest company in the world by assets with over $3.1 trillion. It was formed through the merger...
stated "The market expects a Chávez victory, they don't even question it". Ricardo Amorim of WestLB
WestLB
WestLB AG is a European commercial bank based in Düsseldorf in Germany which is partly owned by the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The letters LB in the name stand for Landesbank. The Landesbanken are a group of state owned banks unique to Germany...
Research "The vision I see is that of a 20 point victory... We would be surprised if he does not win". Patrick Esteruelas of Euroasia Group saw Chávez winning by 60 percent. Also arguing that a high turnout would benefit Chávez, Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is an American multinational bulge bracket investment banking and securities firm that engages in global investment banking, securities, investment management, and other financial services primarily with institutional clients...
dismissed the close polling arguing, "Chávez is the favorite to win the election due to vast control of logistical and financial state resources, and influence over key institutions".
Election day timeline
Polling stations opened at 6:00 a.m. but newspaper El Universal reported that in some electoral centers, voters waited in line since 3:00 a.m. According to the National Electoral CouncilNational Electoral Council (Venezuela)
The National Electoral Council is one of the five independent branches of government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. It is the institution that oversees and guarantees the transparency of all elections and referendums in Venezuela at the local, regional, and national levels...
(CNE) director Humberto Castillo, the turnout in polling stations was massive, and the conditions were "normal" throughout the country. Polling station
Polling station
A polling place or polling station is where voters cast their ballots in elections.Since elections generally take place over a one- or two-day span on a periodic basis, often annual or longer, polling places are often located in facilities used for other purposes, such as schools, churches, sports...
were scheduled to close at 4:00 p.m. Around 5 p.m., CNE president Tibisay Lucena
Tibisay Lucena Ramírez
Tibisay Lucena is the president of the National Electoral Council or CNE, one of the five independent branches of government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. She was first elected to this post in 2006, and was reelected in 2009 for the 2009-2013 period.-Early Life and Education:Tibisay...
officially announced the end of the voting process, but gave orders to keep polling stations open if voters still remained in line.
Rosales' campaign team denounced irregularities in the closing of some voting booths, saying that Plan República—the armed forces sent to guard the electoral process—would not let some electoral centers be closed even though no voters remained in line. Rosales' spokesman also alerted about the reopening of already closed centers. CNE member Vicente Díaz later reaffirmed that all polling stations without voters in line must be closed, and that no booths under any circumstances could be reopened.
Results
The 29 January 2007 report from the CNE showed the following results:Reactions
Shortly after the first set of partial results was broadcast on the night of the election, Hugo Chávez showed up in the Balcón del Pueblo (SpanishSpanish language
Spanish , also known as Castilian , is a Romance language in the Ibero-Romance group that evolved from several languages and dialects in central-northern Iberia around the 9th century and gradually spread with the expansion of the Kingdom of Castile into central and southern Iberia during the...
for The People's Balcony) in the presidential palace to celebrate his victory and address his followers. Chávez announced that a new era has started in Bolivarian development, focused in the expansion of the Bolivarian Revolution
Bolivarian Revolution
The “Bolivarian Revolution” refers to a leftist social movement and political process in Venezuela led by Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, the founder of the Fifth Republic Movement...
.
That same night, Manuel Rosales made a brief speech to the nation, recognizing that he had been defeated. But he insisted that the two exit poll
Exit poll
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks whom the voter plans to vote for or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks whom the voter actually voted for. A similar poll conducted before actual...
studies his supporters had made, and the results of the audits, showed a narrower difference between him and Chávez than was reported by Lucena. Rosales said in his speech that he and his supporters "will be in streets to prove that the results by the National Electoral Council are not correct, that the gap is narrower that what presented."
The elections were monitored by The Carter Center
Carter Center
The Carter Center is a nongovernmental, not-for-profit organization founded in 1982 by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and his wife Rosalynn Carter. In partnership with Emory University, The Carter Center works to advance human rights and alleviate human suffering...
, who in an extensive report concluded that the elections were "fair, transparent and without serious irregularities". Carter Center praised "the civic spirit of the elections" and hoped that "other Latin American nations will follow Venezuela's example in the future."
A study conducted by Ezequiel Zamora (former vicepresident of the CNE), Freddy Malpica (former rector of the Universidad Simón Bolívar
Universidad Simón Bolívar
Simón Bolívar University or USB, is a public institution located in Miranda State, Venezuela with scientific and technological orientation....
), Guillermo Salas (USB professor), Jorge Tamayo (UCV professor), Ramiro Esparragoza (UCV professor), four statistics experts and three computer engineers concluded in January 2007 that the 2006 Presidential elections presented "important statistical inconsistencies, despite the fact that the opposition candidate recognized the results". They argued that the elections results of many electoral centers showed a very regular statistical distribution of the votes in favor of Rosales in comparison with the dispersion of the votes for Chávez. This suggest that the regularities are the possible result of numerical ceilings embedded in the voting machines. Also there seems to be a regular statistical abstention of 25% in most electoral centers and no signs of dispersion. They have recommended further studies of the data in order to understand the deficiencies of the Venezuelan electoral system and in order to have a "minimum of transparency" in any future electoral process.
Electoral audits
Even though a fair number of international observers were present, the CNENational Electoral Council (Venezuela)
The National Electoral Council is one of the five independent branches of government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. It is the institution that oversees and guarantees the transparency of all elections and referendums in Venezuela at the local, regional, and national levels...
instituted an open and public series of audits of the vote results. Each one of the 11,118 automated polling places was equipped with multiple high-tech touch-screen
Touchscreen
A touchscreen is an electronic visual display that can detect the presence and location of a touch within the display area. The term generally refers to touching the display of the device with a finger or hand. Touchscreens can also sense other passive objects, such as a stylus...
DRE voting machine
DRE voting machine
A direct-recording electronic voting machine records votes by means of a ballot display provided with mechanical or electro-optical components that can be activated by the voter ; that processes data by means of a computer program; and that records voting data and ballot images in memory components...
s, one to a "mesa electoral", or voting "table". In total, 32,331 voting machines were in use country-wide. After the vote is cast, each machine prints out a paper ballot
Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail
Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail or Verified Paper Record is intended as an independent verification system for voting machines designed to allow voters to verify that their vote was cast correctly, to detect possible election fraud or malfunction, and to provide a means to audit the stored...
, or VVPAT, which is inspected by the voter and deposited in a ballot box belonging to the machine's table. The voting machines perform in a stand-alone fashion, disconnected from any network until the polls close. Voting session closure at each of the voting stations in a given polling center is determined either by the lack of further voters after the lines have emptied, or by the hour, at the discretion of the president of the voting table.
Tally scrutinization
After the polls close at any voting table, the following event are performed step by step.- The DRE voting machineDRE voting machineA direct-recording electronic voting machine records votes by means of a ballot display provided with mechanical or electro-optical components that can be activated by the voter ; that processes data by means of a computer program; and that records voting data and ballot images in memory components...
is ordered to close the voting session. - Tally scrutinization announced.
- Each voting machine prints an original tally sheet, each has a voter total and the number of votes cast for each candidate cast in that particular machine/table.
- Each voting machine is connected to the network and the results are sent to the vote counting center.
- Nine extra tally sheets are printed and distributed to the staff and the six representatives of the candidates that received the most votes.
- With the original tally sheet in hand the total number of votes cast is compared to the signed up sheet or electoral notebook. Finally, for those machines chosen for the audit (see below) the electoral ballots, or paper trails, are counted one by one to determine if they add up to the totals in the tally sheet. Any anomaly is mentioned in the tally sheet report, signed by the staff and auditors, and then sealed and given to the military for delivery to the CNE.
Source CNE
National Electoral Council (Venezuela)
The National Electoral Council is one of the five independent branches of government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. It is the institution that oversees and guarantees the transparency of all elections and referendums in Venezuela at the local, regional, and national levels...
Random paper ballot audit
Once the tally scrutinization is complete the staff proceeds to perform a random paper ballot audit of 54.31% of the machines. Each voting center can have anywhere from one to twelve voting machines, occasionally up to fifteen. The staff randomly selects the tables/machines by drawing a number out of a paper hat. The size of the draw is dependent on the number of tables/machines.| Number of Machines | Number of Machines to be Audited | Total Machines audited |
|---|---|---|
| 1 to 2 | 1 | 5,795 |
| 3 to 5 | 2 | 6,002 |
| 6 to 8 | 3 | 4,011 |
| 9 to 10 | 4 | 980 |
| More than 10 | 5 | 770 |
Source CNE
National Electoral Council (Venezuela)
The National Electoral Council is one of the five independent branches of government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. It is the institution that oversees and guarantees the transparency of all elections and referendums in Venezuela at the local, regional, and national levels...
| Audited Total | Machine Universe | Percentage audited |
|---|---|---|
| 17,558 | 32,331 | 54.31% |
Source CNE
National Electoral Council (Venezuela)
The National Electoral Council is one of the five independent branches of government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. It is the institution that oversees and guarantees the transparency of all elections and referendums in Venezuela at the local, regional, and national levels...
The following procedure occurs step by step
- Polls closed
- Tally scrutinization finishes
- Random paper ballot audit announced
- The machines are randomly selected drawing numbers out of a paper hat
- The machine's serial number is recorded
- The corresponding paper ballot box is selected and opened
- The paper ballots results for each candidate are openly counted
- With the original tally printed from the electronic results, both results are audited
- Any anomaly (even if by one vote) is recorded in the audit report
- The original audit report is signed by staff and observers, officially sealed and handed to the military for delivery to the CNE
- Copies are handed over to the representatives of the two highest vote getters.
Source CNE
National Electoral Council (Venezuela)
The National Electoral Council is one of the five independent branches of government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. It is the institution that oversees and guarantees the transparency of all elections and referendums in Venezuela at the local, regional, and national levels...
Concerns over the Electoral Registry
Opposition candidates and political parties have voiced concerns over the possible inaccuracies of the national electoral registry. Previous elections have shown that there might be a great number of deceased people still on the records. The CNENational Electoral Council (Venezuela)
The National Electoral Council is one of the five independent branches of government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. It is the institution that oversees and guarantees the transparency of all elections and referendums in Venezuela at the local, regional, and national levels...
has audited the Registry on multiple occasions; the first occurred in early 2006 by IIDH-CAPEL (Costa Rican Human Right org) that concluded there was nothing found that delegitimized the registry. A second review process started in mid-2006 where the CNE asked all the public universities of Venezuela to conduct also an external review of the electoral registry. However, the review project presented by the Central University of Venezuela
Central University of Venezuela
The Central University of Venezuela is a premier public University of Venezuela located in Caracas...
, Simón Bolívar University
Universidad Simón Bolívar
Simón Bolívar University or USB, is a public institution located in Miranda State, Venezuela with scientific and technological orientation....
and the Andrés Bello Catholic University
Universidad Católica Andrés Bello
Universidad Católica Andrés Bello is a private university in Venezuela. One of the biggest universities in Venezuela, UCAB has campuses in several cities, such as Caracas , Los Teques, Guayana and Coro....
was rejected by the CNE. One of the proposed methods by these institutions was comparing census data with the electoral registry. They nevertheless ran their audit in parallel and the representative of the three institutions José Miguel Bernardo concluded "In practice [these errors] do not favor the government and their distribution is uniform." A second mathematician involved in the audit, Raúl Jiménez, concluded "One must be responsible. The electoral registry is a disaster and the CNE has done nothing to improve it, but there is nothing to indicate a political intention in the anomalies."
The CNE performed the third audit with the aid of seven other public universities and with the Carter Center and two senators from the Belgian parliament observing the audit.
The senators were Jacinta de Roeck, independent, and Sfia Bouarfa
Sfia Bouarfa
Sfia Bouarfa born 14 October 1950 in Jerada, Morocco) is a Belgian politician and a member of the PS. Since 1995 she is a Member of the Parliament of the Brussels-Capital Region and a Member of the Parliament of the French Community. She was also a Community Senator appointed by the Parliament of...
, from the French-speaking Socialist Party
Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)
The Socialist Party is a Francophone social-democratic political party in Belgium. As of the 2010 elections, it is the second largest party in the Belgian Chamber of Representatives and the largest Francophone party...
.
In June 2006, a privately funded preliminary study by Genaro Mosquera, a statistics
Statistics
Statistics is the study of the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of data. It deals with all aspects of this, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments....
professor at the Central University and member of the political party Democratic Action
Democratic Action
Democratic Action is a centrist Venezuelan political party established in 1941. The party and its antecedents played an important role in the early years of Venezuelan democracy, and led the government during Venezuela's first democratic period...
,
claimed that in the last three years the registry grew 27% compare to a population growth of only 7.3% during those years and also a much larger growth than the regular increasse of the registry of 12% every five years between 1948 and 2000. On of the flagship government Bolivarian Missions
Bolivarian Missions
The Bolivarian Missions are a series of social justice, social welfare, anti-poverty, educational, electoral and military recruiting programs implemented under the administration of the current Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez...
was Mission Identidad
Mission Identidad
Mission Identidad is one of the Bolivarian Missions implemented by current Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez. This program provides Venezuelan national identity cards to facilitate access to the social services provided by the other Missions.Misión Identidad mainly seeks to ease the process of...
, where roughly 5 million citizens were awarded an ID card and the right to register and vote. Also, by comparing the official population numbers provided with by the Office of National Statistics with the CNE registry, there seems to be more register voters of 45 years of age and over than actual population.
According to NGO Ojo Electoral (Electoral Eye) preliminary results of a comparison between the Electoral Registry and demographic projections of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) suggests that inconsistencies in the voter data base cannot modify the results of the election.
Other concerns
The opposition is denouncing unfair pressure by the government against those governmental workers who might not want to support the president. They released a video that showed energy minister and head of PDVSA, Rafael RamírezRafael Ramírez (Venezuela)
Rafael Darío Ramírez Carreño is a Venezuelan engineer and politician. He is currently the president of the Venezuelan state-owned petroleum-extraction company PDVSA. In the past, Ramírez had also served as the Venezuelan Minister of Energy and Mines for a time....
, telling state oil workers to back President Hugo Chávez or to leave their jobs. He also said PDVSA is red "from top to bottom"(PDVSA es roja, rojita de arriba abajo). He also said that PDVSA's "workers are with this revolution, and those who aren't should go somewhere else. Go to Miami". Opposition media outlets have been repeating the 14-minute video over and over again. President Chávez said he supported the PDVSA director and recommended him to make the same speech to oil workers 100 times a day.
The CNE opened an investigation into Rafael Ramírez following the protests from the opposition and Ramírez was eventually fined.
See also
- Venezuelan Election 2006 - Election news from Angus Reid Global Monitor
- National Electoral CouncilNational Electoral Council (Venezuela)The National Electoral Council is one of the five independent branches of government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. It is the institution that oversees and guarantees the transparency of all elections and referendums in Venezuela at the local, regional, and national levels...
(CNE)