The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall
Encyclopedia
The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall (Simon and Schuster: 2006) is a book by political scientist Ian Bremmer
. It was named a "Book of the Year" in 2006 by The Economist
.
Bremmer's J Curve describes the relationship between a country's openness and its stability; focusing on the notion that while many countries are stable because they are open (the United States
, France
, Japan
), others are stable because they are closed (North Korea
, Cuba
, Iraq
under Saddam Hussein
). According to Bremmer, a government's motivations differ dramatically depending on where they fall on the J curve.
The x-axis of the political J-Curve graph measures the "openness" (of freedom) of the State in question, and the y-axis measures the stability of that same state. It suggests that those states that are 'closed'/undemocratic/unfree (such as the Communist dictatorship
s of China
and Cuba
) are very stable; however, as one progresses right, along the x-axis, it is evident that stability (for relatively short period of time in the lengthy life of nations) decreases, creating a dip in the graph, until beginning to pick up again as the 'openness' of a state increases; at the other end of the graph to closed states are the open states of the West
, such as the United States of America or the United Kingdom
. Thus, a J-shaped curve is formed.
States can travel both forward (right) and backwards (left) along this J-curve, and so stability and openness are never secure. The J is steeper on the left hand side, as it is easier for a leader in a failed state to create stability by closing the country than to build a civil society and establish accountable institutions; the curve is higher on the far right than left because states that prevail in opening their societies (Eastern Europe
, for example) ultimately become more stable than authoritarian regimes.
Bremmer's entire curve can shift up or down depending on economic resources available to the government in question. Therefore, Saudi Arabia
's relative stability at every point along the curve rises or falls depending on the price of oil; China
's curve, meanwhile, analogously depends on the country's economic growth.
mentioned The J Curve as a book on his nightstand, during the book tour for his treatise Palestine Peace Not Apartheid
.
Maldives
Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed
used The J Curve to describe the process and the challenges of democratization in his country.
Ian Bremmer
Ian Bremmer is an American political scientist specializing in US foreign policy, states in transition, and global political risk. He is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a leading global political risk research and consulting firm...
. It was named a "Book of the Year" in 2006 by The Economist
The Economist
The Economist is an English-language weekly news and international affairs publication owned by The Economist Newspaper Ltd. and edited in offices in the City of Westminster, London, England. Continuous publication began under founder James Wilson in September 1843...
.
Bremmer's J Curve describes the relationship between a country's openness and its stability; focusing on the notion that while many countries are stable because they are open (the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
, France
France
The French Republic , The French Republic , The French Republic , (commonly known as France , is a unitary semi-presidential republic in Western Europe with several overseas territories and islands located on other continents and in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans. Metropolitan France...
, Japan
Japan
Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...
), others are stable because they are closed (North Korea
North Korea
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea , , is a country in East Asia, occupying the northern half of the Korean Peninsula. Its capital and largest city is Pyongyang. The Korean Demilitarized Zone serves as the buffer zone between North Korea and South Korea...
, Cuba
Cuba
The Republic of Cuba is an island nation in the Caribbean. The nation of Cuba consists of the main island of Cuba, the Isla de la Juventud, and several archipelagos. Havana is the largest city in Cuba and the country's capital. Santiago de Cuba is the second largest city...
, Iraq
Iraq
Iraq ; officially the Republic of Iraq is a country in Western Asia spanning most of the northwestern end of the Zagros mountain range, the eastern part of the Syrian Desert and the northern part of the Arabian Desert....
under Saddam Hussein
Saddam Hussein
Saddam Hussein Abd al-Majid al-Tikriti was the fifth President of Iraq, serving in this capacity from 16 July 1979 until 9 April 2003...
). According to Bremmer, a government's motivations differ dramatically depending on where they fall on the J curve.
The J Curve model
The x-axis of the political J-Curve graph measures the "openness" (of freedom) of the State in question, and the y-axis measures the stability of that same state. It suggests that those states that are 'closed'/undemocratic/unfree (such as the Communist dictatorship
Dictatorship
A dictatorship is defined as an autocratic form of government in which the government is ruled by an individual, the dictator. It has three possible meanings:...
s of China
People's Republic of China
China , officially the People's Republic of China , is the most populous country in the world, with over 1.3 billion citizens. Located in East Asia, the country covers approximately 9.6 million square kilometres...
and Cuba
Cuba
The Republic of Cuba is an island nation in the Caribbean. The nation of Cuba consists of the main island of Cuba, the Isla de la Juventud, and several archipelagos. Havana is the largest city in Cuba and the country's capital. Santiago de Cuba is the second largest city...
) are very stable; however, as one progresses right, along the x-axis, it is evident that stability (for relatively short period of time in the lengthy life of nations) decreases, creating a dip in the graph, until beginning to pick up again as the 'openness' of a state increases; at the other end of the graph to closed states are the open states of the West
Western world
The Western world, also known as the West and the Occident , is a term referring to the countries of Western Europe , the countries of the Americas, as well all countries of Northern and Central Europe, Australia and New Zealand...
, such as the United States of America or the United Kingdom
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...
. Thus, a J-shaped curve is formed.
States can travel both forward (right) and backwards (left) along this J-curve, and so stability and openness are never secure. The J is steeper on the left hand side, as it is easier for a leader in a failed state to create stability by closing the country than to build a civil society and establish accountable institutions; the curve is higher on the far right than left because states that prevail in opening their societies (Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe
Eastern Europe is the eastern part of Europe. The term has widely disparate geopolitical, geographical, cultural and socioeconomic readings, which makes it highly context-dependent and even volatile, and there are "almost as many definitions of Eastern Europe as there are scholars of the region"...
, for example) ultimately become more stable than authoritarian regimes.
Bremmer's entire curve can shift up or down depending on economic resources available to the government in question. Therefore, Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia , commonly known in British English as Saudi Arabia and in Arabic as as-Sa‘ūdiyyah , is the largest state in Western Asia by land area, constituting the bulk of the Arabian Peninsula, and the second-largest in the Arab World...
's relative stability at every point along the curve rises or falls depending on the price of oil; China
China
Chinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture...
's curve, meanwhile, analogously depends on the country's economic growth.
Quotes by the author
Trivia
Former President Jimmy CarterJimmy Carter
James Earl "Jimmy" Carter, Jr. is an American politician who served as the 39th President of the United States and was the recipient of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize, the only U.S. President to have received the Prize after leaving office...
mentioned The J Curve as a book on his nightstand, during the book tour for his treatise Palestine Peace Not Apartheid
Palestine Peace Not Apartheid
Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid is a New York Times Best Seller book written by Jimmy Carter, 39th President of the United States and winner of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize. It was published by Simon and Schuster in November 2006....
.
Maldives
Maldives
The Maldives , , officially Republic of Maldives , also referred to as the Maldive Islands, is an island nation in the Indian Ocean formed by a double chain of twenty-six atolls oriented north-south off India's Lakshadweep islands, between Minicoy Island and...
Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed
Ahmed Shaheed
Ahmed Shaheed is a Maldivian politician. He served as Minister of Foreign Affairs from November 2008 to December 2010; previously, he had served as Minister of Foreign Affairs for two years, from 14 July 2005 until August 20, 2007....
used The J Curve to describe the process and the challenges of democratization in his country.
Applications
- Discussion of the J Curve and religious institutions
- David Agpar proposes The J Curve for an Iraq solution
- Richard Beck on The J Curve and the Missional Church
- The J Curve and organizational change
- Indian Express on The J Curve and China
- The J Curve and Israel
- The J Curve and Malaysia
- The J Curve and Zimbabwe
- The J Curve and Iran
- The J Curve and Getting Better With Women
External links
- Official website
- J Curve on The Daily ShowThe Daily ShowThe Daily Show , is an American late night satirical television program airing each Monday through Thursday on Comedy Central. The half-hour long show premiered on July 21, 1996, and was hosted by Craig Kilborn until December 1998...
- The J Curve on BBCBBCThe British Broadcasting Corporation is a British public service broadcaster. Its headquarters is at Broadcasting House in the City of Westminster, London. It is the largest broadcaster in the world, with about 23,000 staff...
NewsnightNewsnightNewsnight is a BBC Television current affairs programme noted for its in-depth analysis and often robust cross-examination of senior politicians. Jeremy Paxman has been its main presenter for over two decades....
Bookclub - The J Curve: Bremmer at the Council on Foreign RelationsCouncil on Foreign RelationsThe Council on Foreign Relations is an American nonprofit nonpartisan membership organization, publisher, and think tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy and international affairs...
- Bill Emmott and Fareed Zakaria on The J Curve in Slate (magazine)Slate (magazine)Slate is a US-based English language online current affairs and culture magazine created in 1996 by former New Republic editor Michael Kinsley, initially under the ownership of Microsoft as part of MSN. On 21 December 2004 it was purchased by the Washington Post Company...
- J Curve in the Financial TimesFinancial TimesThe Financial Times is an international business newspaper. It is a morning daily newspaper published in London and printed in 24 cities around the world. Its primary rival is the Wall Street Journal, published in New York City....
- J Curve in the Washington Post
- J Curve in US News and World Report
- J Curve in The TimesThe TimesThe Times is a British daily national newspaper, first published in London in 1785 under the title The Daily Universal Register . The Times and its sister paper The Sunday Times are published by Times Newspapers Limited, a subsidiary since 1981 of News International...
- The J Curve in the Daily Telegraph
Reviews
- The Geometry of Geopolitics. Review in The EconomistThe EconomistThe Economist is an English-language weekly news and international affairs publication owned by The Economist Newspaper Ltd. and edited in offices in the City of Westminster, London, England. Continuous publication began under founder James Wilson in September 1843...
. August 31, 2006. - Graphing the World, by Michael Freedman. Review in ForbesForbesForbes is an American publishing and media company. Its flagship publication, the Forbes magazine, is published biweekly. Its primary competitors in the national business magazine category are Fortune, which is also published biweekly, and Business Week...
. September 15, 2006. - Curve an Effective Tool in US Foreign Policy, by Cecil Johnson. Review in The Boston GlobeThe Boston GlobeThe Boston Globe is an American daily newspaper based in Boston, Massachusetts. The Boston Globe has been owned by The New York Times Company since 1993...
. October 1, 2006. - Looking at the World Through Shape of a J, by Tim Worstall. Review in The Philadelphia InquirerThe Philadelphia InquirerThe Philadelphia Inquirer is a morning daily newspaper that serves the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area of the United States. The newspaper was founded by John R. Walker and John Norvell in June 1829 as The Pennsylvania Inquirer and is the third-oldest surviving daily newspaper in the...
. September 3, 2006. - Dangerous Curve Ahead, by James Steinberg. Review in Austin American-StatesmanAustin American-StatesmanThe Austin American-Statesman is the major daily newspaper for Austin, the capital city of Texas. It is an award-winning publication owned by Cox Enterprises. The Newspaper places focus on issues affecting Austin and the Central Texas region....
. September 24, 2006. - Capital Thoughts, by Walter Russell Mead. Review in Financial TimesFinancial TimesThe Financial Times is an international business newspaper. It is a morning daily newspaper published in London and printed in 24 cities around the world. Its primary rival is the Wall Street Journal, published in New York City....
. October 28, 2006.