Nikolai Kondratiev
Encyclopedia
Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratiev (in some sources also referred as Kondratieff), Russian
: Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев (4 March 1892 - 17 September 1938), was a Russian economist
, who was a proponent of the New Economic Policy
(NEP) in the Soviet Union
.
He proposed a theory that Western capitalist
economies have long term (50 to 60 years) cycles of boom
followed by depression
. These business cycle
s are now called "Kondratiev wave
s".
, north of Moscow, into a peasant
family. He was tutored at the University of St. Petersburg before the revolution by Mikhail Tugan-Baranovsky
. A member of the Socialist-Revolutionary Party
, his initial professional work was in the area of agricultural economics
and statistics
and the problem of food supplies. On 5 October 1917, at the age of 25, he was appointed Minister of Supply of the last Alexander Kerensky
government, which lasted for only a few days.
After the revolution
, he dedicated his attention to academic research. In 1919, he was appointed to a teaching post at the Agricultural Academy of Peter the Great, and in October 1920 he founded the Institute of Conjuncture
, in Moscow
. As its first director, he developed the institute, from just a couple of scientists, into a large and respected institution with 51 researchers by 1923.
In 1923, Kondratiev intervened in the debate about the "Scissors Crisis
", following the general opinion of his colleagues. In 1923-5, he worked on a five-year plan for the development of Soviet agriculture. In 1924, after publishing his first book, presenting the first tentative version of his theory of major cycles, Kondratiev travelled to England
, Germany
, Canada
and the United States
, and visited several universities before returning to Russia
.
A proponent of the Soviet New Economic Policy
(NEP), Kondratiev favored the strategic option for the primacy of agriculture and the industrial production of consumer goods, over the development of heavy industry. Kondratiev's influence on economic policy lasted until 1925, declined in 1926 and ended by 1927. Around this time, the NEP was dissolved by a political shift in the leadership of the Communist Party
.
Kondratiev was removed from the directorship of the Institute of Conjuncture in 1928 and arrested in July 1930, accused of being a member of a "Peasants Labour Party" (allegedly a non-existent party invented by the NKVD
). Convicted as a "kulak
-professor" and sentenced to 8 years in prison, Kondratiev served his sentence, from February 1932 onwards, at Suzdal
, near Moscow. Although his health deteriorated under poor conditions, Kondratiev continued his research and decided to prepare five new books, as he mentioned in a letter to his wife. Some of these texts were indeed completed and were published.
His last letter was sent to his daughter, Elena Kondratieva, on 31 August 1938. Shortly afterwards, on 17 September during the Great Purge
, he was subjected to a second trial, condemned to ten years without the right to correspond with the outside world. However, Kondratiev was executed by firing squad on the same day the sentence was issued. Kondratiev was 46 at the time of his execution. He was rehabilitated almost fifty years later, on 16 July 1987. His collected works were first translated into English by Stephen S. Wilson in 1998 (see Bibliography).
In 1992, to commemorate the centenary of his birth, the International N. D. Kondratiev Foundation
was established.
Russian language
Russian is a Slavic language used primarily in Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It is an unofficial but widely spoken language in Ukraine, Moldova, Latvia, Turkmenistan and Estonia and, to a lesser extent, the other countries that were once constituent republics...
: Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев (4 March 1892 - 17 September 1938), was a Russian economist
Economist
An economist is a professional in the social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy...
, who was a proponent of the New Economic Policy
New Economic Policy
The New Economic Policy was an economic policy proposed by Vladimir Lenin, who called it state capitalism. Allowing some private ventures, the NEP allowed small animal businesses or smoke shops, for instance, to reopen for private profit while the state continued to control banks, foreign trade,...
(NEP) in the Soviet Union
Soviet Union
The Soviet Union , officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics , was a constitutionally socialist state that existed in Eurasia between 1922 and 1991....
.
He proposed a theory that Western capitalist
Capitalism
Capitalism is an economic system that became dominant in the Western world following the demise of feudalism. There is no consensus on the precise definition nor on how the term should be used as a historical category...
economies have long term (50 to 60 years) cycles of boom
Boom and bust
A credit boom-bust cycle is an episode characterized by a sustained increase in several economics indicators followed by a sharp and rapid contraction. Commonly the boom is driven by a rapid expansion of credit to the private sector accompanied with rising prices of commodities and stock market index...
followed by depression
Depression (economics)
In economics, a depression is a sustained, long-term downturn in economic activity in one or more economies. It is a more severe downturn than a recession, which is seen by some economists as part of the modern business cycle....
. These business cycle
Business cycle
The term business cycle refers to economy-wide fluctuations in production or economic activity over several months or years...
s are now called "Kondratiev wave
Kondratiev wave
Kondratiev waves are described as sinusoidal-like cycles in the modern capitalist world economy...
s".
Life and times
Nikolai Dimitrievich Kondratiev was born on 4 March 1892 in the province of KostromaKostroma
Kostroma is a historic city and the administrative center of Kostroma Oblast, Russia. A part of the Golden Ring of Russian towns, it is located at the confluence of the Volga and Kostroma Rivers...
, north of Moscow, into a peasant
Peasant
A peasant is an agricultural worker who generally tend to be poor and homeless-Etymology:The word is derived from 15th century French païsant meaning one from the pays, or countryside, ultimately from the Latin pagus, or outlying administrative district.- Position in society :Peasants typically...
family. He was tutored at the University of St. Petersburg before the revolution by Mikhail Tugan-Baranovsky
Mikhail Tugan-Baranovsky
Mikhail Ivanovich Tugan-Baranovsky or Myhaylo Tuhan-Baranovsky was the Ukrainian politician, statesman, and a noted Russian-Ukrainian economist, a tutor of Nikolai Kondratiev...
. A member of the Socialist-Revolutionary Party
Socialist-Revolutionary Party
thumb|right|200px|Socialist-Revolutionary election poster, 1917. The caption in red reads "партия соц-рев" , short for Party of the Socialist Revolutionaries...
, his initial professional work was in the area of agricultural economics
Agricultural economics
Agricultural economics originally applied the principles of economics to the production of crops and livestock — a discipline known as agronomics. Agronomics was a branch of economics that specifically dealt with land usage. It focused on maximizing the crop yield while maintaining a good soil...
and statistics
Statistics
Statistics is the study of the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of data. It deals with all aspects of this, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments....
and the problem of food supplies. On 5 October 1917, at the age of 25, he was appointed Minister of Supply of the last Alexander Kerensky
Alexander Kerensky
Alexander Fyodorovich Kerensky was a major political leader before and during the Russian Revolutions of 1917.Kerensky served as the second Prime Minister of the Russian Provisional Government until Vladimir Lenin was elected by the All-Russian Congress of Soviets following the October Revolution...
government, which lasted for only a few days.
After the revolution
Revolution
A revolution is a fundamental change in power or organizational structures that takes place in a relatively short period of time.Aristotle described two types of political revolution:...
, he dedicated his attention to academic research. In 1919, he was appointed to a teaching post at the Agricultural Academy of Peter the Great, and in October 1920 he founded the Institute of Conjuncture
Institute of Conjuncture
The Institute of Conjuncture was founded in Moscow in October 1920 by Nikolai Kondratiev as a center for the study of business cycles. As its first director, Kondratiev managed to develop the institute, from just a couple of scientists at its beginning, into a large and respected institution with...
, in Moscow
Moscow
Moscow is the capital, the most populous city, and the most populous federal subject of Russia. The city is a major political, economic, cultural, scientific, religious, financial, educational, and transportation centre of Russia and the continent...
. As its first director, he developed the institute, from just a couple of scientists, into a large and respected institution with 51 researchers by 1923.
In 1923, Kondratiev intervened in the debate about the "Scissors Crisis
Scissors Crisis
The Scissors Crisis is the name for an incident in early Soviet history during the New Economic Policy , when there was a widening gap between industrial and agricultural prices...
", following the general opinion of his colleagues. In 1923-5, he worked on a five-year plan for the development of Soviet agriculture. In 1924, after publishing his first book, presenting the first tentative version of his theory of major cycles, Kondratiev travelled to England
England
England is a country that is part of the United Kingdom. It shares land borders with Scotland to the north and Wales to the west; the Irish Sea is to the north west, the Celtic Sea to the south west, with the North Sea to the east and the English Channel to the south separating it from continental...
, Germany
Germany
Germany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...
, Canada
Canada
Canada is a North American country consisting of ten provinces and three territories. Located in the northern part of the continent, it extends from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in the west, and northward into the Arctic Ocean...
and the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
, and visited several universities before returning to Russia
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
.
A proponent of the Soviet New Economic Policy
New Economic Policy
The New Economic Policy was an economic policy proposed by Vladimir Lenin, who called it state capitalism. Allowing some private ventures, the NEP allowed small animal businesses or smoke shops, for instance, to reopen for private profit while the state continued to control banks, foreign trade,...
(NEP), Kondratiev favored the strategic option for the primacy of agriculture and the industrial production of consumer goods, over the development of heavy industry. Kondratiev's influence on economic policy lasted until 1925, declined in 1926 and ended by 1927. Around this time, the NEP was dissolved by a political shift in the leadership of the Communist Party
Communist party
A political party described as a Communist party includes those that advocate the application of the social principles of communism through a communist form of government...
.
Kondratiev was removed from the directorship of the Institute of Conjuncture in 1928 and arrested in July 1930, accused of being a member of a "Peasants Labour Party" (allegedly a non-existent party invented by the NKVD
NKVD
The People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs was the public and secret police organization of the Soviet Union that directly executed the rule of power of the Soviets, including political repression, during the era of Joseph Stalin....
). Convicted as a "kulak
Kulak
Kulaks were a category of relatively affluent peasants in the later Russian Empire, Soviet Russia, and early Soviet Union...
-professor" and sentenced to 8 years in prison, Kondratiev served his sentence, from February 1932 onwards, at Suzdal
Suzdal
Suzdal is a town in Vladimir Oblast, Russia, situated northeast of Moscow, from the city of Vladimir, on the Kamenka River. Population: -History:...
, near Moscow. Although his health deteriorated under poor conditions, Kondratiev continued his research and decided to prepare five new books, as he mentioned in a letter to his wife. Some of these texts were indeed completed and were published.
His last letter was sent to his daughter, Elena Kondratieva, on 31 August 1938. Shortly afterwards, on 17 September during the Great Purge
Great Purge
The Great Purge was a series of campaigns of political repression and persecution in the Soviet Union orchestrated by Joseph Stalin from 1936 to 1938...
, he was subjected to a second trial, condemned to ten years without the right to correspond with the outside world. However, Kondratiev was executed by firing squad on the same day the sentence was issued. Kondratiev was 46 at the time of his execution. He was rehabilitated almost fifty years later, on 16 July 1987. His collected works were first translated into English by Stephen S. Wilson in 1998 (see Bibliography).
In 1992, to commemorate the centenary of his birth, the International N. D. Kondratiev Foundation
International N. D. Kondratiev Foundation
The International N. D. Kondratiev Foundation is an economic research organization founded in 1992 at an international conference devoted to the centenary of the birth of Nikolai Kondratiev. The foundation is accredited by the Department of Social Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences...
was established.
Major works
book, paper- 1922 -The World Economy and its Conjunctures During and After the War
- 1923 -Some Controversial Questions Concerning the World Economy and Crisis (Answer to Our Critiques)
- 1924 -On the Notion of Economic Statics, Dynamics and Fluctuations
- 1925 -The Major Economic Cycles
- 1926a -About the Question of the Major Cycles of the Conjuncture
- 1926b -Problems of Forecasting
- 1928a -The Major Cycles of the Conjuncture
- 1928b -Dynamics of Industrial and Agricultural Prices (Contribution to the Theory of Relative Dynamics and Conjuncture)
- 1934 -Main Problems of Economic Statics and Dynamics
See also
- Kondratiev waveKondratiev waveKondratiev waves are described as sinusoidal-like cycles in the modern capitalist world economy...
- World-systems approach
- Eugen SlutskyEugen SlutskyEvgeny "Eugen" Evgenievich Slutsky was a Russian/Soviet mathematical statistician, economist and political economist.-Slutsky's work in economics:...
- Information Revolution
Further reading
- V. L. Barnett, W. Samuels, N. Makashava, editors, Translated by Stephen S. Wilson Collected Works of Nikolai Kondratiev (London: Pickering and Catto, 1998) 1500 pp. ISBN 1-85196-260-3
- V. L. Barnett, Kondratiev and the Dynamics of Economic Development: Long Cycles and Industrial Growth in Historical Context (London: Macmillan Publishing, 1998) 251 pp. ISBN 0-333-65550-8
External links
- Kondratiev wave website - by Gunter Krumme, University of Washington
- "The Kondratieff Cycle: Real or Fabricated?" - by Murray RothbardMurray RothbardMurray Newton Rothbard was an American author and economist of the Austrian School who helped define capitalist libertarianism and popularized a form of free-market anarchism he termed "anarcho-capitalism." Rothbard wrote over twenty books and is considered a centrally important figure in the...
, Ludwig von Mises InstituteLudwig von Mises InstituteThe Ludwig von Mises Institute , based in Auburn, Alabama, is a libertarian academic organization engaged in research and scholarship in the fields of economics, philosophy and political economy. Its scholarship is inspired by the work of Austrian School economist Ludwig von Mises...
, 1984. - Revista Entelequia
- Kyle Crichton, "From Lenin's seer: I warned you"