Swing vote
Encyclopedia
Swing vote is a term used to describe a vote that may go to any of a number of candidates in an election, or, in a two-party system
, may go to either of the two dominant political parties. Such votes are usually sought after in elections, since they can play a big role in determining the outcome.
A swing voter or floating voter is a voter who may not be affiliated with a particular political party
(Independent) or who will vote across party lines. In American politics, many centrists, liberal
Republicans and conservative
Democrats are considered "swing voters" since their voting patterns cannot be predicted with certainty.
While the swing voter is ostensibly the target of most political activity during elections, in countries without compulsory voting the political parties know that the shift from one party to another is dependent only to a limited extent on swing voters. Another, arguably larger factor is the success of one party in comparison to another in getting out its core support. In a two-party system, those who become disillusioned with their favored party are more likely to vote third-party
or abstain than cross over.
However, in the 24 countries with compulsory voting
, voter turnout is often already very close to 100%, so if the major parties are roughly balanced in popularity, swing voters can have a marked influence on the outcome.
to a particular candidate and will not consider changing their minds whatever the opposition says.
Swing voters are undecided about how they will vote. They are sometimes referred to as undecideds, undecided voters, or floating voter.
In the United States
, they may be dissatisfied Republicans or Democrats who are open to the idea of voting for other parties
, or they could be people who have never had a strong affiliation with any political party, and will vote depending on certain things that influence them - e.g. healthcare, benefits
, election campaign etc.
Some might be people who have never exercised their right to vote before, such as those just reaching voting age
.
Because the votes of swing voters are considered to be "up for grabs", candidates direct a fair proportion of campaign effort towards them, although they must also be concerned with voter turnout among their political base.
win the Minnesota
gubernatorial election in 1998. Swing voters who support third-party
candidates take potential votes away from the major candidates. Ventura was a third-party candidate; his opponents were seen as two weak major-party candidates, and this situation created many more swing voters than usual. This resulted in Ventura, the third-party candidate, winning the election.
s" (Democrats who voted for Republican
Ronald Reagan
in the 1980s) and "Clinton Conservatives" (Republicans who voted for Bill Clinton
). On the Supreme Court of the United States
, Associate Justices Potter Stewart
and Anthony Kennedy
have been described as swing votes between the two factions of the court.
Two-party system
A two-party system is a system where two major political parties dominate voting in nearly all elections at every level of government and, as a result, all or nearly all elected offices are members of one of the two major parties...
, may go to either of the two dominant political parties. Such votes are usually sought after in elections, since they can play a big role in determining the outcome.
A swing voter or floating voter is a voter who may not be affiliated with a particular political party
Political party
A political party is a political organization that typically seeks to influence government policy, usually by nominating their own candidates and trying to seat them in political office. Parties participate in electoral campaigns, educational outreach or protest actions...
(Independent) or who will vote across party lines. In American politics, many centrists, liberal
Liberalism
Liberalism is the belief in the importance of liberty and equal rights. Liberals espouse a wide array of views depending on their understanding of these principles, but generally, liberals support ideas such as constitutionalism, liberal democracy, free and fair elections, human rights,...
Republicans and conservative
Conservatism
Conservatism is a political and social philosophy that promotes the maintenance of traditional institutions and supports, at the most, minimal and gradual change in society. Some conservatives seek to preserve things as they are, emphasizing stability and continuity, while others oppose modernism...
Democrats are considered "swing voters" since their voting patterns cannot be predicted with certainty.
While the swing voter is ostensibly the target of most political activity during elections, in countries without compulsory voting the political parties know that the shift from one party to another is dependent only to a limited extent on swing voters. Another, arguably larger factor is the success of one party in comparison to another in getting out its core support. In a two-party system, those who become disillusioned with their favored party are more likely to vote third-party
Third party (politics)
In a two-party system of politics, the term third party is sometimes applied to a party other than the two dominant ones. While technically the term is limited to the third largest party or third oldest party, it is common, though innumerate, shorthand for any smaller party.For instance, in the...
or abstain than cross over.
However, in the 24 countries with compulsory voting
Compulsory voting
Compulsory voting is a system in which electors are obliged to vote in elections or attend a polling place on voting day. If an eligible voter does not attend a polling place, he or she may be subject to punitive measures such as fines, community service, or perhaps imprisonment if fines are unpaid...
, voter turnout is often already very close to 100%, so if the major parties are roughly balanced in popularity, swing voters can have a marked influence on the outcome.
Profile of a swing voter
In an election, there are "certain" or "lock" votes - voters who are solidly behind or partisanPartisan (political)
In politics, a partisan is a committed member of a political party. In multi-party systems, the term is widely understood to carry a negative connotation - referring to those who wholly support their party's policies and are perhaps even reluctant to acknowledge correctness on the part of their...
to a particular candidate and will not consider changing their minds whatever the opposition says.
Swing voters are undecided about how they will vote. They are sometimes referred to as undecideds, undecided voters, or floating voter.
In the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
, they may be dissatisfied Republicans or Democrats who are open to the idea of voting for other parties
Political party
A political party is a political organization that typically seeks to influence government policy, usually by nominating their own candidates and trying to seat them in political office. Parties participate in electoral campaigns, educational outreach or protest actions...
, or they could be people who have never had a strong affiliation with any political party, and will vote depending on certain things that influence them - e.g. healthcare, benefits
Employee benefit
Employee benefits and benefits in kind are various non-wage compensations provided to employees in addition to their normal wages or salaries...
, election campaign etc.
Some might be people who have never exercised their right to vote before, such as those just reaching voting age
Voting age
A voting age is a minimum age established by law that a person must attain to be eligible to vote in a public election.The vast majority of countries in the world have established a voting age. Most governments consider that those of any age lower than the chosen threshold lack the necessary...
.
Because the votes of swing voters are considered to be "up for grabs", candidates direct a fair proportion of campaign effort towards them, although they must also be concerned with voter turnout among their political base.
The impact of swing voters
Swing voters occasionally play a huge part in elections. First-time voters and swing voters are usually credited for helping Jesse VenturaJesse Ventura
James George Janos , better known as Jesse Ventura, is an American politician, the 38th Governor of Minnesota from 1999 to 2003, Navy UDT veteran, former SEAL reservist, actor, and former radio and television talk show host...
win the Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota is a U.S. state located in the Midwestern United States. The twelfth largest state of the U.S., it is the twenty-first most populous, with 5.3 million residents. Minnesota was carved out of the eastern half of the Minnesota Territory and admitted to the Union as the thirty-second state...
gubernatorial election in 1998. Swing voters who support third-party
Third party (politics)
In a two-party system of politics, the term third party is sometimes applied to a party other than the two dominant ones. While technically the term is limited to the third largest party or third oldest party, it is common, though innumerate, shorthand for any smaller party.For instance, in the...
candidates take potential votes away from the major candidates. Ventura was a third-party candidate; his opponents were seen as two weak major-party candidates, and this situation created many more swing voters than usual. This resulted in Ventura, the third-party candidate, winning the election.
Examples of swing voters
Common examples of swing voters include "Reagan DemocratReagan Democrat
Reagan Democrat is an American political term used by analysts to denote traditionally Democratic voters, especially white working-class Northerners, who defected from their party to support Republican President Ronald Reagan in both the 1980 and 1984 elections. It is also used to refer to the...
s" (Democrats who voted for Republican
Republican Party (United States)
The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Democratic Party. Founded by anti-slavery expansion activists in 1854, it is often called the GOP . The party's platform generally reflects American conservatism in the U.S...
Ronald Reagan
Ronald Reagan
Ronald Wilson Reagan was the 40th President of the United States , the 33rd Governor of California and, prior to that, a radio, film and television actor....
in the 1980s) and "Clinton Conservatives" (Republicans who voted for Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton
William Jefferson "Bill" Clinton is an American politician who served as the 42nd President of the United States from 1993 to 2001. Inaugurated at age 46, he was the third-youngest president. He took office at the end of the Cold War, and was the first president of the baby boomer generation...
). On the Supreme Court of the United States
Supreme Court of the United States
The Supreme Court of the United States is the highest court in the United States. It has ultimate appellate jurisdiction over all state and federal courts, and original jurisdiction over a small range of cases...
, Associate Justices Potter Stewart
Potter Stewart
Potter Stewart was an Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court. During his tenure, he made, among other areas, major contributions to criminal justice reform, civil rights, access to the courts, and Fourth Amendment jurisprudence.-Education:Stewart was born in Jackson, Michigan,...
and Anthony Kennedy
Anthony Kennedy
Anthony McLeod Kennedy is an Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court, having been appointed by President Ronald Reagan in 1988. Since the retirement of Sandra Day O'Connor, Kennedy has often been the swing vote on many of the Court's politically charged 5–4 decisions...
have been described as swing votes between the two factions of the court.