Portuguese legislative election, 2011
Encyclopedia
A general election was held in Portugal
Portugal
Portugal , officially the Portuguese Republic is a country situated in southwestern Europe on the Iberian Peninsula. Portugal is the westernmost country of Europe, and is bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the West and South and by Spain to the North and East. The Atlantic archipelagos of the...

 on 5 June 2011 to elect all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic
Assembly of the Republic
The Assembly of the Republic is the Portuguese parliament. It is located in a historical building in Lisbon, referred to as Palácio de São Bento, the site of an old Benedictine monastery...

. Pedro Passos Coelho
Pedro Passos Coelho
Pedro Manuel Mamede Passos Coelho , is Prime Minister of Portugal. Passos Coelho started very early in politics, becoming the national leader of the youth branch of the Social Democratic Party...

 led the center-right Social Democratic Party
Social Democratic Party (Portugal)
The Social Democratic Party , is a centre-right liberal conservative political party in Portugal. It is commonly known by its initials, PSD; on ballot papers, its initials appear as PPD/PSD, with the first three letters coming from the party's original name, Democratic People's Party...

 to victory over the Socialist Party
Socialist Party (Portugal)
The Socialist Party , abbreviated to PS, is a social-democratic political party in Portugal. It was founded on 19 April 1973 in the German city of Bad Münstereifel, by militants from Portuguese Socialist Action ....

, led by incumbent Prime Minister
Prime Minister of Portugal
Prime Minister is the current title of the chief of the Portuguese Government. As chief executive, the Prime Minister coordinates the action of ministers, representing the Government from the other organs of state, accountable to Parliament and keeps the President informed...

 José Sócrates
José Sócrates
José Sócrates Carvalho Pinto de Sousa, GCIH , commonly known by José Sócrates , is a Portuguese politician who was the Prime Minister of Portugal from 12 March 2005 to 21 June 2011....

. With a historically low turnout of less than 60% of registered voters, the center-right won a clear mandate, winning nearly 130 MPs, more than 56% of the seats,
and just over 50% of the vote. While the People's Party, continuing the trend they begun in 2009,
earned their best score since 1983, the Social Democrats exceeded the expected result in the opinion polls and won the same number of seats as they did in 2002, when the PSD was led by José Manuel Durão Barroso
José Manuel Durão Barroso
José Manuel Durão Barroso is a Portuguese politician. He is President of the European Commission, since 23 November 2004. He served as Prime Minister of Portugal from 6 April 2002 to 17 July 2004.-Academic career:...

. Of the twenty districts of the country, Pedro Passos Coelho's party won seventeen, including Lisbon, Porto
Porto District
The District of Porto , sometimes Oporto in English, is located on the north-west coast of Portugal. The district capital is the city of Porto, the second largest city in the country...

, Faro and the Azores
Azores
The Archipelago of the Azores is composed of nine volcanic islands situated in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean, and is located about west from Lisbon and about east from the east coast of North America. The islands, and their economic exclusion zone, form the Autonomous Region of the...

, which has been governed by the Socialists since 1996.

The defeat of the PS was severe, as they lost in eleven districts and fell below 30% of the votes cast, a first since the election of 1991. This heavy defeat led José Sócrates to resign as General Secretary of the party on election night. However, it was not the Socialists' worst result, which dated back to 1987 when they polled 30 points behind the Social Democrats. The Socialists were also beaten in José Sócrates district, Castelo Branco, that he dominated since 1995.

For the far-left parties, the result was mixed. On one hand, the Left Bloc faced a huge setback, losing half of its MPs and regaining its 2005 numbers, where they obtained however, one more percentage point in a context of greater participation. As a whole, the Portuguese left trails by ten points in support to the center-right, the biggest lead since the absolute majority of the Social Democrat Aníbal Cavaco Silva in the 1990s.

Voter turnout
Voter turnout
Voter turnout is the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an election . After increasing for many decades, there has been a trend of decreasing voter turnout in most established democracies since the 1960s...

 was the lowest in Portuguese election history, with just 58% of the electorate casting their ballot on election day.

Background

When the government had tried to introduce a Stability and Growth Pact
Stability and Growth Pact
The Stability and Growth Pact is an agreement among the 27 Member states of the European Union that take part in the Eurozone, to facilitate and maintain the stability of the Economic and Monetary Union...

 without consultation with the president
President of Portugal
Portugal has been a republic since 1910, and since that time the head of state has been the president, whose official title is President of the Portuguese Republic ....

 and the parliament, the opposition parties called for a resolution vote. The vote came over proposed spending cuts and tax hikes that had been demanded by the EU to offer a bailout over Portugal's debt levels amidst the European sovereign debt crisis. PM Jose Socrates had previously said that if the measure failed he would not be able to govern anymore. All five opposition parties combined to vote down the measure. With all other parties voting against the government, the Socialist Party was unable to avoid defeat as it only had 97 MPs
Member of Parliament
A Member of Parliament is a representative of the voters to a :parliament. In many countries with bicameral parliaments, the term applies specifically to members of the lower house, as upper houses often have a different title, such as senate, and thus also have different titles for its members,...

 in the 230-seat parliament. Following the vote in parliament on the evening of 23 March, Socrates stepped down, reiterating that he could no longer govern the country: "Today every opposition party rejected the measures proposed by the government to prevent that Portugal resort to external aid. The opposition removed from the government the conditions to govern. As a result I have tendered my resignation to the president." The main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD)
Social Democratic Party (Portugal)
The Social Democratic Party , is a centre-right liberal conservative political party in Portugal. It is commonly known by its initials, PSD; on ballot papers, its initials appear as PPD/PSD, with the first three letters coming from the party's original name, Democratic People's Party...

, tipped the scales against the government by voting against the package, despite having abstained when voting previous austerity measures, thus allowing them to pass.

Following the vote, European markets read the move as making a possible 50–70 billion euro
Euro
The euro is the official currency of the eurozone: 17 of the 27 member states of the European Union. It is also the currency used by the Institutions of the European Union. The eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg,...

 bailout "inevitable" the day before a European Union
European Union
The European Union is an economic and political union of 27 independent member states which are located primarily in Europe. The EU traces its origins from the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community , formed by six countries in 1958...

 summit concerning the debt crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel
Angela Merkel
Angela Dorothea Merkel is the current Chancellor of Germany . Merkel, elected to the Bundestag from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, has been the chairwoman of the Christian Democratic Union since 2000, and chairwoman of the CDU-CSU parliamentary coalition from 2002 to 2005.From 2005 to 2009 she led a...

 praised Socrates for his "far-reaching" austerity bill in parliament. Portuguese two-year bond yields also increased to the most since 1999 on speculation of possible further credit downgrades.

President Anibal Cavaco Silva
Aníbal Cavaco Silva
Aníbal António Cavaco Silva, GCC , is the President of Portugal. He won the Portuguese presidential election on 22 January 2006 and was re-elected on 23 January 2011, for a second five-year term. Cavaco Silva was sworn in on 9 March 2006....

 then met with the various political parties to either resolve the crisis, or dissolve the parliament and call an early election, which, according to the Portuguese Constitution, can be held no sooner than 55 days after the announcement. On 1 April, the president set 5 June as the date for an early election, deeming it the only way to create conditions for a new government.

Following the call for an election, Socrates finally did make a request to the EU for a bailout on 6 April as the country's sovereign bond yield hit a record high; Portugal became the third EU state after Greece and Ireland, respectively, to request an EU bailout. Socrates said that "I tried everything but we came to a moment that not taking this decision would bring risks we can’t afford. The Social Democrats' Pedro Passos Coelho said that his party would support the aid request; the International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund is an organization of 187 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world...

 also added that it was ready to support assistance that Portugal requested. Socrates said in a nationwide television address that his caretaker government had formally requested a bailout as it was "inevitable" and that "I tried everything, but in conscience we have reached a moment when not taking this decision would imply risks that the country should not take." His Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos
Fernando Teixeira dos Santos
Fernando Teixeira dos Santos , GOIH is a Portuguese economist and professor. He was Minister of Finance in the Portuguese Government led by José Sócrates .-Career:...

 also said that Portugal would need the European Union support to avoid defaulting on its debt. In response, the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn
Olli Rehn
Olli Ilmari Rehn is a Finnish politician, currently serving as European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs. He had previously served as Commissioner for Enlargement...

 said the action was "a responsible move" and that the specific amount of aid money would soon be determined. European Union officials suggested that they hoped a deal would be finalised by the middle of May with an expected bailout of around 80 billion euros.

Electoral system

The Parliament of the Portuguese Republic consists of a single chamber, the Assembly of the Republic
Assembly of the Republic
The Assembly of the Republic is the Portuguese parliament. It is located in a historical building in Lisbon, referred to as Palácio de São Bento, the site of an old Benedictine monastery...

, composed of 230 members directly elected by universal adult suffrage for a maximum term of four years. Assembly members represent the entire country, rather than the constituencies in which they were elected. Governments require majority support in the Assembly in order to remain in office.

Each one of Portugal's eighteen administrative districts
Districts of Portugal
Portugal is divided into 18 districts in mainland Portugal, plus two autonomous regions .The Portuguese Constitution of 1976 specifies that Portugal have only, as first level divisions, the autonomous regions and the administrative regions...

, as well as each one of the country's two autonomous regions - the Azores
Azores
The Archipelago of the Azores is composed of nine volcanic islands situated in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean, and is located about west from Lisbon and about east from the east coast of North America. The islands, and their economic exclusion zone, form the Autonomous Region of the...

 and Madeira
Madeira
Madeira is a Portuguese archipelago that lies between and , just under 400 km north of Tenerife, Canary Islands, in the north Atlantic Ocean and an outermost region of the European Union...

 - is an electoral constituency. Portuguese voters residing outside the national territory are grouped into two electoral constituencies - Europe and the rest of the world - each one of which elects two Assembly members. The remaining 226 seats are allocated among the national territory constituencies in proportion to their number of registered electors.

Political parties and party coalitions may present lists of candidates. The lists are closed, so electors may not choose individual candidates in or alter the order of such lists. Electors cast a ballot for a single list. The seats in each constituency are apportioned according to the largest average method of proportional representation (PR)
D'Hondt method
The d'Hondt method is a highest averages method for allocating seats in party-list proportional representation. The method described is named after Belgian mathematician Victor D'Hondt who described it in 1878...

, conceived by the Belgian mathematician Victor d'Hondt
Victor D'Hondt
Victor D’Hondt was a Belgian lawyer, salesman, jurist of civil law at Ghent University, and mathematician. He devised a procedure, the D'Hondt method, which he first described in 1878, for allocating seats to candidates in party-list proportional representation elections...

 in 1899. Although there is no statutory threshold for participation in the allocation of Assembly seats, the application of the d'Hondt method
D'Hondt method
The d'Hondt method is a highest averages method for allocating seats in party-list proportional representation. The method described is named after Belgian mathematician Victor D'Hondt who described it in 1878...

 introduces a de facto threshold at the constituency level.

Parties

The parties that partook in the election, and their leaders, were:
  • Left Bloc (BE), Francisco Louçã
    Francisco Louçã
    Francisco Anacleto Louçã is a Portuguese economist and politician, first elected in 1999.. He is the son of António Seixas Louçã, who commanded a ship on the Tagus River during the Carnation Revolution, and wife Noémia da Rocha Neves Anacleto , a lawyer.Louçã was an active opponent of the...

  • Unitarian Democratic Coalition
    Unitarian Democratic Coalition
    The Democratic Unity Coalition is an electoral and political coalition between the Portuguese Communist Party and the Ecologist Party "The Greens"...

     (CDU), Jerónimo de Sousa
    Jerónimo de Sousa
    Jerónimo Carvalho de Sousa is the General Secretary of the Portuguese Communist Party since the 17th Congress of the Party in November 2004....

  • Socialist Party
    Socialist Party (Portugal)
    The Socialist Party , abbreviated to PS, is a social-democratic political party in Portugal. It was founded on 19 April 1973 in the German city of Bad Münstereifel, by militants from Portuguese Socialist Action ....

     (PS), José Sócrates
    José Sócrates
    José Sócrates Carvalho Pinto de Sousa, GCIH , commonly known by José Sócrates , is a Portuguese politician who was the Prime Minister of Portugal from 12 March 2005 to 21 June 2011....

  • Social Democratic Party
    Social Democratic Party (Portugal)
    The Social Democratic Party , is a centre-right liberal conservative political party in Portugal. It is commonly known by its initials, PSD; on ballot papers, its initials appear as PPD/PSD, with the first three letters coming from the party's original name, Democratic People's Party...

     (PSD), Pedro Passos Coelho
    Pedro Passos Coelho
    Pedro Manuel Mamede Passos Coelho , is Prime Minister of Portugal. Passos Coelho started very early in politics, becoming the national leader of the youth branch of the Social Democratic Party...

  • People's Party (PP), Paulo Portas
    Paulo Portas
    Paulo de Sacadura Cabral Portas , commonly known just by Paulo Portas , is a Portuguese politician, party leader of the Democratic and Social Centre – People's Party , a member of the Portuguese Parliament and former Portuguese minister of State, National Defense and Sea Affairs.In 2011, after he...



Pedro Passos Coelho, leader of the Social Democratic Party, was nominated Prime Minister and formed a coalition government with the People's Party.

Concurrent issues

Popular anger arose during the electoral process leading to mass protests
2011 Portuguese protests
The 2011 March Portuguese protests, also referred to as the Geração à Rasca protests or Movimento 12 de Março was a series of protests in over 10 cities of Portugal over the economic crisis in Portugal....

 in multiple cities around the country.

EU bailout

In what was read as external intereference during the campaign the EU's Olli Rehn said Portugal must make even stronger budget cuts than the measures that failed in parliament leading to the fall of the government. EU Finance Ministers said that about 80 billion euros could be available by mid-May should the austerity measures it demanded pass. Rehn said that the measures would be "a starting point. It is indeed essential in Portugal to reach a cross-party agreement ensuring that such a programme can be adopted [by] May."

On 16 May, the EU endorsed a 78-billion euro joint package with the IMF.

Finnish influence
Facing an election
Finnish parliamentary election, 2011
An election to the Eduskunta was held on 17 April 2011 after the termination of the previous parliamentary term. Advance voting, which included voting by Finnish expatriates, was held between 6 and 12 April with a turnout of 31.2%....

 of his own, Finnish Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen
Jyrki Katainen
Jyrki Tapani Katainen is the Prime Minister of Finland and chairman of the country's largest party, the National Coalition Party.-Career:...

 said that Portugal's deficit-reduction steps must be even stronger than what was proposed in parliament prior to the election call. "The package must be really strict because otherwise it doesn't make any sense. The package must be harder and more comprehensive than the one the parliament voted against." The surge in popularity of the True Finns
True Finns
True Finns or The Finns is a populist and nationalist political party in Finland, founded in 1995 following the dissolution of the Finnish Rural Party. The head of the movement is Timo Soini. In the 2011 Finnish parliamentary election, The party won 19.1% of votes, becoming the third largest party...

 prior to the election could threaten a bailout for Portugal. Finland’s support for the bailout was important because it would need unanimous support to pass.

Following a dramatic showing, stronger than opinion polls predicted, by the True Finns, and amid government formation talks, a bailout for Portugal was thrown into doubt. This was despite Katainen's pro-bailout National Coalition Party winning more seats than any other party (44 out of 200).

Economic outlook

On 5 April, Moody's cut Portugal's debt grade for the second in weeks citing its reason for doing so as "driven primarily by increased political, budgetary and economic uncertainty, which increase the risk that the government will be unable to achieve [its] ambitious deficit reduction targets." Its debt rating was decreased from A3 to Baa1, which was three grades above junk bond status.

IMF bailout

On 20 May, the IMF approved a €26 billion bailout for Portugal as part of joint support mechanisms with the EU. Of the total €6.1 billion would be made available immediately.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-20/imf-board-approves-36-8-billion-loan-to-portugal.html

Result

Anti-incumbency
Anti-incumbency
An anti-incumbent vote is one exercised against elected officials currently in power. It allows the voters to register their discontent with sitting government officials, particularly when protesting against certain actions taken by the government or the elected officials in question.-See...

 led to the defeat of the ruling party, even more than polls predicted. Pedro Passos Coelho of the Social Democratic Party is the Prime Minister-designate.

Coalition government

The XIX Constitutional Government of Portugal was formed based on the legislative elections results, as the PSD and CDS-PP won enough seats to form a majority. President Aníbal Cavaco Silva
Aníbal Cavaco Silva
Aníbal António Cavaco Silva, GCC , is the President of Portugal. He won the Portuguese presidential election on 22 January 2006 and was re-elected on 23 January 2011, for a second five-year term. Cavaco Silva was sworn in on 9 March 2006....

 called on 6 June Pedro Passos Coelho to form government with "majority support in parliament" and asked for urgency in their formation to "develop immediate measures to propose a governance solution which has a parliamentary majority of support available and consistent".

Given the election results, and the impossibility of forming a majority government with parliamentary support from a single party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) led by Pedro Passos Coelho established an agreement for a majority government, signed on 16 June 2011, with the People's Party led by Paulo Portas
Paulo Portas
Paulo de Sacadura Cabral Portas , commonly known just by Paulo Portas , is a Portuguese politician, party leader of the Democratic and Social Centre – People's Party , a member of the Portuguese Parliament and former Portuguese minister of State, National Defense and Sea Affairs.In 2011, after he...

, after a few days of trading.

The XIX Constitutional Government took office on June 21, 2011.

External links

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