Strategic foresight
Encyclopedia
Strategic foresight is a fairly recent attempt to differentiate "futurology
" from "futures studies". It arises from the premise that:
Strategic foresight is used as part of the corporate foresight
in large companies . Strategic foresight can also be practiced at three different levels:
Two approaches to futures studies that are especially focussed at those last two levels of strategic foresight are Critical futures and Integral futures.
Strategic Foresight Group
defines foresight as a combination of forecasting with insight. While forecasting
requires methodologies, generated by computers or otherwise, insight requires deep understanding of the subject concerned. Foresight is developed by applying forecasting methodology to the insight. Strategic Foresight relates to foresight of strategic issues. Thus, strategic foresight can be developed by scientific study. It is not about intuition or guess work. The difference between strategic foresight and futurology
is that strategic foresight provides alternative scenarios for the future. Futurology attempts to provide a definitive picture of the future.
Futurology
Futures studies is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science. In general, it can be considered as a branch under the more general scope of the field of...
" from "futures studies". It arises from the premise that:
- The future is not predictablePredictabilityPredictability is the degree to which a correct prediction or forecast of a system's state can be made either qualitatively or quantitatively.-Predictability and Causality:...
; - The future is not predetermined; and
- Future outcomes can be influenced by our choices in the present.
Strategic foresight is used as part of the corporate foresight
Corporate foresight
Corporate foresight is an ability that includes any structural or cultural element that enables the company to detect discontinuous change early, interpret the consequences for the company, and formulate effective responses to ensure the long-term survival and success of the company.The motivation...
in large companies . Strategic foresight can also be practiced at three different levels:
- Pragmatic foresight - "Carrying out tomorrows' business better"
- Progressive foresight - "Going beyond conventional thinking and practices and reformulating processes, products, and services using quite different assumptions"
- Civilisational foresight - "Seeks to understand the aspects of the next civilisation - the one that lies beyond the current impasse, the prevailing hegemony of techno/industrial/capitalist interests".
Two approaches to futures studies that are especially focussed at those last two levels of strategic foresight are Critical futures and Integral futures.
Strategic Foresight Group
Strategic Foresight Group
Strategic Foresight Group is a think tank based in India that works on issues of global importance and relevance. It was established in 2002 to create new forms of intellectual capital. It identifies emerging trends across sectors at regional and global levels and enables policy-makers to respond...
defines foresight as a combination of forecasting with insight. While forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term...
requires methodologies, generated by computers or otherwise, insight requires deep understanding of the subject concerned. Foresight is developed by applying forecasting methodology to the insight. Strategic Foresight relates to foresight of strategic issues. Thus, strategic foresight can be developed by scientific study. It is not about intuition or guess work. The difference between strategic foresight and futurology
Futurology
Futures studies is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science. In general, it can be considered as a branch under the more general scope of the field of...
is that strategic foresight provides alternative scenarios for the future. Futurology attempts to provide a definitive picture of the future.
Quotes
- Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter (1999), p.287).
- Take hold of your future or the future will take hold of you (Patrick DixonPatrick DixonDr Patrick Dixon is an author and business consultant, often described as a futurist. In 2005 he was ranked as one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive according to the Thinkers 50...
FuturewiseFuturewiseFuturewise is a book on global trends written by the futurist Patrick Dixon in 1998, with new editions in 2001, 2003 and 2007. Dr Patrick Dixon has been ranked as one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today by Thinkers 50, and is author of 11 other books including Building a...
publ 2005)
See also
- Corporate foresightCorporate foresightCorporate foresight is an ability that includes any structural or cultural element that enables the company to detect discontinuous change early, interpret the consequences for the company, and formulate effective responses to ensure the long-term survival and success of the company.The motivation...
- ForecastingForecastingForecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term...
- Foresight (future studies)Foresight (future studies)In futures studies, especially in Europe, the term "foresight" has become widely used to describe activities such as:*critical thinking concerning long-term developments,*debate and effort to create wider participatory democracy,...
- FuturologyFuturologyFutures studies is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science. In general, it can be considered as a branch under the more general scope of the field of...
- Optimism biasOptimism biasOptimism bias is the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be overly optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. This includes over-estimating the likelihood of positive events and under-estimating the likelihood of negative events. Along with the illusion of control and illusory...
- Reference class forecastingReference class forecastingReference class forecasting is the method of predicting the future, through looking at similar past situations and their outcomes.Reference class forcasting predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast. The theories...
- Technology forecastingTechnology forecastingTechnology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques.-Important aspects:...
- Technology ScoutingTechnology ScoutingTechnology scouting can be regarded as a method of Technology forecasting or in the broader context also an element of corporate foresight. At the same time Technology Scouting also contributes to Technology Management by identifying emerging technologies, channel technology related information...
External links
- Towards Critical Foresight
- Blog on corporate foresight and organizational future orientation
- How to make sense of your environment through strategic analysis
- Group in Xing: Strategic Foresight - Strategische Frühaufklärung
- The Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation program at the Ontario College of Art and Design
- The Master of Arts in Strategic Foresight at Regent University
- The Strategic Foresight and Innovation group on LinkedIn
- Master of Management (Strategic Foresight), Australian Graduate School of Entrepreneurs, Swinburne University. Twitter: @agseforesight