The name "probabilistic argumentation" has been used to refer to a particular theory of reasoning that encompasses uncertainty and ignorance, combining probability theory

Probability theory

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena. The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or measured quantities that may either be single...

 and deductive logic, and thus consisting in a probabilistic logic

Probabilistic logic

The aim of a probabilistic logic is to combine the capacity of probability theory to handle uncertainty with the capacity of deductive logic to exploit structure. The result is a richer and more expressive formalism with a broad range of possible application areas...

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Probabilistic argumentation theory encounters a problem when used to determine the occurrence of Black Swan

Black swan theory

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that The event is a surprise and has a major impact...

 events since, by definition, those events are so improbable as to seem impossible. As such, probabilistic arguments should be considered fallacious arguments known as appeals to probability

Appeal to probability

An appeal to probability is a justification based on probability, sometimes regarded as a logical fallacy, when an unwarranted assumption that something will happen, because it can happen, or when the odds of an occurrence are unrealistically played down in lieu of appropriate precaution.Although a...

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