Warren Mitofsky
Encyclopedia
Warren Mitofsky was an American political pollster.
Mitofsky graduated in 1957 from Guilford College
and was executive director of the CBS News
election and survey unit from 1967 to 1990. He also previously served as an executive producer of CBS election night broadcasts.
Prior to CBS, Mitofsky worked with the Census Bureau
where he designed a number of surveys. Along with Joseph Waksberg, Mitofsky is credited with developing an efficient method of sampling telephone numbers using random digit dialing
, which has since been widely adopted as a sampling method. In 1999, the American Association for Public Opinion Research
presented him with its lifetime achievement award for his "continuing concern for survey quality".
Mitofsky is credited with having invented the exit poll
.
In November 2004, Mitofsky was interviewed by PBS
NewsHour
regarding what went wrong with the accuracy of his exit polls for the 2004 U.S. presidential election
. Early poll results were leaked which showed John Kerry
leading George W. Bush
, conflicting with the final official outcome. Mitofsky said he suspected that the difference arose because "the Kerry voters were more anxious to participate in our exit polls than the Bush voters." He refused, consistently, to release precinct-level polling data from Ohio to researchers who maintained that the election results were fraudulent, and his own exit polls were a more accurate picture of the vote.
He died on September 1, 2006 in New York City
of an aortic aneurysm
, aged 71.
s for major election
s around the world. It does this work exclusively for news organizations. Mitofsky has directed exit polls and quick counts since 1967 for almost 3,000 electoral contests. He has the distinction of conducting the first national presidential exit polls in the United States
, Russia
, Mexico
and the Philippines
.
Along with CESSI, Ltd., Mitofsky International were the only exit polls for the Russian presidential elections in 1996 and 2000 as well as all other Russian elections since 1993. It was the only provider of exit polling and quick counts reported by the Mexican broadcast industry for its 1994 presidential election.
Mitofsky graduated in 1957 from Guilford College
Guilford College
Guilford College, founded in 1837 by members of the Religious Society of Friends , is an independent college whose stated mission is to: provide a transformative, practical and excellent liberal arts education that produces critical thinkers in an inclusive, diverse environment, guided by Quaker...
and was executive director of the CBS News
CBS News
CBS News is the news division of American television and radio network CBS. The current chairman is Jeff Fager who is also the executive producer of 60 Minutes, while the current president of CBS News is David Rhodes. CBS News' flagship program is the CBS Evening News, hosted by the network's main...
election and survey unit from 1967 to 1990. He also previously served as an executive producer of CBS election night broadcasts.
Prior to CBS, Mitofsky worked with the Census Bureau
United States Census Bureau
The United States Census Bureau is the government agency that is responsible for the United States Census. It also gathers other national demographic and economic data...
where he designed a number of surveys. Along with Joseph Waksberg, Mitofsky is credited with developing an efficient method of sampling telephone numbers using random digit dialing
Random digit dialing
Random digit dialing is a method for selecting people for involvement in telephone statistical surveys by generating telephone numbers at random. Random digit dialing has the advantage that it includes unlisted numbers that would be missed if the numbers were selected from a phone book...
, which has since been widely adopted as a sampling method. In 1999, the American Association for Public Opinion Research
American Association for Public Opinion Research
The American Association for Public Opinion Research , founded in 1947, is an organization of approximately 1900 survey research professionals from academia, non-profit organizations, polling firms, and government...
presented him with its lifetime achievement award for his "continuing concern for survey quality".
Mitofsky is credited with having invented the exit poll
Exit poll
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks whom the voter plans to vote for or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks whom the voter actually voted for. A similar poll conducted before actual...
.
In November 2004, Mitofsky was interviewed by PBS
Public Broadcasting Service
The Public Broadcasting Service is an American non-profit public broadcasting television network with 354 member TV stations in the United States which hold collective ownership. Its headquarters is in Arlington, Virginia....
NewsHour
The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer
PBS NewsHour is an evening television news program broadcast weeknights on the Public Broadcasting Service in the United States. The show is produced by MacNeil/Lehrer Productions, a company co-owned by former anchors Jim Lehrer and Robert MacNeil, and Liberty Media, which owns a 65% stake in the...
regarding what went wrong with the accuracy of his exit polls for the 2004 U.S. presidential election
United States presidential election, 2004
The United States presidential election of 2004 was the United States' 55th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2004. Republican Party candidate and incumbent President George W. Bush defeated Democratic Party candidate John Kerry, the then-junior U.S. Senator...
. Early poll results were leaked which showed John Kerry
John Kerry
John Forbes Kerry is the senior United States Senator from Massachusetts, the 10th most senior U.S. Senator and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2004 presidential election, but lost to former President George W...
leading George W. Bush
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
, conflicting with the final official outcome. Mitofsky said he suspected that the difference arose because "the Kerry voters were more anxious to participate in our exit polls than the Bush voters." He refused, consistently, to release precinct-level polling data from Ohio to researchers who maintained that the election results were fraudulent, and his own exit polls were a more accurate picture of the vote.
He died on September 1, 2006 in New York City
New York City
New York is the most populous city in the United States and the center of the New York Metropolitan Area, one of the most populous metropolitan areas in the world. New York exerts a significant impact upon global commerce, finance, media, art, fashion, research, technology, education, and...
of an aortic aneurysm
Aortic aneurysm
An aortic aneurysm is a general term for any swelling of the aorta to greater than 1.5 times normal, usually representing an underlying weakness in the wall of the aorta at that location...
, aged 71.
Mitofsky International
In 1993 Mitofsky founded Mitofsky International, a survey research company. Its primary business is conducting exit pollExit poll
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks whom the voter plans to vote for or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks whom the voter actually voted for. A similar poll conducted before actual...
s for major election
Election
An election is a formal decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy operates since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the...
s around the world. It does this work exclusively for news organizations. Mitofsky has directed exit polls and quick counts since 1967 for almost 3,000 electoral contests. He has the distinction of conducting the first national presidential exit polls in the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
, Russia
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
, Mexico
Mexico
The United Mexican States , commonly known as Mexico , is a federal constitutional republic in North America. It is bordered on the north by the United States; on the south and west by the Pacific Ocean; on the southeast by Guatemala, Belize, and the Caribbean Sea; and on the east by the Gulf of...
and the Philippines
Philippines
The Philippines , officially known as the Republic of the Philippines , is a country in Southeast Asia in the western Pacific Ocean. To its north across the Luzon Strait lies Taiwan. West across the South China Sea sits Vietnam...
.
Along with CESSI, Ltd., Mitofsky International were the only exit polls for the Russian presidential elections in 1996 and 2000 as well as all other Russian elections since 1993. It was the only provider of exit polling and quick counts reported by the Mexican broadcast industry for its 1994 presidential election.
External links
- Mitofsky International
- "WHAT WENT WRONG?" (with 2004 polling), PBS Newshour, November 5, 2004
- "Mitofsky,'father of exit polling', dies at 72" [sic], CNN, September 3, 2006
- Mitofsky Remembered As Exit Poll Pioneer, by Mike Mokrzycki, Associated Press, September 4, 2006