Diversionary Foreign Policy
Encyclopedia
A diversionary foreign policy, or a diversionary war, is an International Relations
term that identifies a war
instigated by a country's leader in order to distract its population from their own domestic strife. The concept stems from the Diversionary War Theory, which states that leaders who are threatened by domestic turmoil occasionally initiate an international conflict in order to shift the nation's attention away from internal troubles. As a result, this external threat would counter the domestic strife and ensure the leader's position in power. Essentially, a diversionary use of force is a manipulation of the Rally Round the Flag Syndrome
effect, causing an increase of national fervor from the general public.
Many scholars of International Relations have dedicated much research to the practical application of diversionary war. A large percentage investigates United States
presidents and their disputed culpability partaking in diversionary foreign policy .
Despite the immense amount of effort and research, scholars have not yet formed a consensus of the accuracy of the theory, and empirical evidence is mixed at best .
Generally, the pursuit of a diversionary foreign policy may offer the leader in power four benefits, all of which increase their ability to remain in power:
Negative
However, all of these benefits depend on success in the diversionary war that the government facing domestic strife incites. Failure in these international actions would backfire against the leader's initial intent. As a result, the leader would likely face more domestic strife, possibly hastening his or her loss of power
Nevertheless, this possible negative effect is addressed in the Diversionary War Theory. The theory itself states that rational leaders facing a near inevitable removal from office become more likely to gamble on a risky diversionary war. If the existing dissatisfaction is prompting their removal from office, a diversionary foreign policy only leaves room for gain
until the past half-century, the benefits of a diversionary foreign policy had long been accepted by governments and others as conventional wisdom
.
In 1956, political scientists Simmel and Coser both published work applying the in-group/out-group psychology hypothesis towards International Relations. Essentially, their work postulated that populations of nations increase in their cohesion during times of conflict with an out-group (another nation, organization, etc.) .
This often includes rallying around the country's leader. As an example, President George W. Bush
's approval ratings soared to 80% following the attacks on September 11, 2001. This type of response suggests that leaders have an incentive to manufacture conflict whenever they are in the need of a boost of popularity.
From this assertion, scholars have used this conventional wisdom to expand and test the theory's true applications .
A significant number of studies have attempted to establish connections between the instigation of war as a way to divert attention from a struggling economy
, or general low approval ratings .
In addition, the theory has diverged into contemporary and traditional perspectives.
. The theory predicts that the use of external force will increase the chance of reelection, so it would be used during a time when the president does not seem to have a good chance of reelection. The necessary conditions of the opposing state differ based on which theory one ascribes to, traditional or contemporary. The traditional view of diversionary foreign policy suggests that a state will target another in which conflict is likely to be prolonged, which would be against states with comparable military
capabilities. According to this point of view, the prospect of victory is not the most important aspect in choosing an enemy because it is based on a sociological "in-group/out-group" perspective. This refers to the increase of cohesion among the "in-group" because of the common enemy or "out-group." On the other hand, contemporary diversionary theory states that, due to the uncertainty of international relations and the high cost of war, a state is more likely to prey on a weaker state where victory will be more quickly and easily obtained
Overall, diversionary foreign policy is more likely in a major power
because they are less constrained by the international community
. It is also seen more in democracies where the government needs to be more responsive to public sentiment
Election cycles have a lot to do with diversionary wars because a war ideally increases the chance that the incumbent
administration will remain
of 1904. During the months leading up war, Russia
experienced numerous workers strikes
that lead to internal unsettledness These strikes coincided with the Russian's negotiations with the Japanese over expansion in Manchuria and Korea. As a way to distract their population, the Russian Tzar and his ministers decided to goad the Japanese into declaring war, thereby turning Japan
into the needed out-group . In fact, Russia's Minister of the Interior, Vyacheslav von Phleve, stated before starting the war :
Clearly, the Russians believed that by a diversionary war, they would be able to distract their population from the domestic troubles that had been haunting Russia.
However, the Russo-Japanese War is also in example of how a diversionary war can backfire. Japan soundly defeated Russia in battle. This only aggravated the calls for replacing the Tzar, loosened the Tzar's grip on power, and some say hastened the path toward the Russian Revolution of 1905 and eventually 1916 .
The French Revolutionary Wars of 1792: In 1792, the French Government comprised a newly formed National Assembly
, which had replaced King Louis XVI. In order to unify its citizens under the new flag and new leadership, the National Assembly began the French Revolutionary Wars
. It first declared war on Austria
, soon to be joined by Prussia
(
The Franco-Prussian War: Otto von Bismark utilized diversionary foreign policy often during his quest to unify Germany. These wars distracted the German people from the cultural difference that previously had prevented them from forming a single country. Bismark used the success of the Franco-Prussian War
in a similar fashion, officially establishing a German Empire following the siege of Paris .
Vietnam War (1963–1969): During a period of major social movements and widespread domestic issues within the country, the United States intervened in the conflict between North and South Vietnam
under the policy of containment
. This failed to unite the country. In fact, many did not see the justification in going to war and started a large anti-war movement, yet Lyndon B. Johnson
was reelected while the war was taking place.
Gulf War (2 August 1990-28 February 1991) After Iraq invaded Kuwait, the United States deployed troops to the area and were then backed by the U.N. in "Operation Desert Storm." The conflict was quickly resolved and George Bush
's approval ratings soared, although, this did not lead to his reelection.
Iraq War (March 20, 2003–present) After the attacks on September 11, the U.S. public was devastated and afraid. The economy was also not doing well. Iraq's alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) was considered an immediate threat to the United States. The occupation of Iraq was considered successful and the ongoing conflict led to George W. Bush
's reelection. As the war continued and the economy worsened, Bush's approval ratings dropped.
The focus of the Diversionary War theory on individual state actors and their domestic situations as causes for war challenges the basis of major approaches to International Relations. Many of these International Relation theories used by scholars, such as liberalism
and realism, focus on states as the main actors in the international system. Technically, this is referred to as using the interstate level of analysis. These scholars attribute the motives and actions of states to the states themselves, instead of the decision makers inside their governments .
On the other hand, the use of diversionary foreign policy suggests that factors inside of a state, such as domestic disputes and economic lows, have as much of an impact on foreign policy
as national interests. As a result, examinations of the use of diversionary wars shift the study of International Relations away from the interstate level of analysis, toward the domestic level of analysis, and even the individual level of analysis In fact, many critics of realism use examples of the use of diversionary wars as a means to discredit the theory
This creates a discrepancy between the theoretical and historical text and the empirical evidence . Therefore, a good amount of criticism arises.
To begin with, there is an opposing theory that argues a state leader has the most leverage when citizens are content with domestic policy and he has high public approval ratings. It is then assumed that leaders are most likely to engage in international conflicts when the domestic approval is highest . Furthermore, some analysts argue that the entire basis for the argument, the idea that a foreign enemy brings a country together, is not as well founded as it originally seems. This idea relies heavily on sociological studies that focus on the cohesion of small groups. Problems arise when theorists try to apply this to a large group such as a nation state, which is composed of many smaller groups. In fact, there are examples of external conflict leading to more unrest between domestic groups. For example, WWI led to internal problems in Russia, eventually culminating in the Bolshevik Revolution
Some also argue that a government cannot just incite an international conflict whenever they wish. Although there are always conflicts going on among the international community, not all are compelling enough to justify the use of force to the public and the government may even be accused of overreacting to a situation .
International relations
International relations is the study of relationships between countries, including the roles of states, inter-governmental organizations , international nongovernmental organizations , non-governmental organizations and multinational corporations...
term that identifies a war
War
War is a state of organized, armed, and often prolonged conflict carried on between states, nations, or other parties typified by extreme aggression, social disruption, and usually high mortality. War should be understood as an actual, intentional and widespread armed conflict between political...
instigated by a country's leader in order to distract its population from their own domestic strife. The concept stems from the Diversionary War Theory, which states that leaders who are threatened by domestic turmoil occasionally initiate an international conflict in order to shift the nation's attention away from internal troubles. As a result, this external threat would counter the domestic strife and ensure the leader's position in power. Essentially, a diversionary use of force is a manipulation of the Rally Round the Flag Syndrome
Rally Round the Flag Syndrome
The rally 'round the flag effect is a concept used in political science and international relations to explain increased short-run popular support of the President of the United States during periods of international crisis or war...
effect, causing an increase of national fervor from the general public.
Many scholars of International Relations have dedicated much research to the practical application of diversionary war. A large percentage investigates United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
presidents and their disputed culpability partaking in diversionary foreign policy .
Despite the immense amount of effort and research, scholars have not yet formed a consensus of the accuracy of the theory, and empirical evidence is mixed at best .
Effects
IntendedGenerally, the pursuit of a diversionary foreign policy may offer the leader in power four benefits, all of which increase their ability to remain in power:
- A successful diversionary foreign policy could increase support for the domestic regime. This in turn increases that government's time to address their internal trouble.
- Artificial tension created from the international conflict may justify a leaders' suppression of dissentSuppression of dissentSuppression of dissent occurs when an individual or group which is more powerful than another tries to directly or indirectly censor, persecute or otherwise oppress the other party, rather than engage with and constructively respond to or accommodate the other party's arguments or viewpoint...
. - The war abroad could cause the population to simply be distracted from the issues that induced the original dissatisfaction with the government.
- The external threat may unify the country through the Rally Round the Flag Syndrome effect by creating a new out-group other than the government for the population to direct its dissatisfaction.
Negative
However, all of these benefits depend on success in the diversionary war that the government facing domestic strife incites. Failure in these international actions would backfire against the leader's initial intent. As a result, the leader would likely face more domestic strife, possibly hastening his or her loss of power
Nevertheless, this possible negative effect is addressed in the Diversionary War Theory. The theory itself states that rational leaders facing a near inevitable removal from office become more likely to gamble on a risky diversionary war. If the existing dissatisfaction is prompting their removal from office, a diversionary foreign policy only leaves room for gain
Evolution
Although the theory was not officially addressed in academiaAcademia
Academia is the community of students and scholars engaged in higher education and research.-Etymology:The word comes from the akademeia in ancient Greece. Outside the city walls of Athens, the gymnasium was made famous by Plato as a center of learning...
until the past half-century, the benefits of a diversionary foreign policy had long been accepted by governments and others as conventional wisdom
Conventional wisdom
Conventional wisdom is a term used to describe ideas or explanations that are generally accepted as true by the public or by experts in a field. Such ideas or explanations, though widely held, are unexamined. Unqualified societal discourse preserves the status quo. It codifies existing social...
.
In 1956, political scientists Simmel and Coser both published work applying the in-group/out-group psychology hypothesis towards International Relations. Essentially, their work postulated that populations of nations increase in their cohesion during times of conflict with an out-group (another nation, organization, etc.) .
This often includes rallying around the country's leader. As an example, President George W. Bush
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
's approval ratings soared to 80% following the attacks on September 11, 2001. This type of response suggests that leaders have an incentive to manufacture conflict whenever they are in the need of a boost of popularity.
From this assertion, scholars have used this conventional wisdom to expand and test the theory's true applications .
A significant number of studies have attempted to establish connections between the instigation of war as a way to divert attention from a struggling economy
Economy
An economy consists of the economic system of a country or other area; the labor, capital and land resources; and the manufacturing, trade, distribution, and consumption of goods and services of that area...
, or general low approval ratings .
In addition, the theory has diverged into contemporary and traditional perspectives.
Conditions that lead to Diversionary Foreign Policy
The purpose of diversionary foreign policy is to divert the attention of the public away from domestic issues. This means that the conditions leading to diversionary tactics include any sort of domestic unrest. This incorporates dissatisfaction with domestic policies and poor economic conditionsPoverty
Poverty is the lack of a certain amount of material possessions or money. Absolute poverty or destitution is inability to afford basic human needs, which commonly includes clean and fresh water, nutrition, health care, education, clothing and shelter. About 1.7 billion people are estimated to live...
. The theory predicts that the use of external force will increase the chance of reelection, so it would be used during a time when the president does not seem to have a good chance of reelection. The necessary conditions of the opposing state differ based on which theory one ascribes to, traditional or contemporary. The traditional view of diversionary foreign policy suggests that a state will target another in which conflict is likely to be prolonged, which would be against states with comparable military
Military
A military is an organization authorized by its greater society to use lethal force, usually including use of weapons, in defending its country by combating actual or perceived threats. The military may have additional functions of use to its greater society, such as advancing a political agenda e.g...
capabilities. According to this point of view, the prospect of victory is not the most important aspect in choosing an enemy because it is based on a sociological "in-group/out-group" perspective. This refers to the increase of cohesion among the "in-group" because of the common enemy or "out-group." On the other hand, contemporary diversionary theory states that, due to the uncertainty of international relations and the high cost of war, a state is more likely to prey on a weaker state where victory will be more quickly and easily obtained
Overall, diversionary foreign policy is more likely in a major power
Great power
A great power is a nation or state that has the ability to exert its influence on a global scale. Great powers characteristically possess military and economic strength and diplomatic and cultural influence which may cause small powers to consider the opinions of great powers before taking actions...
because they are less constrained by the international community
International community
The international community is a term used in international relations to refer to all peoples, cultures and governments of the world or to a group of them. The term is used to imply the existence of common duties and obligations between them...
. It is also seen more in democracies where the government needs to be more responsive to public sentiment
Election cycles have a lot to do with diversionary wars because a war ideally increases the chance that the incumbent
Incumbent
The incumbent, in politics, is the existing holder of a political office. This term is usually used in reference to elections, in which races can often be defined as being between an incumbent and non-incumbent. For example, in the 2004 United States presidential election, George W...
administration will remain
Pre World War II
Russo-Japanese War: One historical example that demonstrates the conventional acceptance of the effectiveness of a diversionary war is the Russo-Japanese WarRusso-Japanese War
The Russo-Japanese War was "the first great war of the 20th century." It grew out of rival imperial ambitions of the Russian Empire and Japanese Empire over Manchuria and Korea...
of 1904. During the months leading up war, Russia
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
experienced numerous workers strikes
Strike action
Strike action, also called labour strike, on strike, greve , or simply strike, is a work stoppage caused by the mass refusal of employees to work. A strike usually takes place in response to employee grievances. Strikes became important during the industrial revolution, when mass labour became...
that lead to internal unsettledness These strikes coincided with the Russian's negotiations with the Japanese over expansion in Manchuria and Korea. As a way to distract their population, the Russian Tzar and his ministers decided to goad the Japanese into declaring war, thereby turning Japan
Japan
Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...
into the needed out-group . In fact, Russia's Minister of the Interior, Vyacheslav von Phleve, stated before starting the war :
“What this country needs is a short victorious war to stem the tide of revolution”
Clearly, the Russians believed that by a diversionary war, they would be able to distract their population from the domestic troubles that had been haunting Russia.
However, the Russo-Japanese War is also in example of how a diversionary war can backfire. Japan soundly defeated Russia in battle. This only aggravated the calls for replacing the Tzar, loosened the Tzar's grip on power, and some say hastened the path toward the Russian Revolution of 1905 and eventually 1916 .
The French Revolutionary Wars of 1792: In 1792, the French Government comprised a newly formed National Assembly
National Assembly (French Revolution)
During the French Revolution, the National Assembly , which existed from June 17 to July 9, 1789, was a transitional body between the Estates-General and the National Constituent Assembly.-Background:...
, which had replaced King Louis XVI. In order to unify its citizens under the new flag and new leadership, the National Assembly began the French Revolutionary Wars
French Revolutionary Wars
The French Revolutionary Wars were a series of major conflicts, from 1792 until 1802, fought between the French Revolutionary government and several European states...
. It first declared war on Austria
Austria
Austria , officially the Republic of Austria , is a landlocked country of roughly 8.4 million people in Central Europe. It is bordered by the Czech Republic and Germany to the north, Slovakia and Hungary to the east, Slovenia and Italy to the south, and Switzerland and Liechtenstein to the...
, soon to be joined by Prussia
Prussia
Prussia was a German kingdom and historic state originating out of the Duchy of Prussia and the Margraviate of Brandenburg. For centuries, the House of Hohenzollern ruled Prussia, successfully expanding its size by way of an unusually well-organized and effective army. Prussia shaped the history...
(
The Franco-Prussian War: Otto von Bismark utilized diversionary foreign policy often during his quest to unify Germany. These wars distracted the German people from the cultural difference that previously had prevented them from forming a single country. Bismark used the success of the Franco-Prussian War
Franco-Prussian War
The Franco-Prussian War or Franco-German War, often referred to in France as the 1870 War was a conflict between the Second French Empire and the Kingdom of Prussia. Prussia was aided by the North German Confederation, of which it was a member, and the South German states of Baden, Württemberg and...
in a similar fashion, officially establishing a German Empire following the siege of Paris .
Post World War II
Many contemporary examples involve the U.S. because they fit the mold of conditions, a democratic superpower. The examples follow a similar model in which the U.S. must decide whether or not to intervene in an international conflict. Because the U.S. is in a good position to win most military conflicts, it will most likely increase the current administration's chance of reelection if they engage in military conflictVietnam War (1963–1969): During a period of major social movements and widespread domestic issues within the country, the United States intervened in the conflict between North and South Vietnam
Vietnam War
The Vietnam War was a Cold War-era military conflict that occurred in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia from 1 November 1955 to the fall of Saigon on 30 April 1975. This war followed the First Indochina War and was fought between North Vietnam, supported by its communist allies, and the government of...
under the policy of containment
Containment
Containment was a United States policy using military, economic, and diplomatic strategies to stall the spread of communism, enhance America’s security and influence abroad, and prevent a "domino effect". A component of the Cold War, this policy was a response to a series of moves by the Soviet...
. This failed to unite the country. In fact, many did not see the justification in going to war and started a large anti-war movement, yet Lyndon B. Johnson
Lyndon B. Johnson
Lyndon Baines Johnson , often referred to as LBJ, was the 36th President of the United States after his service as the 37th Vice President of the United States...
was reelected while the war was taking place.
Gulf War (2 August 1990-28 February 1991) After Iraq invaded Kuwait, the United States deployed troops to the area and were then backed by the U.N. in "Operation Desert Storm." The conflict was quickly resolved and George Bush
George H. W. Bush
George Herbert Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 41st President of the United States . He had previously served as the 43rd Vice President of the United States , a congressman, an ambassador, and Director of Central Intelligence.Bush was born in Milton, Massachusetts, to...
's approval ratings soared, although, this did not lead to his reelection.
Iraq War (March 20, 2003–present) After the attacks on September 11, the U.S. public was devastated and afraid. The economy was also not doing well. Iraq's alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) was considered an immediate threat to the United States. The occupation of Iraq was considered successful and the ongoing conflict led to George W. Bush
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
's reelection. As the war continued and the economy worsened, Bush's approval ratings dropped.
Impact on International Relation Approaches
Challenges to Realism and LiberalismThe focus of the Diversionary War theory on individual state actors and their domestic situations as causes for war challenges the basis of major approaches to International Relations. Many of these International Relation theories used by scholars, such as liberalism
Liberalism
Liberalism is the belief in the importance of liberty and equal rights. Liberals espouse a wide array of views depending on their understanding of these principles, but generally, liberals support ideas such as constitutionalism, liberal democracy, free and fair elections, human rights,...
and realism, focus on states as the main actors in the international system. Technically, this is referred to as using the interstate level of analysis. These scholars attribute the motives and actions of states to the states themselves, instead of the decision makers inside their governments .
On the other hand, the use of diversionary foreign policy suggests that factors inside of a state, such as domestic disputes and economic lows, have as much of an impact on foreign policy
Foreign policy
A country's foreign policy, also called the foreign relations policy, consists of self-interest strategies chosen by the state to safeguard its national interests and to achieve its goals within international relations milieu. The approaches are strategically employed to interact with other countries...
as national interests. As a result, examinations of the use of diversionary wars shift the study of International Relations away from the interstate level of analysis, toward the domestic level of analysis, and even the individual level of analysis In fact, many critics of realism use examples of the use of diversionary wars as a means to discredit the theory
Criticisms and Problems with the Theory
As with most theories there are disagreements among experts regarding diversionary wars. Diversionary foreign policy is supported by anecdotal evidence because it is hard to prove a theory in international relations quantitatively. When quantitative or empirical tests are attempted, the results are fairly ambiguous and there is not enough consistency among various findings to establish a definitive conclusionThis creates a discrepancy between the theoretical and historical text and the empirical evidence . Therefore, a good amount of criticism arises.
To begin with, there is an opposing theory that argues a state leader has the most leverage when citizens are content with domestic policy and he has high public approval ratings. It is then assumed that leaders are most likely to engage in international conflicts when the domestic approval is highest . Furthermore, some analysts argue that the entire basis for the argument, the idea that a foreign enemy brings a country together, is not as well founded as it originally seems. This idea relies heavily on sociological studies that focus on the cohesion of small groups. Problems arise when theorists try to apply this to a large group such as a nation state, which is composed of many smaller groups. In fact, there are examples of external conflict leading to more unrest between domestic groups. For example, WWI led to internal problems in Russia, eventually culminating in the Bolshevik Revolution
Some also argue that a government cannot just incite an international conflict whenever they wish. Although there are always conflicts going on among the international community, not all are compelling enough to justify the use of force to the public and the government may even be accused of overreacting to a situation .