Doomsday Clock
Encyclopedia
The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face, maintained since 1947 by the board of directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
at the University of Chicago
. The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is estimated to be to global disaster. , the Doomsday Clock now stands at six minutes to midnight. Since its creation, the time on the clock has changed 19 times.
Originally, the analogy represented the threat of global nuclear war
, but since 2007 it has also reflected climate-changing
technologies and "new developments in the life sciences and nanotechnology
that could inflict irrevocable harm."
Since its inception, the clock has been depicted on every cover of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Its first representation was in 1947, when magazine co-founder Hyman Goldsmith asked artist Martyl Langsdorf (wife of Manhattan Project
research associate and Szilárd petition
signatory Alexander Langsdorf, Jr.) to design a cover for the magazine's June 1947 issue.
, the clock was started at seven minutes to midnight and was subsequently advanced or rewound per the state of the world and nuclear war
prospects. Setting the clock is relatively arbitrary, and decided by the directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reflecting global affairs. The clock has not always been set and reset as quickly as events occur; the closest nuclear war threat, the Cuban Missile Crisis
in 1962, reached crisis, climax, and resolution before it could be set to reflect that possible doomsday.
The most recent officially-announced setting — six minutes to midnight — was on 14 January 2010. Reflecting international events dangerous to humankind, the clock hands have been set nineteen times, since its initial start at seven minutes to midnight in 1947.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is a nontechnical online magazine that covers global security and public policy issues, especially related to the dangers posed by nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction...
at the University of Chicago
University of Chicago
The University of Chicago is a private research university in Chicago, Illinois, USA. It was founded by the American Baptist Education Society with a donation from oil magnate and philanthropist John D. Rockefeller and incorporated in 1890...
. The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is estimated to be to global disaster. , the Doomsday Clock now stands at six minutes to midnight. Since its creation, the time on the clock has changed 19 times.
Originally, the analogy represented the threat of global nuclear war
Nuclear holocaust
Nuclear holocaust refers to the possibility of the near complete annihilation of human civilization by nuclear warfare. Under such a scenario, all or most of the Earth is made uninhabitable by nuclear weapons in future world wars....
, but since 2007 it has also reflected climate-changing
Climate change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...
technologies and "new developments in the life sciences and nanotechnology
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology is the study of manipulating matter on an atomic and molecular scale. Generally, nanotechnology deals with developing materials, devices, or other structures possessing at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100 nanometres...
that could inflict irrevocable harm."
Manhattan Project
The Manhattan Project was a research and development program, led by the United States with participation from the United Kingdom and Canada, that produced the first atomic bomb during World War II. From 1942 to 1946, the project was under the direction of Major General Leslie Groves of the US Army...
research associate and Szilárd petition
Szilárd petition
The Szilárd petition, drafted by scientist Leó Szilárd, was signed by 155 scientists working on the Manhattan Project in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and the Metallurgical Laboratory in Chicago, Illinois. It was circulated in July 1945 and asked President Harry S. Truman to consider an observed...
signatory Alexander Langsdorf, Jr.) to design a cover for the magazine's June 1947 issue.
Time changes
In 1947, during the Cold WarCold War
The Cold War was the continuing state from roughly 1946 to 1991 of political conflict, military tension, proxy wars, and economic competition between the Communist World—primarily the Soviet Union and its satellite states and allies—and the powers of the Western world, primarily the United States...
, the clock was started at seven minutes to midnight and was subsequently advanced or rewound per the state of the world and nuclear war
Nuclear warfare
Nuclear warfare, or atomic warfare, is a military conflict or political strategy in which nuclear weaponry is detonated on an opponent. Compared to conventional warfare, nuclear warfare can be vastly more destructive in range and extent of damage...
prospects. Setting the clock is relatively arbitrary, and decided by the directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reflecting global affairs. The clock has not always been set and reset as quickly as events occur; the closest nuclear war threat, the Cuban Missile Crisis
Cuban Missile Crisis
The Cuban Missile Crisis was a confrontation among the Soviet Union, Cuba and the United States in October 1962, during the Cold War...
in 1962, reached crisis, climax, and resolution before it could be set to reflect that possible doomsday.
The most recent officially-announced setting — six minutes to midnight — was on 14 January 2010. Reflecting international events dangerous to humankind, the clock hands have been set nineteen times, since its initial start at seven minutes to midnight in 1947.
| Year | Mins Left | Time | Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1947 | 7 | 11:53pm | — | The initial setting of the Doomsday Clock. |
| 1949 | 3 | 11:57pm | −4 | The Soviet Union tests Soviet atomic bomb project The Soviet project to develop an atomic bomb , was a clandestine research and development program began during and post-World War II, in the wake of the Soviet Union's discovery of the United States' nuclear project... its first atomic bomb, officially starting the nuclear arms race. |
| 1953 | 2 | 11:58pm | −1 | The United States United States The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district... and the Soviet Union test thermonuclear devices within nine months of one another. (This is the clock's closest approach to midnight since its inception.) |
| 1960 | 7 | 11:53pm | +5 | In response to a perception of increased scientific cooperation and public understanding of the dangers of nuclear weapons, as well political actions taken to avoid "massive retaliation." The United States and Soviet Union cooperate and direct confrontation in regional conflicts such as the 1956 Suez Crisis Suez Crisis The Suez Crisis, also referred to as the Tripartite Aggression, Suez War was an offensive war fought by France, the United Kingdom, and Israel against Egypt beginning on 29 October 1956. Less than a day after Israel invaded Egypt, Britain and France issued a joint ultimatum to Egypt and Israel,... . Scientists from different countries help establish the International Geophysical Year International Geophysical Year The International Geophysical Year was an international scientific project that lasted from July 1, 1957, to December 31, 1958. It marked the end of a long period during the Cold War when scientific interchange between East and West was seriously interrupted... - a series of coordinated, worldwide scientific observations between nations allied with both the United States and Soviet Union- between years 1957 and 1958 and Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs The Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs is an international organization that brings together scholars and public figures to work toward reducing the danger of armed conflict and to seek solutions to global security threats... , which allow Soviet and American scientists to interact. |
| 1963 | 12 | 11:48pm | +5 | The United States and Soviet Union sign the Partial Test Ban Treaty Partial Test Ban Treaty The treaty banning nuclear weapon tests in the atmosphere, in outer space and under water, often abbreviated as the Partial Test Ban Treaty , Limited Test Ban Treaty , or Nuclear Test Ban Treaty is a treaty prohibiting all test detonations of nuclear weapons... , limiting atmospheric nuclear testing. |
| 1968 | 7 | 11:53pm | −5 | Vietnam War Vietnam War The Vietnam War was a Cold War-era military conflict that occurred in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia from 1 November 1955 to the fall of Saigon on 30 April 1975. This war followed the First Indochina War and was fought between North Vietnam, supported by its communist allies, and the government of... intensifies. Six Day War occurs in 1967. Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 The Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 was a culmination of skirmishes that took place between April 1965 and September 1965 between Pakistan and India. This conflict became known as the Second Kashmir War fought by India and Pakistan over the disputed region of Kashmir, the first having been fought in 1947... takes place. Worse yet, France France The French Republic , The French Republic , The French Republic , (commonly known as France , is a unitary semi-presidential republic in Western Europe with several overseas territories and islands located on other continents and in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans. Metropolitan France... and China China Chinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture... acquire and test nuclear weapons (1960 (Gerboise Bleue Gerboise Bleue Gerboise Bleue was the name of the first French nuclear test. It was an atomic bomb detonated in the middle of the Algerian Sahara desert on 13 February 1960, during the Algerian War... nuclear test) and 1964 (596 nuclear test 596 (nuclear test) 596 is the codename of the People's Republic of China's first nuclear weapons test, detonated on October 16, 1964 at the Lop Nur test site. It was a uranium-235 implosion fission device and had a yield of 22 kilotons... ) respectively). |
| 1969 | 10 | 11:50pm | +3 | The U.S. Senate ratifies the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT, is a landmark international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to... . |
| 1972 | 12 | 11:48pm | +2 | The United States and the Soviet Union sign the SALT I (Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty) and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty was a treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union on the limitation of the anti-ballistic missile systems used in defending areas against missile-delivered nuclear weapons.... . |
| 1974 | 9 | 11:51pm | −3 | India India India , officially the Republic of India , is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by geographical area, the second-most populous country with over 1.2 billion people, and the most populous democracy in the world... tests a nuclear device (Smiling Buddha Smiling Buddha The Smiling Buddha, formally designated as Pokhran-I, was the codename given to Republic of India's first nuclear test explosion that took place at the long-constructed Indian Army base, Pokhran Test Range at Pokhran municipality, Rajasthan state on 18 May 1974 at 8:05 a.m.... ), SALT II talks stall. Both the United States and the Soviet Union modernize MIRVs Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle A multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle warhead is a collection of nuclear weapons carried on a single intercontinental ballistic missile or a submarine-launched ballistic missile . Using a MIRV warhead, a single launched missile can strike several targets, or fewer targets redundantly... |
| 1980 | 7 | 11:53pm | −2 | Further deadlock in US-Soviet Union talks. In protest to the Soviet-Afghan War, President Carter pulls the United States from the 1980 Summer Olympics 1980 Summer Olympics The 1980 Summer Olympics, officially known as the Games of the XXII Olympiad, was an international multi-sport event celebrated in Moscow in the Soviet Union. In addition, the yachting events were held in Tallinn, and some of the preliminary matches and the quarter-finals of the football tournament... in Moscow and considers ways in which US can win nuclear war. |
| 1981 | 4 | 11:56pm | −3 | Soviet-Afghan War hardens the US nuclear posture. Ronald Reagan becomes president, scraps further arms control talks with the Soviet Union and argues that the only way to end the Cold War is to win it. |
| 1984 | 3 | 11:57pm | −1 | Further escalation of the arms race between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. |
| 1988 | 6 | 11:54pm | +3 | The U.S. and the Soviet Union sign treaty to eliminate intermediate-range nuclear forces Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is a 1987 agreement between the United States and the Soviet Union. Signed in Washington, D.C. by U.S. President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev on December 8, 1987, it was ratified by the United States Senate on May 27, 1988 and... , relations improve. |
| 1990 | 10 | 11:50pm | +4 | Fall of the Berlin Wall Berlin Wall The Berlin Wall was a barrier constructed by the German Democratic Republic starting on 13 August 1961, that completely cut off West Berlin from surrounding East Germany and from East Berlin... , dissolution of Iron Curtain Iron Curtain The concept of the Iron Curtain symbolized the ideological fighting and physical boundary dividing Europe into two separate areas from the end of World War II in 1945 until the end of the Cold War in 1989... sealing off Eastern Europe, Cold War Cold War The Cold War was the continuing state from roughly 1946 to 1991 of political conflict, military tension, proxy wars, and economic competition between the Communist World—primarily the Soviet Union and its satellite states and allies—and the powers of the Western world, primarily the United States... nearing an end. |
| 1991 | 17 | 11:43pm | +7 | United States and Soviet Union sign the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. (This is the clock's earliest setting since its inception.) |
| 1995 | 14 | 11:46pm | −3 | Global military spending continues at Cold War levels; concerns about post-Soviet nuclear proliferation of weapons and brainpower. |
| 1998 | 9 | 11:51pm | −5 | Both India India India , officially the Republic of India , is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by geographical area, the second-most populous country with over 1.2 billion people, and the most populous democracy in the world... (Pokhran-II Pokhran-II Pokharan-II refers to test explosions of five nuclear devices, three on 11 May and two on 13 May 1998, conducted by India at the Pokhran test range. These nuclear tests resulted in a variety of sanctions against India by a number of major states.... ) and Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan , officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a sovereign state in South Asia. It has a coastline along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman in the south and is bordered by Afghanistan and Iran in the west, India in the east and China in the far northeast. In the north, Tajikistan... (Chagai-I Chagai-I The Chagai-I was a codename referring to the five underground nuclear tests conducted by Pakistan at 15:15hrs in 28th May of 1998. It was named Chagai-I, as the tests were conducted in the Chagai District... ) test nuclear weapons in a tit-for-tat show of aggression; the United States and Russia run into difficulties in further reducing stockpiles. |
| 2002 | 7 | 11:53pm | −2 | Little progress on global nuclear disarmament; United States rejects a series of arms control treaties and announces its intentions to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty was a treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union on the limitation of the anti-ballistic missile systems used in defending areas against missile-delivered nuclear weapons.... ; concerns about the possibility of a nuclear terrorist attack due to the amount of weapon-grade nuclear materials that are unsecured and unaccounted for worldwide. |
| 2007 | 5 | 11:55pm | −2 | North Korea's test North Korean missile tests There have been a number of North Korean missile tests. It has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan , apparently as political gestures.* 2009 North Korean missile test... of a nuclear weapon, Iran's nuclear ambitions Nuclear program of Iran The nuclear program of Iran was launched in the 1950s with the help of the United States as part of the Atoms for Peace program. The support, encouragement and participation of the United States and Western European governments in Iran's nuclear program continued until the 1979 Iranian Revolution... , a renewed U.S. emphasis on the military utility of nuclear weapons, the failure to adequately secure nuclear materials, and the continued presence of some 26,000 nuclear weapons in the United States and Russia. Some scientists, assessing the dangers posed to civilization, have added climate change Climate change Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average... to the prospect of nuclear annihilation as the greatest threats to humankind. |
| 2010 | 6 | 11:54pm | +1 | Worldwide cooperation to reduce nuclear arsenals and limit effect of climate change. |
See also
- Doomsday deviceDoomsday deviceA doomsday device is a hypothetical construction — usually a weapon, or collection of weapons — which could destroy all life on a planet, particularly the Earth, or destroy the planet itself, bringing "doomsday", a term used for the end of planet Earth...
- Mutual assured destructionMutual assured destructionMutual Assured Destruction, or mutually assured destruction , is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy in which a full-scale use of high-yield weapons of mass destruction by two opposing sides would effectively result in the complete, utter and irrevocable annihilation of...
- Risks to civilization, humans and planet EarthRisks to civilization, humans and planet EarthVarious existential risks could threaten humankind as a whole, have adverse consequences for the course of human civilization, or even cause the end of planet Earth.-Types of risks:...
- Svalbard Global Seed VaultSvalbard Global Seed VaultThe Svalbard Global Seed Vault is a secure seedbank located on the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen near the town of Longyearbyen in the remote Arctic Svalbard archipelago, about from the North Pole. The facility preserves a wide variety of plant seeds in an underground cavern. The seeds are...