Literary Digest
Encyclopedia
The Literary Digest was an influential general interest weekly magazine
published by Funk & Wagnalls. Founded by Isaac Kaufmann Funk
in 1890, it eventually merged with two similar weekly magazines, Public Opinion and Current Opinion.
, only to fail soon after. Its subscriber list was bought by Time
.
A column in the Digest, known as "The Lexicographer's Easy Chair", was produced by Frank Horace Vizetelly
.
governor of Kansas
, Alf Landon
, would likely be the overwhelming winner. This seemed possible to some, as the Republicans had fared well in Maine
, where the congressional and gubernatorial elections were then held in September - as opposed to the rest of the nation, where these elections were held in November along with the presidential election, like today. This seemed especially likely in light of the conventional wisdom, "As Maine goes, so goes the nation
", a truism coined because Maine was regarded as a "bellwether
" state which usually supported the winning candidate's party.
In November, Landon carried only Vermont
and Maine
; U.S. President
Franklin Delano Roosevelt carried the 46 other states; Landon's electoral vote total of eight is a tie for the record low for a major-party nominee since the current U.S. two-party system
began in the 1850s. The Democrats joked, "As goes Maine, so goes Vermont," and the magazine was completely discredited because of the poll and was soon discontinued.
In retrospect, the polling techniques employed by the magazine were to blame. Although it had polled 10 million individuals (only about 2.4 million of these individuals responded, an astronomical sum for any survey), it had surveyed firstly its own readers, a group with disposable incomes well above the national average of the time (shown in part by their ability still to afford a magazine subscription during the depths of the Great Depression
). The magazine also used two other readily available lists: that of registered automobile
owners and that of telephone
users. While such lists might come close to providing a statistically-accurate cross-section of Americans today, this assumption was manifestly untrue in the 1930s. Both groups had incomes well above the national average of the day, which resulted in lists of voters far more likely to support Republicans
than a truly typical voter of the time.
In addition, although 2.4 million responses is an astronomical number, it is only 24% of those surveyed, and the low response rate to the poll is probably a factor in the debacle. It is error to assume that the responders and the non-responders had the same views and merely extrapolate the former on to the latter. Further, as subsequent statisical analysis and study have shown, it is not necessary to poll 10 million people when conducting a scientific survey. A much lesser number (e.g. 1,500 persons) if appropriately chosen is adequate in most cases.
George Gallup
's American Institute of Public Opinion achieved national recognition by correctly predicting the result of the election, and for correctly predicting the results of the Literary Digest poll to within about 1%, using a smaller sample size of 50,000.
This debacle led to a considerable refinement of public opinion polling techniques and was largely regarded as spurring the beginning of the era of modern scientific public opinion research.
Magazine
Magazines, periodicals, glossies or serials are publications, generally published on a regular schedule, containing a variety of articles. They are generally financed by advertising, by a purchase price, by pre-paid magazine subscriptions, or all three...
published by Funk & Wagnalls. Founded by Isaac Kaufmann Funk
Isaac Kaufmann Funk
Isaac Kaufmann Funk was an American Lutheran minister, editor, lexicographer, publisher, and spelling reformer. He was the co-founder of Funk & Wagnalls Company, the father of author Wilfred J. Funk, and the grandfather of author Peter Funk...
in 1890, it eventually merged with two similar weekly magazines, Public Opinion and Current Opinion.
History
Beginning with early issues, the emphasis was on opinion articles and an analysis of news events. Established as a weekly newsmagazine, it offered condensations of articles from American, Canadian and European publications. Type-only covers gave way to illustrated covers during the early 1900s. After Isaac Funk's death in 1912, Robert Joseph Cuddihy became the editor. In the 1920s, the covers carried full-color reproductions of famous paintings. By 1927, The Literary Digest climbed to a circulation of over one million. Covers of the final issues displayed various photographic and photo-montage techniques. In 1938, it merged with the Review of ReviewsReview of Reviews
The Review of Reviews was a noted family of monthly journals founded in 1890-93 by British reform journalist William Thomas Stead...
, only to fail soon after. Its subscriber list was bought by Time
Time (magazine)
Time is an American news magazine. A European edition is published from London. Time Europe covers the Middle East, Africa and, since 2003, Latin America. An Asian edition is based in Hong Kong...
.
A column in the Digest, known as "The Lexicographer's Easy Chair", was produced by Frank Horace Vizetelly
Frank Horace Vizetelly
-Life:Vizetelly was born April 2, 1864, in England, the only son of Henry Vizetelly and his second wife, Elizabeth Anne Ansell. His half-brother was Ernest Alfred Vizetelly...
.
Presidential poll
The Literary Digest is almost certainly best-remembered today for the circumstances surrounding its demise. It conducted a "straw poll" regarding the likely outcome of the 1936 presidential election. The poll showed that the RepublicanRepublican Party (United States)
The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Democratic Party. Founded by anti-slavery expansion activists in 1854, it is often called the GOP . The party's platform generally reflects American conservatism in the U.S...
governor of Kansas
Governor of Kansas
The Governor of the State of Kansas is the head of state for the State of Kansas, United States. Under the Kansas Constitution, the Governor is also the head of government, serving as the chief executive of the Kansas executive branch, of the government of Kansas. The Governor is the...
, Alf Landon
Alf Landon
Alfred Mossman "Alf" Landon was an American Republican politician, who served as the 26th Governor of Kansas from 1933–1937. He was best known for being the Republican Party's nominee for President of the United States, defeated in a landslide by Franklin D...
, would likely be the overwhelming winner. This seemed possible to some, as the Republicans had fared well in Maine
Maine
Maine is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States, bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the east and south, New Hampshire to the west, and the Canadian provinces of Quebec to the northwest and New Brunswick to the northeast. Maine is both the northernmost and easternmost...
, where the congressional and gubernatorial elections were then held in September - as opposed to the rest of the nation, where these elections were held in November along with the presidential election, like today. This seemed especially likely in light of the conventional wisdom, "As Maine goes, so goes the nation
As Maine goes, so goes the nation
"As Maine goes, so goes the nation" is a phrase that at one time was in wide currency in United States politics. The phrase described Maine's reputation as a bellwether state for presidential elections...
", a truism coined because Maine was regarded as a "bellwether
Bellwether
A bellwether is any entity in a given arena that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings.The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram leading his flock of sheep.The movements of...
" state which usually supported the winning candidate's party.
In November, Landon carried only Vermont
Vermont
Vermont is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States of America. The state ranks 43rd in land area, , and 45th in total area. Its population according to the 2010 census, 630,337, is the second smallest in the country, larger only than Wyoming. It is the only New England...
and Maine
Maine
Maine is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States, bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the east and south, New Hampshire to the west, and the Canadian provinces of Quebec to the northwest and New Brunswick to the northeast. Maine is both the northernmost and easternmost...
; U.S. President
President of the United States
The President of the United States of America is the head of state and head of government of the United States. The president leads the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces....
Franklin Delano Roosevelt carried the 46 other states; Landon's electoral vote total of eight is a tie for the record low for a major-party nominee since the current U.S. two-party system
Two-party system
A two-party system is a system where two major political parties dominate voting in nearly all elections at every level of government and, as a result, all or nearly all elected offices are members of one of the two major parties...
began in the 1850s. The Democrats joked, "As goes Maine, so goes Vermont," and the magazine was completely discredited because of the poll and was soon discontinued.
In retrospect, the polling techniques employed by the magazine were to blame. Although it had polled 10 million individuals (only about 2.4 million of these individuals responded, an astronomical sum for any survey), it had surveyed firstly its own readers, a group with disposable incomes well above the national average of the time (shown in part by their ability still to afford a magazine subscription during the depths of the Great Depression
Great Depression
The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in about 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s or early 1940s...
). The magazine also used two other readily available lists: that of registered automobile
Automobile
An automobile, autocar, motor car or car is a wheeled motor vehicle used for transporting passengers, which also carries its own engine or motor...
owners and that of telephone
Telephone
The telephone , colloquially referred to as a phone, is a telecommunications device that transmits and receives sounds, usually the human voice. Telephones are a point-to-point communication system whose most basic function is to allow two people separated by large distances to talk to each other...
users. While such lists might come close to providing a statistically-accurate cross-section of Americans today, this assumption was manifestly untrue in the 1930s. Both groups had incomes well above the national average of the day, which resulted in lists of voters far more likely to support Republicans
Republican Party (United States)
The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Democratic Party. Founded by anti-slavery expansion activists in 1854, it is often called the GOP . The party's platform generally reflects American conservatism in the U.S...
than a truly typical voter of the time.
In addition, although 2.4 million responses is an astronomical number, it is only 24% of those surveyed, and the low response rate to the poll is probably a factor in the debacle. It is error to assume that the responders and the non-responders had the same views and merely extrapolate the former on to the latter. Further, as subsequent statisical analysis and study have shown, it is not necessary to poll 10 million people when conducting a scientific survey. A much lesser number (e.g. 1,500 persons) if appropriately chosen is adequate in most cases.
George Gallup
George Gallup
George Horace Gallup was an American pioneer of survey sampling techniques and inventor of the Gallup poll, a successful statistical method of survey sampling for measuring public opinion.-Biography:...
's American Institute of Public Opinion achieved national recognition by correctly predicting the result of the election, and for correctly predicting the results of the Literary Digest poll to within about 1%, using a smaller sample size of 50,000.
This debacle led to a considerable refinement of public opinion polling techniques and was largely regarded as spurring the beginning of the era of modern scientific public opinion research.