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Fred Harrison (author)
Encyclopedia
Fred Harrison is a British
author, economic commentator and corporate policy advisor, notable for his stances on land reform
and belief that an over reliance on land, property and mortgage
weakens economic structures and makes companies vulnerable to economic collapse
. He is acknowledged as having predicted the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, laying it out in his books as early as 1997.
and educated in England
, Germany
and Singapore
. After studying at Ruskin College, Oxford
he graduated from University College Oxford with a BA (Hons) and read for his MSc
at University of London
. Harrison lives in London with his wife, Rita. They have one daughter, Nina Harrison.
, he moved to The Camberley News as sub-editor, working there for a year before moving to The People newspaper, where he became chief reporter.
Most of his stories involved investigating criminal and anti-social behaviour
, such as stories about speedway riders buying championship titles, but his most famous and intricate assignment was a long campaign of reports, interviews and interaction with police to convince them to reopen the case on the serial child killings that were called the Moors murders
. Due to his efforts, and the cooperation of one of the perpetrators, he was successful in having other disappearances checked which led to the recovery of an additional body.
, the Centre for Incentive Taxation, in 1987, as his theories on economic incentives and their relationship to the economy as a whole developed. He also wrote a series of books at this time covering economic theory.
n government in developing economic policy. He spent 10 years in Russia advising their Federal Parliament (Duma) and local authorities on property tax
reform and establishment of land markets. He conducted long-range economic studies, attempting to steer economic policy towards investment in schools, science and healthcare. He was the organizer of the Duma's Land Policy Congress and conducted several hearings and studies commissioned by a wide range of Russian authorities. In 2002 he ended his work in Russia when it became apparent that the trend of investment from resource rents was not into the ventures he had recommended but instead into what he termed conspicuous consumption, such as buying western real estate and football clubs. He wrote "The Silver Bullet" as a response to his disaffection for the choices of the Russian Duma
on these and other issues.
and therefore regards himself as a Georgist
.
His Georgist influences can be traced in his work. After his sojourn in Russia, he returned to his work in England. He had already become the Research Director of the Land Research Trust, London, in 1998 and worked as a corporate business advisor, as well as giving lectures on property and tax policy
. In 2008 he co-founded Motherlode, a communication company based in London. He has been widely acclaimed as the only commentator to get the timing of the 2007 recession correct. Notably, he warned Gordon Brown
as far back as 1997 that the UK economy would hit the peak of the cycle in 2007 – and turn down into a depression
in 2010. Since then, his main focus in both writing and lecturing has been to warn of what he considers to be the dangers of using land and real estate
as the primary drivers of economic growth
. His work links economic policy
to social reform. Harrison's macro-economic analysis is based on the theory that business conforms to a pattern of 18-year cycles, determined by the unique characteristics of the land market. According to Harrison, economists erroneously "assume that the health of the property market depends upon the condition of the rest of the economy. In fact ... property is the key factor that shapes the business cycle, not the other way around."
In 2009, Dirk Bezemer, a Professor of Economics at the University of Groningen
in the Netherlands, pointed out that Fred Harrison was the first and earliest economist to have predicted the global financial crisis, as far back as 1997, well before other economists such as Steve Keen
, Robert Shiller
, Peter Schiff
, or Nouriel Roubini
.
would moderate and that any talk of a "housing bubble" was both premature and indicated a false understanding of debt economics. Harrison warned that there would be a two-year explosive growth in prices and property speculation before the market imploded in the winter of 2007/08 with heavy damage to the financial markets. As shown by the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis
, he was essentially correct on all points. His prediction that the problems with debt economics and scaling would contribute to a worldwide economic collapse in 2010 has not, as of mid-2009, been fully borne out, but there has been a major recession as a result of the mortgage crisis.
Both in the UK and worldwide, until 2008 most media commentators and economic theorists dubbed him the 'Prophet of Doom' and his pragmatic approach was rebuffed in favour of mainstream assertions that the "new economy" was destined to sustain growth. Some niche media outlets agreed with his thesis and continued to publish his work. His books are widely distributed. With the collapse of the US and UK banks in 2008, some elements of the media began to reconsider his ideas, and he is now engaged primarily in making documentaries to explain and quantify his theories.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...
author, economic commentator and corporate policy advisor, notable for his stances on land reform
Land reform
[Image:Jakarta farmers protest23.jpg|300px|thumb|right|Farmers protesting for Land Reform in Indonesia]Land reform involves the changing of laws, regulations or customs regarding land ownership. Land reform may consist of a government-initiated or government-backed property redistribution,...
and belief that an over reliance on land, property and mortgage
Mortgage loan
A mortgage loan is a loan secured by real property through the use of a mortgage note which evidences the existence of the loan and the encumbrance of that realty through the granting of a mortgage which secures the loan...
weakens economic structures and makes companies vulnerable to economic collapse
Economic collapse
There is no precise definition of an economic collapse. While some might consider a a severe, prolonged depression with high bankruptcy rates and high unemployment an economic collapse, others would additionally look for a breakdown in normal commerce, such as hyperinfalation, or even a sharp...
. He is acknowledged as having predicted the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, laying it out in his books as early as 1997.
Early life
He was born in CyprusCyprus
Cyprus , officially the Republic of Cyprus , is a Eurasian island country, member of the European Union, in the Eastern Mediterranean, east of Greece, south of Turkey, west of Syria and north of Egypt. It is the third largest island in the Mediterranean Sea.The earliest known human activity on the...
and educated in England
England
England is a country that is part of the United Kingdom. It shares land borders with Scotland to the north and Wales to the west; the Irish Sea is to the north west, the Celtic Sea to the south west, with the North Sea to the east and the English Channel to the south separating it from continental...
, Germany
Germany
Germany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...
and Singapore
Singapore
Singapore , officially the Republic of Singapore, is a Southeast Asian city-state off the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula, north of the equator. An island country made up of 63 islands, it is separated from Malaysia by the Straits of Johor to its north and from Indonesia's Riau Islands by the...
. After studying at Ruskin College, Oxford
Ruskin College, Oxford
Ruskin College is an independent educational institution in Oxford, England. It is named after the essayist and social critic John Ruskin and specialises in providing educational opportunities for adults with few or no qualifications...
he graduated from University College Oxford with a BA (Hons) and read for his MSc
MSC
- Computers:* Mario Strikers Charged* Microsoft Common Console Document, file for the Microsoft Management Console* Microelectronics Support Centre* Microsoft Corporation* MIDI Show Control* Message Sequence Chart...
at University of London
University of London
-20th century:Shortly after 6 Burlington Gardens was vacated, the University went through a period of rapid expansion. Bedford College, Royal Holloway and the London School of Economics all joined in 1900, Regent's Park College, which had affiliated in 1841 became an official divinity school of the...
. Harrison lives in London with his wife, Rita. They have one daughter, Nina Harrison.
Career in Journalism
Fred Harrison's first career was in newspaper journalism, working at papers such as the Wellington Journal and Shrewsbury News, in Shropshire. After a stint in news agenciesNews agency
A news agency is an organization of journalists established to supply news reports to news organizations: newspapers, magazines, and radio and television broadcasters. Such an agency may also be referred to as a wire service, newswire or news service.-History:The oldest news agency is Agence...
, he moved to The Camberley News as sub-editor, working there for a year before moving to The People newspaper, where he became chief reporter.
Most of his stories involved investigating criminal and anti-social behaviour
Anti-social behaviour
Anti-social behaviour is behaviour that lacks consideration for others and that may cause damage to society, whether intentionally or through negligence, as opposed to pro-social behaviour, behaviour that helps or benefits society...
, such as stories about speedway riders buying championship titles, but his most famous and intricate assignment was a long campaign of reports, interviews and interaction with police to convince them to reopen the case on the serial child killings that were called the Moors murders
Moors murders
The Moors murders were carried out by Ian Brady and Myra Hindley between July 1963 and October 1965, in and around what is now Greater Manchester, England. The victims were five children aged between 10 and 17—Pauline Reade, John Kilbride, Keith Bennett, Lesley Ann Downey and Edward Evans—at least...
. Due to his efforts, and the cooperation of one of the perpetrators, he was successful in having other disappearances checked which led to the recovery of an additional body.
Beginnings in Economics
Harrison was appointed Director of a London think-tankThink tank
A think tank is an organization that conducts research and engages in advocacy in areas such as social policy, political strategy, economics, military, and technology issues. Most think tanks are non-profit organizations, which some countries such as the United States and Canada provide with tax...
, the Centre for Incentive Taxation, in 1987, as his theories on economic incentives and their relationship to the economy as a whole developed. He also wrote a series of books at this time covering economic theory.
Economic Advisor to Russia
With the fall of the USSR, Fred Harrison took an opportunity to work with the RussiaRussia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
n government in developing economic policy. He spent 10 years in Russia advising their Federal Parliament (Duma) and local authorities on property tax
Property tax
A property tax is an ad valorem levy on the value of property that the owner is required to pay. The tax is levied by the governing authority of the jurisdiction in which the property is located; it may be paid to a national government, a federated state or a municipality...
reform and establishment of land markets. He conducted long-range economic studies, attempting to steer economic policy towards investment in schools, science and healthcare. He was the organizer of the Duma's Land Policy Congress and conducted several hearings and studies commissioned by a wide range of Russian authorities. In 2002 he ended his work in Russia when it became apparent that the trend of investment from resource rents was not into the ventures he had recommended but instead into what he termed conspicuous consumption, such as buying western real estate and football clubs. He wrote "The Silver Bullet" as a response to his disaffection for the choices of the Russian Duma
State Duma
The State Duma , common abbreviation: Госду́ма ) in the Russian Federation is the lower house of the Federal Assembly of Russia , the upper house being the Federation Council of Russia. The Duma headquarters is located in central Moscow, a few steps from Manege Square. Its members are referred to...
on these and other issues.
Economist, media figure, and author
Harrison adheres to and is inspired by the writings of American political economist, Henry GeorgeHenry George
Henry George was an American writer, politician and political economist, who was the most influential proponent of the land value tax, also known as the "single tax" on land...
and therefore regards himself as a Georgist
Georgism
Georgism is an economic philosophy and ideology that holds that people own what they create, but that things found in nature, most importantly land, belong equally to all...
.
His Georgist influences can be traced in his work. After his sojourn in Russia, he returned to his work in England. He had already become the Research Director of the Land Research Trust, London, in 1998 and worked as a corporate business advisor, as well as giving lectures on property and tax policy
Tax policy
Tax policy is the government's approach to taxation, both from the practical and normative side of the question.-Philosophy:Policymakers debate the nature of the tax structure they plan to implement and how they might affect individuals and businesses .The reason for such foitution effect]],...
. In 2008 he co-founded Motherlode, a communication company based in London. He has been widely acclaimed as the only commentator to get the timing of the 2007 recession correct. Notably, he warned Gordon Brown
Gordon Brown
James Gordon Brown is a British Labour Party politician who was the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Labour Party from 2007 until 2010. He previously served as Chancellor of the Exchequer in the Labour Government from 1997 to 2007...
as far back as 1997 that the UK economy would hit the peak of the cycle in 2007 – and turn down into a depression
Depression (economics)
In economics, a depression is a sustained, long-term downturn in economic activity in one or more economies. It is a more severe downturn than a recession, which is seen by some economists as part of the modern business cycle....
in 2010. Since then, his main focus in both writing and lecturing has been to warn of what he considers to be the dangers of using land and real estate
Real estate
In general use, esp. North American, 'real estate' is taken to mean "Property consisting of land and the buildings on it, along with its natural resources such as crops, minerals, or water; immovable property of this nature; an interest vested in this; an item of real property; buildings or...
as the primary drivers of economic growth
Economic growth
In economics, economic growth is defined as the increasing capacity of the economy to satisfy the wants of goods and services of the members of society. Economic growth is enabled by increases in productivity, which lowers the inputs for a given amount of output. Lowered costs increase demand...
. His work links economic policy
Economic policy
Economic policy refers to the actions that governments take in the economic field. It covers the systems for setting interest rates and government budget as well as the labor market, national ownership, and many other areas of government interventions into the economy.Such policies are often...
to social reform. Harrison's macro-economic analysis is based on the theory that business conforms to a pattern of 18-year cycles, determined by the unique characteristics of the land market. According to Harrison, economists erroneously "assume that the health of the property market depends upon the condition of the rest of the economy. In fact ... property is the key factor that shapes the business cycle, not the other way around."
In 2009, Dirk Bezemer, a Professor of Economics at the University of Groningen
University of Groningen
The University of Groningen , located in the city of Groningen, was founded in 1614. It is one of the oldest universities in the Netherlands as well as one of its largest. Since its inception more than 100,000 students have graduated...
in the Netherlands, pointed out that Fred Harrison was the first and earliest economist to have predicted the global financial crisis, as far back as 1997, well before other economists such as Steve Keen
Steve Keen
Steve Keen is a Professor in economics and finance at the University of Western Sydney. He classes himself as a post-Keynesian, criticizing both modern neoclassical economics and Marxian economics as inconsistent, unscientific and empirically unsupported...
, Robert Shiller
Robert Shiller
Robert James "Bob" Shiller is an American economist, academic, and best-selling author. He currently serves as the Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics at Yale University and is a Fellow at the Yale International Center for Finance, Yale School of Management...
, Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff
Peter David Schiff is an American investment broker, author and financial commentator. Schiff is CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc., a broker-dealer based in Westport, Connecticut and CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, LLC, a gold and silver dealer based in New York...
, or Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He claims to have predicted both the collapse of the United States housing market and the worldwide recession which started in 2008. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics, an economic...
.
In the media
Harrison has been very active in the UK media, with dozens of newspaper and magazine articles, and many TV and radio interviews. Since 2005, several commentators have agreed that his predictions have consistently proved correct. As an example, in 2005 there was an almost unanimous view that the rise in house pricesReal estate pricing
Real estate pricing deals with the valuation of real estate and all the standard methods of determining the price of fixed assets apply....
would moderate and that any talk of a "housing bubble" was both premature and indicated a false understanding of debt economics. Harrison warned that there would be a two-year explosive growth in prices and property speculation before the market imploded in the winter of 2007/08 with heavy damage to the financial markets. As shown by the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis
Subprime mortgage crisis
The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was one of the first indicators of the late-2000s financial crisis, characterized by a rise in subprime mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, and the resulting decline of securities backed by said mortgages....
, he was essentially correct on all points. His prediction that the problems with debt economics and scaling would contribute to a worldwide economic collapse in 2010 has not, as of mid-2009, been fully borne out, but there has been a major recession as a result of the mortgage crisis.
Both in the UK and worldwide, until 2008 most media commentators and economic theorists dubbed him the 'Prophet of Doom' and his pragmatic approach was rebuffed in favour of mainstream assertions that the "new economy" was destined to sustain growth. Some niche media outlets agreed with his thesis and continued to publish his work. His books are widely distributed. With the collapse of the US and UK banks in 2008, some elements of the media began to reconsider his ideas, and he is now engaged primarily in making documentaries to explain and quantify his theories.