GoldSim
Encyclopedia
GoldSim is dynamic, probabilistic simulation software
developed by GoldSim Technology Group.
This general-purpose simulator is a hybrid of several simulation approaches, combining an extension of system dynamics
with some aspects of discrete event simulation
, and embedding the dynamic simulation engine within a Monte Carlo simulation framework.
While it is a general-purpose simulator, GoldSim has been most extensively used for high-profile environmental and engineering risk analysis
, with applications in the areas of water resource management
,
mining
,
radioactive waste
management
,
and most recently, geological carbon sequestration
and aerospace
mission risk analysis
.
, an international engineering consulting firm, was asked by the United States Department of Energy
(DOE) to develop probabilistic simulation software that could be used to help with decision support and management within the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management. The results of this effort were two DOS
-based programs (RIP and STRIP), which were used to support radioactive waste management projects within the DOE.
In 1996, in an effort funded by Golder Associates, the US DOE, the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (currently the Japan Atomic Energy Agency
) and the Spanish National Radioactive Waste Company (ENRESA), the capabilities of RIP and STRIP were incorporated into a general purpose Windows
-based simulator called GoldSim. Subsequent funding was also provided by NASA
.
Initially only offered to the original funding organizations, GoldSim was released to the public in 2002. In 2004, GoldSim Technology Group LLC was spun off from Golder Associates and is now a wholly independent company.
Recent notable applications include providing the simulation framework for: 1) the Yucca Mountain Repository Performance Assessment model developed by Sandia National Laboratories
; 2) a long-term water management model of California’s Central Valley, developed by the California Department of Water Resources
(DWR) and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; 3) a comprehensive system-level computational model for performance assessment of geological sequestration of CO2
developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory
; and 4) models for simulating risks associated with future manned space missions in NASA’s Constellation program developed by NASA Ames Research Center
.
Though it is primarily a continuous simulator, GoldSim has a number of features typically associated with discrete simulators
. By combining these two simulation methods, systems that are best represented using both continuous and discrete dynamics can often be more accurately simulated. Examples include tracking the quantity of water in a reservoir that is subject to both continuous inflows and outflows, as well as sudden storm events; and tracking the quantity of fuel in a space vehicle as it is subjected to random perturbations (e.g., component failures, extreme environmental conditions).
Because the software was originally developed for complex environmental applications, in which many inputs are uncertain
and/or stochastic
, in addition to being a dynamic simulator, GoldSim is a Monte Carlo
simulator, such that inputs can be defined as distributions and the entire system simulated a large number of times to provide probabilistic outputs
. As such, the software incorporates a number of computational features to facilitate probabilistic simulation of complex systems, including tools for generating and correlating stochastic time series
, advanced sampling capabilities (including latin hypercube sampling
and importance sampling
), and support for distributed processing.
Simulation software
Simulation software is based on the process of modeling a real phenomenon with a set of mathematical formulas. It is, essentially, a program that allows the user to observe an operation through simulation without actually performing that operation...
developed by GoldSim Technology Group.
This general-purpose simulator is a hybrid of several simulation approaches, combining an extension of system dynamics
System dynamics
System dynamics is an approach to understanding the behaviour of complex systems over time. It deals with internal feedback loops and time delays that affect the behaviour of the entire system. What makes using system dynamics different from other approaches to studying complex systems is the use...
with some aspects of discrete event simulation
Discrete Event Simulation
In discrete-event simulation, the operation of a system is represented as a chronological sequence of events. Each event occurs at an instant in time and marks a change of state in the system...
, and embedding the dynamic simulation engine within a Monte Carlo simulation framework.
While it is a general-purpose simulator, GoldSim has been most extensively used for high-profile environmental and engineering risk analysis
Risk analysis (engineering)
Risk analysis is the science of risks and their probability and evaluation.Probabilistic risk assessment is one analysis strategy usually employed in science and engineering.-Risk analysis and the risk workshop:...
, with applications in the areas of water resource management
,
mining
Mining
Mining is the extraction of valuable minerals or other geological materials from the earth, from an ore body, vein or seam. The term also includes the removal of soil. Materials recovered by mining include base metals, precious metals, iron, uranium, coal, diamonds, limestone, oil shale, rock...
,
radioactive waste
Radioactive waste
Radioactive wastes are wastes that contain radioactive material. Radioactive wastes are usually by-products of nuclear power generation and other applications of nuclear fission or nuclear technology, such as research and medicine...
management
,
and most recently, geological carbon sequestration
Carbon capture and storage
Carbon capture and storage , alternatively referred to as carbon capture and sequestration, is a technology to prevent large quantities of from being released into the atmosphere from the use of fossil fuel in power generation and other industries. It is often regarded as a means of mitigating...
and aerospace
Aerospace
Aerospace comprises the atmosphere of Earth and surrounding space. Typically the term is used to refer to the industry that researches, designs, manufactures, operates, and maintains vehicles moving through air and space...
mission risk analysis
.
History
In 1990, Golder AssociatesGolder Associates
Golder Associates is an employee-owned, multi-disciplinary global group of companies specializing in ground engineering and environmental services. Its nearly 7,000 employees operate from more than 160 offices in over 30 countries in Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, North America and South America...
, an international engineering consulting firm, was asked by the United States Department of Energy
United States Department of Energy
The United States Department of Energy is a Cabinet-level department of the United States government concerned with the United States' policies regarding energy and safety in handling nuclear material...
(DOE) to develop probabilistic simulation software that could be used to help with decision support and management within the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management. The results of this effort were two DOS
MS-DOS
MS-DOS is an operating system for x86-based personal computers. It was the most commonly used member of the DOS family of operating systems, and was the main operating system for IBM PC compatible personal computers during the 1980s to the mid 1990s, until it was gradually superseded by operating...
-based programs (RIP and STRIP), which were used to support radioactive waste management projects within the DOE.
In 1996, in an effort funded by Golder Associates, the US DOE, the Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (currently the Japan Atomic Energy Agency
Japan Atomic Energy Agency
The was formed October 1, 2005 by a merger of two previous semi-governmental organizations. While it inherited the activities of both PNC and JAERI, it also inherited the nickname of JAERI, "Genken" 原研, an abbreviated word for "nuclear research"....
) and the Spanish National Radioactive Waste Company (ENRESA), the capabilities of RIP and STRIP were incorporated into a general purpose Windows
Microsoft Windows
Microsoft Windows is a series of operating systems produced by Microsoft.Microsoft introduced an operating environment named Windows on November 20, 1985 as an add-on to MS-DOS in response to the growing interest in graphical user interfaces . Microsoft Windows came to dominate the world's personal...
-based simulator called GoldSim. Subsequent funding was also provided by NASA
NASA
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is the agency of the United States government that is responsible for the nation's civilian space program and for aeronautics and aerospace research...
.
Initially only offered to the original funding organizations, GoldSim was released to the public in 2002. In 2004, GoldSim Technology Group LLC was spun off from Golder Associates and is now a wholly independent company.
Recent notable applications include providing the simulation framework for: 1) the Yucca Mountain Repository Performance Assessment model developed by Sandia National Laboratories
Sandia National Laboratories
The Sandia National Laboratories, managed and operated by the Sandia Corporation , are two major United States Department of Energy research and development national laboratories....
; 2) a long-term water management model of California’s Central Valley, developed by the California Department of Water Resources
California Department of Water Resources
The California Department of Water Resources , is a department within the California Natural Resources Agency. The Department of Water Resources is responsible for the State of California's management and regulation of water usage...
(DWR) and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation; 3) a comprehensive system-level computational model for performance assessment of geological sequestration of CO2
Carbon capture and storage
Carbon capture and storage , alternatively referred to as carbon capture and sequestration, is a technology to prevent large quantities of from being released into the atmosphere from the use of fossil fuel in power generation and other industries. It is often regarded as a means of mitigating...
developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Los Alamos National Laboratory is a United States Department of Energy national laboratory, managed and operated by Los Alamos National Security , located in Los Alamos, New Mexico...
; and 4) models for simulating risks associated with future manned space missions in NASA’s Constellation program developed by NASA Ames Research Center
NASA Ames Research Center
The Ames Research Center , is one of the United States of America's National Aeronautics and Space Administration 10 major field centers.The centre is located in Moffett Field in California's Silicon Valley, near the high-tech companies, entrepreneurial ventures, universities, and other...
.
Modeling Environment
GoldSim provides a visual and hierarchical modeling environment, which allows users to construct models by adding “elements” (model objects) that represent data, equations, processes or events, and linking them together into graphical representations that resemble influence diagrams. Influence arrows are automatically drawn as elements are referenced by other elements. Complex systems can be translated into hierarchical GoldSim models by creating layer of “containers” (or sub-models). Visual representations and hierarchical structures help users to build very large, complex models that can still be explained to interested stakeholders (e.g., government regulators, elected officials, and the public).Though it is primarily a continuous simulator, GoldSim has a number of features typically associated with discrete simulators
Discrete Event Simulation
In discrete-event simulation, the operation of a system is represented as a chronological sequence of events. Each event occurs at an instant in time and marks a change of state in the system...
. By combining these two simulation methods, systems that are best represented using both continuous and discrete dynamics can often be more accurately simulated. Examples include tracking the quantity of water in a reservoir that is subject to both continuous inflows and outflows, as well as sudden storm events; and tracking the quantity of fuel in a space vehicle as it is subjected to random perturbations (e.g., component failures, extreme environmental conditions).
Because the software was originally developed for complex environmental applications, in which many inputs are uncertain
Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a term used in subtly different ways in a number of fields, including physics, philosophy, statistics, economics, finance, insurance, psychology, sociology, engineering, and information science...
and/or stochastic
Stochastic
Stochastic refers to systems whose behaviour is intrinsically non-deterministic. A stochastic process is one whose behavior is non-deterministic, in that a system's subsequent state is determined both by the process's predictable actions and by a random element. However, according to M. Kac and E...
, in addition to being a dynamic simulator, GoldSim is a Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo method
Monte Carlo methods are a class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to compute their results. Monte Carlo methods are often used in computer simulations of physical and mathematical systems...
simulator, such that inputs can be defined as distributions and the entire system simulated a large number of times to provide probabilistic outputs
. As such, the software incorporates a number of computational features to facilitate probabilistic simulation of complex systems, including tools for generating and correlating stochastic time series
Time series
In statistics, signal processing, econometrics and mathematical finance, a time series is a sequence of data points, measured typically at successive times spaced at uniform time intervals. Examples of time series are the daily closing value of the Dow Jones index or the annual flow volume of the...
, advanced sampling capabilities (including latin hypercube sampling
Latin hypercube sampling
Latin hypercube sampling is a statistical method for generating a distribution of plausible collections of parameter values from a multidimensional distribution. The sampling method is often applied in uncertainty analysis....
and importance sampling
Importance sampling
In statistics, importance sampling is a general technique for estimating properties of a particular distribution, while only having samples generated from a different distribution rather than the distribution of interest. It is related to Umbrella sampling in computational physics...
), and support for distributed processing.
See also
- Computer SimulationComputer simulationA computer simulation, a computer model, or a computational model is a computer program, or network of computers, that attempts to simulate an abstract model of a particular system...
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- List of computer simulation software