Brokered convention
Encyclopedia
A brokered convention is a situation in United States
politics in which there are not enough delegates 'won' during the presidential primary and caucus
elections for a single candidate to have a pre-existing majority, during the first official vote for a political party's presidential-candidate at its nominating convention
.
Once the first ballot, or vote, has occurred, and no candidate has a majority of the delegates' votes, the convention is then considered brokered; thereafter, the nomination is decided through a process of alternating political horse-trading
, and additional re-votes. In this circumstance, all regular delegates (who, previously, were pledged to the candidate who had won their respective state's primary or caucus election) are "released," and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate before the next round of balloting. It is hoped that this 'freedom' will result in a re-vote resulting in a clear majority of delegates for one candidate.
Superdelegate
votes are counted on the first ballot. Although the term "brokered convention" is sometimes used to refer to a convention where the outcome is decided by superdelegate votes rather than pledged delegates alone, this is not the original sense of the term. Like a brokered convention, the potentially decisive role played by superdelegates can often go against the popular vote from the primaries and caucuses.
) and Thomas Dewey
(of the 1948 Republican Party
) were the most recent "brokered convention" presidential nominees. The last winning U.S. presidential nominee produced by a brokered convention was Franklin D. Roosevelt
, in 1932.
there had been speculation that the Democratic Party's national convention might be brokered, or at least that the convention may commence without a presumptive nominee
.
For the Democrats a brokered convention was considered possible, as it was unclear for a time whether either of the two frontrunners, Senator Barack Obama
and Senator Hillary Clinton, would be able to win a majority of pledged delegates before the convention. The only other candidate with pledged delegates was John Edwards
, with 0.5% of the delegates.
The provisos given above do not consider the fact that Michigan
and Florida's
delegates were originally excluded, since they held their primaries too early in violation of party rules. However, through a compromise by the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, Michigan and Florida delegates were seated and receive 0.5 votes per delegate. Clinton's Michigan campaign chair James Blanchard
, argued that both states should have their full delegate slates restored; David Bonior who was now on Obama's team pointed out that these primaries were not proper contests - Clinton was the only presidential nominee that campaigned and therefore won most of the popular vote in these states - and that the DNC compromise was a concession on their part.
While falling behind Obama in the popular vote and delegates won through primaries and caucuses, Clinton initially enjoyed a large lead in superdelegates and maintained that they believed that she was the stronger candidate in the general election. Nonetheless, Obama criticized Clinton's rationale saying that the superdelegates' decisive role could be seen as undemocratic if it went against the popular vote. During the last week of primaries, DNC
Chairman Howard Dean
was also pressuring undecided superdelegates to commit to either remaining presidential candidate, in order to avert the potentially divisive contest carrying on in the summer. Clinton opposed Dean's initiative, because she planned to continue all the way to the convention where the undecided superdelegates would be her last chance to get the nomination, knowing that she could not overtake Obama's lead in the remaining primaries. With Obama taking North Carolina by double digits and almost winning the crucial blue-collar state of Indiana on Super Tuesday
III, ensuring him the majority of delegates and popular vote from the primaries, more and more superdelegates began committing to him leading up to the June 3 contests. As a result, on June 3, Obama was declared the presumptive nominee that evening, with pledged delegates from Montana and South Dakota. Clinton conceded on June 7, urging her supporters to support Obama in the general election, and so no brokered convention resulted for the Democrats in 2008.
For the Republicans, a brokered convention was also forecast because of the number of strong candidates and their different geographic bases. The number of "winner take all" states benefits candidates with strong regional support. In addition, the weakened power of President Bush to force candidates out of the race results in fewer levels of influence for them. With John McCain
winning the majority of delegates on Super Tuesday and the subsequent withdrawal of his strongest challenger, Mitt Romney
, the brokered convention was averted.
First, candidates tend to get momentum as they go through the process because of the bandwagon effect
. Thus, one or two candidates will be portrayed by the media to voters as the front runner(s) as a result of their placement in the first primaries and caucuses, and as also-ran candidates drop out, their supporters will tend to vote for the leaders. Theorists have identified two types of political momentum, piecemeal and all-at-once, with different impacts on front-runners and those right behind them.
Secondly, political parties wish to avoid the negative publicity from a brokered convention as well as to maximize the amount of time the nominee has to campaign for the presidency itself (there are barely two months between the major parties' conventions and Election Day).
Lastly, the candidate nominated from the brokered convention will be seen as weak and must overcome additional hurdles in a short time for the general election.
Especially on account of the desire to foster party unity in the months leading up to Election Day
, it is considered possible if not probable that any "brokering" that may be required for a future presidential convention will actually take place in the weeks and months leading up to the convention, once it becomes clear that no candidate will likely secure a majority of delegates without an agreement with one or more rivals. Such an agreement would likely commit the front runner to make some form of concession(s) in return, such as selecting the former rival as his/her vice presidential nominee.
depicts the brokered convention of an unnamed political party, with two candidates vying for the support of a previous President.
In the last two episodes of season six of The West Wing, the Democratic party fought through a brokered convention, with dark horse
candidate Matthew Santos (Jimmy Smits
) eventually prevailing.
In the Hold Me in Paradise
episode of Boardwalk Empire, "Nucky" Thompson is the de facto
leader of the New Jersey
Republican delegation during the 1920 Presidential Election
held in Chicago
. In the episode, Nucky commits his delegation to Warren G. Harding
in exchange for an unfavorable outcome for an instate rival.
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
politics in which there are not enough delegates 'won' during the presidential primary and caucus
United States presidential primary
The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses is one of the first steps in the process of electing the President of the United States of America. The primary elections are run by state and local governments, while caucuses are private events run by the political parties...
elections for a single candidate to have a pre-existing majority, during the first official vote for a political party's presidential-candidate at its nominating convention
United States presidential nominating convention
A United States presidential nominating convention is a political convention held every four years in the United States by most of the political parties who will be fielding nominees in the upcoming U.S. presidential election...
.
Once the first ballot, or vote, has occurred, and no candidate has a majority of the delegates' votes, the convention is then considered brokered; thereafter, the nomination is decided through a process of alternating political horse-trading
Smoke-filled room
In U.S. political slang, a smoke-filled room is a term for a secret political gathering or round table style decision-making process. The phrase is generally used to suggest a cabal of powerful or well-connected, cigar-smoking men such as the Bilderberg group meeting privately to nominate a dark...
, and additional re-votes. In this circumstance, all regular delegates (who, previously, were pledged to the candidate who had won their respective state's primary or caucus election) are "released," and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate before the next round of balloting. It is hoped that this 'freedom' will result in a re-vote resulting in a clear majority of delegates for one candidate.
Superdelegate
Superdelegate
"Superdelegate" is an informal term commonly used for some of the delegates to the Democratic National Convention, the presidential nominating convention of the United States Democratic Party....
votes are counted on the first ballot. Although the term "brokered convention" is sometimes used to refer to a convention where the outcome is decided by superdelegate votes rather than pledged delegates alone, this is not the original sense of the term. Like a brokered convention, the potentially decisive role played by superdelegates can often go against the popular vote from the primaries and caucuses.
Brokered conventions
Before the era of presidential primary elections, political party conventions were routinely brokered. Adlai Stevenson (of the 1952 Democratic PartyDemocratic Party (United States)
The Democratic Party is one of two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Republican Party. The party's socially liberal and progressive platform is largely considered center-left in the U.S. political spectrum. The party has the lengthiest record of continuous...
) and Thomas Dewey
Thomas Dewey
Thomas Edmund Dewey was the 47th Governor of New York . In 1944 and 1948, he was the Republican candidate for President, but lost both times. He led the liberal faction of the Republican Party, in which he fought conservative Ohio Senator Robert A. Taft...
(of the 1948 Republican Party
Republican Party (United States)
The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Democratic Party. Founded by anti-slavery expansion activists in 1854, it is often called the GOP . The party's platform generally reflects American conservatism in the U.S...
) were the most recent "brokered convention" presidential nominees. The last winning U.S. presidential nominee produced by a brokered convention was Franklin D. Roosevelt
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt , also known by his initials, FDR, was the 32nd President of the United States and a central figure in world events during the mid-20th century, leading the United States during a time of worldwide economic crisis and world war...
, in 1932.
Conventions which were close to being brokered
Since 1952, there have been many years when brokered conventions were projected but did not come to pass:- The Democratic Party's 1968United States presidential election, 1968The United States presidential election of 1968 was the 46th quadrennial United States presidential election. Coming four years after Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson won in a historic landslide, it saw Johnson forced out of the race and Republican Richard Nixon elected...
convention might have been brokered. Robert F. KennedyRobert F. KennedyRobert Francis "Bobby" Kennedy , also referred to by his initials RFK, was an American politician, a Democratic senator from New York, and a noted civil rights activist. An icon of modern American liberalism and member of the Kennedy family, he was a younger brother of President John F...
had won most of the primaries held so far, though back then they did not determine the presidential nominee. President Lyndon B. JohnsonLyndon B. JohnsonLyndon Baines Johnson , often referred to as LBJ, was the 36th President of the United States after his service as the 37th Vice President of the United States...
, who had decided against running for a second term, still controlled most of the party machinery and did use it in support of Vice President Hubert HumphreyHubert HumphreyHubert Horatio Humphrey, Jr. , served under President Lyndon B. Johnson as the 38th Vice President of the United States. Humphrey twice served as a United States Senator from Minnesota, and served as Democratic Majority Whip. He was a founder of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and...
, who did not contest the primaries. Had Kennedy not been assassinated, that would have meant that the convention may have been divided between him and Humphrey's supporters.
- In 1976, the Republican primariesRepublican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 1976The 1976 Republican presidential primaries were the selection process by which voters of the Republican Party chose its nominee for President of the United States in the 1976 U.S. presidential election...
gave President Gerald FordGerald FordGerald Rudolph "Jerry" Ford, Jr. was the 38th President of the United States, serving from 1974 to 1977, and the 40th Vice President of the United States serving from 1973 to 1974...
a slight lead in the popular vote and delegates entering the Republican National Convention1976 Republican National ConventionThe 1976 National Convention of the Republican Party of the United States met at Kemper Arena in Kansas City, Missouri, from August 16 to August 19, 1976. The convention nominated incumbent Gerald Ford for President, but only after narrowly defeating a strong challenge from former California...
but not enough delegates to secure the nomination. A brokered convention was predicted but Ford managed to receive the necessary support on the first ballot to edge Ronald ReaganRonald ReaganRonald Wilson Reagan was the 40th President of the United States , the 33rd Governor of California and, prior to that, a radio, film and television actor....
. This is the last time a Republican presidential convention opened without the nominee having already been decided in the primaries.
- In 1984, as a result of the Democratic primariesDemocratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 1984The 1984 Democratic presidential primaries were the selection process by which voters of the Democratic Party chose its nominee for President of the United States in the 1984 U.S. presidential election...
, former Vice President Walter MondaleWalter MondaleWalter Frederick "Fritz" Mondale is an American Democratic Party politician, who served as the 42nd Vice President of the United States , under President Jimmy Carter, and as a United States Senator for Minnesota...
was the clear frontrunner though he remained 40 delegates short of clinching the nomination. This had to be formalized at the convention1984 Democratic National ConventionThe 1984 National Convention of the U.S. Democratic Party was held at the Moscone Center in San Francisco, California from July 16 to July 19, 1984, to select a candidate for the 1984 United States presidential election. At the convention Walter Mondale was nominated for President and Geraldine...
, being the last time that any presidential convention opened without the nominee having already been decided in the primaries. However, a convention fight was unlikely as rival Gary HartGary HartGary Hart is an American politician, lawyer, author, professor and commentator. He served as a Democratic Senator representing Colorado , and ran in the U.S...
was lobbying for the Vice Presidential slot on the ticket, being resigned to the likely possibility that Mondale would receive the nomination. Mondale indeed received the overwhelming support of superdelegateSuperdelegate"Superdelegate" is an informal term commonly used for some of the delegates to the Democratic National Convention, the presidential nominating convention of the United States Democratic Party....
s on the first ballot to become the Democratic presidential candidate.
- In 1988, a brokered convention was predicted for the Democrats. There was initially no clear frontrunner since Gary HartGary HartGary Hart is an American politician, lawyer, author, professor and commentator. He served as a Democratic Senator representing Colorado , and ran in the U.S...
had withdrawn. Also, Michael DukakisMichael DukakisMichael Stanley Dukakis served as the 65th and 67th Governor of Massachusetts from 1975–1979 and from 1983–1991, and was the Democratic presidential nominee in 1988. He was born to Greek immigrants in Brookline, Massachusetts, also the birthplace of John F. Kennedy, and was the longest serving...
, Al GoreAl GoreAlbert Arnold "Al" Gore, Jr. served as the 45th Vice President of the United States , under President Bill Clinton. He was the Democratic Party's nominee for President in the 2000 U.S. presidential election....
, and Jesse JacksonJesse JacksonJesse Louis Jackson, Sr. is an African-American civil rights activist and Baptist minister. He was a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1984 and 1988 and served as shadow senator for the District of Columbia from 1991 to 1997. He was the founder of both entities that merged to...
each won multiple primariesDemocratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 1988The 1988 Democratic presidential primaries were the selection process by which voters of the Democratic Party chose its nominee for President of the United States in the 1988 U.S. presidential election...
on Super TuesdaySuper TuesdayIn the United States, Super Tuesday, in general, refers to the Tuesday in February or March of a presidential election year when the greatest number of states hold primary elections to select delegates to national conventions at which each party's presidential candidates are officially nominated...
. Dukakis was named the frontrunner by the media, as he drew support from all sections of the nation while other candidates' support was largely limited to their native regions, so he maintained the momentum to secure the nomination in the next round of primaries.
2008 presidential election
For the 2008 electionUnited States presidential election, 2008
The United States presidential election of 2008 was the 56th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on November 4, 2008. Democrat Barack Obama, then the junior United States Senator from Illinois, defeated Republican John McCain, the senior U.S. Senator from Arizona. Obama received 365...
there had been speculation that the Democratic Party's national convention might be brokered, or at least that the convention may commence without a presumptive nominee
Presumptive nominee
In politics, the presumptive nominee is a political candidate who is all but assured of his or her party's nomination, but has not yet been formally nominated...
.
For the Democrats a brokered convention was considered possible, as it was unclear for a time whether either of the two frontrunners, Senator Barack Obama
Barack Obama
Barack Hussein Obama II is the 44th and current President of the United States. He is the first African American to hold the office. Obama previously served as a United States Senator from Illinois, from January 2005 until he resigned following his victory in the 2008 presidential election.Born in...
and Senator Hillary Clinton, would be able to win a majority of pledged delegates before the convention. The only other candidate with pledged delegates was John Edwards
John Edwards
Johnny Reid "John" Edwards is an American politician, who served as a U.S. Senator from North Carolina. He was the Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2004, and was a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004 and 2008.He defeated incumbent Republican Lauch Faircloth in...
, with 0.5% of the delegates.
The provisos given above do not consider the fact that Michigan
Michigan Democratic primary, 2008
The Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary took place January 15, 2008. Originally, the state had 156 delegates up for grabs that were to be awarded in the following way: 83 delegates were to be awarded based on the winner in each of Michigan's 15 congressional districts while an additional 45...
and Florida's
Florida Democratic primary, 2008
The Florida Democratic Presidential primary took place on January 29, 2008. Originally, the state had 185 delegates up for grabs that were to be awarded in the following way: 121 delegates were to be awarded based on the winner in each of Florida's 25 congressional districts while an additional 64...
delegates were originally excluded, since they held their primaries too early in violation of party rules. However, through a compromise by the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, Michigan and Florida delegates were seated and receive 0.5 votes per delegate. Clinton's Michigan campaign chair James Blanchard
James Blanchard
James Johnston "Jim" Blanchard is a politician from the US state of Michigan. A Democrat, Blanchard has served in the United States House of Representatives, as the 45th Governor of Michigan, and as United States Ambassador to Canada....
, argued that both states should have their full delegate slates restored; David Bonior who was now on Obama's team pointed out that these primaries were not proper contests - Clinton was the only presidential nominee that campaigned and therefore won most of the popular vote in these states - and that the DNC compromise was a concession on their part.
While falling behind Obama in the popular vote and delegates won through primaries and caucuses, Clinton initially enjoyed a large lead in superdelegates and maintained that they believed that she was the stronger candidate in the general election. Nonetheless, Obama criticized Clinton's rationale saying that the superdelegates' decisive role could be seen as undemocratic if it went against the popular vote. During the last week of primaries, DNC
DNC
DNC may refer to:*Daigaku Nyūshi Center, a Japanese Independent Administrative Institution which administers the National Center Test for University Admissions...
Chairman Howard Dean
Howard Dean
Howard Brush Dean III is an American politician and physician from Vermont. He served six terms as the 79th Governor of Vermont and ran unsuccessfully for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination. He was chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 2005 to 2009. Although his U.S...
was also pressuring undecided superdelegates to commit to either remaining presidential candidate, in order to avert the potentially divisive contest carrying on in the summer. Clinton opposed Dean's initiative, because she planned to continue all the way to the convention where the undecided superdelegates would be her last chance to get the nomination, knowing that she could not overtake Obama's lead in the remaining primaries. With Obama taking North Carolina by double digits and almost winning the crucial blue-collar state of Indiana on Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday
In the United States, Super Tuesday, in general, refers to the Tuesday in February or March of a presidential election year when the greatest number of states hold primary elections to select delegates to national conventions at which each party's presidential candidates are officially nominated...
III, ensuring him the majority of delegates and popular vote from the primaries, more and more superdelegates began committing to him leading up to the June 3 contests. As a result, on June 3, Obama was declared the presumptive nominee that evening, with pledged delegates from Montana and South Dakota. Clinton conceded on June 7, urging her supporters to support Obama in the general election, and so no brokered convention resulted for the Democrats in 2008.
For the Republicans, a brokered convention was also forecast because of the number of strong candidates and their different geographic bases. The number of "winner take all" states benefits candidates with strong regional support. In addition, the weakened power of President Bush to force candidates out of the race results in fewer levels of influence for them. With John McCain
John McCain
John Sidney McCain III is the senior United States Senator from Arizona. He was the Republican nominee for president in the 2008 United States election....
winning the majority of delegates on Super Tuesday and the subsequent withdrawal of his strongest challenger, Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney
Willard Mitt Romney is an American businessman and politician. He was the 70th Governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007 and is a candidate for the 2012 Republican Party presidential nomination.The son of George W...
, the brokered convention was averted.
Brokered conventions today
Several factors encourage a clear and timely decision in the primary process.First, candidates tend to get momentum as they go through the process because of the bandwagon effect
Bandwagon effect
The bandwagon effect is a well documented form of groupthink in behavioral science and has many applications. The general rule is that conduct or beliefs spread among people, as fads and trends clearly do, with "the probability of any individual adopting it increasing with the proportion who have...
. Thus, one or two candidates will be portrayed by the media to voters as the front runner(s) as a result of their placement in the first primaries and caucuses, and as also-ran candidates drop out, their supporters will tend to vote for the leaders. Theorists have identified two types of political momentum, piecemeal and all-at-once, with different impacts on front-runners and those right behind them.
Secondly, political parties wish to avoid the negative publicity from a brokered convention as well as to maximize the amount of time the nominee has to campaign for the presidency itself (there are barely two months between the major parties' conventions and Election Day).
Lastly, the candidate nominated from the brokered convention will be seen as weak and must overcome additional hurdles in a short time for the general election.
Especially on account of the desire to foster party unity in the months leading up to Election Day
Election Day (politics)
Election Day refers to the day when general elections are held. In many countries, general elections are always held on a Sunday, to enable as many voters as possible to participate, while in other countries elections are always held on a weekday...
, it is considered possible if not probable that any "brokering" that may be required for a future presidential convention will actually take place in the weeks and months leading up to the convention, once it becomes clear that no candidate will likely secure a majority of delegates without an agreement with one or more rivals. Such an agreement would likely commit the front runner to make some form of concession(s) in return, such as selecting the former rival as his/her vice presidential nominee.
Brokered conventions in popular culture
The movie The Best ManThe Best Man (1964 film)
The Best Man is a 1964 film directed by Franklin J. Schaffner with a screenplay by Gore Vidal based on his play of the same title. Starring Henry Fonda, Cliff Robertson, and Lee Tracy, the film details the seamy political maneuverings behind the nomination of a presidential candidate...
depicts the brokered convention of an unnamed political party, with two candidates vying for the support of a previous President.
In the last two episodes of season six of The West Wing, the Democratic party fought through a brokered convention, with dark horse
Dark horse
Dark horse is a term used to describe a little-known person or thing that emerges to prominence, especially in a competition of some sort.-Origin:The term began as horse racing parlance...
candidate Matthew Santos (Jimmy Smits
Jimmy Smits
Jimmy Smits is an American actor. Smits is perhaps best known for his roles as attorney Victor Sifuentes on the 1980s legal drama L.A. Law, as NYPD Detective Bobby Simone on the 1990s police drama NYPD Blue, and as Congressman Matt Santos on The West Wing...
) eventually prevailing.
In the Hold Me in Paradise
Hold Me in Paradise
"Hold Me in Paradise" is the eighth episode of the first season of the HBO television series Boardwalk Empire, which premiered 7 November 2010. It was written by staff writer Meg Jackson and directed by Brian Kirk...
episode of Boardwalk Empire, "Nucky" Thompson is the de facto
De facto
De facto is a Latin expression that means "concerning fact." In law, it often means "in practice but not necessarily ordained by law" or "in practice or actuality, but not officially established." It is commonly used in contrast to de jure when referring to matters of law, governance, or...
leader of the New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey is a state in the Northeastern and Middle Atlantic regions of the United States. , its population was 8,791,894. It is bordered on the north and east by the state of New York, on the southeast and south by the Atlantic Ocean, on the west by Pennsylvania and on the southwest by Delaware...
Republican delegation during the 1920 Presidential Election
United States presidential election, 1920
The United States presidential election of 1920 was dominated by the aftermath of World War I and a hostile response to certain policies of Woodrow Wilson, the Democratic president. The wartime economic boom had collapsed. Politicians were arguing over peace treaties and the question of America's...
held in Chicago
Chicago
Chicago is the largest city in the US state of Illinois. With nearly 2.7 million residents, it is the most populous city in the Midwestern United States and the third most populous in the US, after New York City and Los Angeles...
. In the episode, Nucky commits his delegation to Warren G. Harding
Warren G. Harding
Warren Gamaliel Harding was the 29th President of the United States . A Republican from Ohio, Harding was an influential self-made newspaper publisher. He served in the Ohio Senate , as the 28th Lieutenant Governor of Ohio and as a U.S. Senator...
in exchange for an unfavorable outcome for an instate rival.