Thomas Schelling
Encyclopedia
Thomas Crombie Schelling (born 14 April 1921) is an American economist
and professor of foreign affairs
, national security
, nuclear strategy
, and arms control
at the School of Public Policy
at University of Maryland, College Park
. He is also co-faculty at the New England Complex Systems Institute
. He was awarded the 2005 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
(shared with Robert Aumann
) for "having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory
analysis."
. Schelling graduated from San Diego High. He received his bachelor's degree
in economics from the University of California, Berkeley
in 1944. He received his Ph.D.
in economics from Harvard University
in 1951.
in Europe
, the White House
, and the Executive Office of the President from 1948 to 1953. He wrote most of his dissertation on national income behavior working at night while in Europe. He left government to join the economics faculty at Yale University
, and in 1958 he was appointed Professor of Economics at Harvard. In 1969 he joined the Kennedy School
at Harvard University.
Schelling previously taught for twenty years at Harvard University
's John F. Kennedy School of Government
, where he was the Lucius N. Littauer Professor of Political Economy, as well as conducted research at IIASA
, in Laxenburg
, Austria
between 1994 and 1999.
In 1993 Schelling was awarded the NAS Award for Behavior Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War
from the National Academy of Sciences
. He also received an honorary Doctorate degree from Yale University
in 2009 as well as an honorary degree from the University of Manchester
.
in what Schelling refers to, in the book, as "conflict behavior".
The Strategy of Conflict is considered one of the hundred books that have been most influential in the West since 1945. In this book he introduced concepts like focal point and credible commitment
. Chapter headings include A Reorientation of Game Theory, Randomization of Promises and Threats and Surprise Attack: A Study of Mutual Distrust.
In an article celebrating Schelling's Nobel Prize
for Economics Michael Kinsley
, Washington Post Op Ed Columnist and former student of Schelling's, summarizes the professor's Reorientation of Game Theory as follows:
He further postulates in his 1978 book Micromotives and Macrobehaviors that a preference for segregation of two groups and a preference to congregate with others of your demographic are indistinguishable as motives which could explain the phenomenon of voluntary separation of two distinct groups.
debate since chairing a commission for President Carter in 1980. He believes climate change poses a serious threat to developing nations, but that the threat to the United States has been exaggerated. Drawing on his experience with the post-war Marshall Plan
, he has argued that addressing global warming is a bargaining problem: if the world is able to reduce emissions, poor countries will receive most of the benefits but rich countries will bear most of the costs.
Schelling was a contributing participant of the Copenhagen Consensus
.
Economist
An economist is a professional in the social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy...
and professor of foreign affairs
Foreign Affairs
Foreign Affairs is an American magazine and website on international relations and U.S. foreign policy published since 1922 by the Council on Foreign Relations six times annually...
, national security
National security
National security is the requirement to maintain the survival of the state through the use of economic, diplomacy, power projection and political power. The concept developed mostly in the United States of America after World War II...
, nuclear strategy
Nuclear strategy
Nuclear strategy involves the development of doctrines and strategies for the production and use of nuclear weapons.As a sub-branch of military strategy, nuclear strategy attempts to match nuclear weapons as means to political ends...
, and arms control
Arms control
Arms control is an umbrella term for restrictions upon the development, production, stockpiling, proliferation, and usage of weapons, especially weapons of mass destruction...
at the School of Public Policy
University of Maryland School of Public Policy
The Maryland School of Public Policy is one of 14 schools at the University of Maryland, College Park and the only policy school in the Washington, D.C.-area affiliated with a major research university....
at University of Maryland, College Park
University of Maryland, College Park
The University of Maryland, College Park is a top-ranked public research university located in the city of College Park in Prince George's County, Maryland, just outside Washington, D.C...
. He is also co-faculty at the New England Complex Systems Institute
New England Complex Systems Institute
The New England Complex Systems Institute is an American research institution dedicated to advancing the study of complex systems. It was founded in 1996 and is located in Cambridge, MA.- Overview :...
. He was awarded the 2005 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences
The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, commonly referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics, but officially the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel , is an award for outstanding contributions to the field of economics, generally regarded as one of the...
(shared with Robert Aumann
Robert Aumann
Robert John Aumann is an Israeli-American mathematician and a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences. He is a professor at the Center for the Study of Rationality in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel...
) for "having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory
Game theory
Game theory is a mathematical method for analyzing calculated circumstances, such as in games, where a person’s success is based upon the choices of others...
analysis."
Early years
Schelling was born to John M. Schelling and Zelda M. Ayres in Oakland, CaliforniaOakland, California
Oakland is a major West Coast port city on San Francisco Bay in the U.S. state of California. It is the eighth-largest city in the state with a 2010 population of 390,724...
. Schelling graduated from San Diego High. He received his bachelor's degree
Bachelor's degree
A bachelor's degree is usually an academic degree awarded for an undergraduate course or major that generally lasts for three or four years, but can range anywhere from two to six years depending on the region of the world...
in economics from the University of California, Berkeley
University of California, Berkeley
The University of California, Berkeley , is a teaching and research university established in 1868 and located in Berkeley, California, USA...
in 1944. He received his Ph.D.
Ph.D.
A Ph.D. is a Doctor of Philosophy, an academic degree.Ph.D. may also refer to:* Ph.D. , a 1980s British group*Piled Higher and Deeper, a web comic strip*PhD: Phantasy Degree, a Korean comic series* PhD Docbook renderer, an XML renderer...
in economics from Harvard University
Harvard University
Harvard University is a private Ivy League university located in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States, established in 1636 by the Massachusetts legislature. Harvard is the oldest institution of higher learning in the United States and the first corporation chartered in the country...
in 1951.
Career
He served with the Marshall PlanMarshall Plan
The Marshall Plan was the large-scale American program to aid Europe where the United States gave monetary support to help rebuild European economies after the end of World War II in order to combat the spread of Soviet communism. The plan was in operation for four years beginning in April 1948...
in Europe
Europe
Europe is, by convention, one of the world's seven continents. Comprising the westernmost peninsula of Eurasia, Europe is generally 'divided' from Asia to its east by the watershed divides of the Ural and Caucasus Mountains, the Ural River, the Caspian and Black Seas, and the waterways connecting...
, the White House
White House
The White House is the official residence and principal workplace of the president of the United States. Located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW in Washington, D.C., the house was designed by Irish-born James Hoban, and built between 1792 and 1800 of white-painted Aquia sandstone in the Neoclassical...
, and the Executive Office of the President from 1948 to 1953. He wrote most of his dissertation on national income behavior working at night while in Europe. He left government to join the economics faculty at Yale University
Yale University
Yale University is a private, Ivy League university located in New Haven, Connecticut, United States. Founded in 1701 in the Colony of Connecticut, the university is the third-oldest institution of higher education in the United States...
, and in 1958 he was appointed Professor of Economics at Harvard. In 1969 he joined the Kennedy School
Kennedy School
The Kennedy School is a former elementary school that has been converted to a hotel, movie theater and dining establishment in northeast Portland, Oregon. The facility is operated by the McMenamins chain.-External links:*...
at Harvard University.
Schelling previously taught for twenty years at Harvard University
Harvard University
Harvard University is a private Ivy League university located in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States, established in 1636 by the Massachusetts legislature. Harvard is the oldest institution of higher learning in the United States and the first corporation chartered in the country...
's John F. Kennedy School of Government
John F. Kennedy School of Government
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University is a public policy and public administration school, and one of Harvard's graduate and professional schools...
, where he was the Lucius N. Littauer Professor of Political Economy, as well as conducted research at IIASA
IIASA
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is an international research organization located in Laxenburg, near Vienna, in Austria. IIASA conducts interdisciplinary scientific studies on environmental, economic, technological and social issues in the context of human dimensions of...
, in Laxenburg
Laxenburg
Laxenburg is a town in the district of Mödling in the Austrian state of Lower Austria, near Vienna.- History :The place is well-known for its castle, Schloss Laxenburg, which, beside Schönbrunn, was the most important summer seat of the Habsburg dynasty....
, Austria
Austria
Austria , officially the Republic of Austria , is a landlocked country of roughly 8.4 million people in Central Europe. It is bordered by the Czech Republic and Germany to the north, Slovakia and Hungary to the east, Slovenia and Italy to the south, and Switzerland and Liechtenstein to the...
between 1994 and 1999.
In 1993 Schelling was awarded the NAS Award for Behavior Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War
NAS Award for Behavior Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War
The NAS Award for Behavioral Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War is awarded by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences "to recognize basic research in any field of cognitive or behavioral science that has employed rigorous formal or empirical methods, optimally a combination of these,...
from the National Academy of Sciences
United States National Academy of Sciences
The National Academy of Sciences is a corporation in the United States whose members serve pro bono as "advisers to the nation on science, engineering, and medicine." As a national academy, new members of the organization are elected annually by current members, based on their distinguished and...
. He also received an honorary Doctorate degree from Yale University
Yale University
Yale University is a private, Ivy League university located in New Haven, Connecticut, United States. Founded in 1701 in the Colony of Connecticut, the university is the third-oldest institution of higher education in the United States...
in 2009 as well as an honorary degree from the University of Manchester
University of Manchester
The University of Manchester is a public research university located in Manchester, United Kingdom. It is a "red brick" university and a member of the Russell Group of research-intensive British universities and the N8 Group...
.
Personal life
Schelling was married to Corinne Tigay Saposs from 1947 to 1991, with whom he had four sons. His marriage to second wife, Alice M. Coleman occurred later that year.The Strategy of Conflict
Schelling's book, The Strategy of Conflict (1960), has pioneered the study of bargaining and strategic behaviorStrategic management
Strategic management is a field that deals with the major intended and emergent initiatives taken by general managers on behalf of owners, involving utilization of resources, to enhance the performance of firms in their external environments...
in what Schelling refers to, in the book, as "conflict behavior".
The Strategy of Conflict is considered one of the hundred books that have been most influential in the West since 1945. In this book he introduced concepts like focal point and credible commitment
Risk dominance
Risk dominance and payoff dominance are two related refinements of the Nash equilibrium solution concept in game theory, defined by John Harsanyi and Reinhard Selten. A Nash equilibrium is considered payoff dominant if it is Pareto superior to all other Nash equilibria in the game...
. Chapter headings include A Reorientation of Game Theory, Randomization of Promises and Threats and Surprise Attack: A Study of Mutual Distrust.
In an article celebrating Schelling's Nobel Prize
Nobel Prize
The Nobel Prizes are annual international awards bestowed by Scandinavian committees in recognition of cultural and scientific advances. The will of the Swedish chemist Alfred Nobel, the inventor of dynamite, established the prizes in 1895...
for Economics Michael Kinsley
Michael Kinsley
Michael Kinsley is an American political journalist, commentator, television host, and pundit. Primarily active in print media as both a writer and editor, he also became known to television audiences as a co-host on Crossfire...
, Washington Post Op Ed Columnist and former student of Schelling's, summarizes the professor's Reorientation of Game Theory as follows:
"[Y]ou're standing at the edge of a cliff, chained by the ankle to someone else. You'll be released, and one of you will get a large prize, as soon as the other gives in. How do you persuade the other guy to give in, when the only method at your disposal -- threatening to push him off the cliff -- would doom you both?"
"Answer: You start dancing, closer and closer to the edge. That way, you don't have to convince him that you would do something totally irrational: plunge him and yourself off the cliff. You just have to convince him that you are prepared to take a higher risk than he is of accidentally falling off the cliff. If you can do that, you win."
Arms and Influence
Schelling's theories about war were extended in Arms and Influence (1966). The blurb states that it "carries forward the analysis so brilliantly begun in his earlier The Strategy of Conflict (1960) and Strategy and Arms Control (with Morton Halperin, 1961), and makes a significant contribution to the growing literature on modern war and diplomacy". Chapter headings include The Diplomacy of Violence, The Diplomacy of Ultimate Survival and The Dynamics of Mutual Alarm.Models of Segregation
In 1969, he published a widely cited article dealing with racial dynamics called "Models of Segregation". In this paper he showed that a small preference for one's neighbors to be of the same color could lead to total segregation. He used coins on graph paper to demonstrate his theory by placing pennies and nickels in different patterns on the "board" and then moving them one by one if they were in an "unhappy" situation. The positive feedback cycle of segregation's causing increased prejudice, and prejudice's increasing preference for separated living, can be found in most human populations. Variations are found in what are regarded as meaningful differences gender, age, race, ethnicity, language, sexual preference, religion, etc. Once a cycle of separation-prejudice-discrimination-separation has begun, it has a self-sustaining momentum.He further postulates in his 1978 book Micromotives and Macrobehaviors that a preference for segregation of two groups and a preference to congregate with others of your demographic are indistinguishable as motives which could explain the phenomenon of voluntary separation of two distinct groups.
Global warming
Schelling has been involved in the global warmingGlobal warming
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...
debate since chairing a commission for President Carter in 1980. He believes climate change poses a serious threat to developing nations, but that the threat to the United States has been exaggerated. Drawing on his experience with the post-war Marshall Plan
Marshall Plan
The Marshall Plan was the large-scale American program to aid Europe where the United States gave monetary support to help rebuild European economies after the end of World War II in order to combat the spread of Soviet communism. The plan was in operation for four years beginning in April 1948...
, he has argued that addressing global warming is a bargaining problem: if the world is able to reduce emissions, poor countries will receive most of the benefits but rich countries will bear most of the costs.
Schelling was a contributing participant of the Copenhagen Consensus
Copenhagen Consensus
Copenhagen Consensus is a project that seeks to establish priorities for advancing global welfare using methodologies based on the theory of welfare economics. It was conceived and organized by Bjørn Lomborg, the author of The Skeptical Environmentalist and the then director of the Danish...
.
See also
- The Art of WarThe Art of WarThe Art of War is an ancient Chinese military treatise that is attributed to Sun Tzu , a high ranking military general and strategist during the late Spring and Autumn period...
- Niccolò MachiavelliNiccolò MachiavelliNiccolò di Bernardo dei Machiavelli was an Italian historian, philosopher, humanist, and writer based in Florence during the Renaissance. He is one of the main founders of modern political science. He was a diplomat, political philosopher, playwright, and a civil servant of the Florentine Republic...
- Carl von ClausewitzCarl von ClausewitzCarl Philipp Gottfried von Clausewitz was a Prussian soldier and German military theorist who stressed the moral and political aspects of war...
- Game TheoryGame theoryGame theory is a mathematical method for analyzing calculated circumstances, such as in games, where a person’s success is based upon the choices of others...
- Schelling point
- PrecommitmentPrecommitmentPrecommitment is a strategy first discussed by Thomas Schelling that a party to a conflict can strengthen its position by cutting off some of its options to make its threats more credible...
- InternalityInternalityAn internality is a term, introduced in 1993 and used in behavioral economics to describe those types of behaviors that impose costs on a person in the long-run that are not taken into account when making decisions in the present...
- EgonomicsEgonomicsEgonomics is a term used to describe self-management. It was first proposed by Thomas Schelling in his paper Egonomics, or the Art of Self-Management. Schelling suggested that individuals suffer from a sort of split-personality disorder whereby the present self wants a specific thing but the...
- Vicarious problem solvingVicarious problem solvingVicarious problem-solving is a rational actor approach developed by Thomas Schelling. In economic reasoning it is an educated common sense where one informally models the situation assuming agents ‘operate in a purposeful manner, aware of their values and alert to their opportunities’...