Strategic early warning system
Encyclopedia
The aim of an Strategic Early Warning System (SEWS) is to assist organizations in dealing with discontinuities or strategic “surprises”. By detecting “weak signals” (Igor Ansoff
, 1975), which can be perceived as important discontinuities in an organizational environment, SEWS allows organizations to react strategically
ahead of time.
system, operating real-time in an organization, and assisting in identifying the new, which emerges as “weak signals”.
Detecting “weak signals” is achieved by scanning the organizational environment. The concept of environmental scanning
(Aguilar,1967) describes a process whereby the environment in which an organization operates is systematically scanned for relevant information. The purpose is to identify early signals of possible environmental change and to detect environmental change already underway.
The need for a formal strategic early warning process in organizations is based in large part on the existence of blindspots at their top, which prevents leaders and executives from identifying weak signals of change (Gilad, 1998). Any formal SEWS process must incorporate blindspots analysis
as part of its cycle.
The scanning activity is complemented by monitoring trends and issues that have already drawn attention.
Igor Ansoff
H. Igor Ansoff was a Russian American, applied mathematician and business manager. He is known as the father of Strategic management....
, 1975), which can be perceived as important discontinuities in an organizational environment, SEWS allows organizations to react strategically
Strategy
Strategy, a word of military origin, refers to a plan of action designed to achieve a particular goal. In military usage strategy is distinct from tactics, which are concerned with the conduct of an engagement, while strategy is concerned with how different engagements are linked...
ahead of time.
Underlying theory
The underlying assumption of SEWS is that discontinuities do not emerge without warning. These warning signs can be described as “weak signals”. The concept of “weak signals” (Ansoff, 1975) aims at early detection of those signals which could lead to strategic surprises and to an event which has the potential to jeopardise an organization’s strategy. Furthermore, the concept of a SEWS is intended to constitute an important part of a strategic managementStrategic management
Strategic management is a field that deals with the major intended and emergent initiatives taken by general managers on behalf of owners, involving utilization of resources, to enhance the performance of firms in their external environments...
system, operating real-time in an organization, and assisting in identifying the new, which emerges as “weak signals”.
Detecting “weak signals” is achieved by scanning the organizational environment. The concept of environmental scanning
Environmental scanning
Environmental scanning is one component of the global environmental analysis. Environmental monitoring, environmental forecasting and environmental assessment complete the global environmental analysis. Environmental scanning refers to the macro environment.The global environment refers to the...
(Aguilar,1967) describes a process whereby the environment in which an organization operates is systematically scanned for relevant information. The purpose is to identify early signals of possible environmental change and to detect environmental change already underway.
The need for a formal strategic early warning process in organizations is based in large part on the existence of blindspots at their top, which prevents leaders and executives from identifying weak signals of change (Gilad, 1998). Any formal SEWS process must incorporate blindspots analysis
Blindspots analysis
Blindspots analysis is a method aimed at uncovering obsolete assumptions in a decision maker’s mental scheme of the environment....
as part of its cycle.
Phases
The ideal SEWS process has three phases.- Phase 1 is characterised by the information gathering of “weak signals”, or trends and issues. The scanning itself relies primarily on examining various media sources, the technique of content analysis (Nasbitt, 1982).
The scanning activity is complemented by monitoring trends and issues that have already drawn attention.
- Phase 2 is one of diagnosisDiagnosisDiagnosis is the identification of the nature and cause of anything. Diagnosis is used in many different disciplines with variations in the use of logics, analytics, and experience to determine the cause and effect relationships...
, which is characterized by three steps:- In-depth analysis of the trend or issue, examining the core and the various contexts of this phenomenon. The aim is to gain an impression of the possible potential development of an issue or trend. Stakeholder theory may be used to understand actors in a specific industry (Comai and Tena, 2006)
- The second step has several objectives.
- The attempt should be made to think creatively about how the particular trend or issue could evolve.
- The nature of the contexts needs to be examined in order to cluster several trends or issues, thus providing an understanding of the mutual influences on and of trends and issues.
- It is important, due to the limited resources in any organization, to identify and select those trends and issues that are particularly relevant.
- Phase 3 describes the formulation of an appropriate strategy to react to the trends and issues which have been identified and labelled as relevant.