Electoral-vote.com
Encyclopedia
Electoral-Vote.com is the website of computer scientist Andrew S. Tanenbaum
. The site's primary content is poll analysis to project the outcome of U.S. elections. The site also includes commentary on related news stories. Well known for its color-coded electoral map of the United States, the site was created during the lead-up to the 2004 U.S. Presidential election to predict the winner. The site tries to improve on national polls usually reported in the media by predicting which way each state's electoral vote will go based on statewide polls. U.S. presidents are in fact elected by separate popular elections in each state, rather than direct popular vote of the entire country. The winner of each election receives the state's electoral votes equal to its members of Congress (see Electoral College for details). EV.com's method thus simulates the actual process. Updated throughout the campaign, visitors can see who is "ahead" at any time.
Through most of the 2004 campaign Tanenbaum kept his identity a secret only acknowledging that he personally preferred John Kerry
. Tanenbaum, a libertarian who is a member of Democrats Abroad
, and generally supports Democratic candidates for office, revealed his identity on November 1, 2004, as well as stating his reasons and qualifications for running the website.
During the months leading up to the 2004 U.S. Presidential election, the site was updated daily to reflect new state polls. The site was immensely popular, attracting nearly 700,000 daily visitors as election day neared and was the most popular election site in the country, in the top 1,000 Web sites in the world, and in the top 10 blogs in the world.
The main page consisted of a map of the United States with the individual states colored varying degrees of red or blue, based on the polls for that state. For instance, Illinois
, a state that was polling strongly for Democrat John Kerry
was colored dark blue, whereas Michigan
where Kerry's lead polled by a small margin was colored light blue. Analogously, Texas
was dark red during the whole campaign, indicating Bush's strong lead there. All of the polling data were provided in multiple formats, including HTML
, Excel
, and .csv for downloading. Other features included historical data on previous elections, charts and animations showing the polls over the course of time, cartograms and links to hundreds of other pages and external Websites with tables, charts, graphs, and other election data and information.
The main algorithm just used the most recent poll(s) in every state. If two polls came out on the same day, they were averaged. This algorithm used all published polls, including those by partisan pollsters such as Strategic Vision (R) and Hart Research (D). A second algorithm used only nonpartisan polls and averaged all polls during the past three days. A third algorithm used historical data to predict how undecided voters would break. Maps for each of the algorithms were given every day, but the first one got most of the publicity since it was on the main page.
The site's final tracking using algorithm 1 posted on Election Day, November 2 gave 262 electoral votes to John Kerry
and 261 to George W. Bush
, with 15 tossups. The
second algorithm (averaging 3 days worth of nonpartisan polls) gave Kerry 245 and Bush 278 with
15 tossups. The third algorithm (predicting the undecideds) predicted 281 for Kerry and 257 for Bush.
The actual vote gave Kerry 252 to Bush's 286. Clearly using nonpartisan polls and averaging a few days worth of polls did best. This algorithm got 47 states plus D.C. right, 1 state (Iowa) wrong, and said New Mexico and Wisconsin were too close to call. The most-recent-poll wins algorithm got 46 right, 4 wrong, and one too close to call.
. Shortly thereafter, the House of Representatives was added. The map on the site's front page displayed polling for the 2006 Senate races. For House
races, the site featured a "Hot House Races" page with links to Wikipedia
articles on the candidates, links to the candidates' official websites, and notes on the races. The relatively small number of House election polls as well as 2004's House vote totals were used to project the makeup of the House on the site's front page. The site correctly predicted the winners in all 33 Senate races.
Polling data was presented daily on the likely outcome of the primaries as well as upcoming trends.
The site's electoral vote prediction for the 2008 election was very close to the actual outcome, correctly projecting the winner of every state except for Indiana
, and showing Missouri
(won by John McCain
by only 0.13% of the vote) as a pure tossup. The senate projection was also close to the actual outcome, predicting all of the decided states correctly, and showing a Democratic pickup in Alaska and the Republican Senator Norm Coleman
holding his seat in Minnesota. The Senate results of the Minnesota election
was so close that it was contested until the state supreme court ruled in favor of Al Franken
on June 30, 2009.
Andrew S. Tanenbaum
Andrew Stuart "Andy" Tanenbaum is a professor of computer science at the Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam in the Netherlands. He is best known as the author of MINIX, a free Unix-like operating system for teaching purposes, and for his computer science textbooks, regarded as standard texts in the...
. The site's primary content is poll analysis to project the outcome of U.S. elections. The site also includes commentary on related news stories. Well known for its color-coded electoral map of the United States, the site was created during the lead-up to the 2004 U.S. Presidential election to predict the winner. The site tries to improve on national polls usually reported in the media by predicting which way each state's electoral vote will go based on statewide polls. U.S. presidents are in fact elected by separate popular elections in each state, rather than direct popular vote of the entire country. The winner of each election receives the state's electoral votes equal to its members of Congress (see Electoral College for details). EV.com's method thus simulates the actual process. Updated throughout the campaign, visitors can see who is "ahead" at any time.
Through most of the 2004 campaign Tanenbaum kept his identity a secret only acknowledging that he personally preferred John Kerry
John Kerry
John Forbes Kerry is the senior United States Senator from Massachusetts, the 10th most senior U.S. Senator and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2004 presidential election, but lost to former President George W...
. Tanenbaum, a libertarian who is a member of Democrats Abroad
Democrats Abroad
Democrats Abroad is the official organization of the Democratic Party for United States citizens living permanently or temporarily abroad. The organization is given state-level recognition by the Democratic National Committee....
, and generally supports Democratic candidates for office, revealed his identity on November 1, 2004, as well as stating his reasons and qualifications for running the website.
2004 Presidential election
The site began operating on May 24, 2004 with a simple map and a few links to other pages. The information available grew over time, though.During the months leading up to the 2004 U.S. Presidential election, the site was updated daily to reflect new state polls. The site was immensely popular, attracting nearly 700,000 daily visitors as election day neared and was the most popular election site in the country, in the top 1,000 Web sites in the world, and in the top 10 blogs in the world.
The main page consisted of a map of the United States with the individual states colored varying degrees of red or blue, based on the polls for that state. For instance, Illinois
Illinois
Illinois is the fifth-most populous state of the United States of America, and is often noted for being a microcosm of the entire country. With Chicago in the northeast, small industrial cities and great agricultural productivity in central and northern Illinois, and natural resources like coal,...
, a state that was polling strongly for Democrat John Kerry
John Kerry
John Forbes Kerry is the senior United States Senator from Massachusetts, the 10th most senior U.S. Senator and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2004 presidential election, but lost to former President George W...
was colored dark blue, whereas Michigan
Michigan
Michigan is a U.S. state located in the Great Lakes Region of the United States of America. The name Michigan is the French form of the Ojibwa word mishigamaa, meaning "large water" or "large lake"....
where Kerry's lead polled by a small margin was colored light blue. Analogously, Texas
Texas
Texas is the second largest U.S. state by both area and population, and the largest state by area in the contiguous United States.The name, based on the Caddo word "Tejas" meaning "friends" or "allies", was applied by the Spanish to the Caddo themselves and to the region of their settlement in...
was dark red during the whole campaign, indicating Bush's strong lead there. All of the polling data were provided in multiple formats, including HTML
HTML
HyperText Markup Language is the predominant markup language for web pages. HTML elements are the basic building-blocks of webpages....
, Excel
Microsoft Excel
Microsoft Excel is a proprietary commercial spreadsheet application written and distributed by Microsoft for Microsoft Windows and Mac OS X. It features calculation, graphing tools, pivot tables, and a macro programming language called Visual Basic for Applications...
, and .csv for downloading. Other features included historical data on previous elections, charts and animations showing the polls over the course of time, cartograms and links to hundreds of other pages and external Websites with tables, charts, graphs, and other election data and information.
The main algorithm just used the most recent poll(s) in every state. If two polls came out on the same day, they were averaged. This algorithm used all published polls, including those by partisan pollsters such as Strategic Vision (R) and Hart Research (D). A second algorithm used only nonpartisan polls and averaged all polls during the past three days. A third algorithm used historical data to predict how undecided voters would break. Maps for each of the algorithms were given every day, but the first one got most of the publicity since it was on the main page.
The site's final tracking using algorithm 1 posted on Election Day, November 2 gave 262 electoral votes to John Kerry
John Kerry
John Forbes Kerry is the senior United States Senator from Massachusetts, the 10th most senior U.S. Senator and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2004 presidential election, but lost to former President George W...
and 261 to George W. Bush
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
, with 15 tossups. The
second algorithm (averaging 3 days worth of nonpartisan polls) gave Kerry 245 and Bush 278 with
15 tossups. The third algorithm (predicting the undecideds) predicted 281 for Kerry and 257 for Bush.
The actual vote gave Kerry 252 to Bush's 286. Clearly using nonpartisan polls and averaging a few days worth of polls did best. This algorithm got 47 states plus D.C. right, 1 state (Iowa) wrong, and said New Mexico and Wisconsin were too close to call. The most-recent-poll wins algorithm got 46 right, 4 wrong, and one too close to call.
2006 Midterm election
On September 6, 2006, the site began tracking the 2006 Congressional elections in the SenateUnited States Senate
The United States Senate is the upper house of the bicameral legislature of the United States, and together with the United States House of Representatives comprises the United States Congress. The composition and powers of the Senate are established in Article One of the U.S. Constitution. Each...
. Shortly thereafter, the House of Representatives was added. The map on the site's front page displayed polling for the 2006 Senate races. For House
United States House of Representatives
The United States House of Representatives is one of the two Houses of the United States Congress, the bicameral legislature which also includes the Senate.The composition and powers of the House are established in Article One of the Constitution...
races, the site featured a "Hot House Races" page with links to Wikipedia
Wikipedia
Wikipedia is a free, web-based, collaborative, multilingual encyclopedia project supported by the non-profit Wikimedia Foundation. Its 20 million articles have been written collaboratively by volunteers around the world. Almost all of its articles can be edited by anyone with access to the site,...
articles on the candidates, links to the candidates' official websites, and notes on the races. The relatively small number of House election polls as well as 2004's House vote totals were used to project the makeup of the House on the site's front page. The site correctly predicted the winners in all 33 Senate races.
2008 Presidential, Senate, and House elections
In late December 2006, the site began its 2008 coverage, which included the presidential race, all 33 Senate races, and about 40 House races that had been close in 2006 and were expected to be highly contested in 2008. For each of the known presidential, senatorial and House candidates, a photo was given, linked to the candidate's Wikipedia entry, along with a brief description of the candidate and race. The site also had four new maps: one showing the 2004 presidential election, one showing the governors by state, one showing the senate by state and finally one showing the House delegations by state. Polling data was presented daily beginning in December 2007 with data from the primaries.Polling data was presented daily on the likely outcome of the primaries as well as upcoming trends.
The site's electoral vote prediction for the 2008 election was very close to the actual outcome, correctly projecting the winner of every state except for Indiana
United States presidential election in Indiana, 2008
The 2008 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice...
, and showing Missouri
United States presidential election in Missouri, 2008
The 2008 United States presidential election in Missouri was held on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election, which took place throughout all 50 states and D.C....
(won by John McCain
John McCain
John Sidney McCain III is the senior United States Senator from Arizona. He was the Republican nominee for president in the 2008 United States election....
by only 0.13% of the vote) as a pure tossup. The senate projection was also close to the actual outcome, predicting all of the decided states correctly, and showing a Democratic pickup in Alaska and the Republican Senator Norm Coleman
Norm Coleman
Norman Bertram Coleman, Jr. is an American attorney and politician. He was a United States senator from Minnesota from 2003 to 2009. Coleman was elected in 2002 and served in the 108th, 109th, and 110th Congresses. Before becoming a senator, he was mayor of Saint Paul, Minnesota, from 1994 to 2002...
holding his seat in Minnesota. The Senate results of the Minnesota election
United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2008
The 2008 United States Senate election in Minnesota took place on November 4, 2008. After a legal battle lasting over eight months, Al Franken from the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party defeated Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in one of the closest elections in the history of the Senate...
was so close that it was contested until the state supreme court ruled in favor of Al Franken
Al Franken
Alan Stuart "Al" Franken is the junior United States Senator from Minnesota. He is a member of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, which affiliates with the national Democratic Party....
on June 30, 2009.
2010 Midterm election
The site correctly projected 35 out of 37 Senate Races. The only exception was Colorado and Nevada.External links
- electoral-vote.com
- "Poll Crazy" http://www.guardian.co.uk/salon/story/0,,1331599,00.html 2004-10-20