TechCast Project
Encyclopedia
The TechCast Project calls itself a “virtual think tank
tracking the Technology Revolution. Founded at George Washington University
years ago, their website (www.TechCast.org) pools background data and the knowledge of 100 experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields and to assess their economic and social impact. Results are subscribed to corporation
s, government
s, and the public around the globe, and the forecasting
system is considered one of the best in the world. Summary of recent results, color-coded by field:
The TechCast forecasting system was developed by Professor William E. Halal and his associates at George Washington University and George Mason University
. An earlier version called “The GW Forecast” was conducted by mail, but the online version has been operating since 1998. TechCast researchers and editors scan the literature and media, interview
authorities, and draw on various other sources to identify trends and background data on roughly 70 emerging technologies. This data is summarized to guide the estimates of 100 plus technology officers, research scientists and engineer
s, scholars, and other experts to estimate of the most likely year each breakthrough will occur, the potential economic demand, and experts’ confidence.
TechCast is somewhat unique in that it tries to carry forecasting to the more sophisticated level of a “global advisory service” that provides authoritative forecasts covering all fields and updated in real time. The forecasts are also validated annually by comparing them to actual arrivals over the past 20 years, showing that results are accurate within roughly +/- 3 years. The research method is quite general, so it can be used to forecast almost anything, and the process enhances understanding.
The project has been recognized as possibly the best forecasting system in the world. The U.S. national Academies cited it as one of the top-three systems available, and a Google search ranks it two or three out of five million hits. It was awarded First Prize in an AOL competition for creative IT research, and has been featured in the Washington Post, Newsweek
, The Futurist
, and scientific publications. Its panel of experts has conducted customized studies for the U.S. Federal agencies, Corning, AMD, Asian Development Bank
, Saudi Arabia
, Korea
, Singapore
, and Kuala Lumpur
.
Think tank
A think tank is an organization that conducts research and engages in advocacy in areas such as social policy, political strategy, economics, military, and technology issues. Most think tanks are non-profit organizations, which some countries such as the United States and Canada provide with tax...
tracking the Technology Revolution. Founded at George Washington University
George Washington University
The George Washington University is a private, coeducational comprehensive university located in Washington, D.C. in the United States...
years ago, their website (www.TechCast.org) pools background data and the knowledge of 100 experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields and to assess their economic and social impact. Results are subscribed to corporation
Corporation
A corporation is created under the laws of a state as a separate legal entity that has privileges and liabilities that are distinct from those of its members. There are many different forms of corporations, most of which are used to conduct business. Early corporations were established by charter...
s, government
Government
Government refers to the legislators, administrators, and arbitrators in the administrative bureaucracy who control a state at a given time, and to the system of government by which they are organized...
s, and the public around the globe, and the forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term...
system is considered one of the best in the world. Summary of recent results, color-coded by field:
The TechCast forecasting system was developed by Professor William E. Halal and his associates at George Washington University and George Mason University
George Mason University
George Mason University is a public university based in unincorporated Fairfax County, Virginia, United States, south of and adjacent to the city of Fairfax. Additional campuses are located nearby in Arlington County, Prince William County, and Loudoun County...
. An earlier version called “The GW Forecast” was conducted by mail, but the online version has been operating since 1998. TechCast researchers and editors scan the literature and media, interview
Interview
An interview is a conversation between two people where questions are asked by the interviewer to obtain information from the interviewee.- Interview as a Method for Qualitative Research:"Definition" -...
authorities, and draw on various other sources to identify trends and background data on roughly 70 emerging technologies. This data is summarized to guide the estimates of 100 plus technology officers, research scientists and engineer
Engineer
An engineer is a professional practitioner of engineering, concerned with applying scientific knowledge, mathematics and ingenuity to develop solutions for technical problems. Engineers design materials, structures, machines and systems while considering the limitations imposed by practicality,...
s, scholars, and other experts to estimate of the most likely year each breakthrough will occur, the potential economic demand, and experts’ confidence.
TechCast is somewhat unique in that it tries to carry forecasting to the more sophisticated level of a “global advisory service” that provides authoritative forecasts covering all fields and updated in real time. The forecasts are also validated annually by comparing them to actual arrivals over the past 20 years, showing that results are accurate within roughly +/- 3 years. The research method is quite general, so it can be used to forecast almost anything, and the process enhances understanding.
The project has been recognized as possibly the best forecasting system in the world. The U.S. national Academies cited it as one of the top-three systems available, and a Google search ranks it two or three out of five million hits. It was awarded First Prize in an AOL competition for creative IT research, and has been featured in the Washington Post, Newsweek
Newsweek
Newsweek is an American weekly news magazine published in New York City. It is distributed throughout the United States and internationally. It is the second-largest news weekly magazine in the U.S., having trailed Time in circulation and advertising revenue for most of its existence...
, The Futurist
The Futurist
The Futurist was an album issued by Shellac in 1997 to their friends only. The album was originally used as music for a performance by a Canadian dance troupe.-Friends Only:...
, and scientific publications. Its panel of experts has conducted customized studies for the U.S. Federal agencies, Corning, AMD, Asian Development Bank
Asian Development Bank
The Asian Development Bank is a regional development bank established on 22 August 1966 to facilitate economic development of countries in Asia...
, Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia , commonly known in British English as Saudi Arabia and in Arabic as as-Sa‘ūdiyyah , is the largest state in Western Asia by land area, constituting the bulk of the Arabian Peninsula, and the second-largest in the Arab World...
, Korea
Korea
Korea ) is an East Asian geographic region that is currently divided into two separate sovereign states — North Korea and South Korea. Located on the Korean Peninsula, Korea is bordered by the People's Republic of China to the northwest, Russia to the northeast, and is separated from Japan to the...
, Singapore
Singapore
Singapore , officially the Republic of Singapore, is a Southeast Asian city-state off the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula, north of the equator. An island country made up of 63 islands, it is separated from Malaysia by the Straits of Johor to its north and from Indonesia's Riau Islands by the...
, and Kuala Lumpur
Kuala Lumpur
Kuala Lumpur is the capital and the second largest city in Malaysia by population. The city proper, making up an area of , has a population of 1.4 million as of 2010. Greater Kuala Lumpur, also known as the Klang Valley, is an urban agglomeration of 7.2 million...
.