World Football Elo Ratings - AbsoluteAstronomy.com

The World Football Elo Ratings is a ranking system for men's national teams in association football. The method used to rank teams is based upon the Elo rating system

Elo rating system

The Elo rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in two-player games such as chess. It is named after its creator Arpad Elo, a Hungarian-born American physics professor....

method but modified to take various football-specific variables into account. Elo should not be confused with the FIFA World Rankings

FIFA World Rankings

The FIFA World Rankings is a ranking system for men's national teams in association football, currently led by Spain. The teams of the member nations of FIFA , football's world governing body, are ranked based on their game results with the most successful teams being ranked highest...

, which is more prevalent because it is the official rating system used by the international governing body of football

FIFA

The Fédération Internationale de Football Association , commonly known by the acronym FIFA , is the international governing body of :association football, futsal and beach football. Its headquarters are located in Zurich, Switzerland, and its president is Sepp Blatter, who is in his fourth...

to rank national teams.

The ratings take into account all international "A" matches for which results could be found. Ratings tend to converge on a team's true strength relative to its competitors after about 30 matches. Ratings for teams with fewer than 30 matches should be considered provisional.

The FIFA Women's World Rankings

FIFA Women's World Rankings

The FIFA Women's World Rankings for football were introduced in 2003, with the first rankings published in March of that year, as a follow-on to the existing FIFA World Rankings for men...

uses a simplified version of the Elo formula. The FIFA men's ranking

FIFA World Rankings

, however, uses a non-Elo formula.

Top 60 ranking

Current table, as of 17 November 2011, of the World Football Elo rankings, compiled by the World Football Elo Ratings web site.

Each national team's FIFA World Rankings

FIFA World Rankings

as of 19 October 2011.

Elo Rank	Points	Confederation	FIFA Rank
1	2093	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	1
2	2057	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	3
3	2042	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	2
4	2039	CONMEBOL CONMEBOL The South American Football Confederation , commonly known as CONMEBOL , is the continental governing body of association football in South America and it is one of FIFA's six continental confederations...	6
5	1968	CONMEBOL CONMEBOL The South American Football Confederation , commonly known as CONMEBOL , is the continental governing body of association football in South America and it is one of FIFA's six continental confederations...	4
6	1926	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	5
7	1893	CONMEBOL CONMEBOL The South American Football Confederation , commonly known as CONMEBOL , is the continental governing body of association football in South America and it is one of FIFA's six continental confederations...	10
8	1874	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	7
9	1865	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	8
10	1861	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	9
11	1857	CONMEBOL CONMEBOL The South American Football Confederation , commonly known as CONMEBOL , is the continental governing body of association football in South America and it is one of FIFA's six continental confederations...	13
12	1844	CONCACAF CONCACAF The Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football is the continental governing body for association football in North America, Central America and the Caribbean...	20
13	1831	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	18
14	1811	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	15
15	1803	AFC Asian Football Confederation The Asian Football Confederation is the governing body of association football in Asia. It has 46 member countries, mostly located on the Asian continent. However, due to the disputed boundary of Europe and Asia, nations such as Russia and Turkey which are located mostly in geographic Asia are...	22
16	1800	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	11
17	1794	CAF Confederation of African Football The Confederation of African Football is the administrative and controlling body for African association football.CAF represents the national football associations of Africa, runs continental, national, and club competitions, and controls the prize money, regulations and media rights to those...	16
18	1789	AFC Asian Football Confederation The Asian Football Confederation is the governing body of association football in Asia. It has 46 member countries, mostly located on the Asian continent. However, due to the disputed boundary of Europe and Asia, nations such as Russia and Turkey which are located mostly in geographic Asia are...	19
19	1788	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	12
20	1775	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	21
21	1768	CONMEBOL CONMEBOL The South American Football Confederation , commonly known as CONMEBOL , is the continental governing body of association football in South America and it is one of FIFA's six continental confederations...	24
22	1765	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	33
23	1760	CAF Confederation of African Football The Confederation of African Football is the administrative and controlling body for African association football.CAF represents the national football associations of Africa, runs continental, national, and club competitions, and controls the prize money, regulations and media rights to those...	29
24	1759	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	14
25	1758	CONMEBOL CONMEBOL The South American Football Confederation , commonly known as CONMEBOL , is the continental governing body of association football in South America and it is one of FIFA's six continental confederations...	42
26	1755	AFC Asian Football Confederation The Asian Football Confederation is the governing body of association football in Asia. It has 46 member countries, mostly located on the Asian continent. However, due to the disputed boundary of Europe and Asia, nations such as Russia and Turkey which are located mostly in geographic Asia are...	32
27	1746	CONMEBOL CONMEBOL The South American Football Confederation , commonly known as CONMEBOL , is the continental governing body of association football in South America and it is one of FIFA's six continental confederations...	36
28	1740	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	55
29	1737	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	17
30	1733	AFC Asian Football Confederation The Asian Football Confederation is the governing body of association football in Asia. It has 46 member countries, mostly located on the Asian continent. However, due to the disputed boundary of Europe and Asia, nations such as Russia and Turkey which are located mostly in geographic Asia are...	45

Elo Rank	Points	Confederation	FIFA Rank
31	1732	CONMEBOL CONMEBOL The South American Football Confederation , commonly known as CONMEBOL , is the continental governing body of association football in South America and it is one of FIFA's six continental confederations...	35
32	1726	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	25
33	1719	CONMEBOL CONMEBOL The South American Football Confederation , commonly known as CONMEBOL , is the continental governing body of association football in South America and it is one of FIFA's six continental confederations...	39
34	1718	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	28
35	1716	CAF Confederation of African Football The Confederation of African Football is the administrative and controlling body for African association football.CAF represents the national football associations of Africa, runs continental, national, and club competitions, and controls the prize money, regulations and media rights to those...	31
36	1696	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	27
37	1693	CONCACAF CONCACAF The Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football is the continental governing body for association football in North America, Central America and the Caribbean...	34
38	1682	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	66
39	1678	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	56
40	1674	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	49
41	1666	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	23
42	1656	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	41
43	1653	CAF Confederation of African Football The Confederation of African Football is the administrative and controlling body for African association football.CAF represents the national football associations of Africa, runs continental, national, and club competitions, and controls the prize money, regulations and media rights to those...	43
44	1650	CONCACAF CONCACAF The Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football is the continental governing body for association football in North America, Central America and the Caribbean...	51
45	1647	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	37
46	1645	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	37
47	1642	CAF Confederation of African Football The Confederation of African Football is the administrative and controlling body for African association football.CAF represents the national football associations of Africa, runs continental, national, and club competitions, and controls the prize money, regulations and media rights to those...	48
48	1636	CONCACAF CONCACAF The Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football is the continental governing body for association football in North America, Central America and the Caribbean...	54
49	1626	CONCACAF CONCACAF The Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football is the continental governing body for association football in North America, Central America and the Caribbean...	47
50	1625	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	26
50	1625	CONCACAF CONCACAF The Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football is the continental governing body for association football in North America, Central America and the Caribbean...	64
52	1624	AFC Asian Football Confederation The Asian Football Confederation is the governing body of association football in Asia. It has 46 member countries, mostly located on the Asian continent. However, due to the disputed boundary of Europe and Asia, nations such as Russia and Turkey which are located mostly in geographic Asia are...	81
53	1623	CAF Confederation of African Football The Confederation of African Football is the administrative and controlling body for African association football.CAF represents the national football associations of Africa, runs continental, national, and club competitions, and controls the prize money, regulations and media rights to those...	44
54	1618	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	50
55	1611	AFC Asian Football Confederation The Asian Football Confederation is the governing body of association football in Asia. It has 46 member countries, mostly located on the Asian continent. However, due to the disputed boundary of Europe and Asia, nations such as Russia and Turkey which are located mostly in geographic Asia are...	76
56	1603	AFC Asian Football Confederation The Asian Football Confederation is the governing body of association football in Asia. It has 46 member countries, mostly located on the Asian continent. However, due to the disputed boundary of Europe and Asia, nations such as Russia and Turkey which are located mostly in geographic Asia are...	72
57	1595	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	85
58	1594	UEFA UEFA The Union of European Football Associations , almost always referred to by its acronym UEFA is the administrative and controlling body for European association football, futsal and beach soccer....	51
58	1594	CAF Confederation of African Football The Confederation of African Football is the administrative and controlling body for African association football.CAF represents the national football associations of Africa, runs continental, national, and club competitions, and controls the prize money, regulations and media rights to those...	53
60	1578	CONCACAF CONCACAF The Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football is the continental governing body for association football in North America, Central America and the Caribbean...	72

Top 10 since 1970

The following is a list of the national teams with the highest average Elo score from January 1, 1970 to November 1, 2011. See Strongest football nations by Elo Ratings

Strongest football nations by Elo Ratings

National football teams can be ranked by their average Elo scores over time periods, following similar approaches in for example chess. The averages over time are calculated from the scores on the .-Strongest teams since the mid to late 1960s:...

for a top 50 and for tables of the Strongest teams per decade since 1910.

Rank	Country	Average Elo rating
1		2009.9
2		1972.0
3		1925.3
4		1922.5
5		1920.7
6		1898.8
7		1898.0
8		1883.5
9		1853.7
10		1837.2

List of number one teams

The following is the list of nations who have achieved the number one position on the World Football Elo Ratings in the last five years:

Start Date	Nation	# of days
October 7, 2006		122
February 6, 2007		1
February 7, 2007		140
June 27, 2007		14
July 11, 2007		4
July 15, 2007		334
June 13, 2008	/	2
June 15, 2008		6
June 21, 2008		368
June 24, 2009		373
July 2, 2010		1
July 3, 2010	/	3
July 6, 2010		1
July 7, 2010		335

Ranking by days as leader since January 1, 2000

Nation	# of days	Last Date as Leader
	1878	1 July 2010
	1115	10 July 2007
	375	Current
	316	14 July 2007
	109	6 July 2010
	43	15 August 2006
	8	7 June 2005

All-time highest ratings

The following is a list of national football teams ranked by their highest Elo score ever reached.

Rank	Points	Date
1	2166	30 June 1954
2	2153	17 June 1962
3	2140	11 July 2010
4	2117	3 April 1957
5	2105	15 August 2001
6	2100	6 July 2010
7	2099	4 September 1974 (as West Germany)
8	2079	20 July 1939
9	2046	1 September 1974
10	2041	22 October 1966
11	2035	13 June 1928
12	2022	9 October 1983 (as Soviet Union)
13	1999	27 June 2004
14	1998	31 May 1934
15	1982	15 November 2000
16	1967	11 July 1998
17	1961	25 June 1998 (as FR Yugoslavia)
18	1960	13 June 1986
19	1953	10 March 1888
20	1950	25 June 1950
21	1936	19 June 2005
22	1932	21 February 1954
23	1918	12 July 2011
24	1916	9 September 1981
25	1913	13 June 2000

Highest rated matches

A list of the 10 matches between teams with the highest combined Elo ratings (the nation's points before the matches are given).

Rank	Combined points	Elo 1	Elo 2	Score	Date	Occasion	Location
1	4211	2100	2111	0 : 1	2010-07-11	World Cup F 2010 FIFA World Cup Final The 2010 FIFA World Cup Final was a football match that took place on 11 July 2010 at Soccer City in Johannesburg, South Africa, to determine the winner of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Spain defeated the Netherlands 1–0 with a goal from Andrés Iniesta four minutes from the end of extra time...	Johannesburg Johannesburg Johannesburg also known as Jozi, Jo'burg or Egoli, is the largest city in South Africa, by population. Johannesburg is the provincial capital of Gauteng, the wealthiest province in South Africa, having the largest economy of any metropolitan region in Sub-Saharan Africa...
2	4161	1995	2166	3 : 2	1954-07-04	World Cup F 1954 FIFA World Cup Final - External links :* - fifa.com, FIFA, 2002.*...	Bern
3	4158	2050	2108	2 : 1	2010-07-02	World Cup QF	Port Elizabeth
4	4150	2061	2089	0 : 0	2011-06-04	Friendly	Goiania Goiânia -Climate:The city has a tropical wet and dry climate with an average temperature of . There's a wet season, from October to April, and a dry one, from May to September. Annual rainfall is around 1,520 mm....
5	4148	2068	2080	0 : 1	1973-06-16	Friendly	Berlin Berlin Berlin is the capital city of Germany and is one of the 16 states of Germany. With a population of 3.45 million people, Berlin is Germany's largest city. It is the second most populous city proper and the seventh most populous urban area in the European Union...
6	4129	2085	2044	1 : 0	2010-07-07	World Cup SF	Durban Durban Durban is the largest city in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal and the third largest city in South Africa. It forms part of the eThekwini metropolitan municipality. Durban is famous for being the busiest port in South Africa. It is also seen as one of the major centres of tourism...
7	4119	2050	2069	1 : 0	1982-03-21	Friendly	Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro , commonly referred to simply as Rio, is the capital city of the State of Rio de Janeiro, the second largest city of Brazil, and the third largest metropolitan area and agglomeration in South America, boasting approximately 6.3 million people within the city proper, making it the 6th...
8	4118	2108	2010	4 : 2	1954-06-27	World Cup QF	Bern
9	4116	2141	1975	4 : 2	1954-06-30	World Cup SF	Lausanne Lausanne Lausanne is a city in Romandy, the French-speaking part of Switzerland, and is the capital of the canton of Vaud. The seat of the district of Lausanne, the city is situated on the shores of Lake Geneva . It faces the French town of Évian-les-Bains, with the Jura mountains to its north-west...
10	4113	2079	2034	2 : 1	1974-07-07	World Cup F 1974 FIFA World Cup Final -References:...	Munich Munich Munich The city's motto is "" . Before 2006, it was "Weltstadt mit Herz" . Its native name, , is derived from the Old High German Munichen, meaning "by the monks' place". The city's name derives from the monks of the Benedictine order who founded the city; hence the monk depicted on the city's coat...

History

This system, developed by Hungarian

Hungary

Hungary , officially the Republic of Hungary , is a landlocked country in Central Europe. It is situated in the Carpathian Basin and is bordered by Slovakia to the north, Ukraine and Romania to the east, Serbia and Croatia to the south, Slovenia to the southwest and Austria to the west. The...

-American mathematician Dr. Árpád Élő

Árpád Élo

Arpad Emrick Elo is the creator of the Elo rating system for two-player games such as chess. Born in Egyházaskesző, Austro-Hungarian Empire, he moved to the United States with his parents as a child in 1913.Elo was a professor of physics at Marquette University in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He was...

, is used by FIDE

Fédération Internationale des Échecs

The Fédération Internationale des Échecs or World Chess Federation is an international organization that connects the various national chess federations around the world and acts as the governing body of international chess competition. It is usually referred to as FIDE , its French acronym.FIDE...

, the international chess federation, to rate chess

Chess

Chess is a two-player board game played on a chessboard, a square-checkered board with 64 squares arranged in an eight-by-eight grid. It is one of the world's most popular games, played by millions of people worldwide at home, in clubs, online, by correspondence, and in tournaments.Each player...

players, and by the European Go Federation

European Go Federation

The European Go Federation is a non-profit organization with the purpose of encouraging, regulating, co-ordinating, and disseminating the playing of the board game Go in Europe. The EGF was founded in 1957, the same year that the inaugural European Go Congress took place - in Cuxhaven, Germany...

, to rate Go players. In 1997 Bob Runyan adapted the Elo rating system to international football

Football (soccer)

Association football, more commonly known as football or soccer, is a sport played between two teams of eleven players with a spherical ball...

and posted the results on the Internet

Internet

The Internet is a global system of interconnected computer networks that use the standard Internet protocol suite to serve billions of users worldwide...

. He was also the first maintainer of the World Football Elo Ratings web site.

Overview

The Elo system was adapted for football by adding a weighting for the kind of match, an adjustment for the home team advantage, and an adjustment for goal difference in the match result.

The factors taken into consideration when calculating a team's new rating are:

The team's old rating
The considered weight of the tournament
The goal difference of the match
The result of the match
The expected result of the match

The different weights of competitions in descending order are:

World Cup
FIFA World Cup
The FIFA World Cup, often simply the World Cup, is an international association football competition contested by the senior men's national teams of the members of Fédération Internationale de Football Association , the sport's global governing body...

Finals
Continental championships
Football Continental Championships
There are 6 association football continental championships for National Teams from each of the 6 continental confederations contested every 2 to 4 years...

finals and Intercontinental tournaments
World Cup and Continental championship qualifiers
All other tournaments
Friendly matches

The single difference is Elo giving a special treatment for minor tournaments, while FIFA consider them as friendly matches.

These ratings take into account all international "A" matches for which results could be found. Ratings tend to converge on a team's true strength relative to its competitors after about 30 matches. Ratings for teams with fewer than 30 matches should be considered provisional. Match data are primarily from International Football 1872 - Present web site.

Basic calculation principles

The basic principle behind the Elo ratings is only in its simplest form similar to that of a league, unlike the FIFA tables who effectively run their table as a normal league table, but with weightings to take into account the other factors, the Elo system has its one formula which takes into account the factors mentioned above. There is no first step as in the FIFA system where a team immediately receives points for the result, there is just one calculation in the Elo system.

The ratings are based on the following formulae:

or

Where;


	= The new team rating
	= The old team rating
	= Weight index regarding the tournament of the match
	= A number from the index of goal differences
	= The result of the match
	= The expected result
	= Points Change

Status of match

The status of the match is incorporated by the use of a weight constant. The weight is a constant regarding the "weight" or importance of a match, defined by which tournament the match is in, they are as follows;

Tournament or Match type	Index (K)
World Cup Finals	60
Continental Championship and Intercontinental Tournaments	50
World Cup and Continental qualifiers and major tournaments	40
All other tournaments	30
Friendly Matches	20

Number of goals

The number of goals is taken into account by use of a goal difference index. G is increased by half if a game is won by two goals, and if the game is won by three or more goals by a number decided through the appropriate calculation shown below;

If the game is a draw or is won by one goal

If the game is won by two goals

If the game is won by three or more goals

Where N is the goal difference

Table of examples:

Goal Difference	Coefficient of K (G)
0	1
+1	1
+2	1.5
+3	1.75
+4	1.875
+5	2
+6	2.125
+7	2.25
+8	2.375
+9	2.5
+10	2.625

Expected result of match

W_e is the expected result (win expectancy with a draw counting as 0.5) from the following formula:

where dr equals the difference in ratings plus 100 points for a team playing at home.
So dr of 0 gives 0.5, of 120 gives 0.666 to the higher ranked team and 0.334 to the lower, and of 800 gives 0.99 to the higher ranked team and 0.01 to the lower.

Examples

The same examples have been used on the FIFA World Rankings

FIFA World Rankings

for a fair comparison. Some actual examples should help to make the methods of calculation clear. In this instance it is assumed that three teams of different strengths are involved in a small friendly tournament on neutral territory.

Before the tournament the three teams have the following point totals.

Team	Points
A	630
B	500
C	480

Thus, team A is by some distance the highest ranked of the three:
The following table shows the points allocations based on three possible outcomes of the match between the strongest team A, and the somewhat weaker team B:

Example 1

Team A versus Team B (Team A stronger than Team B)

9.63
Total (P)
	Team A	Team B	Team A	Team B	Team A	Team B
Score	3 : 1		1 : 3		2 : 2
	20	20	20	20	20	20
	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1	1
	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
	0.679	0.321	0.679	0.321	0.679	0.321

Example 2

Team B versus Team C (both teams approximately the same strength)

When the difference in strength between the two teams is less, so also will be the difference in points allocation. The following table illustrates how the points would be divided following the same results as above, but with two roughly equally ranked teams, B and C, being involved: