Predicted outcome value theory
Encyclopedia
Predicted outcome value theory introduced in 1986 by Michael Sunnafrank, posits that people seek information in initial interactions and relationships to determine the benefits of interpersonal relationships by predicting the value
of future outcomes whether negative
or positive
. If a person predicts a positive outcome in the relationship this can lead to increased attraction
, however if a person predicts a negative outcome then he or she would pursue limited interaction or possibly relationship termination
. The processes of predicted outcome value directly link to continued relationship development and communication
as well as stronger attraction and intimacy within the relationship.
Predicted outcome value theory proposes that initial interaction behaviors serve two related functions in individuals' attempts to maximize future relational outcomes. First, communication is directed at reducing uncertainty (Berger & Calabrese, 1975) about new acquaintances to determine likely outcome-values for the relational future. Second, communication proceeds in a manner predicted to result in the most positive outcomes. In a broad sense, these outcome value predictions would lead to communicative attempts to terminate or curtail the conversation, to continue the entry-level conversation, or to escalate the conversation
and relationship beyond this level. Attempts to continue or escalate would result from positive predicted outcome values, while attempts to terminate or curtail would result from negative predictions. Given this, predicted outcome value theory proposes that several specific behaviors associated with conversational termination-escalation should be related to predicted outcome value levels.
Among these, Sunnafrank (1986) posits that predicted outcome value is positively related to amount of verbal communication, intimacy level of communication content, nonverbal affiliative expressiveness, and liking.
2. Prediction of positive future outcomes leads to future interactions
3. Prediction of negative future outcomes ends future interactions
4. People focus and discuss topics in conversations that facilitate positive predicted outcomes
, which Charles R. Berger
and Richard J. Calabrese introduced in 1975. Uncertainty reduction theory states that the driving force in initial interactions is to collect information to predict attitudes and behaviors for future relationship development.
Sunnafrank challenges uncertainty
reduction theory with his predicted outcome value theory in that initial interactions are not solely about reducing uncertainty within the relationship but motivated by the predicted outcome value. Sunnafrank ascertains that initial interactions only lead to continued relationship development after the person has determined future rewards and costs of that relationship.
, University of California Davis, Arizona State University
and Texas A&M University
. He was awarded his PhD and Masters degrees by Michigan State University.
Sunnafrank continues to work on research testing predicted outcome value theory.
The findings extended Sunnafrank (1983, 1984, 1985) and Sunnafrank and Miller's (1981) claim that attitude similarity and attraction are unassociated in beginning communicative relationships. While their research supports this claim for attitude similarity revealed in pre-acquaintance, it also shows that this claim generalizes to more normally occurring perceptions of attitude similarity produced during initial relational stages. The results strongly suggested that traditional beliefs about, and theoretical interpretations of, the attitude similarity/attraction association are incorrect, at least regarding the initial acquaintance period.
Another study, "Predicted Outcome Value in Initial Conversations", provided the initial test of several predicted outcome value theory (Sunnafrank, 1986) propositions. Findings supported all hypotheses tested, and demonstrated that during initial conversations predicted outcome value is strongly and positively related to the amount of verbal communication, intimacy of communication content, nonverbal affiliation, liking and perceived similarity.
More recent research was designed to investigate positive and negative predictors of possible relationships by focusing on decisions to engage in future dates. Interpersonal attraction
, homophily
, and nonverbal immediacy have been linked to the predicted outcome value of relationships during initial encounters. This study investigates how these variables influence date decisions in a six minute speed-dating experience. Results indicated interpersonal attraction
and nonverbal immediacy significantly predict predicted outcome value, but not future date decisions.
, conducted research which was published in the Journal of Social and Personal Relationships in 2004 and also featured on ABC news
. Sunnafrank and Ramirez studied 164 college freshmen over a nine-week period to determine the predicted outcome value of relationship development between strangers.
The study involved pairing two students of the same sex
together the first day of class and introducing one another and then engaging in conversation
for either three, six, or 10 minutes. Afterwards, researchers asked each student to predict the outcome of the relationship
by describing it as a nodding acquaintance, casual acquaintance, acquaintance, close acquaintance, friend, and close friend. The students also completed extensive questionnaires about the other person to determine how much they liked one another (Sunnafrank & Ramirez, 2004).
Over the nine-week period, Sunnafrank and Ramirez (2004) facilitated a classroom environment that allowed the students to continue to get to know one another. At the end of the nine weeks, those students who predicted positive outcomes developed strong relationships and their behavior
indicated such as those students sat together in class and communicated on a regular basis. The strongest effect of the study existed in the relationships where there was a predicted negative outcome. If students decided after the initial interaction
that they did not want the relationship to progress then the students acted accordingly by restricting conversation, avoiding eye contact
, and avoiding each other period.
Ramirez points out that there is power in first impressions. “People want to quickly determine if a person they just met is someone they are going to want to hang out with, or date, or spend more time with in the future. We don’t want to waste our time.”
One important point to consider about this study is that Sunnafrank says that college freshmen can be “aggressive” in pursuing new friendships and relationships within social circles and that behavior tends to change over time. “In most situations in life, our time is pretty much claimed by work and family matters, so even when you meet people you really like, chances are not much is going to happen. As life goes on and social networks become solidified, acting on that first impression becomes less likely.”
Sunnafrank concluded that other events throughout the course of relationships can change the predicted outcome value, which he calls “surprising events,” such as betraying one another’s trust by “back stabbing” and that not all relationships turn out as originally predicted. However, in this study, it is apparent that initial impressions and interactions can determine the outcome of the relationship, which is the predicted outcome value theory. While the college freshmen had numerous opportunities to develop their relationships over the nine-week period, the first impressions made lasting impacts.
Value (economics)
An economic value is the worth of a good or service as determined by the market.The economic value of a good or service has puzzled economists since the beginning of the discipline. First, economists tried to estimate the value of a good to an individual alone, and extend that definition to goods...
of future outcomes whether negative
Negative
- Science and mathematics :* Negative number* Negative mass* Negative energy * Electrical polarity* Negative result * Negative lenses, uses to describe diverging optics, see lens - Photography :...
or positive
Positive
Positive is a property of positivity and may refer to:- Mathematics and science :* Converging lens or positive lens, in optics* Plus sign, the sign "+" used to indicate a positive number* Positive , a polarity of electrical charge...
. If a person predicts a positive outcome in the relationship this can lead to increased attraction
Attraction
In general, an attraction draws one object towards another one. The term may have the following specific meanings.* In physics, attraction may refer to gravity or to the electromagnetic force* Attractiveness...
, however if a person predicts a negative outcome then he or she would pursue limited interaction or possibly relationship termination
Termination
Termination may refer to:In science:*Termination codon, in molecular biology*Termination factor, in genetics, part of the process of transcribing RNA...
. The processes of predicted outcome value directly link to continued relationship development and communication
Communication
Communication is the activity of conveying meaningful information. Communication requires a sender, a message, and an intended recipient, although the receiver need not be present or aware of the sender's intent to communicate at the time of communication; thus communication can occur across vast...
as well as stronger attraction and intimacy within the relationship.
Predicted outcome value theory proposes that initial interaction behaviors serve two related functions in individuals' attempts to maximize future relational outcomes. First, communication is directed at reducing uncertainty (Berger & Calabrese, 1975) about new acquaintances to determine likely outcome-values for the relational future. Second, communication proceeds in a manner predicted to result in the most positive outcomes. In a broad sense, these outcome value predictions would lead to communicative attempts to terminate or curtail the conversation, to continue the entry-level conversation, or to escalate the conversation
Conversation
Conversation is a form of interactive, spontaneous communication between two or more people who are following rules of etiquette.Conversation analysis is a branch of sociology which studies the structure and organization of human interaction, with a more specific focus on conversational...
and relationship beyond this level. Attempts to continue or escalate would result from positive predicted outcome values, while attempts to terminate or curtail would result from negative predictions. Given this, predicted outcome value theory proposes that several specific behaviors associated with conversational termination-escalation should be related to predicted outcome value levels.
Among these, Sunnafrank (1986) posits that predicted outcome value is positively related to amount of verbal communication, intimacy level of communication content, nonverbal affiliative expressiveness, and liking.
Key propositions of predicted outcome value theory
1. Attraction increases as the predicted outcome value increases2. Prediction of positive future outcomes leads to future interactions
3. Prediction of negative future outcomes ends future interactions
4. People focus and discuss topics in conversations that facilitate positive predicted outcomes
Related
Predicted outcome value theory is an alternative to uncertainty reduction theoryUncertainty reduction theory
Uncertainty Reduction Theory was introduced in 1975 in the paper Some Exploration in Initial Interaction and Beyond: Toward a Developmental Theory of Interpersonal Communication. This theory, a collaborative effort of Charles R. Berger and Richard J. Calabrese, was proposed to predict and explain...
, which Charles R. Berger
Charles Berger (academic)
Charles Berger is an American professor of communication at University of California, Davis, USA.Berger received his B.S. in Psychology from the Pennsylvania State University. After completing his undergraduate studies, he attended the Michigan State University where he received his M.A. and Ph.D....
and Richard J. Calabrese introduced in 1975. Uncertainty reduction theory states that the driving force in initial interactions is to collect information to predict attitudes and behaviors for future relationship development.
Sunnafrank challenges uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a term used in subtly different ways in a number of fields, including physics, philosophy, statistics, economics, finance, insurance, psychology, sociology, engineering, and information science...
reduction theory with his predicted outcome value theory in that initial interactions are not solely about reducing uncertainty within the relationship but motivated by the predicted outcome value. Sunnafrank ascertains that initial interactions only lead to continued relationship development after the person has determined future rewards and costs of that relationship.
Theory Developer
Michael Sunnafrank is a Professor in the Department of Communication, College of Liberal Arts at the University of Minnesota, Duluth. He joined the faculty at UMD in 1990 after fourteen years of teaching and research at Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University
Michigan State University is a public research university in East Lansing, Michigan, USA. Founded in 1855, it was the pioneer land-grant institution and served as a model for future land-grant colleges in the United States under the 1862 Morrill Act.MSU pioneered the studies of packaging,...
, University of California Davis, Arizona State University
Arizona State University
Arizona State University is a public research university located in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area of the State of Arizona...
and Texas A&M University
Texas A&M University
Texas A&M University is a coeducational public research university located in College Station, Texas . It is the flagship institution of the Texas A&M University System. The sixth-largest university in the United States, A&M's enrollment for Fall 2011 was over 50,000 for the first time in school...
. He was awarded his PhD and Masters degrees by Michigan State University.
Sunnafrank continues to work on research testing predicted outcome value theory.
Empirical Support for predicted outcome value theory
The "Communicative Influences on Perceived Similarity and Attraction: An Expansion of the Interpersonal Goals Perspective" study examined a potential initial acquaintance association between perceived similarity and attraction may be present, though undetected, in previous interpersonal goals research and finds support for interpersonal goals claims regarding the perceived similarity/attraction relationship.The findings extended Sunnafrank (1983, 1984, 1985) and Sunnafrank and Miller's (1981) claim that attitude similarity and attraction are unassociated in beginning communicative relationships. While their research supports this claim for attitude similarity revealed in pre-acquaintance, it also shows that this claim generalizes to more normally occurring perceptions of attitude similarity produced during initial relational stages. The results strongly suggested that traditional beliefs about, and theoretical interpretations of, the attitude similarity/attraction association are incorrect, at least regarding the initial acquaintance period.
Another study, "Predicted Outcome Value in Initial Conversations", provided the initial test of several predicted outcome value theory (Sunnafrank, 1986) propositions. Findings supported all hypotheses tested, and demonstrated that during initial conversations predicted outcome value is strongly and positively related to the amount of verbal communication, intimacy of communication content, nonverbal affiliation, liking and perceived similarity.
More recent research was designed to investigate positive and negative predictors of possible relationships by focusing on decisions to engage in future dates. Interpersonal attraction
Interpersonal attraction
Interpersonal attraction is the attraction between people which leads to friendships and romantic relationships. Interpersonal attraction, the process, is distinct from perceptions of physical attractiveness which involves views of what is and is not considered beautiful or attractive.The study of...
, homophily
Homophily
Homophily is the tendency of individuals to associate and bond with similar others. The presence of homophily has been discovered in a vast array of network studies. Within their extensive review paper, sociologists McPherson, Smith-Lovin and Cook cite over one hundred studies that have observed...
, and nonverbal immediacy have been linked to the predicted outcome value of relationships during initial encounters. This study investigates how these variables influence date decisions in a six minute speed-dating experience. Results indicated interpersonal attraction
Interpersonal attraction
Interpersonal attraction is the attraction between people which leads to friendships and romantic relationships. Interpersonal attraction, the process, is distinct from perceptions of physical attractiveness which involves views of what is and is not considered beautiful or attractive.The study of...
and nonverbal immediacy significantly predict predicted outcome value, but not future date decisions.
Featured research and theory development
Michael Sunnafrank and Artemio Ramirez Jr., assistant professor of communication at Ohio State UniversityOhio State University
The Ohio State University, commonly referred to as Ohio State, is a public research university located in Columbus, Ohio. It was originally founded in 1870 as a land-grant university and is currently the third largest university campus in the United States...
, conducted research which was published in the Journal of Social and Personal Relationships in 2004 and also featured on ABC news
ABC News
ABC News is the news gathering and broadcasting division of American broadcast television network ABC, a subsidiary of The Walt Disney Company...
. Sunnafrank and Ramirez studied 164 college freshmen over a nine-week period to determine the predicted outcome value of relationship development between strangers.
The study involved pairing two students of the same sex
Sex
In biology, sex is a process of combining and mixing genetic traits, often resulting in the specialization of organisms into a male or female variety . Sexual reproduction involves combining specialized cells to form offspring that inherit traits from both parents...
together the first day of class and introducing one another and then engaging in conversation
Conversation
Conversation is a form of interactive, spontaneous communication between two or more people who are following rules of etiquette.Conversation analysis is a branch of sociology which studies the structure and organization of human interaction, with a more specific focus on conversational...
for either three, six, or 10 minutes. Afterwards, researchers asked each student to predict the outcome of the relationship
Interpersonal relationship
An interpersonal relationship is an association between two or more people that may range from fleeting to enduring. This association may be based on limerence, love, solidarity, regular business interactions, or some other type of social commitment. Interpersonal relationships are formed in the...
by describing it as a nodding acquaintance, casual acquaintance, acquaintance, close acquaintance, friend, and close friend. The students also completed extensive questionnaires about the other person to determine how much they liked one another (Sunnafrank & Ramirez, 2004).
Over the nine-week period, Sunnafrank and Ramirez (2004) facilitated a classroom environment that allowed the students to continue to get to know one another. At the end of the nine weeks, those students who predicted positive outcomes developed strong relationships and their behavior
Behavior
Behavior or behaviour refers to the actions and mannerisms made by organisms, systems, or artificial entities in conjunction with its environment, which includes the other systems or organisms around as well as the physical environment...
indicated such as those students sat together in class and communicated on a regular basis. The strongest effect of the study existed in the relationships where there was a predicted negative outcome. If students decided after the initial interaction
Interaction
Interaction is a kind of action that occurs as two or more objects have an effect upon one another. The idea of a two-way effect is essential in the concept of interaction, as opposed to a one-way causal effect...
that they did not want the relationship to progress then the students acted accordingly by restricting conversation, avoiding eye contact
Eye contact
Eye contact is a meeting of the eyes between two individuals.In human beings, eye contact is a form of nonverbal communication and is thought to have a large influence on social behavior. Coined in the early to mid-1960s, the term has come in the West to often define the act as a meaningful and...
, and avoiding each other period.
Ramirez points out that there is power in first impressions. “People want to quickly determine if a person they just met is someone they are going to want to hang out with, or date, or spend more time with in the future. We don’t want to waste our time.”
One important point to consider about this study is that Sunnafrank says that college freshmen can be “aggressive” in pursuing new friendships and relationships within social circles and that behavior tends to change over time. “In most situations in life, our time is pretty much claimed by work and family matters, so even when you meet people you really like, chances are not much is going to happen. As life goes on and social networks become solidified, acting on that first impression becomes less likely.”
Sunnafrank concluded that other events throughout the course of relationships can change the predicted outcome value, which he calls “surprising events,” such as betraying one another’s trust by “back stabbing” and that not all relationships turn out as originally predicted. However, in this study, it is apparent that initial impressions and interactions can determine the outcome of the relationship, which is the predicted outcome value theory. While the college freshmen had numerous opportunities to develop their relationships over the nine-week period, the first impressions made lasting impacts.
External links
- http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/1stimpre.htm
- http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=69942&page=1
Other Resources
- Griffin, E. A. (2005). A first look at communication theory with conversation (6th ed.). Boston, MA: McGraw Hill.
- Guerrero, L.K., Andersen, P.A. & Afifi, W.A. (2007). Close encounters: Communicating in relationships (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.