Edward R. Dewey
Encyclopedia
Edward Russel Dewey was an economist
who studied cycles in economics and other fields.
Hoover
wanted to know the cause of the Great Depression
. Dewey reported that each economist he spoke to gave him a different answer and he lost faith in the current economic methods. He received and took advice to study how business behaviour occurred rather than why. Therefore his views are generally regarded as inconsistent with mainstream economics
.
Dewey devoted his life to the study of cycles, claiming that "everything that has been studied has been found to have cycles present." He carried out extensive studies of cyclicity in economic
, geological
, biological
, sociology, physical sciences and other disciplines. In 1940, Edward R. Dewey learned of a 1931 Canadian conference on biological cycles held at Matamek. Under the guidance of Dewey and the conference leader, Copley Amory, the conference’s Permanent Committee was reorganized into the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in 1941, and its scope was enlarged to encompass all disciplines. The foundation was set up with a board that included distinguished scientists and industrialists to act as a central clearing house of cycles studies from diverse areas.
The foundation made studies of natural and social sciences as well as business and economics, and new methods were devised for isolating significant cycles present in time series. A magazine called "Cycles" was published from June 1950, and the foundation also published a four volume collection of reports on cycles including some of Dewey's selected writings on cycles named "Cycles Classic Library Collection". Together with author Og Mandino
, Dewey published a book entitled Cycles: The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events. The Foundation for the Study of Cycles is located in offices in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
As a result of his research, Dewey asserted that seemingly unrelated time series
often had similar cycles periods present and that when they did the phase of these cycles was mostly very similar (cycle synchrony). He also said that there were many cycles with periods that were related by powers or products of 2 and 3. This is illustrated in the table below. To construct this table starting from the period 17.75 years, multiply by three as you proceed along diagonals from lower left to upper right, and multiply by two as you proceed along diagonals from lower right to upper left. Dewey reported that the underlined numbers are commonly occurring periods (in years):
142.0 213.9 319.5 479.3
-----
71.0 106.5 159.8
-----
35.5 53.3
---- ----
17.75
-----
5.92 8.88
---- ----
1.97 2.96 4.44
---- ---- ----
0.66 0.99 1.48 2.22
---- ---- ----
0.22 0.33 0.49 0.74 1.11
---- ---- ---- ----
Volume IV of the Cycles Classic Library Collection contains 1380 reports of cycles period determinations by scientists, doctors, economists and cycles researchers. In these reports there is a tendency for certain periods of cycles to be reported more commonly. These common periods include the underlined periods above and some other periods such as 9.6 years, found in the 9.6 year cycle of lynx abundance and 3.39 years (40.68 months), found in the US stock market, which Dewey says is the most commonly found period. Dewey further said that:
dismissed their theory as pseudoscience
:
Murray Rothbard
critiques Schumpeter’s and Dewey's approach in Man, Economy, and State
:
and in America's Great Depression
:
by Edward R Dewey in 1941. It has published "Cycles" magazine and recorded the work of Dewey and many other cycles researchers through the years. The FSC also holds conferences and publishes its proceedings. It publishes two journals aimed at investors, Business and Investment Cycles and Cycles Projections.
The Foundation consists of four interrelated groups:
Economist
An economist is a professional in the social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy...
who studied cycles in economics and other fields.
Dewey's cycles work
Dewey first became interested in cycles while Chief Economic Analyst of the Department of Commerce in 1930 or 1931 because PresidentPresident of the United States
The President of the United States of America is the head of state and head of government of the United States. The president leads the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces....
Hoover
Herbert Hoover
Herbert Clark Hoover was the 31st President of the United States . Hoover was originally a professional mining engineer and author. As the United States Secretary of Commerce in the 1920s under Presidents Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge, he promoted partnerships between government and business...
wanted to know the cause of the Great Depression
Great Depression
The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in about 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s or early 1940s...
. Dewey reported that each economist he spoke to gave him a different answer and he lost faith in the current economic methods. He received and took advice to study how business behaviour occurred rather than why. Therefore his views are generally regarded as inconsistent with mainstream economics
Mainstream economics
Mainstream economics is a loose term used to refer to widely-accepted economics as taught in prominent universities and in contrast to heterodox economics...
.
Dewey devoted his life to the study of cycles, claiming that "everything that has been studied has been found to have cycles present." He carried out extensive studies of cyclicity in economic
Economics
Economics is the social science that analyzes the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. The term economics comes from the Ancient Greek from + , hence "rules of the house"...
, geological
Geology
Geology is the science comprising the study of solid Earth, the rocks of which it is composed, and the processes by which it evolves. Geology gives insight into the history of the Earth, as it provides the primary evidence for plate tectonics, the evolutionary history of life, and past climates...
, biological
Biology
Biology is a natural science concerned with the study of life and living organisms, including their structure, function, growth, origin, evolution, distribution, and taxonomy. Biology is a vast subject containing many subdivisions, topics, and disciplines...
, sociology, physical sciences and other disciplines. In 1940, Edward R. Dewey learned of a 1931 Canadian conference on biological cycles held at Matamek. Under the guidance of Dewey and the conference leader, Copley Amory, the conference’s Permanent Committee was reorganized into the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in 1941, and its scope was enlarged to encompass all disciplines. The foundation was set up with a board that included distinguished scientists and industrialists to act as a central clearing house of cycles studies from diverse areas.
The foundation made studies of natural and social sciences as well as business and economics, and new methods were devised for isolating significant cycles present in time series. A magazine called "Cycles" was published from June 1950, and the foundation also published a four volume collection of reports on cycles including some of Dewey's selected writings on cycles named "Cycles Classic Library Collection". Together with author Og Mandino
Og Mandino
Augustine "Og" Mandino II was an American author. He wrote the bestselling book The Greatest Salesman in the World. His books have sold over 50 million copies and have been translated into over twenty-five different languages...
, Dewey published a book entitled Cycles: The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events. The Foundation for the Study of Cycles is located in offices in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
As a result of his research, Dewey asserted that seemingly unrelated time series
Time series
In statistics, signal processing, econometrics and mathematical finance, a time series is a sequence of data points, measured typically at successive times spaced at uniform time intervals. Examples of time series are the daily closing value of the Dow Jones index or the annual flow volume of the...
often had similar cycles periods present and that when they did the phase of these cycles was mostly very similar (cycle synchrony). He also said that there were many cycles with periods that were related by powers or products of 2 and 3. This is illustrated in the table below. To construct this table starting from the period 17.75 years, multiply by three as you proceed along diagonals from lower left to upper right, and multiply by two as you proceed along diagonals from lower right to upper left. Dewey reported that the underlined numbers are commonly occurring periods (in years):
142.0 213.9 319.5 479.3
-----
71.0 106.5 159.8
-----
35.5 53.3
---- ----
17.75
-----
5.92 8.88
---- ----
1.97 2.96 4.44
---- ---- ----
0.66 0.99 1.48 2.22
---- ---- ----
0.22 0.33 0.49 0.74 1.11
---- ---- ---- ----
Volume IV of the Cycles Classic Library Collection contains 1380 reports of cycles period determinations by scientists, doctors, economists and cycles researchers. In these reports there is a tendency for certain periods of cycles to be reported more commonly. These common periods include the underlined periods above and some other periods such as 9.6 years, found in the 9.6 year cycle of lynx abundance and 3.39 years (40.68 months), found in the US stock market, which Dewey says is the most commonly found period. Dewey further said that:
- More than 500 different phenomena in 36 different areas of knowledge have been found to fluctuate in rhythmic cycles.
Cycles: The Science of Prediction
In 1947 Edward R.Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin published their book Cycles: The Science of Prediction which argued the United States economy was driven by four cycles of different length. Milton FriedmanMilton Friedman
Milton Friedman was an American economist, statistician, academic, and author who taught at the University of Chicago for more than three decades...
dismissed their theory as pseudoscience
Pseudoscience
Pseudoscience is a claim, belief, or practice which is presented as scientific, but which does not adhere to a valid scientific method, lacks supporting evidence or plausibility, cannot be reliably tested, or otherwise lacks scientific status...
:
[Cycles: The Science of Prediction] is not a scientific book: the evidence underlying the stated conclusions is not presented in full; data graphed are not identified so that someone else could reproduce them; the techniques employed are nowhere described in detail. [...] Its closest analogue is the modern high-power advertisement—here of book length and designed to sell an esoteric and supposedly scientific product. Like most modern advertising, the book seeks to sell its product by making exaggerated claims for it [...], showing it in association with other valued objects which really don't have anything to do with it [...], keeping discreetly silent about its defeats or mentioning them in only the vagues form [...], and citing authorities who think highly of the product.
Business cycles
John Brookes describes Dewey's attitude to the business cycle:- I asked Dewey whether the cycles he was interested in had anything to do with the business cycle that economists were always talking about. Nothing at all, he replied. Although many of the cycles that the Foundation studies occur in economics and business affairs, what is usually called the business cycle is recurrent but not rhythmic - that is, its crests and bottoms do not necessarily occur at regular intervals and so, in the view of the Foundation, it isn't a true cycle.
Murray Rothbard
Murray Rothbard
Murray Newton Rothbard was an American author and economist of the Austrian School who helped define capitalist libertarianism and popularized a form of free-market anarchism he termed "anarcho-capitalism." Rothbard wrote over twenty books and is considered a centrally important figure in the...
critiques Schumpeter’s and Dewey's approach in Man, Economy, and State
Man, Economy, and State
Man, Economy, and State: A Treatise on Economic Principles, first published in 1962, is a book on economics by Murray Rothbard, and is one of the most important books in the Austrian School of economics...
:
- Any such “multicyclic” approach must be set down as a mystical adoption of the fallacy of conceptual realism. There is no reality or meaning to the allegedly independent sets of “cycles.” The market is one interdependent unit, and the more developed it is, the greater the interrelations among market elements. It is therefore impossible for several or numerous independent cycles to coexist as self-contained units. It is precisely the characteristic of a business cycle that it permeates all market activities.
and in America's Great Depression
America's Great Depression
America's Great Depression is a 1963 treatise on the 1930s Great Depression and its root causes, written by Austrian School economist and author Murray Rothbard. The fifth edition was released in 2000.-Brief summary:...
:
- Some economists—such as Warren and Pearson or Dewey and Dakin —have believed that there are no such things as general business fluctuations—that general movements are but the results of different cycles that take place, at different specific time-lengths, in the various economic activities. To the extent that such varying cycles (such as the 20-year "building cycle" or the seven-year locust cycle) may exist, however, they are irrelevant to a study of business cycles in general or to business depressions in particular. What we are trying to explain are general booms and busts in business.
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC) is an international non-profit research organization for the study of cycles of events. It was incorporated in the state of ConnecticutConnecticut
Connecticut is a state in the New England region of the northeastern United States. It is bordered by Rhode Island to the east, Massachusetts to the north, and the state of New York to the west and the south .Connecticut is named for the Connecticut River, the major U.S. river that approximately...
by Edward R Dewey in 1941. It has published "Cycles" magazine and recorded the work of Dewey and many other cycles researchers through the years. The FSC also holds conferences and publishes its proceedings. It publishes two journals aimed at investors, Business and Investment Cycles and Cycles Projections.
The Foundation consists of four interrelated groups:
- Interdisciplinary Cycles Research Institute (CRI)
- Market Research Institute (MRI)
- Institute for the Study of the Business Cycle (ISBC)
- Edward R. Dewey Institute for Cycle Research (ERDI)
See also
- Business cycleBusiness cycleThe term business cycle refers to economy-wide fluctuations in production or economic activity over several months or years...
- EconophysicsEconophysicsEconophysics is an interdisciplinary research field, applying theories and methods originally developed by physicists in order to solve problems in economics, usually those including uncertainty or stochastic processes and nonlinear dynamics...
- Nikolai KondratievNikolai KondratievNikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratiev , Russian: Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев , was a Russian economist, who was a proponent of the New Economic Policy in the Soviet Union....
proposed medium and 50-year cycles in the 1920s. - Joseph SchumpeterJoseph SchumpeterJoseph Alois Schumpeter was an Austrian-Hungarian-American economist and political scientist. He popularized the term "creative destruction" in economics.-Life:...
(claimed in the 1940s that there were a least three business cycles, one short term, one of 7–11 years and one of about 50 years.) - War cyclesWar cyclesThe theory of war cycles holds that wars happen in cycles.-The cycles of war:The forerunner of the study of war cycles was Edward R Dewey, with Quincy Wright's monumental A Study of War adding impetus to the discipline...
External links
- The homepage of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles