Colin Campbell (geologist)
Encyclopedia
Colin J. Campbell, PhD
Oxford
, (born in Berlin
, Germany in 1931) is a retired British petroleum geologist
who predicted that oil production would peak
by 2007. The consequences of this are uncertain but drastic, due to the world's dependency on fossil fuel
s for the vast majority of its energy. His theories have received wide attention but are disputed by some in the oil industry and have not significantly changed governmental energy policies at this time. In order to deal with declining global oil production, he has proposed the Rimini protocol
.
Influential papers by Campbell include The Coming Oil Crisis, written with Jean Laherrère
in 1998 and credited with convincing the International Energy Agency
of the coming peak; and The End of Cheap Oil, published the same year in Scientific American
. He was referred to as a "doomsayer" in The Wall Street Journal
in 2004..
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
, founded by Campbell in 2000, has been gaining recognition in the recent years. The Association has organized yearly international conferences since 2002. The most recent was in Washington, DC on 7–9 October 2010.
petrogeologist is M. King Hubbert
, who predicted in 1956 that oil production would peak in the United States between 1965 and 1970. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970. Hubbert's theories became popular during the 1973 energy crisis, and during the 1979 energy crisis
when even the United States Secretary of Energy
, James Schlesinger announced, as he left his post that year, that 'Mid-East production is unlikely to expand much, if at all, and is unlikely to drop below current levels'. (Wall Street Journal 1979). In December 2000 Colin Campbell warned in a public lecture held at the Clausthal University of Technology
that
.
According to Campbell:
In 1989 Campbell claimed that there would be a shortage towards the late 1990s. In 1990 he claimed that 1998 would represent a "depletion midpoint." These early assessments were, however, according to Campbell himself, "based on public domain data, before the degree of misreporting by industry and governments was appreciated." Since that time, Campbell has been predicting that the peak of oil production will cause a catastrophic worldwide economic depression.
The U.S. Department Of Energy report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management
, often referred to as the Hirsch Report, proposes an urgent mitigation approach to deal with the possibility of oil production going into decline in the immediate future.
It states: "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an
unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."
The current debate in the U.S. revolves around energy policy, and whether to shift funding to increasing conservation
measures, fuel efficiency
, and other energy sources such as wind power
, solar power
, hydropower
, and nuclear power
.
Campbell has previously predicted production peaks which have not realized, some people are criticizing his methods because of that.
(BA
Geology 1954, MA and DPhil
1957), and has worked as a petroleum
geologist
in the field, as a manager, and as a consultant. He has been employed by Oxford University, Texaco
, British Petroleum
, Amoco
, Shenandoah Oil, Norsk Hydro
, and Fina
, and has worked with the Bulgaria
n and Swedish
governments. His writing credits include two books and more than 150 papers.
More recently, he founded the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
, is affiliated with Petroconsultants
in Geneva
, is a trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
in London
. He conducts research on the oil peak, and he also tries to build public awareness of the issue, which includes lecturing extensively. He addressed a committee of the British House of Commons
, and officials from investment and automotive companies. He has appeared in the documentary film
s The End of Suburbia
, Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash
, and PEAK OIL – Imposed by Nature.
phenomenon, from End of Oil (2005))
"It's quite a simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands. The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it's gone." (on peak oil, in 2007)
Doctor of Philosophy
Doctor of Philosophy, abbreviated as Ph.D., PhD, D.Phil., or DPhil , in English-speaking countries, is a postgraduate academic degree awarded by universities...
Oxford
University of Oxford
The University of Oxford is a university located in Oxford, United Kingdom. It is the second-oldest surviving university in the world and the oldest in the English-speaking world. Although its exact date of foundation is unclear, there is evidence of teaching as far back as 1096...
, (born in Berlin
Berlin
Berlin is the capital city of Germany and is one of the 16 states of Germany. With a population of 3.45 million people, Berlin is Germany's largest city. It is the second most populous city proper and the seventh most populous urban area in the European Union...
, Germany in 1931) is a retired British petroleum geologist
Petroleum geologist
A petroleum geologist is an occupation that involves all aspects of oil discovery and production in the field of petroleum geology. Petroleum geologists are usually linked to the actual discovery of oil and the identification of possible oil deposits or leads. It can be a very labor intensive task...
who predicted that oil production would peak
Peak oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, projected reserves and the combined production rate of a field...
by 2007. The consequences of this are uncertain but drastic, due to the world's dependency on fossil fuel
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuels are fuels formed by natural processes such as anaerobic decomposition of buried dead organisms. The age of the organisms and their resulting fossil fuels is typically millions of years, and sometimes exceeds 650 million years...
s for the vast majority of its energy. His theories have received wide attention but are disputed by some in the oil industry and have not significantly changed governmental energy policies at this time. In order to deal with declining global oil production, he has proposed the Rimini protocol
Rimini protocol
The Rimini Protocol is a proposal made by the geologist Colin Campbell in 2003. It is intended to stabilise oil prices and minimize the effects of peak oil....
.
Influential papers by Campbell include The Coming Oil Crisis, written with Jean Laherrère
Jean Laherrère
Jean H. Laherrère is a petroleum engineer and consultant, best known as the co-author of an influential 1998 Scientific American article entitled . Laherrère worked for 37 years with Total S.A., a French petroleum company. His work on seismic refraction surveys contributed to the discovery of...
in 1998 and credited with convincing the International Energy Agency
International Energy Agency
The International Energy Agency is a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organization established in the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in 1974 in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis...
of the coming peak; and The End of Cheap Oil, published the same year in Scientific American
Scientific American
Scientific American is a popular science magazine. It is notable for its long history of presenting science monthly to an educated but not necessarily scientific public, through its careful attention to the clarity of its text as well as the quality of its specially commissioned color graphics...
. He was referred to as a "doomsayer" in The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal is an American English-language international daily newspaper. It is published in New York City by Dow Jones & Company, a division of News Corporation, along with the Asian and European editions of the Journal....
in 2004..
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, or ASPO, is a network of scientists, affiliated with a wide array of global institutions and universities, whose goal is to attempt to determine the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas, due to resource...
, founded by Campbell in 2000, has been gaining recognition in the recent years. The Association has organized yearly international conferences since 2002. The most recent was in Washington, DC on 7–9 October 2010.
Background
The most famous peak oilPeak oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, projected reserves and the combined production rate of a field...
petrogeologist is M. King Hubbert
M. King Hubbert
Marion King Hubbert was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory , with important political ramifications. He was often...
, who predicted in 1956 that oil production would peak in the United States between 1965 and 1970. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970. Hubbert's theories became popular during the 1973 energy crisis, and during the 1979 energy crisis
1979 energy crisis
The 1979 oil crisis in the United States occurred in the wake of the Iranian Revolution. Amid massive protests, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, fled his country in early 1979 and the Ayatollah Khomeini soon became the new leader of Iran. Protests severely disrupted the Iranian oil...
when even the United States Secretary of Energy
United States Secretary of Energy
The United States Secretary of Energy is the head of the United States Department of Energy, a member of the President's Cabinet, and fifteenth in the presidential line of succession. The position was formed on October 1, 1977 with the creation of the Department of Energy when President Jimmy...
, James Schlesinger announced, as he left his post that year, that 'Mid-East production is unlikely to expand much, if at all, and is unlikely to drop below current levels'. (Wall Street Journal 1979). In December 2000 Colin Campbell warned in a public lecture held at the Clausthal University of Technology
Clausthal University of Technology
The Clausthal University of Technology is an institute of technology in Clausthal-Zellerfeld, Lower Saxony, Germany...
that
'There is, I think, a strong danger of some ill-considered military intervention to try to secure oil. A stock market crash seems inevitable, as some investment managers are now telling us. The global market may collapse because of high transport costs and global recession. Self-sufficiency will become a priority.'
Current debate
Global oil discovery peaked in 1964, and since the early 1980s oil production has outpaced new discoveries. The world currently consumes oil at the rate of 84 million barrel per day (31 billion barrels/year, or 151 m³/s), and consumption is rising, particularly in ChinaChina
Chinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture...
.
According to Campbell:
- There are no new potential oil fieldOil fieldAn oil field is a region with an abundance of oil wells extracting petroleum from below ground. Because the oil reservoirs typically extend over a large area, possibly several hundred kilometres across, full exploitation entails multiple wells scattered across the area...
s sufficiently large to reduce this future energy crisisEnergy crisisAn energy crisis is any great bottleneck in the supply of energy resources to an economy. In popular literature though, it often refers to one of the energy sources used at a certain time and place, particularly those that supply national electricity grids or serve as fuel for vehicles...
. - The reported oil reservesOil reservesThe total estimated amount of oil in an oil reservoir, including both producible and non-producible oil, is called oil in place. However, because of reservoir characteristics and limitations in petroleum extraction technologies, only a fraction of this oil can be brought to the surface, and it is...
of many OPECOPECOPEC is an intergovernmental organization of twelve developing countries made up of Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. OPEC has maintained its headquarters in Vienna since 1965, and hosts regular meetings...
countries are inflated, to increase their quotas, or improve their chance of getting a loan from the World BankWorld BankThe World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans to developing countries for capital programmes.The World Bank's official goal is the reduction of poverty...
. - The practice of gradually adding new discoveries to a country's list of proven reserves, instead of all at once, artificially inflates the current rate of discovery.
In 1989 Campbell claimed that there would be a shortage towards the late 1990s. In 1990 he claimed that 1998 would represent a "depletion midpoint." These early assessments were, however, according to Campbell himself, "based on public domain data, before the degree of misreporting by industry and governments was appreciated." Since that time, Campbell has been predicting that the peak of oil production will cause a catastrophic worldwide economic depression.
The U.S. Department Of Energy report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management
Hirsch report
The Hirsch report, the commonly referred to name for the report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, was created by request for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005....
, often referred to as the Hirsch Report, proposes an urgent mitigation approach to deal with the possibility of oil production going into decline in the immediate future.
It states: "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an
unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."
The current debate in the U.S. revolves around energy policy, and whether to shift funding to increasing conservation
Energy conservation
Energy conservation refers to efforts made to reduce energy consumption. Energy conservation can be achieved through increased efficient energy use, in conjunction with decreased energy consumption and/or reduced consumption from conventional energy sources...
measures, fuel efficiency
Fuel efficiency
Fuel efficiency is a form of thermal efficiency, meaning the efficiency of a process that converts chemical potential energy contained in a carrier fuel into kinetic energy or work. Overall fuel efficiency may vary per device, which in turn may vary per application, and this spectrum of variance is...
, and other energy sources such as wind power
Wind power
Wind power is the conversion of wind energy into a useful form of energy, such as using wind turbines to make electricity, windmills for mechanical power, windpumps for water pumping or drainage, or sails to propel ships....
, solar power
Solar power
Solar energy, radiant light and heat from the sun, has been harnessed by humans since ancient times using a range of ever-evolving technologies. Solar radiation, along with secondary solar-powered resources such as wind and wave power, hydroelectricity and biomass, account for most of the available...
, hydropower
Hydropower
Hydropower, hydraulic power, hydrokinetic power or water power is power that is derived from the force or energy of falling water, which may be harnessed for useful purposes. Since ancient times, hydropower has been used for irrigation and the operation of various mechanical devices, such as...
, and nuclear power
Nuclear power
Nuclear power is the use of sustained nuclear fission to generate heat and electricity. Nuclear power plants provide about 6% of the world's energy and 13–14% of the world's electricity, with the U.S., France, and Japan together accounting for about 50% of nuclear generated electricity...
.
Campbell has previously predicted production peaks which have not realized, some people are criticizing his methods because of that.
Personal background
Campbell has over 40 years of experience in the oil industry. He was educated at St Paul's School (the public school in London) and Wadham College, OxfordWadham College, Oxford
Wadham College is one of the constituent colleges of the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, located at the southern end of Parks Road in central Oxford. It was founded by Nicholas and Dorothy Wadham, wealthy Somerset landowners, during the reign of King James I...
(BA
Bachelor of Arts
A Bachelor of Arts , from the Latin artium baccalaureus, is a bachelor's degree awarded for an undergraduate course or program in either the liberal arts, the sciences, or both...
Geology 1954, MA and DPhil
Doctor of Philosophy
Doctor of Philosophy, abbreviated as Ph.D., PhD, D.Phil., or DPhil , in English-speaking countries, is a postgraduate academic degree awarded by universities...
1957), and has worked as a petroleum
Petroleum
Petroleum or crude oil is a naturally occurring, flammable liquid consisting of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons of various molecular weights and other liquid organic compounds, that are found in geologic formations beneath the Earth's surface. Petroleum is recovered mostly through oil drilling...
geologist
Geologist
A geologist is a scientist who studies the solid and liquid matter that constitutes the Earth as well as the processes and history that has shaped it. Geologists usually engage in studying geology. Geologists, studying more of an applied science than a theoretical one, must approach Geology using...
in the field, as a manager, and as a consultant. He has been employed by Oxford University, Texaco
Texaco
Texaco is the name of an American oil retail brand. Its flagship product is its fuel "Texaco with Techron". It also owns the Havoline motor oil brand....
, British Petroleum
BP
BP p.l.c. is a global oil and gas company headquartered in London, United Kingdom. It is the third-largest energy company and fourth-largest company in the world measured by revenues and one of the six oil and gas "supermajors"...
, Amoco
Amoco
Amoco Corporation, originally Standard Oil Company , was a global chemical and oil company, founded in 1889 around a refinery located in Whiting, Indiana, United States....
, Shenandoah Oil, Norsk Hydro
Norsk Hydro
Norsk Hydro ASA is a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company, headquartered in Oslo. Hydro is the fourth largest integrated aluminium company worldwide. It has operations in some 40 countries around the world and is active on all continents. The Norwegian state holds a 43.8 percent...
, and Fina
Fina
Fina may refer to:*Fina, a character in the Skies of Arcadia video game*FINA, the International Swimming Federation*FINA, the North American Forum on Integration...
, and has worked with the Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Bulgaria , officially the Republic of Bulgaria , is a parliamentary democracy within a unitary constitutional republic in Southeast Europe. The country borders Romania to the north, Serbia and Macedonia to the west, Greece and Turkey to the south, as well as the Black Sea to the east...
n and Swedish
Sweden
Sweden , officially the Kingdom of Sweden , is a Nordic country on the Scandinavian Peninsula in Northern Europe. Sweden borders with Norway and Finland and is connected to Denmark by a bridge-tunnel across the Öresund....
governments. His writing credits include two books and more than 150 papers.
More recently, he founded the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, or ASPO, is a network of scientists, affiliated with a wide array of global institutions and universities, whose goal is to attempt to determine the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas, due to resource...
, is affiliated with Petroconsultants
Petroconsultants
Petroconsultants was an oil and gas exploration and scouting information company formed in 1968 in Geneva to take over the activities of Harry Wassall and Associates, which was founded in Havana in 1956 . Petroconsultants collected information about oil and gas wells and fields from around the...
in Geneva
Geneva
Geneva In the national languages of Switzerland the city is known as Genf , Ginevra and Genevra is the second-most-populous city in Switzerland and is the most populous city of Romandie, the French-speaking part of Switzerland...
, is a trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre is an independent, UK-registered educational charity. The centre is working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil depletion and peak oil problem....
in London
London
London is the capital city of :England and the :United Kingdom, the largest metropolitan area in the United Kingdom, and the largest urban zone in the European Union by most measures. Located on the River Thames, London has been a major settlement for two millennia, its history going back to its...
. He conducts research on the oil peak, and he also tries to build public awareness of the issue, which includes lecturing extensively. He addressed a committee of the British House of Commons
British House of Commons
The House of Commons is the lower house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, which also comprises the Sovereign and the House of Lords . Both Commons and Lords meet in the Palace of Westminster. The Commons is a democratically elected body, consisting of 650 members , who are known as Members...
, and officials from investment and automotive companies. He has appeared in the documentary film
Documentary film
Documentary films constitute a broad category of nonfictional motion pictures intended to document some aspect of reality, primarily for the purposes of instruction or maintaining a historical record...
s The End of Suburbia
The End of Suburbia
The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of The American Dream is a 2004 documentary film concerning peak oil and its implications for the suburban lifestyle, written and directed by Toronto-based filmmaker Gregory Greene....
, Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash
Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash
A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash is an award-winning documentary film about peak oil, produced and directed by Basil Gelpke and Ray McCormack.-Overview:...
, and PEAK OIL – Imposed by Nature.
Quotes
"But this peak has no real great significance, it is the perception and the vision of the long decline that comes into sight on the other side of the peak. That's really what matters." (speaking on the peak oilPeak oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, projected reserves and the combined production rate of a field...
phenomenon, from End of Oil (2005))
"It's quite a simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands. The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it's gone." (on peak oil, in 2007)
See also
- Kenneth S. DeffeyesKenneth S. DeffeyesKenneth S. Deffeyes is a geologist who worked with M. King Hubbert, the creator of the Hubbert peak theory, at the Shell Oil Company research laboratory in Houston, Texas. Deffeyes holds a B.S. in petroleum geology from the Colorado School of Mines and a Ph.D. in geology from Princeton University,...
- Jean LaherrèreJean LaherrèreJean H. Laherrère is a petroleum engineer and consultant, best known as the co-author of an influential 1998 Scientific American article entitled . Laherrère worked for 37 years with Total S.A., a French petroleum company. His work on seismic refraction surveys contributed to the discovery of...
- Thomas MalthusThomas MalthusThe Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus FRS was an English scholar, influential in political economy and demography. Malthus popularized the economic theory of rent....
, and the Malthusian catastropheMalthusian catastropheA Malthusian catastrophe was originally foreseen to be a forced return to subsistence-level conditions once population growth had outpaced agricultural production...
. - Dale Allen PfeifferDale Allen PfeifferDale Allen Pfeiffer is a geologist and writer from Michigan, U.S. who has investigated and written about energy depletion and potential future resource wars. He has also written about class war, sustainability, direct action and the environment. He is also an anarchist activist and a member of the...
Further reading
- Dire prophecy: as prices soar, doomsayers provoke debate on oil's future, by Jeffrey Ball from The Wall Street Journal, volume 244, number 57, September 21, 2004.
- The end of cheap oil, by Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. LaherrèreJean LaherrèreJean H. Laherrère is a petroleum engineer and consultant, best known as the co-author of an influential 1998 Scientific American article entitled . Laherrère worked for 37 years with Total S.A., a French petroleum company. His work on seismic refraction surveys contributed to the discovery of...
. Scientific American, March 1998. - The Coming Oil Crisis, by Colin J. Campbell. Independent Publishers Group, April 1, 2004. ISBN 0-906522-11-0.
- The Truth about Oil and the Looming Energy Crisis, by Colin J. Campbell. (booklet; no ISBN)
External links
- Oil - A Turning Point for Mankind (video lecture) by Dr. Colin J. Campbell, at the Clausthal University of Technology, Dec. 2000.
- The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) - official website
- ASPO Ireland (Colin Campbell's Office)
- Colin J. Campbell from the Coming Global Oil Crisis. 2004.
- Colin Campbell interviewed, by Julian Darley. Global Public Media, December 18, 2002.
- ASPO newsletter, by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
- ASPO depletion profiles by country, by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
- Depletion model, by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
- ASPO Lisbon Conference 2005
- Speech by Dr. Colin J. Campbell at 'Fuelling the Future' conference, in Kinsale, Ireland, June 2005.
- Global Oil Watch - Breaking Oil & Gas News
- Energy Bulletin