Robert Schlaifer
Encyclopedia
Robert O. Schlaifer was a pioneer of Bayesian decision theory. At the time of his death he was William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration Emeritus of the Harvard Business School
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Robert Osher Schlaifer, a native of Vermillion, S.D. and a graduate of Amherst College, had a unique background for a statistical decision theorist. He was trained as a classical historian and classical Greek scholar: he attended the American School of Classical Studies in Athens and earned a Ph.D. in ancient history at Harvard in 1940. He taught history, economics and physics at the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard. During the Second World War he started writing technical reports and produced a major volume on the development of aircraft engines. He got an appointment at the Harvard Business School and when the statistics teacher retired he started to teach statistics—starting by teaching himself. He had very little mathematical background and Raifa recalled how they worked together: "I would teach him something about linear algebra in the morning and he would show me how it could be applied in the afternoon." (from the interview with Fienberg)
Schlaifer made an important contribution to Bayesian decision theory. His work and his character are described in the following appreciations.
In 1992 the Decision Analysis Society awarded Schlaifer the Frank P. Ramsey
Medal for distinguished contributions to the field of decision analysis. In making the award Bob Winkler noted Schlaifer's pioneering efforts in decision analysis.
Winkler also quoted the following assessment from Howard Raiffa
, who worked with Schlaifer and was the recipient of the first Ramsey Medal in 1984:
In the preface to the second 1971 edition of Foundations of Statistics Savage wrote
Schlaifer's book with John W. Pratt
and Raiffa was published posthumously and his co-authors wrote this dedication:
. He found that the best way to get a good engine quickly was to bring to test as soon as possible a number of alternate designs, pick one that combined good characteristics with few development problems, and then work intensely to develop it.
Harvard Business School
Harvard Business School is the graduate business school of Harvard University in Boston, Massachusetts, United States and is widely recognized as one of the top business schools in the world. The school offers the world's largest full-time MBA program, doctoral programs, and many executive...
.
Robert Osher Schlaifer, a native of Vermillion, S.D. and a graduate of Amherst College, had a unique background for a statistical decision theorist. He was trained as a classical historian and classical Greek scholar: he attended the American School of Classical Studies in Athens and earned a Ph.D. in ancient history at Harvard in 1940. He taught history, economics and physics at the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard. During the Second World War he started writing technical reports and produced a major volume on the development of aircraft engines. He got an appointment at the Harvard Business School and when the statistics teacher retired he started to teach statistics—starting by teaching himself. He had very little mathematical background and Raifa recalled how they worked together: "I would teach him something about linear algebra in the morning and he would show me how it could be applied in the afternoon." (from the interview with Fienberg)
Schlaifer made an important contribution to Bayesian decision theory. His work and his character are described in the following appreciations.
In 1992 the Decision Analysis Society awarded Schlaifer the Frank P. Ramsey
Frank P. Ramsey
Frank Plumpton Ramsey was a British mathematician who, in addition to mathematics, made significant and precocious contributions in philosophy and economics before his death at the age of 26...
Medal for distinguished contributions to the field of decision analysis. In making the award Bob Winkler noted Schlaifer's pioneering efforts in decision analysis.
- His 1959 book, Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions, was a landmark effort, coming only five years after L. J. SavageLeonard Jimmie SavageLeonard Jimmie Savage was an American mathematician and statistician. Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman said Savage was "one of the few people I have met whom I would unhesitatingly call a genius."...
, in his classic Foundations of Statistics, presented a development of subjective probability and utilityUtilityIn economics, utility is a measure of customer satisfaction, referring to the total satisfaction received by a consumer from consuming a good or service....
but then inexplicably reverted to minimaxMinimaxMinimax is a decision rule used in decision theory, game theory, statistics and philosophy for minimizing the possible loss for a worst case scenario. Alternatively, it can be thought of as maximizing the minimum gain...
arguments in the latter part of the book. Schlaifer, with no formal training in statistics or mathematical modeling, got it right and took the first steps toward bridging the theory/practice gap.
Winkler also quoted the following assessment from Howard Raiffa
Howard Raiffa
Howard Raiffa is the Frank P. Ramsey Professor of Managerial Economics, a joint chair held by the Business School and the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University...
, who worked with Schlaifer and was the recipient of the first Ramsey Medal in 1984:
- “The basic ideas of statistical decision theory were conceived by (Schlaifer) independently of the work of L. J. SavageLeonard Jimmie SavageLeonard Jimmie Savage was an American mathematician and statistician. Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman said Savage was "one of the few people I have met whom I would unhesitatingly call a genius."...
or de FinettiBruno de FinettiBruno de Finetti was an Italian probabilist, statistician and actuary, noted for the "operational subjective" conception of probability...
, and early on he saw that those ideas were broadly applicable to problems in decision making under uncertainty. He was a pioneer in the practical assessment of subjective probabilities and utilities… (Schlaifer) influenced my intellectual development more than any other individual — more than Abraham WaldAbraham Wald- See also :* Sequential probability ratio test * Wald distribution* Wald–Wolfowitz runs test...
or von NeumannJohn von NeumannJohn von Neumann was a Hungarian-American mathematician and polymath who made major contributions to a vast number of fields, including set theory, functional analysis, quantum mechanics, ergodic theory, geometry, fluid dynamics, economics and game theory, computer science, numerical analysis,...
or Savage or ArrowKenneth ArrowKenneth Joseph Arrow is an American economist and joint winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics with John Hicks in 1972. To date, he is the youngest person to have received this award, at 51....
.”
In the preface to the second 1971 edition of Foundations of Statistics Savage wrote
- This is a welcome opportunity to say that his [Schlaifer's] ideas were developed wholly independently of the present book, and indeed of other personalistic literature. They are in full harmony with the ideas of this book but are more down to earth and less spellbound by tradition.
Schlaifer's book with John W. Pratt
John W. Pratt
John W. Pratt is Emeritus William Ziegler professor business administration at Harvard University. He has made contributions to research in risk aversion theory, notably with Kenneth Arrow on measures of risk aversion....
and Raiffa was published posthumously and his co-authors wrote this dedication:
- Robert O. Schlaifer (1915 – 1994): An original, deep, creative, indefatigable, persistent, versatile, demanding, sometimes irascible scholar, who was an inspiration to us both.
Role in Development of Aircraft Engines & Fuels
Schlaifer was involved in the development of military aircraft engines and fuels prior to World War IIWorld War II
World War II, or the Second World War , was a global conflict lasting from 1939 to 1945, involving most of the world's nations—including all of the great powers—eventually forming two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis...
. He found that the best way to get a good engine quickly was to bring to test as soon as possible a number of alternate designs, pick one that combined good characteristics with few development problems, and then work intensely to develop it.
Some publications of Robert Schlaifer
- Greek Theories of Slavery from Homer to Aristotle, Harvard Studies in Classical Philology, Vol. 47 (1936), pp. 165–204.
- Demon of Paeania, Priest of Asclepius, Classical Philology, Vol. 38, No. 1 (Jan., 1943), pp. 39–43.
- Development of Aircraft Engines. Boston : Division of Research, Graduate School of Business Administration, Harvard University, 1950.
- Probability and statistics for business decisions. An introduction to managerial economics under uncertainty New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1959
- Applied statistical decision theory (with Howard Raiffa) Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1961.
- Introduction to statistical decision theory John W. Pratt, Howard Raiffa, Robert Schlaifer preliminary edition, 1965. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1995.