Shrinking cities
Encyclopedia
Shrinking cities are cities that are experiencing acute population loss. Deindustrialisation and out-migration are some of the common reasons that cities shrink. In the United States, this problem is most commonly associated with the Rust Belt
, while parts of Eastern Europe also experience similar problems. Since the infrastructure of such cities was built to support a larger population, its maintenance can become a serious concern. A related phenomenon is counter urbanization.
In the last 50 years, about 370 cities with more than 100,000 residents have undergone population losses of more than 10%. More than 25 percent of the depopulating cities are in the United States, and most of those are in the midwest.
Overcapacity in infrastructure can severely strain the fiscal situation of any cities, most particular those who are already in dire straits. The problem is relatively straightforward; a declining city with aging infrastructure has fewer people to share the cost resulting in a higher per capita cost to the residents who remain. Since infrastructure costs are usually fixed, reductions in demand do not reduce costs.
The dispersed and sparsely populated neighborhoods that inevitably characterize shrinking cities are a major source of fiscal distress. Services must still be provided to fewer and fewer citizens over a larger geographic distance, once again raising the per capita cost. This is an instance illustrating how a lack of population density can be a strain on already stretched municipal budgets. “At the neighbourhood level, residential density is directly linked to expenditures on neighbourhood infrastructure. The higher the density, the lower the per capita length of collector roads, water distribution lines or sewer collection lines. Below a density of 40 dwellings per hectare net urban land network-related per capita costs increase exponentially”.
Some policymakers have suggested that such neighborhoods might be consolidated at a higher density to increase their ability to pay for the required municipal services. Cities such as Flint, MI have explored this option, yet it is currently largely in a preliminary stage. Since such a policy has yet to be formally implemented in the United States , the preliminary evidence regarding is efficacy is mixed at best. Decommissioning public infrastructure is an elaborate, expensive process that requires a great deal of study. Currently, many infrastructure management professionals believe it more sensible to incur current maintenance cost at some minimal level rather than removing infrastructure that may later need to be reinstated. Since future growth can be hard to predict, this is a pragmatic argument that can only be countered with detailed research.
However, such detailed research regarding infrastructure management in shrinking cities is not widespread at this point. Kent State University’s Sustainable Infrastructure in Shrinking Cities report consistently affirms this point. Simply put, far more research is needed before we can confidently recommend policy. As the report concludes:
Urban renewal
is a broad set of attempts intended to renovate core urban areas to make them more attractive to businesses and residents. The methods and results have been mixed, with a wide spectrum of results from negative to positive.
An urban growth boundary
is a legal mechanism for limiting sprawl, which necessarily increases density within the boundary. Its intent is to prevent the problem of urban shrinkage before it happens. The boundary generally encompasses the city and its surrounding suburbs, requiring the entire area to work together to prevent unlimited sprawl and consequent urban shrinkage. This method is being used successfully in manys (such as Portland, Oregon) to maximize returns on infrastructure investments.
Rust Belt
The Rust Belt is a term that gained currency in the 1980s as the informal description of an area straddling the Midwestern and Northeastern United States, in which local economies traditionally garnered an increased manufacturing sector to add jobs and corporate profits...
, while parts of Eastern Europe also experience similar problems. Since the infrastructure of such cities was built to support a larger population, its maintenance can become a serious concern. A related phenomenon is counter urbanization.
Global context
The current population of the world is 6.5 billion people. Currently about 3 billion live in cities. By 2030, population in cities is expected to be 4.1 billion. Though some cities are continuing to attract residents, others are losing residents at varying rates. Saskia Sassen's "global cities" theory forecasts these urban "winners" and "losers": the winners being those cities with agglomerated financial and specialized services and the losers being those with outdated industrial infrastructure and manufacture economies.In the last 50 years, about 370 cities with more than 100,000 residents have undergone population losses of more than 10%. More than 25 percent of the depopulating cities are in the United States, and most of those are in the midwest.
Problems with Infrastructure Management
Among many challenges facing shrinking cities, infrastructure management is among the most intractable. Shrinking cities were once more dense, industrious places requiring vast infrastructure to support the resulting population and economic activity. However, they now face a vastly reduced population. The remaining legacy infrastructure was intended for a larger population.Overcapacity in infrastructure can severely strain the fiscal situation of any cities, most particular those who are already in dire straits. The problem is relatively straightforward; a declining city with aging infrastructure has fewer people to share the cost resulting in a higher per capita cost to the residents who remain. Since infrastructure costs are usually fixed, reductions in demand do not reduce costs.
The dispersed and sparsely populated neighborhoods that inevitably characterize shrinking cities are a major source of fiscal distress. Services must still be provided to fewer and fewer citizens over a larger geographic distance, once again raising the per capita cost. This is an instance illustrating how a lack of population density can be a strain on already stretched municipal budgets. “At the neighbourhood level, residential density is directly linked to expenditures on neighbourhood infrastructure. The higher the density, the lower the per capita length of collector roads, water distribution lines or sewer collection lines. Below a density of 40 dwellings per hectare net urban land network-related per capita costs increase exponentially”.
Some policymakers have suggested that such neighborhoods might be consolidated at a higher density to increase their ability to pay for the required municipal services. Cities such as Flint, MI have explored this option, yet it is currently largely in a preliminary stage. Since such a policy has yet to be formally implemented in the United States , the preliminary evidence regarding is efficacy is mixed at best. Decommissioning public infrastructure is an elaborate, expensive process that requires a great deal of study. Currently, many infrastructure management professionals believe it more sensible to incur current maintenance cost at some minimal level rather than removing infrastructure that may later need to be reinstated. Since future growth can be hard to predict, this is a pragmatic argument that can only be countered with detailed research.
However, such detailed research regarding infrastructure management in shrinking cities is not widespread at this point. Kent State University’s Sustainable Infrastructure in Shrinking Cities report consistently affirms this point. Simply put, far more research is needed before we can confidently recommend policy. As the report concludes:
“When we began this research, we hoped to find a technology or strategy that would enable substantial cost savings by decommissioning large components of costly infrastructure that were no longer necessary due to declining population. We found no such thing.”
Remediation
Several approaches are being employed in various cities to attempt to address the problem, using a combination of financial incentives and regulatory controls.Urban renewal
Urban renewal
Urban renewal is a program of land redevelopment in areas of moderate to high density urban land use. Renewal has had both successes and failures. Its modern incarnation began in the late 19th century in developed nations and experienced an intense phase in the late 1940s – under the rubric of...
is a broad set of attempts intended to renovate core urban areas to make them more attractive to businesses and residents. The methods and results have been mixed, with a wide spectrum of results from negative to positive.
An urban growth boundary
Urban growth boundary
An urban growth boundary, or UGB, is a regional boundary, set in an attempt to control urban sprawl by mandating that the area inside the boundary be used for higher density urban development and the area outside be used for lower density development.An urban growth boundary circumscribes an...
is a legal mechanism for limiting sprawl, which necessarily increases density within the boundary. Its intent is to prevent the problem of urban shrinkage before it happens. The boundary generally encompasses the city and its surrounding suburbs, requiring the entire area to work together to prevent unlimited sprawl and consequent urban shrinkage. This method is being used successfully in manys (such as Portland, Oregon) to maximize returns on infrastructure investments.
List of shrinking cities with growing suburbs
The following cities have lost at least 20 percent of their population, from a peak of over 100,000, since 1950.United States
| City | 1950 population | Peak population (year) | 2010 population | Percent decline from peak population | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron, Ohio Akron, Ohio Akron , is the fifth largest city in the U.S. state of Ohio and the county seat of Summit County. It is located in the Great Lakes region approximately south of Lake Erie along the Little Cuyahoga River. As of the 2010 census, the city had a population of 199,110. The Akron Metropolitan... |
264,605 | 290,351 (1960) | 199,110 | ||
| Albany, New York Albany, New York Albany is the capital city of the U.S. state of New York, the seat of Albany County, and the central city of New York's Capital District. Roughly north of New York City, Albany sits on the west bank of the Hudson River, about south of its confluence with the Mohawk River... |
134,995 | 134,995 (1950) | 97,856 | 2.3% increase from 2000. | |
| Baltimore, Maryland | 949,708 | 949,708 (1950) | 620,961 | ||
| Birmingham, Alabama Birmingham, Alabama Birmingham is the largest city in Alabama. The city is the county seat of Jefferson County. According to the 2010 United States Census, Birmingham had a population of 212,237. The Birmingham-Hoover Metropolitan Area, in estimate by the U.S... |
340,887 | 340,887 (1950) | 212,237 | ||
| Boston, Massachusetts | 801,444 | 801,444 (1950) | 617,594 | 4.8% increase from 2000. | |
| Buffalo, New York Buffalo, New York Buffalo is the second most populous city in the state of New York, after New York City. Located in Western New York on the eastern shores of Lake Erie and at the head of the Niagara River across from Fort Erie, Ontario, Buffalo is the seat of Erie County and the principal city of the... |
580,132 | 580,132 (1950) | 270,240 | ||
| Camden, New Jersey Camden, New Jersey The city of Camden is the county seat of Camden County, New Jersey. It is located across the Delaware River from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. As of the 2010 United States Census, the city had a total population of 77,344... |
124,555 | 124,555 (1950) | 77,344 | ||
| Chicago, Illinois | 3,620,962 | 3,620,962 (1950) | 2,695,598 | ||
| Cincinnati, Ohio Cincinnati, Ohio Cincinnati is a city in the U.S. state of Ohio. Cincinnati is the county seat of Hamilton County. Settled in 1788, the city is located to north of the Ohio River at the Ohio-Kentucky border, near Indiana. The population within city limits is 296,943 according to the 2010 census, making it Ohio's... |
503,998 | 503,998 (1950) | 296,943 | ||
| Cleveland, Ohio Cleveland, Ohio Cleveland is a city in the U.S. state of Ohio and is the county seat of Cuyahoga County, the most populous county in the state. The city is located in northeastern Ohio on the southern shore of Lake Erie, approximately west of the Pennsylvania border... |
914,808 | 914,808 (1950) | 396,815 | ||
| Dayton, Ohio Dayton, Ohio Dayton is the 6th largest city in the U.S. state of Ohio and the county seat of Montgomery County, the fifth most populous county in the state. The population was 141,527 at the 2010 census. The Dayton Metropolitan Statistical Area had a population of 841,502 in the 2010 census... |
243,872 | 262,332 (1960) | 141,527 | ||
| Detroit, Michigan Detroit, Michigan Detroit is the major city among the primary cultural, financial, and transportation centers in the Metro Detroit area, a region of 5.2 million people. As the seat of Wayne County, the city of Detroit is the largest city in the U.S. state of Michigan and serves as a major port on the Detroit River... |
1,849,568 | 1,849,568 (1950) | 713,777 | ||
| Flint, Michigan Flint, Michigan Flint is a city in the U.S. state of Michigan and is located along the Flint River, northwest of Detroit. The U.S. Census Bureau reports the 2010 population to be placed at 102,434, making Flint the seventh largest city in Michigan. It is the county seat of Genesee County which lies in the... |
163,413 | 196,940 (1960) | 111,475 | ||
| Gary, Indiana Gary, Indiana Gary is a city in Lake County, Indiana, United States. The city is in the southeastern portion of the Chicago metropolitan area and is 25 miles from downtown Chicago. The population is 80,294 at the 2010 census, making it the seventh-largest city in the state. It borders Lake Michigan and is known... |
133,911 | 178,320 (1960) | 80,294 | ||
| Hammond, Indiana Hammond, Indiana Hammond is a city in Lake County, Indiana, United States. It is part of the Chicago metropolitan area. The population was 80,830 at the 2010 census.-Geography:Hammond is located at .... |
87,595 | 111,698 (1960) | 80,830 | ||
| Hartford, Connecticut Hartford, Connecticut Hartford is the capital of the U.S. state of Connecticut. The seat of Hartford County until Connecticut disbanded county government in 1960, it is the second most populous city on New England's largest river, the Connecticut River. As of the 2010 Census, Hartford's population was 124,775, making... |
177,397 | 177,397 (1950) | 124,060 | 2.0% increase from 2000. | |
| Jersey City, New Jersey Jersey City, New Jersey Jersey City is the seat of Hudson County, New Jersey, United States.Part of the New York metropolitan area, Jersey City lies between the Hudson River and Upper New York Bay across from Lower Manhattan and the Hackensack River and Newark Bay... |
299,017 | 316,715 (1930) | 247,597 | 3.1% increase from 2000. | |
| Minneapolis, Minnesota Minneapolis, Minnesota Minneapolis , nicknamed "City of Lakes" and the "Mill City," is the county seat of Hennepin County, the largest city in the U.S. state of Minnesota, and the 48th largest in the United States... |
521,718 | 521,718 (1950) | 382,578 | ||
| Newark, New Jersey Newark, New Jersey Newark is the largest city in the American state of New Jersey, and the seat of Essex County. As of the 2010 United States Census, Newark had a population of 277,140, maintaining its status as the largest municipality in New Jersey. It is the 68th largest city in the U.S... |
438,776 | 442,337 (1930) | 277,140 | 1.3% increase from 2000. | |
| New Haven, Connecticut New Haven, Connecticut New Haven is the second-largest city in Connecticut and the sixth-largest in New England. According to the 2010 Census, New Haven's population increased by 5.0% between 2000 and 2010, a rate higher than that of the State of Connecticut, and higher than that of the state's five largest cities, and... |
164,443 | 164,443 (1950) | 129,779 | 5.0% increase from 2000. | |
| New Orleans, Louisiana New Orleans, Louisiana New Orleans is a major United States port and the largest city and metropolitan area in the state of Louisiana. The New Orleans metropolitan area has a population of 1,235,650 as of 2009, the 46th largest in the USA. The New Orleans – Metairie – Bogalusa combined statistical area has a population... |
570,445 | 627,525 (1960) | 343,829 | 2.1% increase from 2008 Census Bureau estimate; first after Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Katrina of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was a powerful Atlantic hurricane. It is the costliest natural disaster, as well as one of the five deadliest hurricanes, in the history of the United States. Among recorded Atlantic hurricanes, it was the sixth strongest overall... . |
|
| Niagara Falls, New York Niagara Falls, New York Niagara Falls is a city in Niagara County, New York, United States. As of the 2010 census, the city had a total population of 50,193, down from the 55,593 recorded in the 2000 census. It is across the Niagara River from Niagara Falls, Ontario , both named after the famed Niagara Falls which they... |
90,872 | 102,394 (1960) | 50,194 | ||
| Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Philadelphia is the largest city in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the county seat of Philadelphia County, with which it is coterminous. The city is located in the Northeastern United States along the Delaware and Schuylkill rivers. It is the fifth-most-populous city in the United States,... |
2,071,605 | 2,071,605 (1950) | 1,526,006 | 0.6% increase from 2000. | |
| Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Pittsburgh is the second-largest city in the US Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the county seat of Allegheny County. Regionally, it anchors the largest urban area of Appalachia and the Ohio River Valley, and nationally, it is the 22nd-largest urban area in the United States... |
676,806 | 676,806 (1950) | 305,704 | ||
| Providence, Rhode Island Providence, Rhode Island Providence is the capital and most populous city of Rhode Island and was one of the first cities established in the United States. Located in Providence County, it is the third largest city in the New England region... |
248,674 | 252,981 (1930) | 178,042 | 2.5% increase from 2000. | |
| Reading, Pennsylvania Reading, Pennsylvania Reading is a city in southeastern Pennsylvania, USA, and seat of Berks County. Reading is the principal city of the Greater Reading Area and had a population of 88,082 as of the 2010 census, making it the fifth most populated city in the state after Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Allentown and Erie,... |
109,320 | 111,171 (1930) | 88,082 | 8.5% increase from 2000. | |
| Rochester, New York Rochester, New York Rochester is a city in Monroe County, New York, south of Lake Ontario in the United States. Known as The World's Image Centre, it was also once known as The Flour City, and more recently as The Flower City... |
332,488 | 332,488 (1950) | 210,565 | ||
| Scranton, Pennsylvania Scranton, Pennsylvania Scranton is a city in the northeastern part of Pennsylvania, United States. It is the county seat of Lackawanna County and the largest principal city in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre metropolitan area. Scranton had a population of 76,089 in 2010, according to the U.S... |
125,536 | 143,333 (1930) | 76,089 | ||
| South Bend, Indiana South Bend, Indiana The city of South Bend is the county seat of St. Joseph County, Indiana, United States, on the St. Joseph River near its southernmost bend, from which it derives its name. As of the 2010 Census, the city had a total of 101,168 residents; its Metropolitan Statistical Area had a population of 316,663... |
115,911 | 132,445 (1960) | 101,168 | ||
| St. Louis, Missouri St. Louis, Missouri St. Louis is an independent city on the eastern border of Missouri, United States. With a population of 319,294, it was the 58th-largest U.S. city at the 2010 U.S. Census. The Greater St... |
856,796 | 856,796 (1950) | 319,294 | ||
| Syracuse, New York Syracuse, New York Syracuse is a city in and the county seat of Onondaga County, New York, United States, the largest U.S. city with the name "Syracuse", and the fifth most populous city in the state. At the 2010 census, the city population was 145,170, and its metropolitan area had a population of 742,603... |
220,583 | 220,583 (1950) | 145,170 | ||
| Toledo, Ohio Toledo, Ohio Toledo is the fourth most populous city in the U.S. state of Ohio and is the county seat of Lucas County. Toledo is in northwest Ohio, on the western end of Lake Erie, and borders the State of Michigan... |
303,616 | 383,818 (1970) | 287,208 | ||
| Trenton, New Jersey Trenton, New Jersey Trenton is the capital of the U.S. state of New Jersey and the county seat of Mercer County. As of the 2010 United States Census, Trenton had a population of 84,913... |
128,009 | 128,009 (1950) | 84,913 | ||
| Utica, New York Utica, New York Utica is a city in and the county seat of Oneida County, New York, United States. The population was 62,235 at the 2010 census, an increase of 2.6% from the 2000 census.... |
100,489 | 100,518 (1940) | 62,235 | 2.6% increase from 2000. | |
| Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C., formally the District of Columbia and commonly referred to as Washington, "the District", or simply D.C., is the capital of the United States. On July 16, 1790, the United States Congress approved the creation of a permanent national capital as permitted by the U.S. Constitution.... |
802,718 | 802,718 (1950) | 601,723 | 5.2% increase from 2000. | |
| Youngstown, Ohio Youngstown, Ohio Youngstown is a city in the U.S. state of Ohio and the county seat of Mahoning County; it also extends into Trumbull County. The municipality is situated on the Mahoning River, approximately southeast of Cleveland and northwest of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania... |
168,330 | 170,002 (1930) | 66,982 |
See also
- GentrificationGentrificationGentrification and urban gentrification refer to the changes that result when wealthier people acquire or rent property in low income and working class communities. Urban gentrification is associated with movement. Consequent to gentrification, the average income increases and average family size...
- Rust beltRust BeltThe Rust Belt is a term that gained currency in the 1980s as the informal description of an area straddling the Midwestern and Northeastern United States, in which local economies traditionally garnered an increased manufacturing sector to add jobs and corporate profits...
- Urban renewalUrban renewalUrban renewal is a program of land redevelopment in areas of moderate to high density urban land use. Renewal has had both successes and failures. Its modern incarnation began in the late 19th century in developed nations and experienced an intense phase in the late 1940s – under the rubric of...
General references
- Hollander, Justin B. (forthcoming, 2011). Sunburnt Cities: The Great Recession, Depopulation, and Urban Planning in the American Sunbelt. London/New York: Routledge.
External links
- Shrinking Cities international Research Network
- Shrinking Cities Exhibition
- Shrinking Cities in USA
- Interview with German expert Wolfgang Kil on Shrinking Cities in Germany
- Professor Hollander's research on shrinking cities
- Small, Green, and Good: The Role of Neglected Cities in a Sustainable Future, a Boston ReviewBoston ReviewBoston Review is a bimonthly American political and literary magazine. The magazine covers, specifically, political debates, literature, and poetry...
article which argues that shrinking cities can be revived in a future concerned with environmentalism, in particular by using urban agricultureUrban agricultureUrban agriculture is the practice of cultivating, processing and distributing food in, or around, a village, town or city. Urban agriculture in addition can also involve animal husbandry, aquaculture, agro-forestry and horticulture...
to provide local food sources - Shrinking Cities Institute