Cubic mile of oil
Encyclopedia
The cubic mile of oil is a unit of energy
. It was created by Hew Crane
of SRI International
to aid in public understanding of global-scale energy consumption and resources.
Significant sources of energy include oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, and biomass (primarily the burning of wood). Other energy sources include geothermal, wind, photovoltaic, and solar thermal. The various energy units commonly used to measure these sources (e.g., joule
s, BTUs, kilowatt hours, therm
s) are only somewhat familiar to the general public, and their relationships can be confusing. These common energy units are sized for everyday activities (a joule is the energy required to lift a small apple one metre vertically). For regional, national, and global scales, larger energy units, such as the exajoule, the billion barrels of oil equivalent
(BBOE) and the quad
are used. Derived by multiplying the small common units by large powers of ten
these larger units pose additional conceptual difficulties for many citizens.
Crane intended the cubic mile of oil to provide a tangible scale for comparing the contributions of these diverse energy components as a percentage of total worldwide, energy use.
The global economy consumes approximately 30 billion
barrels of oil (1.2 trillion U.S. gallons or ) each year. Numbers of this magnitude are difficult to conceive by most educated people. The volume occupied by one trillion U.S. gallons is about one cubic mile. Crane felt that a cubic mile would be an easier concept for the general public than a trillion gallons.
of oil. Conversions to other units may be calculated based on the barrel of oil equivalent
(BOE), an approximation of the energy released by burning one 42-US-gallon barrel of crude oil. Since one BOE is about and one cubic mile is about :
The world consumes approximately 3 CMO annually from all sources. The table
emphasizes the small contribution from alternative energies in 2006.
are those that can be extracted with reasonable certainty under existing conditions using existing technology. Global proved oil reserves are estimated at approximately 1300 Goilbbl. This corresponds to roughly 43 cubic miles, or 43 CMO. At the current rate of use, this would last about 40 years. Technological advances, new discoveries, and political changes may lead to additional proved oil reserves in the future. Concurrently, the International Energy Agency
predicted in its 2005 World Energy Outlook
that the annual consumption will increase by 50% by 2030. Other fossil fuels provide additional reserves needed to provide the 1.42 CMO they currently supply:
The CMO is a powerful means of understanding the difficulty of replacing oil energy by other sources. SRI International chemist Ripudaman Malhotra, working with Crane and colleague Ed Kinderman, used it to describe the looming energy crisis in sobering terms. Malhotra illustrates the problem of replacing one cubic mile of oil with energy from five different alternative sources. Such a replacement requires long and significant development.
Allowing fifty years to develop each replacement, one cubic mile of oil could be replaced by any one of these developments:
The energy
produced is the power
rating of the source multiplied by the duration it is operational. These comparisons take into account the variability of available power (solar panels work only during the day, turbines work only when the wind blows).
The environmental, social, and financial costs of such development projects are immense:
For comparison, US$3.2 trillion is the approximate gross domestic product
of Germany, China, or the United Kingdom. The total land area of New Zealand
is approximately 270000 square kilometres (104,247.6 sq mi).
At a 2008 market price of US$120 per barrel (US$750/m3), the cost of one CMO was about US$3 trillion.
Units of energy
Because energy is defined via work, the SI unit for energy is the same as the unit of work – the joule , named in honour of James Prescott Joule and his experiments on the mechanical equivalent of heat...
. It was created by Hew Crane
Hewitt Crane
Hewitt D. Crane was an American engineer best known for his pioneering work at SRI International on ERMA , for Bank of America, magnetic digital logic, neuristor logic, the development of an eye-movement tracking device, and a pen-input device for computers.-Early life and career:Crane was born in...
of SRI International
SRI International
SRI International , founded as Stanford Research Institute, is one of the world's largest contract research institutes. Based in Menlo Park, California, the trustees of Stanford University established it in 1946 as a center of innovation to support economic development in the region. It was later...
to aid in public understanding of global-scale energy consumption and resources.
Significant sources of energy include oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, and biomass (primarily the burning of wood). Other energy sources include geothermal, wind, photovoltaic, and solar thermal. The various energy units commonly used to measure these sources (e.g., joule
Joule
The joule ; symbol J) is a derived unit of energy or work in the International System of Units. It is equal to the energy expended in applying a force of one newton through a distance of one metre , or in passing an electric current of one ampere through a resistance of one ohm for one second...
s, BTUs, kilowatt hours, therm
Therm
The therm is a non-SI unit of heat energy equal to 100,000 British thermal units . It is approximately the energy equivalent of burning 100 cubic feet of natural gas....
s) are only somewhat familiar to the general public, and their relationships can be confusing. These common energy units are sized for everyday activities (a joule is the energy required to lift a small apple one metre vertically). For regional, national, and global scales, larger energy units, such as the exajoule, the billion barrels of oil equivalent
Barrel of oil equivalent
The barrel of oil equivalent is a unit of energy based on the approximate energy released by burning one barrel of crude oil. The US Internal Revenue Service defines it as equal to 5.8 × 106 BTU...
(BBOE) and the quad
Quad (energy)
A quad is a unit of energy equal to 1015 BTU, or 1.055 × 1018 joules in SI units.The unit is used by the U.S. Department of Energy in discussing world and national energy budgets. The global primary energy production in 2004 was 446 quad, equivalent to 471 EJ...
are used. Derived by multiplying the small common units by large powers of ten
Scientific notation
Scientific notation is a way of writing numbers that are too large or too small to be conveniently written in standard decimal notation. Scientific notation has a number of useful properties and is commonly used in calculators and by scientists, mathematicians, doctors, and engineers.In scientific...
these larger units pose additional conceptual difficulties for many citizens.
Crane intended the cubic mile of oil to provide a tangible scale for comparing the contributions of these diverse energy components as a percentage of total worldwide, energy use.
The global economy consumes approximately 30 billion
1000000000 (number)
1,000,000,000 is the natural number following 999,999,999 and preceding 1,000,000,001.In scientific notation, it is written as 109....
barrels of oil (1.2 trillion U.S. gallons or ) each year. Numbers of this magnitude are difficult to conceive by most educated people. The volume occupied by one trillion U.S. gallons is about one cubic mile. Crane felt that a cubic mile would be an easier concept for the general public than a trillion gallons.
Definition and energy equivalents
The CMO is the energy released by burning a cubic mileCubic mile
A cubic mile is an imperial / U.S. customary unit of volume, used in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It is defined as the volume of a cube with sides of 1 mile in length....
of oil. Conversions to other units may be calculated based on the barrel of oil equivalent
Barrel of oil equivalent
The barrel of oil equivalent is a unit of energy based on the approximate energy released by burning one barrel of crude oil. The US Internal Revenue Service defines it as equal to 5.8 × 106 BTU...
(BOE), an approximation of the energy released by burning one 42-US-gallon barrel of crude oil. Since one BOE is about and one cubic mile is about :
| 1 CMO | ≈ | |
| = 160 exajoules | ||
| ≈ | ||
| = 44.54 petawatt-hours | ||
| ≈ | ||
| = 152 quads Quad (energy) A quad is a unit of energy equal to 1015 BTU, or 1.055 × 1018 joules in SI units.The unit is used by the U.S. Department of Energy in discussing world and national energy budgets. The global primary energy production in 2004 was 446 quad, equivalent to 471 EJ... |
||
| ≈ 150 trillion (1012) cubic feet of natural gas Natural gas Natural gas is a naturally occurring gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, typically with 0–20% higher hydrocarbons . It is found associated with other hydrocarbon fuel, in coal beds, as methane clathrates, and is an important fuel source and a major feedstock for fertilizers.Most natural... |
||
| ≈ | ||
Annual energy consumption by source
emphasizes the small contribution from alternative energies in 2006.
| Source | CMO/yr |
|---|---|
| Oil | 1.06 |
| Coal | 0.81 |
| Natural gas | 0.61 |
| Biomass | 0.19 |
| Nuclear | 0.15 |
| Hydroelectric | 0.17 |
| Geothermal | <0.01 |
| Wind+Photovoltaic+Solar thermal | <0.005 |
Global energy reserves
Proved oil reservesOil reserves
The total estimated amount of oil in an oil reservoir, including both producible and non-producible oil, is called oil in place. However, because of reservoir characteristics and limitations in petroleum extraction technologies, only a fraction of this oil can be brought to the surface, and it is...
are those that can be extracted with reasonable certainty under existing conditions using existing technology. Global proved oil reserves are estimated at approximately 1300 Goilbbl. This corresponds to roughly 43 cubic miles, or 43 CMO. At the current rate of use, this would last about 40 years. Technological advances, new discoveries, and political changes may lead to additional proved oil reserves in the future. Concurrently, the International Energy Agency
International Energy Agency
The International Energy Agency is a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organization established in the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1974 in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis...
predicted in its 2005 World Energy Outlook
World Energy Outlook
The annual World Energy Outlook is the International Energy Agency's flagship publication and it is widely recognised as the most authoritative energy source for global energy projections and analysis. It represents the leading source for medium to long-term energy market projections, extensive...
that the annual consumption will increase by 50% by 2030. Other fossil fuels provide additional reserves needed to provide the 1.42 CMO they currently supply:
- Natural gas reserves total 42 CMOs (69 years at current consumption)
- Coal reserves total 121 CMOs (150 years at current consumption)
- Tar sands and other unconventional fossil sources have unknown reserves
Replacement of oil by alternative sources
While oil has many other important uses (lubrication, plastics, roadways, roofing) this section considers only its use as an energy source.The CMO is a powerful means of understanding the difficulty of replacing oil energy by other sources. SRI International chemist Ripudaman Malhotra, working with Crane and colleague Ed Kinderman, used it to describe the looming energy crisis in sobering terms. Malhotra illustrates the problem of replacing one cubic mile of oil with energy from five different alternative sources. Such a replacement requires long and significant development.
Allowing fifty years to develop each replacement, one cubic mile of oil could be replaced by any one of these developments:
- 4 Three Gorges DamThree Gorges DamThe Three Gorges Dam is a hydroelectric dam that spans the Yangtze River by the town of Sandouping, located in the Yiling District of Yichang, in Hubei province, China...
s, developed each year for 50 years, or - 52 nuclear power plantNuclear power plantA nuclear power plant is a thermal power station in which the heat source is one or more nuclear reactors. As in a conventional thermal power station the heat is used to generate steam which drives a steam turbine connected to a generator which produces electricity.Nuclear power plants are usually...
s, developed each year for 50 years, or - 104 coal-fired power plantsFossil fuel power plantA fossil-fuel power station is a power station that burns fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas or petroleum to produce electricity. Central station fossil-fuel power plants are designed on a large scale for continuous operation...
, developed each year for 50 years, or - 32,850 wind turbineWind turbineA wind turbine is a device that converts kinetic energy from the wind into mechanical energy. If the mechanical energy is used to produce electricity, the device may be called a wind generator or wind charger. If the mechanical energy is used to drive machinery, such as for grinding grain or...
s, developed each year for 50 years, or - 91,250,000 rooftop solar photovoltaic panelsPhotovoltaic moduleA solar panel is a packaged, connected assembly of solar cells, also known as photovoltaic cells...
developed each year for 50 years
The energy
Energy
In physics, energy is an indirectly observed quantity. It is often understood as the ability a physical system has to do work on other physical systems...
produced is the power
Power (physics)
In physics, power is the rate at which energy is transferred, used, or transformed. For example, the rate at which a light bulb transforms electrical energy into heat and light is measured in watts—the more wattage, the more power, or equivalently the more electrical energy is used per unit...
rating of the source multiplied by the duration it is operational. These comparisons take into account the variability of available power (solar panels work only during the day, turbines work only when the wind blows).
The environmental, social, and financial costs of such development projects are immense:
- The Three Gorges Dam is the world's largest, flooding 632 km2, displacing 1.25 million people, and costing roughly US$30 billion.
- A nuclear power plant produces hazardous radioactive wasteRadioactive wasteRadioactive wastes are wastes that contain radioactive material. Radioactive wastes are usually by-products of nuclear power generation and other applications of nuclear fission or nuclear technology, such as research and medicine...
, raises fears of radiationRadiationIn physics, radiation is a process in which energetic particles or energetic waves travel through a medium or space. There are two distinct types of radiation; ionizing and non-ionizing...
or nuclear proliferationNuclear proliferationNuclear proliferation is a term now used to describe the spread of nuclear weapons, fissile material, and weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information, to nations which are not recognized as "Nuclear Weapon States" by the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also known as the...
, requires 10 years to construct for a 40 year lifetime, occupies about 4 km2, and may cost upwards of US$5 billion. - A 500 MW coal-fired power plant may contribute to acid rainAcid rainAcid rain is a rain or any other form of precipitation that is unusually acidic, meaning that it possesses elevated levels of hydrogen ions . It can have harmful effects on plants, aquatic animals, and infrastructure. Acid rain is caused by emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen...
, global warmingGlobal warmingGlobal warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...
, and air pollutionAir pollutionAir pollution is the introduction of chemicals, particulate matter, or biological materials that cause harm or discomfort to humans or other living organisms, or cause damage to the natural environment or built environment, into the atmosphere....
, occupies about 2 km2, may obtain its fuel via controversial methods such as mountaintop removalMountaintop removalMountaintop removal mining is a form of surface mining that requires the removal of the summit or summit ridge of a mountain in order to permit easier access to the coal seams...
, and costs about US$650 million. - A large wind turbine requires a location with an abundance of steady wind, may be visually obtrusive, can interfere with aviation, needs about 0.16 km2 to avoid interfering with adjacent turbines, and costs about US$2 million.
- A 2.1 kW rooftop solar array requires technical skillsElectricianAn electrician is a tradesman specializing in electrical wiring of buildings, stationary machines and related equipment. Electricians may be employed in the installation of new electrical components or the maintenance and repair of existing electrical infrastructure. Electricians may also...
for installation, needs a sunny location, presents few aesthetic or environmental problems, covers about 14 m2, but costs around US$15,000.
| Source | Number | Cost (US$1 trillion) | Area | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (km2) | (sq mi) | |||
| Dams | 200 | 6 | 1264400 | 488,187.6 |
| Nuclear plants | 2,600 | 13 | 10400 | 4,015.5 |
| Coal plants | 5,200 | 3.4 | 10400 | 4,015.5 |
| Wind turbines | 1,642,000 | 3.3 | 273667 | 105,663.4 |
| Rooftop photovoltaics | 4,562,500,000 | 68 | 63875 | 24,662.3 |
For comparison, US$3.2 trillion is the approximate gross domestic product
Gross domestic product
Gross domestic product refers to the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of a country's standard of living....
of Germany, China, or the United Kingdom. The total land area of New Zealand
New Zealand
New Zealand is an island country in the south-western Pacific Ocean comprising two main landmasses and numerous smaller islands. The country is situated some east of Australia across the Tasman Sea, and roughly south of the Pacific island nations of New Caledonia, Fiji, and Tonga...
is approximately 270000 square kilometres (104,247.6 sq mi).
At a 2008 market price of US$120 per barrel (US$750/m3), the cost of one CMO was about US$3 trillion.
External links
- 'Doug Englebart's colloquium' Hewitt Crane discusses the state of the world's energy supply