Backstop resources
Encyclopedia
Backstop resources theory states that as a heavily used limited resource becomes expensive, alternative resources will become cheap by comparison, therefore making the alternatives economically viable options. In the long term, the theory implies faith that technological progress will allow backstop resources to be essentially unlimited (see also Cornucopian
), and that need will cause the development of new technologies to become cost effective. This idea is supported by economist Robert Solow
who claimed that four fifths of US economic growth could be attributed to technological development (the other fifth being accounted for by expansion of labor and capital).
derives from the Hubbert peak theory
, which theorizes that production of any finite resource over time will have roughly inverse curves before and after the peak of the resource's production (creating an approximately bell shaped curve
). Hubbert's theory is used to predict when a resource will reach its peak of production by studying past resource discovery and production trends. Peak Oil
advocates often show only crude oil production which may have set a global peak in 2005.
Backstop resource theory maintains that alternatives will be developed as they are needed.
during its Special Period
following the collapse of the Soviet Union
, increased sugar cane ethanol
production to offset lost crude oil imports from the Soviet Union.
Canada is the largest single source of oil imports for the United States. As oil prices spiked following the 1979 energy crisis
, Canada began significant production of oil derived from tar sands
, also known as bitumen. The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration
(EIA) states that historic Canadian Tar Sand production rose from 200000 oilbbl/d in 1980 to 1100000 oilbbl/d in 2004. EIA's 2007 International Energy Outlook estimates that tar sand production will climb to 2300000 oilbbl/d in 2015 and 3.6 Moilbbl/d in 2030.
South Africa
responded to anti-apartheid embargoes by switching from imported crude oil to coal liquefaction
producing gasoline and diesel profitably from coal and natural gas using Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. The EIA estimates global coal-to-liquids production will climb to 600000 oilbbl/d in 2015 and 2400000 oilbbl/d in 2030.
The theory also neglects to account for certain requisite properties of the resources in question and the development of necessary infrastructure. It may be possible to design a car to run on hydrogen, but widescale construction of a hydrogen infrastructure is a far more complex problem, especially in a scenario in which the major resource is already becoming scarce.
Cornucopian
A cornucopian is a futurist who believes that continued progress and provision of material items for mankind can be met by similarly continued advances in technology...
), and that need will cause the development of new technologies to become cost effective. This idea is supported by economist Robert Solow
Robert Solow
Robert Merton Solow is an American economist particularly known for his work on the theory of economic growth that culminated in the exogenous growth model named after him...
who claimed that four fifths of US economic growth could be attributed to technological development (the other fifth being accounted for by expansion of labor and capital).
Implications to Peak oil
Peak OilPeak oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, projected reserves and the combined production rate of a field...
derives from the Hubbert peak theory
Hubbert peak theory
The Hubbert peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve...
, which theorizes that production of any finite resource over time will have roughly inverse curves before and after the peak of the resource's production (creating an approximately bell shaped curve
Hubbert curve
The Hubbert curve is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. It is a symmetric logistic distribution curve, often confused with the "normal" gaussian function. It first appeared in "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," geophysicist M...
). Hubbert's theory is used to predict when a resource will reach its peak of production by studying past resource discovery and production trends. Peak Oil
Peak oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, projected reserves and the combined production rate of a field...
advocates often show only crude oil production which may have set a global peak in 2005.
Backstop resource theory maintains that alternatives will be developed as they are needed.
Historical examples
CubaCuba
The Republic of Cuba is an island nation in the Caribbean. The nation of Cuba consists of the main island of Cuba, the Isla de la Juventud, and several archipelagos. Havana is the largest city in Cuba and the country's capital. Santiago de Cuba is the second largest city...
during its Special Period
Special Period
The Special Period in Time of Peace in Cuba was an extended period of economic crisis that began in 1991 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and, by extension, the Comecon. The economic depression of the Special Period was at its most severe in the early-to-mid 1990s before slightly declining...
following the collapse of the Soviet Union
Soviet Union
The Soviet Union , officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics , was a constitutionally socialist state that existed in Eurasia between 1922 and 1991....
, increased sugar cane ethanol
Ethanol
Ethanol, also called ethyl alcohol, pure alcohol, grain alcohol, or drinking alcohol, is a volatile, flammable, colorless liquid. It is a psychoactive drug and one of the oldest recreational drugs. Best known as the type of alcohol found in alcoholic beverages, it is also used in thermometers, as a...
production to offset lost crude oil imports from the Soviet Union.
Canada is the largest single source of oil imports for the United States. As oil prices spiked following the 1979 energy crisis
1979 energy crisis
The 1979 oil crisis in the United States occurred in the wake of the Iranian Revolution. Amid massive protests, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, fled his country in early 1979 and the Ayatollah Khomeini soon became the new leader of Iran. Protests severely disrupted the Iranian oil...
, Canada began significant production of oil derived from tar sands
Tar sands
Bituminous sands, colloquially known as oil sands or tar sands, are a type of unconventional petroleum deposit. The sands contain naturally occurring mixtures of sand, clay, water, and a dense and extremely viscous form of petroleum technically referred to as bitumen...
, also known as bitumen. The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration
Energy Information Administration
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and...
(EIA) states that historic Canadian Tar Sand production rose from 200000 oilbbl/d in 1980 to 1100000 oilbbl/d in 2004. EIA's 2007 International Energy Outlook estimates that tar sand production will climb to 2300000 oilbbl/d in 2015 and 3.6 Moilbbl/d in 2030.
South Africa
South Africa
The Republic of South Africa is a country in southern Africa. Located at the southern tip of Africa, it is divided into nine provinces, with of coastline on the Atlantic and Indian oceans...
responded to anti-apartheid embargoes by switching from imported crude oil to coal liquefaction
Coal liquefaction
-Methods:The liquefaction processes are classified as direct conversion to liquids processes and indirect conversion to liquids processeses. Direct processes are carbonization and hydrogenation.-Pyrolysis and carbonization processes:...
producing gasoline and diesel profitably from coal and natural gas using Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. The EIA estimates global coal-to-liquids production will climb to 600000 oilbbl/d in 2015 and 2400000 oilbbl/d in 2030.
Criticism
Environmental economists and critics of globalized capitalism take issue with this theory for a number of reasons. Environmentalists disagree with Solow's conclusion about the role of technology because it neglects to consider the increases in exploitation of natural resources which may be responsible for much of the growth attributed to technology. Anti-globalists apply a similar argument, but tend to focus on exploitation of third world societies rather than the environment.The theory also neglects to account for certain requisite properties of the resources in question and the development of necessary infrastructure. It may be possible to design a car to run on hydrogen, but widescale construction of a hydrogen infrastructure is a far more complex problem, especially in a scenario in which the major resource is already becoming scarce.