Foresight (future studies)
Encyclopedia
In futures studies, especially in Europe, the term "foresight" has become widely used to describe activities such as:
In the last decade, scenario methods, for example, have become widely used in some European countries in policy-making . The FORSOCIETY network brings together national Foresight teams from most European countries, and the European Foresight Monitoring Project is collating material on Foresight activities around the world. In addition, foresight methods are being used more and more in regional planning
and decision –making (“regional foresight”).
At the same time, the use of foresight for companies (“corporate foresight
”) is becoming more professional and widespread Corporate foresight
is used to support strategic management, identify new business fields and increase the innovation capacity of a firm.
Foresight is not the same as futures research or strategic planning
. It encompasses a range of approaches that combine the three components mentioned above, which may be recast as:
Much futures research has been rather ivory tower
work, but Foresight programmes were designed to influence policy - often R&D policy. Much technology policy had been very elitist; Foresight attempts to go beyond the "usual suspects" and gather widely distributed intelligence. These three lines of work were already common in Francophone futures studies going by the name la prospective. But in the 1990s we began to see what became an explosion of systematic organisation of these methods in large scale TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT programmes in Europe and more widely. Foresight thus draws on traditions of work in long-range planning and strategic planning, horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, and participatory futures studies - but was also highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, science and technology policy, and analysis of "critical technologies".
Many of the methods that are commonly associated with Foresight - Delphi surveys, scenario workshops, etc. - derive from the futures field. So does the fact that Foresight is concerned with:
- critical thinkingCritical thinkingCritical thinking is the process or method of thinking that questions assumptions. It is a way of deciding whether a claim is true, false, or sometimes true and sometimes false, or partly true and partly false. The origins of critical thinking can be traced in Western thought to the Socratic...
concerning long-term developments, - debateDebateDebate or debating is a method of interactive and representational argument. Debate is a broader form of argument than logical argument, which only examines consistency from axiom, and factual argument, which only examines what is or isn't the case or rhetoric which is a technique of persuasion...
and effort to create wider participatory democracyParticipatory democracyParticipatory Democracy, also known as Deliberative Democracy, Direct Democracy and Real Democracy , is a process where political decisions are made directly by regular people...
, - shaping the future, especially by influencing public policyPublic policyPublic policy as government action is generally the principled guide to action taken by the administrative or executive branches of the state with regard to a class of issues in a manner consistent with law and institutional customs. In general, the foundation is the pertinent national and...
.
In the last decade, scenario methods, for example, have become widely used in some European countries in policy-making . The FORSOCIETY network brings together national Foresight teams from most European countries, and the European Foresight Monitoring Project is collating material on Foresight activities around the world. In addition, foresight methods are being used more and more in regional planning
Regional planning
Regional planning deals with the efficient placement of land use activities, infrastructure, and settlement growth across a larger area of land than an individual city or town. The related field of urban planning deals with the specific issues of city planning...
and decision –making (“regional foresight”).
At the same time, the use of foresight for companies (“corporate foresight
Corporate foresight
Corporate foresight is an ability that includes any structural or cultural element that enables the company to detect discontinuous change early, interpret the consequences for the company, and formulate effective responses to ensure the long-term survival and success of the company.The motivation...
”) is becoming more professional and widespread Corporate foresight
Corporate foresight
Corporate foresight is an ability that includes any structural or cultural element that enables the company to detect discontinuous change early, interpret the consequences for the company, and formulate effective responses to ensure the long-term survival and success of the company.The motivation...
is used to support strategic management, identify new business fields and increase the innovation capacity of a firm.
Foresight is not the same as futures research or strategic planning
Strategic planning
Strategic planning is an organization's process of defining its strategy, or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to pursue this strategy. In order to determine the direction of the organization, it is necessary to understand its current position and the possible avenues...
. It encompasses a range of approaches that combine the three components mentioned above, which may be recast as:
- futures (forecasting, forward thinking, prospectives),
- planning (strategic analysis, priority setting), and
- networking (participatory, dialogic) tools and orientations.
Much futures research has been rather ivory tower
Ivory Tower
The term Ivory Tower originates in the Biblical Song of Solomon , and was later used as an epithet for Mary.From the 19th century it has been used to designate a world or atmosphere where intellectuals engage in pursuits that are disconnected from the practical concerns of everyday life...
work, but Foresight programmes were designed to influence policy - often R&D policy. Much technology policy had been very elitist; Foresight attempts to go beyond the "usual suspects" and gather widely distributed intelligence. These three lines of work were already common in Francophone futures studies going by the name la prospective. But in the 1990s we began to see what became an explosion of systematic organisation of these methods in large scale TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT programmes in Europe and more widely. Foresight thus draws on traditions of work in long-range planning and strategic planning, horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, and participatory futures studies - but was also highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, science and technology policy, and analysis of "critical technologies".
Many of the methods that are commonly associated with Foresight - Delphi surveys, scenario workshops, etc. - derive from the futures field. So does the fact that Foresight is concerned with:
- The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away(though there are some exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is action-oriented (the planning link) it will rarely be oriented to perspectives beyond a few decades out (though where decisions like aircraft designAeronauticsAeronautics is the science involved with the study, design, and manufacturing of airflight-capable machines, or the techniques of operating aircraft and rocketry within the atmosphere...
, power stationPower stationA power station is an industrial facility for the generation of electric energy....
construction or other major infrastructural decisions are concerned, then the planning horizonPlanning horizonThe planning horizon is the amount of time an organization will look into the future when preparing a strategic plan. Many commercial companies use a five-year planning horizon, but other organizations such as the Forestry Commission in the UK have to use a much longer planning horizon to form...
may well be half a century).
- Alternative futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, not just what is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. Often Foresight will construct multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way to creating what may be known as positive visions, success scenarios, aspirational futures. Sometimes alternative scenarios will be a major part of the output of Foresight work, with the decision about what future to build being left to other mechanisms.
Further reading
There are numerous journals that deal with research on foresight:- The highest ranking journal is Technological Forecasting and Social Change
- Its smaller brother is Foresight
- Research focussing more on the combination of foresight and national R&D policy can be found in International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy
See also
- www.foresighths.com
- Foresight InstituteForesight InstituteThe Foresight Institute is a Palo Alto, California-based nonprofit organization for promoting transformative technologies. They sponsor conferences on molecular nanotechnology, publish reports, and produce a newsletter....
- Corporate foresightCorporate foresightCorporate foresight is an ability that includes any structural or cultural element that enables the company to detect discontinuous change early, interpret the consequences for the company, and formulate effective responses to ensure the long-term survival and success of the company.The motivation...
- ForecastingForecastingForecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term...
- FuturologyFuturologyFutures studies is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science. In general, it can be considered as a branch under the more general scope of the field of...
- Optimism biasOptimism biasOptimism bias is the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be overly optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. This includes over-estimating the likelihood of positive events and under-estimating the likelihood of negative events. Along with the illusion of control and illusory...
- Reference class forecastingReference class forecastingReference class forecasting is the method of predicting the future, through looking at similar past situations and their outcomes.Reference class forcasting predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast. The theories...
- Scenario planningScenario planningScenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.The original method was that a...
- Strategic foresightStrategic foresightStrategic foresight is a fairly recent attempt to differentiate "futurology" from "futures studies". It arises from the premise that:*The future is not predictable;*The future is not predetermined; and...
- Technology forecastingTechnology forecastingTechnology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques.-Important aspects:...
- Technology ScoutingTechnology ScoutingTechnology scouting can be regarded as a method of Technology forecasting or in the broader context also an element of corporate foresight. At the same time Technology Scouting also contributes to Technology Management by identifying emerging technologies, channel technology related information...
External links
- Blog on foresight in companies
- The FORLEARN Online Guide developed by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European CommissionEuropean CommissionThe European Commission is the executive body of the European Union. The body is responsible for proposing legislation, implementing decisions, upholding the Union's treaties and the general day-to-day running of the Union....
- The Foresight Programme of UNIDO, the Investment and Technology Promotion Branch of the United NationsUnited NationsThe United Nations is an international organization whose stated aims are facilitating cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights, and achievement of world peace...
Industrial Development Organization, offers a Training programme, a Manual on Technology Foresight, a foresight textbook, global forum events like TF Summit 2007 and other useful information - Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight published by the European Foundation, Dublin
- The UK Foresight programme is managed by the Office of Science and Technology. It brings together key people, knowledge and ideas to envisage future society and technologyTechnology and societyTechnology and society or technology and culture refers to cyclical co-dependence, co-influence, co-production of technology and society upon the other . This synergistic relationship occurred from the dawn of humankind, with the invention of simple tools and continues into modern technologies such...
. - Public Scenarios developed issues from healthcare and banking, aviation founded by the DTN
- Institute for Alternative Futures