Sustainable growth rate
Encyclopedia
According to PIMS
(Profit Impact of Marketing Strategy) an important lever of business success is growth. Among 37 variables, growth is mentioned as one of the most important variables for success: market share, market growth, marketing expense to sales ratio or a strong market position.
The question how much growth is sustainable is answered by two concepts with different perspectives:
SGR = (pm*(1-d)*(1+L)) / (T-(pm*(1-d)*(1+L)))
In order to grow faster, the company would have to invest more equity capital, increase its financial leverage or increase the target profit margin.
The sustainable growth rate model assumes several simplifications such as depreciation
is sufficient to maintain the value of existing assets, the profit margin
remains stable (also for new businesses), the proportion of assets and sales remains stable (also for new businesses) and the company maintains its current capital structure and dividend payout policy.
The sustainable growth rate model has implications for valuation models, as for instance the Gordon model
and other discounted cash flow
models require a growth estimate that can be sustained for many years. The sustainable growth rate can be a check if business plans are reasonable.
Assessment basis: The work is based on assessments on the performance of more than 3500 stock-listed companies with an initial revenue of greater 250 million Euro globally and across industries over a period of 12 years from 1997 till 2009. Due to this long time period, the authors consider their findings as to a large extent independent of specific economic cycles.
Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Sales (ROS) and Return on Equity
(ROE) do rise with increasing revenue growth up to 10 to 25% and then fall with further increasing revenue growth rates.
Also the combined ROX-index (average of ROA, ROS and ROE) shows rises with increasing growth rates to a broad maximum in the range of 10 to 25 % revenue growth per year and falls towards higher growth rates.
The authors attribute the continuous profitability increase towards the maximum of two effects:
Beyond the profitability maximum extra efforts to handle additional growth – e.g. based on integrating new staff in large dimensions and handling culture and quality - do rise sharply and reduce overall profitability.
The combination of the patterns of revenue growth, total shareholder value creation and profitability indicates three growth zones:
Growth rates of the assessed companies are widely independent of initial company size/ market share which is in alignment with Gibrath`s law. Gibrat's law, sometimes called Gibrat's rule of proportionate growth is a rule defined by Robert Gibrat (1904-1980) stating that the size of a firm and its growth rate are independent.
Independent of industry consolidation and industry growth rate, companies in many industries with growth rates in the range of 10 to 25 % revenue growth p.a. have both, higher total shareholder value generation as well as profitability than their slower growing peers.
, constant debt to equity ratio
or constant asset to sales ratio. Therefore, general applicability of SGR concept in cases where these parameters are not stable is limited.
The Optimal Growth concept by Martin Handschuh, Hannes Lösch, Björn Heyden et al. has no restrictions to certain strategies or business model and is therefore more flexible in its applicability. However, as a broad framework, it only provides an orientation for case/company specific mid- to long-term growth target setting. Additional company and market specific considerations, e.g. market growth, growth culture, appetite for change, are required to come up with the optimal growth rate of a specific company.
Additionally, considering the increasing criticism of excessive growth and shareholder value orientation by philosophers, economists and also managers, e.g. Stéphane Hessel
, Kenneth Boulding, Jack Welsh (nowadays), one might expect that investors` investment criteria might also change in the future. This may lead to changes in the relationship of revenue growth rates and total shareholder value creation. Regular reviews of the optimal growth assessments may be used as an indicator for the development of stock markets` appetite for rapid growth.
PIMS
For the alcoholic beverage see Pimm'sPIMS may refer to:* PiM's - A popular biscuit-like cake produced by Kraft Foods' LU Brand-Institutions:*Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences*Pittsburgh Institute of Mortuary Science...
(Profit Impact of Marketing Strategy) an important lever of business success is growth. Among 37 variables, growth is mentioned as one of the most important variables for success: market share, market growth, marketing expense to sales ratio or a strong market position.
The question how much growth is sustainable is answered by two concepts with different perspectives:
- The Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) concept by Robert C. Higgins, describes optimal growth from a financial perspective assuming a given strategy with clear defined financial frame conditions/ limitations. Sustainable growth is defined as the annual percentage of increase in sales that is consistent with a defined financial policy (target debt to equity ratio, target dividend payout ratio, target profit marginProfit marginProfit margin, net margin, net profit margin or net profit ratio all refer to a measure of profitability. It is calculated by finding the net profit as a percentage of the revenue.Net profit Margin = x100...
, target ratio of total assets to net sales). This concept provides a comprehensive financial framework and formula for case/ company specific SGR calculations.
- The Optimal Growth concept by Martin Handschuh, Hannes Lösch, Björn Heyden et al. assesses sustainable growth from a total shareholder return creation and profitability perspective - independent of a given strategy, business model and/ or financial frame condition. This concept is based on statistical long-term assessments and is enriched by case examples. It provides an orientation frame for case/ company specific mid- to long-term growth target setting.
Sustainable growth rates (SGR) from a financial perspective
The sustainable growth rate according to Robert C. Higgins is the maximum growth rate a company can achieve consistent with the firm`s established financial policy. Basically, it is calculated as:SGR = (pm*(1-d)*(1+L)) / (T-(pm*(1-d)*(1+L)))
- pm is the existing and target profit margin
- d is the target dividend payout ratio
- L is the target total debt to equity ratio
- T is the ratio of total assets to sales
In order to grow faster, the company would have to invest more equity capital, increase its financial leverage or increase the target profit margin.
The sustainable growth rate model assumes several simplifications such as depreciation
Depreciation
Depreciation refers to two very different but related concepts:# the decrease in value of assets , and# the allocation of the cost of assets to periods in which the assets are used ....
is sufficient to maintain the value of existing assets, the profit margin
Profit margin
Profit margin, net margin, net profit margin or net profit ratio all refer to a measure of profitability. It is calculated by finding the net profit as a percentage of the revenue.Net profit Margin = x100...
remains stable (also for new businesses), the proportion of assets and sales remains stable (also for new businesses) and the company maintains its current capital structure and dividend payout policy.
The sustainable growth rate model has implications for valuation models, as for instance the Gordon model
Gordon model
The Gordon growth model is a variant of the discounted cash flow model, a method for valuing a stock or business. Often used to provide difficult-to-resolve valuation issues for litigation, tax planning, and business transactions that don't have an explicit market value. It is named after Myron J....
and other discounted cash flow
Discounted cash flow
In finance, discounted cash flow analysis is a method of valuing a project, company, or asset using the concepts of the time value of money...
models require a growth estimate that can be sustained for many years. The sustainable growth rate can be a check if business plans are reasonable.
Optimal growth rates from a total shareholder value creation and profitability perspective
Optimal Growth according to Martin Handschuh, Hannes Lösch and Björn Heyden is the growth rate which assures sustainable company development – considering the long-term relationship between revenue growth, total shareholder value creation and profitability.Assessment basis: The work is based on assessments on the performance of more than 3500 stock-listed companies with an initial revenue of greater 250 million Euro globally and across industries over a period of 12 years from 1997 till 2009. Due to this long time period, the authors consider their findings as to a large extent independent of specific economic cycles.
Relationship between revenue growth, total shareholder value creation and profitability
In the long-term and across industries, total shareholder value creation (stock price development plus dividend payments) rises steadily with increasing revenue growth rates. The more long-term revenue growth companies realize, the more investors appreciate this and the more they get rewarded.Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Sales (ROS) and Return on Equity
Return on equity
Return on equity measures the rate of return on the ownership interest of the common stock owners. It measures a firm's efficiency at generating profits from every unit of shareholders' equity . ROE shows how well a company uses investment funds to generate earnings growth...
(ROE) do rise with increasing revenue growth up to 10 to 25% and then fall with further increasing revenue growth rates.
Also the combined ROX-index (average of ROA, ROS and ROE) shows rises with increasing growth rates to a broad maximum in the range of 10 to 25 % revenue growth per year and falls towards higher growth rates.
The authors attribute the continuous profitability increase towards the maximum of two effects:
- Profitability drives growth: Companies with substantial profitability have the opportunity to invest more in additional growth.
- Growth drives profitability: Substantial growth may be a driver for additional profitability, e.g. by higher attractiveness for high performing young professionals, higher employee motivation, higher attractiveness for business partners as well as higher self-confidence.
Beyond the profitability maximum extra efforts to handle additional growth – e.g. based on integrating new staff in large dimensions and handling culture and quality - do rise sharply and reduce overall profitability.
The combination of the patterns of revenue growth, total shareholder value creation and profitability indicates three growth zones:
- Low Return: Low profitability and low value generation below 10% per year
- Long-term Sweet-Spot: Solid value generation and highest on average profitability in the revenue growth interval from 10% to 25% per year
- High Speed: Even higher total shareholder value generation however in combination with lower profitability beyond 25% per year
Growth rates of the assessed companies are widely independent of initial company size/ market share which is in alignment with Gibrath`s law. Gibrat's law, sometimes called Gibrat's rule of proportionate growth is a rule defined by Robert Gibrat (1904-1980) stating that the size of a firm and its growth rate are independent.
Independent of industry consolidation and industry growth rate, companies in many industries with growth rates in the range of 10 to 25 % revenue growth p.a. have both, higher total shareholder value generation as well as profitability than their slower growing peers.
Base strategies and growth moves
These findings do suggest tow base strategies for companies:- For companies (e.g. in established markets like central Europe and USA) with low single digit growth rates: Consider acceleration of growth given the fact that TSR and profitability are higher in the sweet-spot
- For companies (e.g. in fast growing regional markets like China with India and/ or rapidly growing industry segments) with growth rates beyond 25%: Consider best ways to “digest”/ and to stabilize rapid growth and ensure a “soft landing” should market growth come to a sudden stop
How to achieve long-term growth in the sweet-spot and beyond
The authors have identified a set of preconditions and levers to achieve long-term growth in their defined sweet-spot and beyond:Preconditions
- Generating a common understanding regarding growth and profit ambitions among the management team as a prerequisite for aligned and coordinated strategy development and implementation
- Understanding relevant markets (current or future promising markets). Generating market foresight when identifying and assessing growth initiatives, e.g. megatrends and scenario analyses, segment specific benchmarkingBenchmarkingBenchmarking is the process of comparing one's business processes and performance metrics to industry bests and/or best practices from other industries. Dimensions typically measured are quality, time and cost...
and in depth assessments, market demand projections
Levers and strategy
- Applying formulas for rapid growth, e.g. maxing out the number of relevant customers, maxing out the share of wallet and lifecycle potentials, continuous innovation, killer offerings, network based growth, M&A/buy-and-build driven growth, franchising proven business concepts, pyramid-like network expansion and managing value networks
- Defining the growth strategy as a portfolio of best suited growth initiatives considering a multidimensional set of criteria, e.g. ease of implementation, growth and profit impact, expected risk vs. return, cash flowCash flowCash flow is the movement of money into or out of a business, project, or financial product. It is usually measured during a specified, finite period of time. Measurement of cash flow can be used for calculating other parameters that give information on a company's value and situation.Cash flow...
stability - Making growth happen: Strategy and corresponding culture must be addressed in a consistent way, e.g. creating the case for growthChange managementChange management is a structured approach to shifting/transitioning individuals, teams, and organizations from a current state to a desired future state. It is an organizational process aimed at helping employees to accept and embrace changes in their current business environment....
, clearly defining and communicating vision and strategy as well as actively developing and energizing the organization.
Criticism
As described the sustainable growth rate (SGR) concept by Robert C. Higgings is based on several assumptions such as constant profit marginProfit margin
Profit margin, net margin, net profit margin or net profit ratio all refer to a measure of profitability. It is calculated by finding the net profit as a percentage of the revenue.Net profit Margin = x100...
, constant debt to equity ratio
Debt to equity ratio
The debt-to-equity ratio is a financial ratio indicating the relative proportion of shareholders' equity and debt used to finance a company's assets. Closely related to leveraging, the ratio is also known as Risk, Gearing or Leverage...
or constant asset to sales ratio. Therefore, general applicability of SGR concept in cases where these parameters are not stable is limited.
The Optimal Growth concept by Martin Handschuh, Hannes Lösch, Björn Heyden et al. has no restrictions to certain strategies or business model and is therefore more flexible in its applicability. However, as a broad framework, it only provides an orientation for case/company specific mid- to long-term growth target setting. Additional company and market specific considerations, e.g. market growth, growth culture, appetite for change, are required to come up with the optimal growth rate of a specific company.
Additionally, considering the increasing criticism of excessive growth and shareholder value orientation by philosophers, economists and also managers, e.g. Stéphane Hessel
Stéphane Hessel
Stéphane Frédéric Hessel is a diplomat, ambassador, writer, concentration camp survivor, former French Resistance fighter and BCRA agent. Born German, he became a naturalised French citizen in 1939...
, Kenneth Boulding, Jack Welsh (nowadays), one might expect that investors` investment criteria might also change in the future. This may lead to changes in the relationship of revenue growth rates and total shareholder value creation. Regular reviews of the optimal growth assessments may be used as an indicator for the development of stock markets` appetite for rapid growth.
Further readings
- Fonseka, Mohan; Tian, Gaoloang (2011): The most appropriate Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) Model for Managers and Researchers, American Accounting Association
- Graeme, Deans; Kroeger, Fritz (2004): Stretch!: How Great Companies Grow in Good Times and Bad, John Wiley & Sons
- Handschuh, Martin (2011): What we can learn from self-made billionaires?, WHU Otto Beisheim School of Management lecture
- Handschuh, Martin; Loesch, Hannes (2011): Optimal Growth – Does it exist and if so how to realize it?, Mannheim Business School lecture
- Handschuh, Martin; Reinartz, Sebastian; Heyden, Björn (2011): Megafusionen als Lehrbuch, M&A Review 05/2011
- Higgins, Robert (1981): Sustainable growth under inflation, Financial Management 10 (4) p.36-40
- Jonk, Gillis (2006): Resources for Growth, published in: executive agenda, ideas and insights for business leaders, volume IX, Number 1, 2006, A.T. Kearney
- Neumann, Dietrich; Sonnenschein, Martin; Schumacher, Nikolas (2003): Fünf Wege zu organischem Wachstum: Wie Unternehmen antizyklischen Erfolg programmieren können, campus Verlag
- Slywotzky, Adrian; Wise, Richard; Weber, Karl (2004): How to Grow When Markets Don’t: Discovering the New Drivers for Growth
- Sonnenschein, Martin (2011): Innovation and Growth in Volatile Times, Stuttgarter Strategieforum
- Velthius, Carol (2010): Surfing the Long Summer: How Market Leaders Grow Faster Than Their Markets, Infinite Ideas
- Zook, Chris (2007): Unstoppable: Finding Hidden Assets to Renew the Core and Fuel Profitable Growth; Mcgraw-Hill Professional
- Zook, Chris; Allen, James (2010): Profit from the Core: A Return to Growth in Turbulent Times; Harvard Business Press