Climate change mitigation scenarios
Encyclopedia
Climate change mitigation scenarios are possible futures in which global warming
Global warming
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...

 is reduced by deliberate actions, such as a comprehensive switch to energy sources other than fossil fuels. A typical mitigation scenario is constructed by selecting a long-range target, such as a desired atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide is a naturally occurring chemical compound composed of two oxygen atoms covalently bonded to a single carbon atom...

 (CO2), and then fitting the actions to the target, for example by placing a cap on net global and national emissions of greenhouse gas
Greenhouse gas
A greenhouse gas is a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect. The primary greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone...

es.

An increase of global temperature by more than 2°C has come to be the majority definition of what would constitute intolerably dangerous climate change
Climate change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...

, but some climate scientists are increasingly of the opinion that the goal should be a complete restoration of the atmosphere's preindustrial condition, on the grounds that too protracted a deviation from those conditions will produce irreversible changes.

Target levels of CO2

Contributions to climate change, whether they cool or warm the Earth
Earth
Earth is the third planet from the Sun, and the densest and fifth-largest of the eight planets in the Solar System. It is also the largest of the Solar System's four terrestrial planets...

, are often described in terms of the radiative forcing
Radiative forcing
In climate science, radiative forcing is generally defined as the change in net irradiance between different layers of the atmosphere. Typically, radiative forcing is quantified at the tropopause in units of watts per square meter. A positive forcing tends to warm the system, while a negative...

 or imbalance they introduce to the planet's energy budget
Energy budget
An energy budget is a balance sheet of energy income against expenditure. It is studied in the field of Energetics which deals with the study of energy transfer and transformation from one form to another. Calorie is the basic unit of measurement...

. Now and in the future, anthropogenic carbon dioxide is believed to be the major component of this forcing, and the contribution of other components is often quantified in terms of "parts-per-million CO2-equivalent" (ppm CO2e), or the increment/decrement in carbon dioxide concentrations which would create a radiative forcing of the same magnitude.

At present, non-CO2 contributions to climate change, positive and negative, are believed to roughly cancel out, so that the net radiative forcing being experienced at present, expressed in ppm CO2-e, is more or less the same as the actual current level of carbon dioxide (393 ppm CO2, as of April 2011). To some extent this legitimates the statement of targets just in terms of ppm CO2, as is usually the case. However, the positive and negative non-CO2 will not necessarily balance in future, and so a target stated in terms of CO2e is less ambiguous.

Stabilization wedges

A stabilization wedge (or simply "wedge") is an action which incrementally reduces projected emissions. (The name derives from the triangular shape of the gap between reduced and unreduced emissions trajectories, when graphed over time.) For example, a reduction in electricity demand due to increased efficiency means that less electricity needs to be generated and thus fewer emissions need to be produced. The term originates in the Stabilization Wedge Game
Stabilization Wedge Game
The Stabilization Wedge Game, or what is commonly referred to as simply the 'Wedge Game', is a serious game produced by Princeton University's Carbon Mitigation Initiative. The goal of the game creators, Stephen Pacala and Robert H...

.

350 ppm

This is the target level advocated in a recent paper by climate scientist James E. Hansen and others such as: Rajendra Pachauri, the U.N.
United Nations
The United Nations is an international organization whose stated aims are facilitating cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights, and achievement of world peace...

's "top climate scientist" and leader of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a scientific intergovernmental body which provides comprehensive assessments of current scientific, technical and socio-economic information worldwide about the risk of climate change caused by human activity, its potential environmental and...

 (IPCC), the Director of the University of Minnesota
University of Minnesota
The University of Minnesota, Twin Cities is a public research university located in Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota, United States. It is the oldest and largest part of the University of Minnesota system and has the fourth-largest main campus student body in the United States, with 52,557...

's Institute on the Environment, Jonathan Foley
, President of the Pacific Institute
Pacific Institute
The Pacific Institute is a non-profit research institute created in 1987 to provide independent research and policy analysis on issues at the intersection of development, environment, and security, with a particular focus on global and regional freshwater issues...

 Peter H. Gleick
Peter Gleick
Dr. Peter H. Gleick is a scientist working on issues related to the environment, economic development, and international security, with a focus on global freshwater challenges. He works at the Pacific Institute in Oakland, California, which he co-founded in 1987. In 2003 he was awarded a MacArthur...

, and the Policy Director of the Brookings Institution
Brookings Institution
The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit public policy organization based in Washington, D.C., in the United States. One of Washington's oldest think tanks, Brookings conducts research and education in the social sciences, primarily in economics, metropolitan policy, governance, foreign policy, and...

's Climate and Energy Economics Project Adele C. Morris. This maximum level is advocated by the 350.org
350.org
350.org is an international environmental organization, headed by author Bill McKibben, with the goal of building a global grassroots movement to raise awareness of anthropogenic climate change, to confront climate change denial, and to cut emissions of one of the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide,...

 campaign, along with other organizations such as the Tällberg Foundation
Tällberg Forum
The Tällberg Forum is a yearly meeting held by the Tällberg Foundation.The Tällberg Foundation began its activities in 1981 by organizing yearly Tällberg workshops on topics related to globalization and interdependence. Since then Tällberg has connected and helped leaders better understand the...

. A strategy proposed is (1) no further oil and gas exploration (so that only already-known reserves will be consumed), (2) the elimination of all uncaptured
Carbon capture and storage
Carbon capture and storage , alternatively referred to as carbon capture and sequestration, is a technology to prevent large quantities of from being released into the atmosphere from the use of fossil fuel in power generation and other industries. It is often regarded as a means of mitigating...

 burning of coal
Coal
Coal is a combustible black or brownish-black sedimentary rock usually occurring in rock strata in layers or veins called coal beds or coal seams. The harder forms, such as anthracite coal, can be regarded as metamorphic rock because of later exposure to elevated temperature and pressure...

 by 2030, and (3) an intensive program of reforestation and biochar
Biochar
Biochar or terra preta is charcoal created by pyrolysis of biomass. Biochar is under investigation as an approach to carbon sequestration via bio-energy with carbon capture and storage. Biochar thus has the potential to help mitigate climate change, via carbon sequestration...

 agriculture.

A mitigation scenario modeled by Malte Meinshausen et al. suggests that to stabilize CO2 at 350 ppm, we will need to reduce emissions by slightly more than 5% per year.

From an "energy technology and policy perspective", Joe Romm says a 350-ppm target will require eight wedges, each saving 1 gigaton of carbon per year, by 2030, and another ten by 2060.

At the 2008 United Nations Climate Change Conference
2008 United Nations Climate Change Conference
The 2008 United Nations Climate Change Conference took place at PIF Congress Centre, Poznań International Fair , in Poznań, Poland, between December 1 and December 12, 2008...

 in Poznań
Poznan
Poznań is a city on the Warta river in west-central Poland, with a population of 556,022 in June 2009. It is among the oldest cities in Poland, and was one of the most important centres in the early Polish state, whose first rulers were buried at Poznań's cathedral. It is sometimes claimed to be...

, Poland
Poland
Poland , officially the Republic of Poland , is a country in Central Europe bordered by Germany to the west; the Czech Republic and Slovakia to the south; Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania to the east; and the Baltic Sea and Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian exclave, to the north...

, the Least Developed Countries
Least Developed Countries
Least developed country is the name given to a country which, according to the United Nations, exhibits the lowest indicators of socioeconomic development, with the lowest Human Development Index ratings of all countries in the world...

 bloc spoke in favor of a 350 ppm target.

Nicholas Stern
Nicholas Stern
Nicholas Herbert Stern, Baron Stern of Brentford, Kt, FBA is a British economist and academic. He is IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government, Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics , and 2010 Professor of Collège de...

 of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, called the "world’s top climate economist", endorses 350 ppm as “a very sensible long-term target.”

Per "We can afford to save the planet" October 23, 2009 Eban Goodstein
Eban Goodstein
Eban S. Goodstein is an economist, author, and environmental educator known for his work in the clean energy movement, including educational campaigns which have engaged thousands of schools and universities, civic institutions, faith groups, and community collectives in solutions-driven dialogues...

, Frank Ackerman
Frank Ackerman
Frank Ackerman is an economist known for his work in environmental economics, particularly in the areas of climate change and development...

, Kristen Sheeran (of the Economics for Equity and the Environment Network (E3)
Economics for Equity and the Environment Network (E3)
Economics for Equity and the Environment Network is a network of economists doing applied research on environmental issues with a social equity focus...

), and Lester R. Brown
Lester R. Brown
Lester Russel Brown is a United States environmental analyst, founder of the Worldwatch Institute, and founder and president of the Earth Policy Institute, a nonprofit research organization based in Washington, D.C...

 per "We Only Have Months, Not Years, To Save Civilization From Climate Change", November 2009, are supporters of the 350 upper limit.

Per Will Steger
Will Steger
Will Steger is a prominent spokesperson for the understanding and preservation of the Arctic and has led some of the most significant feats in the field of dogsled expeditions; such as the first confirmed dogsled journey to the North Pole in 1986, the 1,600-mile south-north traverse of Greenland...

 Foundation Policy: "Stabilize CO2 in the atmosphere at 350 ppm".

Barbara Kingsolver
Barbara Kingsolver
Barbara Kingsolver is an American novelist, essayist and poet. She was raised in rural Kentucky and lived briefly in the former Republic of Congo in her early childhood. Kingsolver earned degrees in biology at DePauw University and the University of Arizona and worked as a freelance writer before...

, Ed Begley
Ed Begley
Edward James Begley, Sr. was an Academy Award-winning American actor.-Biography:Born in Hartford, Connecticut, Begley began his career as a Broadway and radio actor while in his teens. He appeared in the hit musical Going Up on Broadway in 1917 and in London the next year. He later acted in...

, Bonnie Raitt
Bonnie Raitt
Bonnie Lynn Raitt is an American blues singer-songwriter and a renowned slide guitar player. During the 1970s, Raitt released a series of acclaimed roots-influenced albums which incorporated elements of blues, rock, folk and country, but she is perhaps best known for her more commercially...

 Campaign to Cap Carbon Pollution at 350 PPM

In her speech "The World's Tipping Point
Tipping point (climatology)
A climate tipping point is a point when global climate changes from one stable state to another stable state, in a similar manner to a wine glass tipping over. After the tipping point has been passed, a transition to a new state occurs...

"http://greenbuilders.ning.com/profiles/blogs/bianca-jagger-speech, Bianca Jagger
Bianca Jagger
Bianca Jagger is a Nicaraguan-born social and human rights advocate and a former actress and model...


states “the safe upper limit for atmospheric CO2 is no more than 350 ppm." and quotes the report "The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization" by Stephen J. DeCanio, Eban Goodstein
Eban Goodstein
Eban S. Goodstein is an economist, author, and environmental educator known for his work in the clean energy movement, including educational campaigns which have engaged thousands of schools and universities, civic institutions, faith groups, and community collectives in solutions-driven dialogues...

, Richard B. Howarth, Richard B. Norgaard and Catherine S. Norman, stressing " the need for immediate, direct intervention".

Worldchanging
Worldchanging
Worldchanging is an American non-profit online magazine and blog about sustainability and social innovation. At 19/09/2011, it was taken over by Architecture for Humanity....

's Alex Steffen
Alex Steffen
Alex Steffen is an American writer, editor, public speaker and futurist most noted for his bright green ideas.Steffen co-founded and ran the online magazine Worldchanging from its start in 2003 until its closure in 2010...

 350 ppm also supports achieving the 350 ppm goal, such as in "Planetary Boundaries and the New Generation Gap"

Scientific American
Scientific American
Scientific American is a popular science magazine. It is notable for its long history of presenting science monthly to an educated but not necessarily scientific public, through its careful attention to the clarity of its text as well as the quality of its specially commissioned color graphics...

 August 2010 ocean acidification
Ocean acidification
Ocean acidification is the name given to the ongoing decrease in the pH and increase in acidity of the Earth's oceans, caused by the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere....

 article Threatening Oceans from the Inside Out: How Acidification Affects Marine Life Blue Ocean Institute
Blue Ocean Institute
Blue Ocean Institute is a 5013 nonprofit conservation organization headquartered in East Norwich, New York, that was founded in 2003 by MacArthur Fellow Dr. Carl Safina and collaborator Mercédès Lee. A central focus of Blue Ocean Institute is to inspire a closer relationship with the sea through...

 authors Marah J. Hardt and Carl Safina
Carl Safina
Carl Safina is president and co-founder of the , and author of several writings on marine ecology and the ocean, including the award winning and .-Biography:...

 support 350 ppm as the maximum upper limit of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for marine life health
Health
Health is the level of functional or metabolic efficiency of a living being. In humans, it is the general condition of a person's mind, body and spirit, usually meaning to be free from illness, injury or pain...

, see page 72 in print.
450 ppm

The BLUE scenarios in the IEA's Energy Technology Perspectives
Energy Technology Perspectives
Energy Technology Perspectives is a biennial publication of the International Energy Agency, subtitled "In support of the G8 Plan of Action". This refers to the G-8's 2005 request for advice from the IEA regarding issues such as how to achieve a 50% reduction in global emissions by 2050.ETP first...

 publication of 2008 describe pathways to a long-range concentration of 450 ppm. Joseph Romm has sketched how to achieve this target through the application of 14 wedges.

World Energy Outlook 2008, mentioned above, also describes a "450 Policy Scenario", in which extra energy investments to 2030 amount to $
United States dollar
The United States dollar , also referred to as the American dollar, is the official currency of the United States of America. It is divided into 100 smaller units called cents or pennies....

9.3 trillion over the Reference Scenario. The scenario also features, after 2020, the participation of major economies such as China and India
India
India , officially the Republic of India , is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by geographical area, the second-most populous country with over 1.2 billion people, and the most populous democracy in the world...

 in a global cap-and-trade scheme initially operating in OECD and European Union
European Union
The European Union is an economic and political union of 27 independent member states which are located primarily in Europe. The EU traces its origins from the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community , formed by six countries in 1958...

 countries.
550 ppm

This is the target advocated (as an upper bound) in the Stern Review
Stern Review
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is a 700-page report released for the British government on 30 October 2006 by economist Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and also chair of the Centre...

. As approximately a doubling of CO2 levels relative to preindustrial
Industrial society
In sociology, industrial society refers to a society driven by the use of technology to enable mass production, supporting a large population with a high capacity for division of labour. Such a structure developed in the west in the period of time following the Industrial Revolution, and replaced...

 times, it implies a temperature increase of about three degrees, according to conventional estimates of climate sensitivity
Climate sensitivity
Climate sensitivity is a measure of how responsive the temperature of the climate system is to a change in the radiative forcing. It is usually expressed as the temperature change associated with a doubling of the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere.The equilibrium climate...

. Pacala and Socolow list 15 "wedges", any 7 of which in combination should suffice to keep CO2 levels below 550 ppm.

The International Energy Agency
International Energy Agency
The International Energy Agency is a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organization established in the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1974 in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis...

's World Energy Outlook
World Energy Outlook
The annual World Energy Outlook is the International Energy Agency's flagship publication and it is widely recognised as the most authoritative energy source for global energy projections and analysis. It represents the leading source for medium to long-term energy market projections, extensive...

 report for 2008 describes a "Reference Scenario" for the world's energy future "which assumes no new government policies beyond those already adopted by mid-2008", and then a "550 Policy Scenario" in which further policies are adopted, a mixture of "cap-and-trade systems, sectoral
Economic sector
An economy may include several sectors , that evolved in successive phases.* The ancient economy was mainly based on subsistence farming....

 agreements and national measures". In the Reference Scenario, between 2006 and 2030 the world invests $26.3 trillion in energy-supply infrastructure; in the 550 Policy Scenario, a further $4.1 trillion is spent in this period, mostly on efficiency
Efficient energy use
Efficient energy use, sometimes simply called energy efficiency, is the goal of efforts to reduce the amount of energy required to provide products and services. For example, insulating a home allows a building to use less heating and cooling energy to achieve and maintain a comfortable temperature...

 increases which deliver fuel cost savings of over $7 trillion.

Other greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gas concentrations are aggregated in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent. Some multi-gas mitigation scenarios have been modeled by Meinshausen et al.

As a short-term focus

In a 2000 paper, Hansen argued that the 0.75° rise in average global temperatures over the last 100 years has been driven mainly by greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, since warming due to CO2 had been offset by cooling due to aerosols, implying the viability of a strategy initially based around reducing emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and of black carbon
Black carbon
In Climatology, black carbon or BC is a climate forcing agent formed through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuel, and biomass, and is emitted in both anthropogenic and naturally occurring soot. It consists of pure carbon in several linked forms...

, focusing on CO2 only in the longer run.

This was also argued by Veerabhadran Ramanathan
Veerabhadran Ramanathan
Veerabhadran Ramanathan is Victor Alderson Professor of Applied Ocean Sciences and director of the Center for Atmospheric Sciences at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego. He has contributed to many areas of the atmospheric sciences including developments to...

 and Jessica Seddon Wallack the September/October 2009 Foreign Affairs
Foreign Affairs
Foreign Affairs is an American magazine and website on international relations and U.S. foreign policy published since 1922 by the Council on Foreign Relations six times annually...



See also

  • Environmental protection
    Environmental protection
    Environmental protection is a practice of protecting the environment, on individual, organizational or governmental level, for the benefit of the natural environment and humans. Due to the pressures of population and our technology the biophysical environment is being degraded, sometimes permanently...

  • Adaptation to global warming
    Adaptation to global warming
    Adaptation to global warming and climate change is a response to climate change that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change effects. Even if emissions are stabilized relatively soon, climate change and its effects will last many years, and adaptation will...

  • Geoengineering
    Geoengineering
    The concept of Geoengineering refers to the deliberate large-scale engineering and manipulation of the planetary environment to combat or counteract anthropogenic changes in atmospheric chemistry The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2007 that geoengineering options, such...

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