Self-Sampling Assumption
Encyclopedia
The self-sampling assumption (SSA
), one of the two major schools of anthropic probability (the other being the Self-Indication Assumption
(SIA
)), states that:
For instance, if there is a coin flip that on heads will create one observer, while on tails they will create two, then we have two possible worlds, the first with one observer, the second with two. These worlds are equally probable, hence the SSA probability of being the first (and only) observer in the heads world is 1/2, that of being the first observer in the tails world is 1/2 × 1/2 = 1/4, and the probability of being the second observer in the tails world is also 1/4.
This is why SSA gives an answer of 1/2 probability of heads in the Sleeping Beauty problem
.
Unlike SIA, SSA is dependent on the choice of reference class. If the agents in the above example were in the same reference class as a trillion other observers, then the probability of being in the heads world, upon the agent being told they are in the sleeping beauty problem, is
1/3, similar to SIA.
SSA implies the doomsday argument
, and is often used in anthropic reasoning
.
SSA
-Commercial/ government enterprises:* SSA Global Technologies* SSA Graphics* Social Security Administration* Special Services Area-Computing and data analysis:* Software Security Assurance* Serial Storage Architecture* Singular Spectrum Analysis...
), one of the two major schools of anthropic probability (the other being the Self-Indication Assumption
Self-Indication Assumption
The Self Indication Assumption Nick Bostrom originally used the term SIA in a slightly different way. What is here referred to as SIA, he referred to as the combined SSA+SIA, a philosophical principle defined by Nick Bostrom, one of the two major schools of anthropic probability , states that:Note...
(SIA
Sia
-People:*Sia Berkeley , British actress*Sia Figiel , Samoan novelist, poet and painter*Sia Furler , Australian singer...
)), states that:
- All other things equal, an observer should reason as if they are randomly selected from the set of all actually existent observers (past, present and future) in their reference class.
For instance, if there is a coin flip that on heads will create one observer, while on tails they will create two, then we have two possible worlds, the first with one observer, the second with two. These worlds are equally probable, hence the SSA probability of being the first (and only) observer in the heads world is 1/2, that of being the first observer in the tails world is 1/2 × 1/2 = 1/4, and the probability of being the second observer in the tails world is also 1/4.
This is why SSA gives an answer of 1/2 probability of heads in the Sleeping Beauty problem
Sleeping Beauty problem
The Sleeping Beauty problem is a puzzle in probability theory and formal epistemology in which an ideally rational epistemic agent is to be wakened once or twice according to the toss of a coin, and asked her degree of belief for the coin having come up heads....
.
Unlike SIA, SSA is dependent on the choice of reference class. If the agents in the above example were in the same reference class as a trillion other observers, then the probability of being in the heads world, upon the agent being told they are in the sleeping beauty problem, is
1/3, similar to SIA.SSA implies the doomsday argument
Doomsday argument
The Doomsday argument is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the number of future members of the human species given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far...
, and is often used in anthropic reasoning
Anthropic principle
In astrophysics and cosmology, the anthropic principle is the philosophical argument that observations of the physical Universe must be compatible with the conscious life that observes it. Some proponents of the argument reason that it explains why the Universe has the age and the fundamental...
.
See also
- Bayesian inferenceBayesian inferenceIn statistics, Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference. It is often used in science and engineering to determine model parameters, make predictions about unknown variables, and to perform model selection...
- Self-Indication AssumptionSelf-Indication AssumptionThe Self Indication Assumption Nick Bostrom originally used the term SIA in a slightly different way. What is here referred to as SIA, he referred to as the combined SSA+SIA, a philosophical principle defined by Nick Bostrom, one of the two major schools of anthropic probability , states that:Note...
- Self-Indication Assumption Doomsday argument rebuttalSelf-Indication Assumption Doomsday argument rebuttalThe Self-Indication Assumption Doomsday argument rebuttal is an objection to the Doomsday argument by arguing that the chance of being born is not one, but is an increasing function of the number of people who will be born.- History :This objection to the Doomsday Argument ,...
- Doomsday argumentDoomsday argumentThe Doomsday argument is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the number of future members of the human species given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far...
- Anthropic principleAnthropic principleIn astrophysics and cosmology, the anthropic principle is the philosophical argument that observations of the physical Universe must be compatible with the conscious life that observes it. Some proponents of the argument reason that it explains why the Universe has the age and the fundamental...