Victorian state election, 2006
Encyclopedia
An election for the 56th Parliament of Victoria
took place on Saturday, 25 November 2006. Just over 3 million Victorians
registered to vote elected 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and, for the first time, 40 members to the Legislative Council
under a proportional representation
system. The election was conducted by the independent Victorian Electoral Commission
.
The Labor Party
government of Premier Steve Bracks
, first elected in 1999, won a third consecutive term with 55 of the 88 lower house seats, down seven from the 62 Labor won in 2002. The Liberal Party
opposition
of Ted Baillieu
won 23 seats, and the National Party
led by Peter Ryan
won nine seats. One independent member was re-elected, while one lost his seat. Labor lost Bayswater
, Evelyn
, Ferntree Gully
, Hastings
, Kilsyth
, Morwell
and Narracan
.
In the Legislative Council, Labor won 19 of the 40 seats, the Liberals 15, the Greens three, the Nationals two and the Democratic Labor Party
one. This was the first time the DLP had won a seat in the Victorian Parliament since 1955.
Steve Bracks became only the second Labor Premier of Victoria to win three elections, and the first to win a third election with a large majority. Despite speculation that he would go on to become the longest-serving Labor Premier in Victoria, he resigned in July 2007 and was replaced by his treasurer John Brumby
.
The polls were open from 8 am to 6 pm, and results began to posted at about 7pm. By the close of counting at about 11 pm, the result in most Legislative Assembly seats was clear. Counting in the new Legislative Council regions, which have enrolments of over 300,000 voters, was in its early stages and the results were not clear at the close of counting.
The Parliament of Victoria
consists of the lower house Legislative Assembly
, the upper house Legislative Council
and the Queen of Australia. Eighty-eight members of the Legislative Assembly are elected to four-year terms from single-member electorates. After this election the new Legislative Council consisted of 40 members—the five members for each of the eight new regions were elected via proportional representation for four year terms.
For decades, lower house districts covering metropolitan Melbourne have always been won by either ALP or Liberal candidates. At the 2002 election, however, the Victorian Greens emerged ahead of the Liberals to challenge Labor for inner-city seats such as Melbourne
, Richmond, Brunswick
and Northcote
. The ALP was strongest, and arguably unchallenged, in most seats north and west of the Yarra River—Melbourne's traditional cultural divide.
In fact, the Liberals had not held a metropolitan seat in the western suburbs since 1996, when they lost the seat of Essendon. At the 1996 election, the Liberals also lost Ivanhoe (their remaining seat north of the Yarra—Eltham—was lost in 2002). After the 2002 election landslide, the ALP held every Melbourne seat except for a thin band of strong Liberal seats in the eastern suburbs. To win government, the Liberals needed to win back their traditional heartland seats in eastern and south-east Melbourne.
For the Liberals and Nationals to win government with a majority of lower house seats, they needed a uniform swing of nearly 8 per cent to gain 20 seats, which would result in them almost doubling their numbers.
The ALP's success in 1999 and 2002 was partly due to its success in regional Victoria. To hold onto power, the ALP sought to retain seats outside Melbourne, and to hold its eastern suburban gains in 2002.
The Liberals aimed to win back urban fringe seats in eastern Melbourne, such as Gembrook
, Hastings
and Evelyn
, and retain their marginal seats.
The Nationals had suffered heavily in recent years from the abolition of country seats they easily won, the rise of independents in Mildura
and Gippsland East
and direct competition from the Liberals. They aimed to hold on to their seven rural seats and also get members elected to the new upper house.
Under the new structure of the Legislative Council
, the number of members dropped from 44 to 40 after this election. This introduced considerable competition within all parties for preselection for Legislative Council seats. The switch from provinces electing one member at a time to regions electing five members also meant that the major parties were more likely to lose seats to smaller parties such as the Greens. The balance in the 2002-2006 Legislative Council
was ALP 24, Liberals 14, Nationals 4 and 2 independents (both of whom were former ALP members).
The Nationals leader Peter Ryan
had terminated the Coalition
agreement in mid-2000 after losing Benalla
, when it became apparent that the minority Bracks Government would serve out its term. This allowed the Nationals to maintain a distinct profile from the Liberals over the succeeding years, demonstrated during the 2002 Labor landslide when the Nationals won back Benalla.
Tensions emerged between the conservative parties over issues such as the Liberal policy of halving tolls on the EastLink freeway. Peter Ryan stated that his party did not back the policy, because it would mean public money was spent on motorists in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, at the expense of services for country Victorians.
The Nationals also took offence at then Liberal leader Robert Doyle's repeated statement that the Liberals only needed 20 seats to win government, a figure which implied the support of the Nationals.
During March 2006, Phil Honeywood
, the Deputy Opposition Leader, then Victor Perton
both announced they would not contest the next election. This contributed to ongoing speculation about Robert Doyle's leadership, during which Ted Baillieu
emerged as a possible challenger. Tensions between the Liberal factions were temporarily resolved with the appointment of Louise Asher
as deputy opposition leader, with Doyle retaining the leadership unchallenged.
Robert Doyle's media director Rob Clancy's resignation became public on 26 April 2006, two weeks after his chief of staff Ron Wilson left for a job in the private sector. The Liberal Party state president Helen Kroger
is another Doyle supporter who moved on. This string of resignations raised questions about the strength of Doyle's team in the lead up to the election. In response, Doyle denied that people were leaving because they did not think the party could win the election and that the resignations did not reflect well on the Liberals.
Strong rumours of an imminent "forced resignation" and Doyle "losing the support of the party" were aired on the front page of Melbourne's Herald Sun
newspaper on 4 May 2006. Doyle did indeed resign as both Opposition Leader and MP for Malvern that day, although he stated that the "decision was his own" and that "his best was not enough to lead the party to victory in a state election just six months away".
On 5 May 2006, it became clear that Ted Baillieu
would become Opposition and Liberal Party Leader after former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett
and Shadow Minister for Transport Terry Mulder
both withdrew from the leadership race. Baillieu was subsequently elected unopposed on 8 May 2006.
With declining voter support over the last two Victorian state elections the Nationals almost lost Third Party status in the 2002 State Election. They entered the 2006 election with 11 seats (7 in the Legislative Assembly and 4 in the Legislative Council), the minimum required to for official party status. Several of their Assembly seats were marginal, particularly Shepparton
(4.27 percent) and Benalla
(1.97 percent).
Several commentators predicted that the Nationals would face destruction at this election. The changes to the Legislative Council created large country regions which would negate the personal appeal of several candidates. Upper house member Bill Baxter
became the candidate for the lower house electorate of Benambra
in an attempt to remain in Parliament.
In the absence of a Liberal/National coalition
, preference deals between Labor and the Liberals looked set to crush Nationals representation in the Assembly as well. Leader Peter Ryan
gave what one commentator called "the speech of the campaign thus far" on 16 November, when he lambasted the major parties for their (perceived) action against the Nationals
. The party went on to win an additional two seats.
The Greens' Greg Barber
, former City of Yarra mayor, won the fourth seat in the upper house region of Northern Metropolitan, where the Greens were considered most likely to win their first seat in the Victorian Parliament. Sue Pennicuik
, previously co-covener of the state party, also won the fourth upper house seat Southern Metropolitan region. Colleen Hartland
won an upper house seat as well, the fifth seat in the Western Metropolitan Region. Bill Pemberton was preselected as the lead upper house candidate in the Eastern Metropolitan Region but didn't manage to get elected.
In the lower house, Dr Richard DiNatale needed a 2.4 percent swing in the seat of Melbourne to unseat Labor's cabinet minister Bronwyn Pike
, but wasn't successful in taking the seat from her, although he came quite close. Gurm Sekhon
also wasn't successful in winning a seat, he needed a 3.1 percent swing in the seat of Richmond to unseat Labor's Richard Wynne
.
The two current independent lower house MPs, Russell Savage
(Mildura
) and Craig Ingram
(Gippsland East
) had comfortable margins and were therefore considered highly likely to be re-elected. However, Russell Savage lost his seat to the Nationals, with the planned Nowingi toxic waste dump in the electorate cited as one of the main factors contributing to his defeat.
The fate of the two independent upper house MPs was less clear. Maverick Labor-turned-independent MLC Dianne Hadden
attempted to shift to the lower house and run in Ballarat East
against the incumbent Labor MP Geoff Howard
, but no polling was carried out as to the potential result. Liberal-turned-independent Andrew Olexander
attempted to retain his seat in the Legislative Council, having attempted to build a profile for himself after being expelled from the Liberal Party over disputes stemming from a drink driving conviction.
and published in The Australian
is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes
usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error
at ±3 percent.
Parliament of Victoria
The Parliament of Victoria is the bicameral legislature of the Australian state of Victoria. It follows a Westminster-derived parliamentary system and consists of The Queen, represented by the Governor of Victoria; the Legislative Council ; and the Legislative Assembly...
took place on Saturday, 25 November 2006. Just over 3 million Victorians
Victoria (Australia)
Victoria is the second most populous state in Australia. Geographically the smallest mainland state, Victoria is bordered by New South Wales, South Australia, and Tasmania on Boundary Islet to the north, west and south respectively....
registered to vote elected 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and, for the first time, 40 members to the Legislative Council
Victorian Legislative Council
The Victorian Legislative Council, is the upper of the two houses of the Parliament of Victoria, Australia; the lower house being the Legislative Assembly. Both houses sit in Parliament House in Spring Street, Melbourne. The Legislative Council serves as a house of review, in a similar fashion to...
under a proportional representation
Single transferable vote
The single transferable vote is a voting system designed to achieve proportional representation through preferential voting. Under STV, an elector's vote is initially allocated to his or her most preferred candidate, and then, after candidates have been either elected or eliminated, any surplus or...
system. The election was conducted by the independent Victorian Electoral Commission
Victorian Electoral Commission
The Victorian Electoral Commission , or VEC, is the government agency responsible for the running of state, municipal and various non-government elections in Victoria.-An Independent Agency:...
.
The Labor Party
Australian Labor Party
The Australian Labor Party is an Australian political party. It has been the governing party of the Commonwealth of Australia since the 2007 federal election. Julia Gillard is the party's federal parliamentary leader and Prime Minister of Australia...
government of Premier Steve Bracks
Steve Bracks
Stephen Philip Bracks AC is a former Australian politician and the 44th Premier of Victoria. He first won the electoral district of Williamstown in 1994 for the Australian Labor Party, and was party leader and Premier from 1999 to 2007....
, first elected in 1999, won a third consecutive term with 55 of the 88 lower house seats, down seven from the 62 Labor won in 2002. The Liberal Party
Liberal Party of Australia
The Liberal Party of Australia is an Australian political party.Founded a year after the 1943 federal election to replace the United Australia Party, the centre-right Liberal Party typically competes with the centre-left Australian Labor Party for political office...
opposition
Opposition (parliamentary)
Parliamentary opposition is a form of political opposition to a designated government, particularly in a Westminster-based parliamentary system. Note that this article uses the term government as it is used in Parliamentary systems, i.e. meaning the administration or the cabinet rather than the state...
of Ted Baillieu
Ted Baillieu
Edward Norman "Ted" Baillieu MLA is an Australian politician. He is currently the Premier of Victoria and the member for the Legislative Assembly seat of Hawthorn...
won 23 seats, and the National Party
National Party of Australia
The National Party of Australia is an Australian political party.Traditionally representing graziers, farmers and rural voters generally, it began as the The Country Party, but adopted the name The National Country Party in 1975, changed to The National Party of Australia in 1982. The party is...
led by Peter Ryan
Peter Ryan (politician)
Peter Julian Ryan is an Australian politician and leader of the National Party in Victoria. He has represented the electoral district of Gippsland South since 1992, and has been the Deputy Premier of Victoria, Minister for Police as well as the Minister for Rural and Regional Development since 2...
won nine seats. One independent member was re-elected, while one lost his seat. Labor lost Bayswater
Electoral district of Bayswater
The Electoral district of Bayswater is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It covers the suburbs of Bayswater, Heathmont and Wantirna as well as parts of other neighbouring suburbs in outer eastern Melbourne....
, Evelyn
Electoral district of Evelyn
The Electoral district of Evelyn is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly covering the urban fringe north east of Melbourne. It was first proclaimed in 1859.The seat has shrunk considerably in size as the eastern suburbs of Melbourne grew...
, Ferntree Gully
Electoral district of Ferntree Gully
The Electoral district of Ferntree Gully is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It was created in 2002 as a replacement for the abolished electorate of Knox....
, Hastings
Electoral district of Hastings
The Electoral district of Hastings is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It was created prior to the 2002 election due to population increases in Melbourne's outer south east...
, Kilsyth
Electoral district of Kilsyth
Kilsyth is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. It is a 41 km² electorate located in the outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne, encompassing the suburbs of Bayswater North and Croydon South and parts of the suburbs of Kilsyth, Lilydale and Montrose...
, Morwell
Electoral district of Morwell
The Electoral district of Morwell is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It covers the regional centres of Morwell and Traralgon as well as the surrounding rural areas in the middle of Gippsland....
and Narracan
Electoral district of Narracan
The Electoral district of Narracan is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It was first proclaimed in 1967 and has usually been held by the Liberal Party....
.
In the Legislative Council, Labor won 19 of the 40 seats, the Liberals 15, the Greens three, the Nationals two and the Democratic Labor Party
Democratic Labor Party
The Democratic Labor Party is a political party in Australia that espouses social conservatism and opposes neo-liberalism. The first "DLP" Senator in decades, party vice-president John Madigan was elected to the Australian Senate with 2.3 percent of the primary vote in Victoria at the 2010 federal...
one. This was the first time the DLP had won a seat in the Victorian Parliament since 1955.
Steve Bracks became only the second Labor Premier of Victoria to win three elections, and the first to win a third election with a large majority. Despite speculation that he would go on to become the longest-serving Labor Premier in Victoria, he resigned in July 2007 and was replaced by his treasurer John Brumby
John Brumby
John Mansfield Brumby , is an Australian Labor Party politician who was Premier of Victoria from 2007 to 2010. He became Premier after the resignation of Steve Bracks. He also served as the Minister for Veterans' Affairs and the Minister for Multicultural Affairs. He contested his first election...
.
Results
Legislative Assembly
|}Legislative Council
| Votes Cast | 3,110,172 | Turnout | 92.73 | |
| Informal Votes | 133,243 | Informal | 4.28 | |
| Party | Primary Votes | % | Seats | |
| Australian Labor Party Australian Labor Party The Australian Labor Party is an Australian political party. It has been the governing party of the Commonwealth of Australia since the 2007 federal election. Julia Gillard is the party's federal parliamentary leader and Prime Minister of Australia... |
1,234,082 | 41.45 | 19 | |
| Liberal Party of Australia Liberal Party of Australia The Liberal Party of Australia is an Australian political party.Founded a year after the 1943 federal election to replace the United Australia Party, the centre-right Liberal Party typically competes with the centre-left Australian Labor Party for political office... |
1,028,421 | 34.55 | 15 | |
| Australian Greens Australian Greens The Australian Greens, commonly known as The Greens, is an Australian green political party.The party was formed in 1992; however, its origins can be traced to the early environmental movement in Australia and the formation of the United Tasmania Group , the first Green party in the world, which... |
314,847 | 10.58 | 3 | |
| National Party of Australia National Party of Australia The National Party of Australia is an Australian political party.Traditionally representing graziers, farmers and rural voters generally, it began as the The Country Party, but adopted the name The National Country Party in 1975, changed to The National Party of Australia in 1982. The party is... |
131,946 | 4.43 | 2 | |
| Family First Family First Party The Family First Party is a socially conservative minor political party in Australia. It has two members in the South Australian Legislative Council... |
114,739 | 3.85 | 0 | |
| Democratic Labor Party Democratic Labor Party The Democratic Labor Party is a political party in Australia that espouses social conservatism and opposes neo-liberalism. The first "DLP" Senator in decades, party vice-president John Madigan was elected to the Australian Senate with 2.3 percent of the primary vote in Victoria at the 2010 federal... |
58,722 | 1.97 | 1 | |
| Other Candidates | 94,172 | 3.17 | 0 | |
| Total | 2,976,929 | 40 | ||
Seats changing hands
| Seat | Pre-2006 | Swing | Post-2006 | ||||||
| Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Member | Party | ||||
| Bayswater Electoral district of Bayswater The Electoral district of Bayswater is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It covers the suburbs of Bayswater, Heathmont and Wantirna as well as parts of other neighbouring suburbs in outer eastern Melbourne.... |
Labor | Peter Lockwood Peter Lockwood Peter Lockwood is a former Australian politician. He was a Labor Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly, for a single term from 2002 to 2006.... |
2.7 | 5.4 | 2.7 | Heidi Victoria Heidi Victoria Heidi Victoria is a member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly representing Bayswater for the Liberal Party of Australia.- Early life :... |
Liberal | ||
| Evelyn Electoral district of Evelyn The Electoral district of Evelyn is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly covering the urban fringe north east of Melbourne. It was first proclaimed in 1859.The seat has shrunk considerably in size as the eastern suburbs of Melbourne grew... |
Labor | Heather McTaggart Heather McTaggart Heather McTaggart is an Australian politician. A member of the Australian Labor Party, she represented the electoral district of Evelyn in the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 2002 to 2006.... |
0.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | Christine Fyffe Christine Fyffe Christine Ann Fyffe is an Australian politician. She has been a Liberal member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 2006, representing Evelyn.-Personal life:... |
Liberal | ||
| Hastings Electoral district of Hastings The Electoral district of Hastings is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It was created prior to the 2002 election due to population increases in Melbourne's outer south east... |
Labor | Rosy Buchanan Rosy Buchanan Rosalyn Buchanan , Australian politician was an Australian Labor Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly.Before entering state politics, Buchanan worked as a manager for Centrelink and served as a councilor for the now abolished Shire of Hastings... |
0.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | Neale Burgess Neale Burgess Neale Ronald Burgess is an Australian politician. He has been a Liberal Party of Australia member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 2006, representing the electorate of Hastings.... |
Liberal | ||
| Kilsyth Electoral district of Kilsyth Kilsyth is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. It is a 41 km² electorate located in the outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne, encompassing the suburbs of Bayswater North and Croydon South and parts of the suburbs of Kilsyth, Lilydale and Montrose... |
Labor | Dympna Beard Dympna Beard Dympna Anne Beard was an Australian politician. She was an Australian Labor Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 2002 to 2006.Beard was born in Colac, Victoria.... |
2.1 | 2.4 | 0.3 | David Hodgett David Hodgett David Hodgett is an Australian politician. He has been a Liberal member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly representing the seat of Kilsyth since 2006.... |
Liberal | ||
| Mildura Electoral district of Mildura Mildura is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. It is a 27,162 km² rural electorate in the far-north-west of the state, encompassing the regional towns of Hopetoun, Mildura, Ouyen, Red Cliffs and Robinvale... |
Independent | Russell Savage Russell Savage Russell Irwin Savage , Australian politician, was the independent member for the Victorian Legislative Assembly seat of Mildura from 1996 until 2006... |
18.4 | 24.3 | 5.9 | Peter Crisp Peter Crisp Peter Crisp is an Australian politician and member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 2006. He was formerly a Wentworth Shire Councillor.... |
National | ||
| Morwell Electoral district of Morwell The Electoral district of Morwell is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It covers the regional centres of Morwell and Traralgon as well as the surrounding rural areas in the middle of Gippsland.... |
Labor | Brendan Jenkins Brendan Jenkins Brendan James Jenkins is the former Australian Labor Party member for Morwell in the Victorian Legislative Assembly. Jenkins lost his seat to Nationals candidate Russell Northe after a swing to the Nationals in the 2006 election.-References:... |
4.9* | 52.4 | 2.4 | Russell Northe Russell Northe Russell Northe, born 6 February 1966, is an Australian politician and a current member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. Prior to winning preselection by The Nationals for the seat of Morwell, he was a local Australian rules footballer.... |
National | ||
| Narracan Electoral district of Narracan The Electoral district of Narracan is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It was first proclaimed in 1967 and has usually been held by the Liberal Party.... |
Labor | Ian Maxfield Ian Maxfield Ian John Maxfield is a former Australian politician.Born in Warragul, Victoria, he graduated from Drouin High School in 1976. In 1979 he received an A Grade Electrical Mechanic and Motor Control from Noble Park TAFE and became an electrician. In 1986 he became an organiser with the Shop Assistants... |
6.8 | 10.3 | 3.5 | Gary Blackwood Gary Blackwood (politician) Gary John Blackwood is an Australian politician. He has been a Liberal Party of Australia member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly since November 2006, representing the electorate of Narracan.-Early life:... |
Liberal | ||
- *Morwell'sElectoral district of MorwellThe Electoral district of Morwell is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It covers the regional centres of Morwell and Traralgon as well as the surrounding rural areas in the middle of Gippsland....
first margin figure is Labor vs. Liberal.
Key dates
Terms are now fixed at four years. Key dates for the election were:- 31 October: Dissolution of Parliament and writs for the election lodged
- 7 November: Close of rolls, voters had until 8 pm to enrol to vote.
- 9 November: Close of nominations for party candidates
- 10 November: Close of nominations for independents
- 25 November: Election day
The polls were open from 8 am to 6 pm, and results began to posted at about 7pm. By the close of counting at about 11 pm, the result in most Legislative Assembly seats was clear. Counting in the new Legislative Council regions, which have enrolments of over 300,000 voters, was in its early stages and the results were not clear at the close of counting.
Background
| 2002 composition of the Parliament of Victoria | ||
|---|---|---|
| Political Party |
Legislative Assembly |
Legislative Council |
| Labor | 62 | 24 |
| Liberal | 17 | 14 |
| National | 7 | 4 |
| Independent | 2 | 2 |
| Source: Victorian Electoral Commission | ||
The Parliament of Victoria
Parliament of Victoria
The Parliament of Victoria is the bicameral legislature of the Australian state of Victoria. It follows a Westminster-derived parliamentary system and consists of The Queen, represented by the Governor of Victoria; the Legislative Council ; and the Legislative Assembly...
consists of the lower house Legislative Assembly
Victorian Legislative Assembly
The Victorian Legislative Assembly is the lower house of the Parliament of Victoria in Australia. Together with the Victorian Legislative Council, the upper house, it sits in Parliament House in the state capital, Melbourne.-History:...
, the upper house Legislative Council
Victorian Legislative Council
The Victorian Legislative Council, is the upper of the two houses of the Parliament of Victoria, Australia; the lower house being the Legislative Assembly. Both houses sit in Parliament House in Spring Street, Melbourne. The Legislative Council serves as a house of review, in a similar fashion to...
and the Queen of Australia. Eighty-eight members of the Legislative Assembly are elected to four-year terms from single-member electorates. After this election the new Legislative Council consisted of 40 members—the five members for each of the eight new regions were elected via proportional representation for four year terms.
For decades, lower house districts covering metropolitan Melbourne have always been won by either ALP or Liberal candidates. At the 2002 election, however, the Victorian Greens emerged ahead of the Liberals to challenge Labor for inner-city seats such as Melbourne
Electoral district of Melbourne
The Electoral district of Melbourne is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is currently based around the localities of Carlton, North Carlton, Melbourne, East Melbourne, West Melbourne, North Melbourne, Parkville, Newmarket, Kensington and Flemington, and includes Melbourne...
, Richmond, Brunswick
Electoral district of Brunswick
The Electoral district of Brunswick is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is located in the northern suburbs of Melbourne and is based around the suburb of Brunswick....
and Northcote
Electoral district of Northcote
The Electoral district of Northcote is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It currently covers the suburbs of Alphington, Fairfield, Northcote, Thornbury, and part of Preston. It lies on the northern bank of the Yarra River between the Merri and Darebin creeks.The seat...
. The ALP was strongest, and arguably unchallenged, in most seats north and west of the Yarra River—Melbourne's traditional cultural divide.
In fact, the Liberals had not held a metropolitan seat in the western suburbs since 1996, when they lost the seat of Essendon. At the 1996 election, the Liberals also lost Ivanhoe (their remaining seat north of the Yarra—Eltham—was lost in 2002). After the 2002 election landslide, the ALP held every Melbourne seat except for a thin band of strong Liberal seats in the eastern suburbs. To win government, the Liberals needed to win back their traditional heartland seats in eastern and south-east Melbourne.
For the Liberals and Nationals to win government with a majority of lower house seats, they needed a uniform swing of nearly 8 per cent to gain 20 seats, which would result in them almost doubling their numbers.
The ALP's success in 1999 and 2002 was partly due to its success in regional Victoria. To hold onto power, the ALP sought to retain seats outside Melbourne, and to hold its eastern suburban gains in 2002.
The Liberals aimed to win back urban fringe seats in eastern Melbourne, such as Gembrook
Electoral district of Gembrook
The Electoral district of Gembrook is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is situated just outside metropolitan Melbourne...
, Hastings
Electoral district of Hastings
The Electoral district of Hastings is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It was created prior to the 2002 election due to population increases in Melbourne's outer south east...
and Evelyn
Electoral district of Evelyn
The Electoral district of Evelyn is an electorate of the Victorian Legislative Assembly covering the urban fringe north east of Melbourne. It was first proclaimed in 1859.The seat has shrunk considerably in size as the eastern suburbs of Melbourne grew...
, and retain their marginal seats.
The Nationals had suffered heavily in recent years from the abolition of country seats they easily won, the rise of independents in Mildura
Electoral district of Mildura
Mildura is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. It is a 27,162 km² rural electorate in the far-north-west of the state, encompassing the regional towns of Hopetoun, Mildura, Ouyen, Red Cliffs and Robinvale...
and Gippsland East
Electoral district of Gippsland East
The Electoral district of Gippsland East is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It covers most of eastern Victoria and includes the towns of Bairnsdale, Lakes Entrance, Orbost, Omeo, Maffra and Heyfield....
and direct competition from the Liberals. They aimed to hold on to their seven rural seats and also get members elected to the new upper house.
Under the new structure of the Legislative Council
Victorian Legislative Council
The Victorian Legislative Council, is the upper of the two houses of the Parliament of Victoria, Australia; the lower house being the Legislative Assembly. Both houses sit in Parliament House in Spring Street, Melbourne. The Legislative Council serves as a house of review, in a similar fashion to...
, the number of members dropped from 44 to 40 after this election. This introduced considerable competition within all parties for preselection for Legislative Council seats. The switch from provinces electing one member at a time to regions electing five members also meant that the major parties were more likely to lose seats to smaller parties such as the Greens. The balance in the 2002-2006 Legislative Council
Members of the Victorian Legislative Council, 2002-2006
This is a list of members of the Victorian Legislative Council from 2002 to 2006, as elected at the 2002 state election:...
was ALP 24, Liberals 14, Nationals 4 and 2 independents (both of whom were former ALP members).
State of the parties
With a huge majority in the lower house, the Bracks Labor government was expected to be re-elected.The Nationals leader Peter Ryan
Peter Ryan (politician)
Peter Julian Ryan is an Australian politician and leader of the National Party in Victoria. He has represented the electoral district of Gippsland South since 1992, and has been the Deputy Premier of Victoria, Minister for Police as well as the Minister for Rural and Regional Development since 2...
had terminated the Coalition
Coalition (Australia)
The Coalition in Australian politics refers to a group of centre-right parties that has existed in the form of a coalition agreement since 1922...
agreement in mid-2000 after losing Benalla
Electoral district of Benalla
Benalla is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. The electorate covers a rural area of 17,120 km², and includes the towns of Benalla, Bright, Eildon, Euroa, Mansfield, Mount Beauty, Murchison, Myrtleford, Nagambie and Violet Town...
, when it became apparent that the minority Bracks Government would serve out its term. This allowed the Nationals to maintain a distinct profile from the Liberals over the succeeding years, demonstrated during the 2002 Labor landslide when the Nationals won back Benalla.
Tensions emerged between the conservative parties over issues such as the Liberal policy of halving tolls on the EastLink freeway. Peter Ryan stated that his party did not back the policy, because it would mean public money was spent on motorists in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, at the expense of services for country Victorians.
The Nationals also took offence at then Liberal leader Robert Doyle's repeated statement that the Liberals only needed 20 seats to win government, a figure which implied the support of the Nationals.
During March 2006, Phil Honeywood
Phil Honeywood
Phillip Neville "Phil" Honeywood is a former Australian politician.Born in Sydney, New South Wales, he received his Higher School Certificate in 1977 and the following year was a Rotary Youth Exchange student to Gakushuin High School in Tokyo...
, the Deputy Opposition Leader, then Victor Perton
Victor Perton
Victor Perton is a former Australian parliamentarian. He is the Commissioner to the Americas based in San Francisco representing the Australian State of Victoria....
both announced they would not contest the next election. This contributed to ongoing speculation about Robert Doyle's leadership, during which Ted Baillieu
Ted Baillieu
Edward Norman "Ted" Baillieu MLA is an Australian politician. He is currently the Premier of Victoria and the member for the Legislative Assembly seat of Hawthorn...
emerged as a possible challenger. Tensions between the Liberal factions were temporarily resolved with the appointment of Louise Asher
Louise Asher
Louise Asher is an Australian politician representing the electoral district of Brighton for the Liberal Party of Australia. She is currently the Victorian Minister for Tourism and Major Events as well as Minister for Innovation, Services and Small Business since 2 December 2010 in the Baillieu...
as deputy opposition leader, with Doyle retaining the leadership unchallenged.
Robert Doyle's media director Rob Clancy's resignation became public on 26 April 2006, two weeks after his chief of staff Ron Wilson left for a job in the private sector. The Liberal Party state president Helen Kroger
Helen Kroger
Helen Kroger is an Australian politician. She has been a Liberal member of the Australian Senate since July 2008, representing the state of Victoria...
is another Doyle supporter who moved on. This string of resignations raised questions about the strength of Doyle's team in the lead up to the election. In response, Doyle denied that people were leaving because they did not think the party could win the election and that the resignations did not reflect well on the Liberals.
Strong rumours of an imminent "forced resignation" and Doyle "losing the support of the party" were aired on the front page of Melbourne's Herald Sun
Herald Sun
The Herald Sun is a morning tabloid newspaper based in Melbourne, Australia. It is published by The Herald and Weekly Times, a subsidiary of News Limited, itself a subsidiary of News Corporation. It is available for purchase throughout Melbourne, Regional Victoria, Tasmania, the Australian Capital...
newspaper on 4 May 2006. Doyle did indeed resign as both Opposition Leader and MP for Malvern that day, although he stated that the "decision was his own" and that "his best was not enough to lead the party to victory in a state election just six months away".
On 5 May 2006, it became clear that Ted Baillieu
Ted Baillieu
Edward Norman "Ted" Baillieu MLA is an Australian politician. He is currently the Premier of Victoria and the member for the Legislative Assembly seat of Hawthorn...
would become Opposition and Liberal Party Leader after former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett
Jeff Kennett
Jeffrey Gibb Kennett AC , a former Australian politician, was the Premier of Victoria between 1992 and 1999. He is currently the President of Hawthorn Football Club. He is the founding Chairman of beyondblue, a national depression initiative.- Early life :Kennett was born in Melbourne on 2 March...
and Shadow Minister for Transport Terry Mulder
Terry Mulder
Terence Wynne "Terry" Mulder is an Australian politician. He has been a Liberal member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 1999, representing the Colac-based electorate of Polwarth. He is currently Minister for Transport and Roads.Mulder was born in Colac, and attended Trinity College, but...
both withdrew from the leadership race. Baillieu was subsequently elected unopposed on 8 May 2006.
With declining voter support over the last two Victorian state elections the Nationals almost lost Third Party status in the 2002 State Election. They entered the 2006 election with 11 seats (7 in the Legislative Assembly and 4 in the Legislative Council), the minimum required to for official party status. Several of their Assembly seats were marginal, particularly Shepparton
Electoral district of Shepparton
The Electoral district of Shepparton is a rural Lower House electoral district of the Victorian Parliament. It is located within the Northern Victoria Region of the Legislative Council....
(4.27 percent) and Benalla
Electoral district of Benalla
Benalla is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. The electorate covers a rural area of 17,120 km², and includes the towns of Benalla, Bright, Eildon, Euroa, Mansfield, Mount Beauty, Murchison, Myrtleford, Nagambie and Violet Town...
(1.97 percent).
Several commentators predicted that the Nationals would face destruction at this election. The changes to the Legislative Council created large country regions which would negate the personal appeal of several candidates. Upper house member Bill Baxter
Bill Baxter
William Robert Baxter was a former Australian politician and the current Victorian State President of The Nationals. He was the Nationals member of the Victorian Legislative Council representing North Eastern Province from June 1978 until November 2006...
became the candidate for the lower house electorate of Benambra
Electoral district of Benambra
The Electoral district of Benambra is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It is located in north-east Victoria and includes the towns of Chiltern, Wodonga, Yackandandah, Beechworth, Tallangatta, and Corryong...
in an attempt to remain in Parliament.
In the absence of a Liberal/National coalition
Coalition (Australia)
The Coalition in Australian politics refers to a group of centre-right parties that has existed in the form of a coalition agreement since 1922...
, preference deals between Labor and the Liberals looked set to crush Nationals representation in the Assembly as well. Leader Peter Ryan
Peter Ryan (politician)
Peter Julian Ryan is an Australian politician and leader of the National Party in Victoria. He has represented the electoral district of Gippsland South since 1992, and has been the Deputy Premier of Victoria, Minister for Police as well as the Minister for Rural and Regional Development since 2...
gave what one commentator called "the speech of the campaign thus far" on 16 November, when he lambasted the major parties for their (perceived) action against the Nationals
National Party of Australia
The National Party of Australia is an Australian political party.Traditionally representing graziers, farmers and rural voters generally, it began as the The Country Party, but adopted the name The National Country Party in 1975, changed to The National Party of Australia in 1982. The party is...
. The party went on to win an additional two seats.
The Greens' Greg Barber
Greg Barber
Greg Barber is an Australian politician, and Greens member of the Victorian Legislative Council.-Early career:Barber obtained a Masters in Business Administration from the Melbourne Business School and was a successful investor....
, former City of Yarra mayor, won the fourth seat in the upper house region of Northern Metropolitan, where the Greens were considered most likely to win their first seat in the Victorian Parliament. Sue Pennicuik
Sue Pennicuik
Susan Margaret "Sue" Pennicuik is an Australian politician, and Greens member of the Victorian Legislative Council.-Early career:...
, previously co-covener of the state party, also won the fourth upper house seat Southern Metropolitan region. Colleen Hartland
Colleen Hartland
Colleen Hartland is an Australian politician, and a Greens member of the Victorian Legislative Council.-Early career:...
won an upper house seat as well, the fifth seat in the Western Metropolitan Region. Bill Pemberton was preselected as the lead upper house candidate in the Eastern Metropolitan Region but didn't manage to get elected.
In the lower house, Dr Richard DiNatale needed a 2.4 percent swing in the seat of Melbourne to unseat Labor's cabinet minister Bronwyn Pike
Bronwyn Pike
Bronwyn Pike is an Australian politician. She was Minister for Education in Victoria in the Brumby Government, and is the State Member of Parliament for Melbourne.-Early life:...
, but wasn't successful in taking the seat from her, although he came quite close. Gurm Sekhon
Gurm Sekhon
Gurm Sekhon is an elected Councillor of the City of Yarra local government area, representing the Melba Ward, which covers the inner suburbs of Richmond and Burnley in Melbourne, Australia...
also wasn't successful in winning a seat, he needed a 3.1 percent swing in the seat of Richmond to unseat Labor's Richard Wynne
Richard Wynne
Hon. Richard William Wynne MLA is an Australian politician and former Minister for Housing, Minister for Local Government and Minister for Aboriginal Affairs in the State Cabinet of the Government of Victoria, and has held the Legislative Assembly seat of Richmond in the Victorian Parliament since...
.
The two current independent lower house MPs, Russell Savage
Russell Savage
Russell Irwin Savage , Australian politician, was the independent member for the Victorian Legislative Assembly seat of Mildura from 1996 until 2006...
(Mildura
Electoral district of Mildura
Mildura is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. It is a 27,162 km² rural electorate in the far-north-west of the state, encompassing the regional towns of Hopetoun, Mildura, Ouyen, Red Cliffs and Robinvale...
) and Craig Ingram
Craig Ingram
Craig Ingram is a former Australian politician, and was the Independent Member of Parliament for Gippsland East in the Victorian Legislative Assembly from 1999 to 2010.-Personal life:...
(Gippsland East
Electoral district of Gippsland East
The Electoral district of Gippsland East is an electoral district of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. It covers most of eastern Victoria and includes the towns of Bairnsdale, Lakes Entrance, Orbost, Omeo, Maffra and Heyfield....
) had comfortable margins and were therefore considered highly likely to be re-elected. However, Russell Savage lost his seat to the Nationals, with the planned Nowingi toxic waste dump in the electorate cited as one of the main factors contributing to his defeat.
The fate of the two independent upper house MPs was less clear. Maverick Labor-turned-independent MLC Dianne Hadden
Dianne Hadden
Dianne Gladys Hadden was an Australian politician. She was an independent member of the Victorian Legislative Council since April 2004, after resigning from the Australian Labor Party, which she previously represented since 1999...
attempted to shift to the lower house and run in Ballarat East
Electoral district of Ballarat East
Ballarat East is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Victoria. It is a 3,323 km² part-urban and part-rural electorate covering areas to the east of the regional centre of Ballarat...
against the incumbent Labor MP Geoff Howard
Geoff Howard
Geoffrey Kemp "Geoff" Howard is an Australian politician. He has been an Australian Labor Party member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 1999, representing Ballarat East....
, but no polling was carried out as to the potential result. Liberal-turned-independent Andrew Olexander
Andrew Olexander
Andrew Phillip Olexander is an Australian politician. He was an independent member of the Victorian Legislative Council representing Silvan Province from November 2005 to November 2006, after being expelled from the parliamentary Liberal Party, which he had represented since 1999.His career has...
attempted to retain his seat in the Legislative Council, having attempted to build a profile for himself after being expelled from the Liberal Party over disputes stemming from a drink driving conviction.
Polling
Polling conducted by NewspollNewspoll
Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian....
and published in The Australian
The Australian
The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly....
is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes
Sample size
Sample size determination is the act of choosing the number of observations to include in a statistical sample. The sample size is an important feature of any empirical study in which the goal is to make inferences about a population from a sample...
usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error
Margin of error
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. The larger the margin of error, the less faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures; that is, the figures for the whole population...
at ±3 percent.
| Primary vote | 2PP vote Two-party-preferred vote In politics, the two-party-preferred vote , or two-candidate-preferred vote , in an election or opinion poll uses preferential voting to express the electoral result after the distribution of preferences... |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | Lib | Nat | Grn | Oth | ALP | Lib | |||
| 8 – 9 Nov 2006 | 44% | 36% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 55% | 45% | ||
| Sep – Oct 2006 | 43% | 35% | 4% | 7% | 11% | 54% | 46% | ||
| Jul – Aug 2006 | 46% | 36% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 55% | 45% | ||
| May – Jun 2006 | 45% | 32% | 4% | 5% | 14% | 57% | 43% | ||
| Mar – Apr 2006 | 44% | 34% | 4% | 7% | 11% | 56% | 44% | ||
| Jan – Feb 2006 | 44% | 36% | 4% | 5% | 11% | 56% | 44% | ||
| Nov – Dec 2005 | 41% | 36% | 4% | 7% | 12% | 54% | 46% | ||
| Sep – Oct 2005 | 43% | 38% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 55% | 45% | ||
| Jul – Aug 2005 | 42% | 38% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 54% | 46% | ||
| May – Jun 2005 | 44% | 35% | 3% | 9% | 9% | 56% | 44% | ||
| 2002 Election | 48.0% | 33.9% | 4.3% | 9.7% | 4.1% | 57.8% | 42.2% | ||
| Source: Newspoll | |||||||||
| Labor Bracks |
Liberal Baillieu |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 – 9 Nov 2006 | 56% | 28% | |||||||
| Sep – Oct 2006 | 51% | 25% | |||||||
| Jul – Aug 2006 | 50% | 25% | |||||||
| May – Jun 2006 | 49% | 24% | |||||||
| Mar – Apr 2006 | 60% | 15%* | |||||||
| Jan – Feb 2006 | 58% | 17%* | |||||||
| Nov – Dec 2005 | 55% | 19%* | |||||||
| Sep – Oct 2005 | 55% | 21%* | |||||||
| Jul – Aug 2005 | 51% | 22%* | |||||||
| May – Jun 2005 | 57% | 19%* | |||||||
| Source: Newspoll * Results are for former Liberal leader Robert Doyle. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. |
|||||||||
External links
- Victorian Electoral Commission
- Victoria Decides, Herald SunHerald SunThe Herald Sun is a morning tabloid newspaper based in Melbourne, Australia. It is published by The Herald and Weekly Times, a subsidiary of News Limited, itself a subsidiary of News Corporation. It is available for purchase throughout Melbourne, Regional Victoria, Tasmania, the Australian Capital...
- State Election '06, The AgeThe AgeThe Age is a daily broadsheet newspaper, which has been published in Melbourne, Australia since 1854. Owned and published by Fairfax Media, The Age primarily serves Victoria, but is also available for purchase in Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and border regions of South Australia and...
. Includes a manifesto for Victoria. - Antony Green ABC Election Guide
- Poll Bludger Election Guide
- Mary Bolling Herald Sun election blog
- Herald Sun election blog