An appeal to probability is a justification based on probability, sometimes regarded as a logical fallacy, when an unwarranted assumption that something will happen, because it can happen, or when the odds of an occurrence are unrealistically played down in lieu of appropriate precaution.

Although a fallacy when used in absolute terms, probability can be used for many beneficial purposes. The fields of statistics

Statistics

Statistics is the study of the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of data. It deals with all aspects of this, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments....

, insurance

Insurance

In law and economics, insurance is a form of risk management primarily used to hedge against the risk of a contingent, uncertain loss. Insurance is defined as the equitable transfer of the risk of a loss, from one entity to another, in exchange for payment. An insurer is a company selling the...

, risk management

Risk management

Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities...

, and urban planning

Urban planning

Urban planning incorporates areas such as economics, design, ecology, sociology, geography, law, political science, and statistics to guide and ensure the orderly development of settlements and communities....

, all use probability to determine the likelihood of risk or negative outcomes, or gain and positive outcomes.

See also

• Murphy's law
  Murphy's law
  Murphy's law is an adage or epigram that is typically stated as: "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong". - History :The perceived perversity of the universe has long been a subject of comment, and precursors to the modern version of Murphy's law are not hard to find. Recent significant...
  
  
• Infinite monkey theorem
  Infinite monkey theorem
  The infinite monkey theorem states that a monkey hitting keys at random on a typewriter keyboard for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type a given text, such as the complete works of William Shakespeare....
  
  , a mathematically rigorous probabilistic statement
• Compare with: Axiom S5
  Axiom S5
  Axiom S5 is the distinctive axiom of the S5 modal logic and states that if possibly p, then necessarily possibly p. It also states, perhaps less intuitively and more controversially, that if possibly necessarily p, then necessarily p...