Allan Lichtman
Encyclopedia
Allan Jay Lichtman is an American
political historian
who teaches at American University
in Washington, D.C.
He ran in the 2006 Maryland senate race
for the seat vacated by Paul Sarbanes
.
neighborhood of Brooklyn
in New York City
. He graduated from Stuyvesant High School. Lichtman received his B.A.
degree from Brandeis University
in History in 1967, and graduated Phi Beta Kappa and Magna Cum Laude while also running track and wrestling for the school. Lichtman received his Ph.D.
from Harvard University
as a Graduate Prize Fellow in 1973, also in history.
Outside of the classroom, Lichtman has testified as an expert witness on civil rights in more than 70 cases for the U.S. Department of Justice and for civil rights groups such as the NAACP, the Mexican-American Legal Defense and Education Fund and Puerto Rican Legal Defense and Education Fund, and the Southern Poverty Law Center
. He also consulted for Vice President Al Gore
and Senator Edward Kennedy
. He assisted the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights investigation into voting irregularities in Florida
during the 2000 election
, submitting an extensive report of his statistical analysis of balloting problems. Lichtman concluded "there were major racial disparities in ballot rejection rates".
. The system uses thirteen historical factors to predict whether or not the popular vote in the election for President of the United States
will be won by the candidate of the party holding the presidency (regardless of whether the President is the candidate). The keys were selected based on their correlations with the presidential election results from 1860 through 1980, using statistical methods adapted from the work of geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok
for predicting earthquakes. The system then correctly predicted the popular vote winner in each of the elections of 1984 through 2008, including 2000.
Lichtman has provided commentary for all networks and cable channels. He was the regular political analyst for CNN Headline News
. He is also a fifteen-year columnist for Maryland’s Journal and Gazette newspapers. He has lectured across the world and been cited hundreds of times by leading newspapers, including the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the Baltimore Sun.
from Maryland
. He ran as a progressive
, opposing the War in Iraq and calling for an immediate and safe withdrawal of U.S. troops.
Lichtman used innovative approaches to reach voters and supporters during the campaign including MySpace
and a web ad where he jumped in a lake. When he and other candidates were not invited by the League of Women Voters
to a debate, Lichtman went to the Maryland Public Television
studio and protested; he, his wife, and campaign volunteer Gail Dobson were arrested. On October 19, 2006, the three were found Not Guilty on all charges.
Lichtman lost in the primary to Ben Cardin
. According to the final tally, he received 6,919, or 1.2% of the vote, landing him in 6th place in a field of 18.
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
political historian
Political history
Political history is the narrative and analysis of political events, ideas, movements, and leaders. It is distinct from, but related to, other fields of history such as Diplomatic history, social history, economic history, and military history, as well as constitutional history and public...
who teaches at American University
American University
American University is a private, Methodist, liberal arts, and research university in Washington, D.C. The university was chartered by an Act of Congress on December 5, 1892 as "The American University", which was approved by President Benjamin Harrison on February 24, 1893...
in Washington, D.C.
Washington, D.C.
Washington, D.C., formally the District of Columbia and commonly referred to as Washington, "the District", or simply D.C., is the capital of the United States. On July 16, 1790, the United States Congress approved the creation of a permanent national capital as permitted by the U.S. Constitution....
He ran in the 2006 Maryland senate race
Maryland United States Senate election, 2006
The 2006 United States Senate election in Maryland was held on Tuesday, November 7, 2006. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Paul Sarbanes, Maryland's longest serving United States Senator, decided to retire instead of seeking a sixth term. Democratic nominee Ben Cardin won the open...
for the seat vacated by Paul Sarbanes
Paul Sarbanes
Paul Spyros Sarbanes , a Democrat, is a former United States Senator who represented the state of Maryland. Sarbanes was the longest-serving senator in Maryland history, having served from 1977 until 2007. He did not seek re-election in 2006, when he was succeeded by fellow Democrat Ben Cardin...
.
Early life, education, and family
Lichtman was born in the BrownsvilleBrownsville, Brooklyn
Brownsville is a residential neighborhood located in eastern Brooklyn, New York City.The total land area is one square mile, and the ZIP code for the neighborhood is 11212....
neighborhood of Brooklyn
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is the most populous of New York City's five boroughs, with nearly 2.6 million residents, and the second-largest in area. Since 1896, Brooklyn has had the same boundaries as Kings County, which is now the most populous county in New York State and the second-most densely populated...
in New York City
New York City
New York is the most populous city in the United States and the center of the New York Metropolitan Area, one of the most populous metropolitan areas in the world. New York exerts a significant impact upon global commerce, finance, media, art, fashion, research, technology, education, and...
. He graduated from Stuyvesant High School. Lichtman received his B.A.
Bachelor of Arts
A Bachelor of Arts , from the Latin artium baccalaureus, is a bachelor's degree awarded for an undergraduate course or program in either the liberal arts, the sciences, or both...
degree from Brandeis University
Brandeis University
Brandeis University is an American private research university with a liberal arts focus. It is located in the southwestern corner of Waltham, Massachusetts, nine miles west of Boston. The University has an enrollment of approximately 3,200 undergraduate and 2,100 graduate students. In 2011, it...
in History in 1967, and graduated Phi Beta Kappa and Magna Cum Laude while also running track and wrestling for the school. Lichtman received his Ph.D.
Doctor of Philosophy
Doctor of Philosophy, abbreviated as Ph.D., PhD, D.Phil., or DPhil , in English-speaking countries, is a postgraduate academic degree awarded by universities...
from Harvard University
Harvard University
Harvard University is a private Ivy League university located in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States, established in 1636 by the Massachusetts legislature. Harvard is the oldest institution of higher learning in the United States and the first corporation chartered in the country...
as a Graduate Prize Fellow in 1973, also in history.
Educational career
Lichtman began teaching at American University in 1973, rising to chair of the History Department, and was named Scholar/Professor of the Year in 1993.Outside of the classroom, Lichtman has testified as an expert witness on civil rights in more than 70 cases for the U.S. Department of Justice and for civil rights groups such as the NAACP, the Mexican-American Legal Defense and Education Fund and Puerto Rican Legal Defense and Education Fund, and the Southern Poverty Law Center
Southern Poverty Law Center
The Southern Poverty Law Center is an American nonprofit civil rights organization noted for its legal victories against white supremacist groups; legal representation for victims of hate groups; monitoring of alleged hate groups, militias and extremist organizations; and educational programs that...
. He also consulted for Vice President Al Gore
Al Gore
Albert Arnold "Al" Gore, Jr. served as the 45th Vice President of the United States , under President Bill Clinton. He was the Democratic Party's nominee for President in the 2000 U.S. presidential election....
and Senator Edward Kennedy
Ted Kennedy
Edward Moore "Ted" Kennedy was a United States Senator from Massachusetts and a member of the Democratic Party. Serving almost 47 years, he was the second most senior member of the Senate when he died and is the fourth-longest-serving senator in United States history...
. He assisted the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights investigation into voting irregularities in Florida
Florida
Florida is a state in the southeastern United States, located on the nation's Atlantic and Gulf coasts. It is bordered to the west by the Gulf of Mexico, to the north by Alabama and Georgia and to the east by the Atlantic Ocean. With a population of 18,801,310 as measured by the 2010 census, it...
during the 2000 election
United States presidential election, 2000
The United States presidential election of 2000 was a contest between Republican candidate George W. Bush, then-governor of Texas and son of former president George H. W. Bush , and Democratic candidate Al Gore, then-Vice President....
, submitting an extensive report of his statistical analysis of balloting problems. Lichtman concluded "there were major racial disparities in ballot rejection rates".
Awards and honors
Lichtman has received numerous awards at American University during his career. Most notably, he was named Outstanding Scholar/Teacher for 1992-93, the highest faculty award at that school. Other honors include:- Sherman Fairchild Distinguished Visiting Scholar, California Institute of Technology, 1980–81
- Top Speaker Award, National Convention of the International Platform Association, 1983, 1984, 1987
- Selected by the Teaching Company as one of America's "Super Star Teachers"
Author and commentator
Lichtman is the author or co-author of six books and more than 100 articles. He is best known for the "Keys" system, presented in his books The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency and The Keys to the White HouseThe Keys to the White House
The Keys to the White House is a 1996 book about a historically based prediction system for determining the next President of the United States. The system was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, an authority on the mathematics of prediction...
. The system uses thirteen historical factors to predict whether or not the popular vote in the election for President of the United States
President of the United States
The President of the United States of America is the head of state and head of government of the United States. The president leads the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces....
will be won by the candidate of the party holding the presidency (regardless of whether the President is the candidate). The keys were selected based on their correlations with the presidential election results from 1860 through 1980, using statistical methods adapted from the work of geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok
Vladimir Keilis-Borok
Vladimir Keilis-Borok was born in Moscow, Russia on July 31, 1921. He is a mathematical geophysicist.- Biography :In 1948, he received a Ph.D. in mathematical geophysics from the Academy of Sciences in Moscow. He was the founder, and is the Director Emeritus, of the International Institute of...
for predicting earthquakes. The system then correctly predicted the popular vote winner in each of the elections of 1984 through 2008, including 2000.
Lichtman has provided commentary for all networks and cable channels. He was the regular political analyst for CNN Headline News
CNN Headline News
HLN, formerly known as CNN Headline News and CNN2, is a cable television news channel based in the United States and a spinoff of the cable news television channel, CNN. Initially airing tightly-formatted 30-minute newscasts around the clock, since 2005, the channel has increasingly aired long-form...
. He is also a fifteen-year columnist for Maryland’s Journal and Gazette newspapers. He has lectured across the world and been cited hundreds of times by leading newspapers, including the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the Baltimore Sun.
2006 Maryland Senate race
On September 28, 2005, Lichtman formally announced his candidacy for the United States SenateUnited States Senate
The United States Senate is the upper house of the bicameral legislature of the United States, and together with the United States House of Representatives comprises the United States Congress. The composition and powers of the Senate are established in Article One of the U.S. Constitution. Each...
from Maryland
Maryland
Maryland is a U.S. state located in the Mid Atlantic region of the United States, bordering Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia to its south and west; Pennsylvania to its north; and Delaware to its east...
. He ran as a progressive
Progressivism
Progressivism is an umbrella term for a political ideology advocating or favoring social, political, and economic reform or changes. Progressivism is often viewed by some conservatives, constitutionalists, and libertarians to be in opposition to conservative or reactionary ideologies.The...
, opposing the War in Iraq and calling for an immediate and safe withdrawal of U.S. troops.
Lichtman used innovative approaches to reach voters and supporters during the campaign including MySpace
MySpace
Myspace is a social networking service owned by Specific Media LLC and pop star Justin Timberlake. Myspace launched in August 2003 and is headquartered in Beverly Hills, California. In August 2011, Myspace had 33.1 million unique U.S. visitors....
and a web ad where he jumped in a lake. When he and other candidates were not invited by the League of Women Voters
League of Women Voters
The League of Women Voters is an American political organization founded in 1920 by Carrie Chapman Catt during the last meeting of the National American Woman Suffrage Association approximately six months before the Nineteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution gave women the right to vote...
to a debate, Lichtman went to the Maryland Public Television
Maryland Public Television
Maryland Public Television is a non-profit, state-licensed Public Broadcasting Service non-commercial educational public television state network which serves U.S. state of Maryland. Its six transmitters cover nearly all of the state, plus Washington, D.C...
studio and protested; he, his wife, and campaign volunteer Gail Dobson were arrested. On October 19, 2006, the three were found Not Guilty on all charges.
Lichtman lost in the primary to Ben Cardin
Ben Cardin
Benjamin Louis "Ben" Cardin is the junior United States Senator from Maryland and a member of the Democratic Party. Before his election to the Senate, Cardin was a member of the United States House of Representatives, representing from 1987 to 2007.Cardin was elected to succeed Paul Sarbanes in...
. According to the final tally, he received 6,919, or 1.2% of the vote, landing him in 6th place in a field of 18.
Books
- Historians And The Living Past: The Theory And Practice Of Historical Study (Arlington Heights, Ill.: Harlan Davidson, Inc., 1978; With Valerie French)
- Ecological Inference (With Laura Irwin Langbein, Sage Series In Quantitative Applications In The Social Sciences, 1978)
- Your Family History: How To Use Oral History, Personal Family Archives, And Public Documents To Discover Your Heritage (New York: Random House, 1978)
- Prejudice And The Old Politics: The Presidential Election Of 1928 (Chapel Hill: University Of North Carolina Press, 1979; Lexington Books, 2000)
- Kin And Communities: Families In America (Edited, With Joan Challinor, Washington, D. C.: Smithsonian Press, 1979)
- The Thirteen Keys To The Presidency (Lanham: Madison Books, 1990, With Ken Decell) ISBN 978-0-8191-7008-8
- The Keys To The White House, 1996 Edition (Lanham: Madison Books, 1996; reprint, Lexington Books Edition, 2000) ISBN 978-0-7391-0179-7
- White Protestant Nation: The Rise Of The Modern American Right, Grove/Atlantic Press, in progress. ISBN 978-0-87113-984-9