Runs created
Encyclopedia
Runs created is a baseball statistic
invented by Bill James
to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team.
, why he believes runs created is an essential thing to measure:
Runs created attempts to answer this bedrock question. The conceptual framework of the "runs created" stat is:
where
where H is hits
, BB is base on balls
, TB is total bases
and AB is at-bats
.
This can also be expressed as:
where OBP is on base percentage
, SLG is slugging average, AB is at-bats
and TB is total bases
.
where H is hits
, BB is base on balls
, CS is caught stealing
, TB is total bases
, SB is stolen base
s, and AB is at bat
s.
where H is hits
, BB is base on balls
, CS is caught stealing
, HBP is hit by pitch
, GIDP is grounded into double play, TB is total bases
, IBB is intentional base on balls
, SH is sacrifice hit
, SF is sacrifice fly
, and AB is at bat
s.
, Ted Williams
and Barry Bonds
. This is because these formulas placed a player in an offensive context of players equal to himself; it is as if the player is assumed to be on base for himself when he hits home runs. Of course, this is impossible, and in reality, a great player is interacting with offensive players whose contributions are inferior to his. The 2002 version corrects this by placing the player in the context of his real-life team. This 2002 version also takes into account performance in "clutch" situations.
where K is strikeout
.
The initial individual runs created estimate is then:
If situational hitting information is available, the following should be added to the above total:
where RISP is runners in scoring position
, BA is batting average
, HR is home run
, and ROB is runners on base. The subscripts indicate the required condition for the formula. For example,
means "hits while runners are in scoring position."
This is then figured for every member of the team, and an estimate of total team runs scored is added up. The actual total of team runs scored is then divided by the estimated total team runs scored, yielding a ratio of real to estimated team runs scored. The above individual runs created estimate is then multiplied by this ratio, to yield a runs created estimate for the individual.
(27 of course being the number of outs
per team in a standard 9-inning
baseball game).
Baseball statistics
Statistics play an important role in summarizing baseball performance and evaluating players in the sport.Since the flow of a baseball game has natural breaks to it, and normally players act individually rather than performing in clusters, the sport lends itself to easy record-keeping and statistics...
invented by Bill James
Bill James
George William “Bill” James is a baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics...
to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team.
Purpose
James explains in his book, The Bill James Historical Baseball AbstractThe Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract
The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract is a reference-type book written by Bill James featuring an overview of baseball decade by decade, along with rankings of the top 100 players at each position. The original edition was published in 1985 by Villard Books, followed by The New Bill James...
, why he believes runs created is an essential thing to measure:
With regard to an offensive player, the first key question is how many runs have resulted from what he has done with the bat and on the basepaths. Willie McCoveyWillie McCoveyWillie Lee McCovey , nicknamed "Mac", "Big Mac", and "Stretch", is a former Major League Baseball first baseman. He played nineteen seasons for the San Francisco Giants, and three more for the San Diego Padres and Oakland Athletics, between and...
hit .270 in his career, with 353 doubles, 46 triples, 521 home runs and 1,345 walks -- but his job was not to hit doubles, nor to hit singles, nor to hit triples, nor to draw walks or even hit home runs, but rather to put runs on the scoreboard. How many runs resulted from all of these things?
Runs created attempts to answer this bedrock question. The conceptual framework of the "runs created" stat is:
where
- A = On-base factor
- B = Advancement factor
- C = Opportunity factor
Basic runs created
In the most basic runs created formula:where H is hits
Hit (baseball)
In baseball statistics, a hit , also called a base hit, is credited to a batter when the batter safely reaches first base after hitting the ball into fair territory, without the benefit of an error or a fielder's choice....
, BB is base on balls
Base on balls
A base on balls is credited to a batter and against a pitcher in baseball statistics when a batter receives four pitches that the umpire calls balls. It is better known as a walk. The base on balls is defined in Section 2.00 of baseball's Official Rules, and further detail is given in 6.08...
, TB is total bases
Total bases
In baseball statistics, total bases refers to the number of bases a player has gained with hits, i.e., the sum of his hits weighted by 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run.Only bases attained from hits count toward this total....
and AB is at-bats
At bat
In baseball, an at bat or time at bat is used to calculate certain statistics, including batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. It is a more restricted definition of a plate appearance...
.
This can also be expressed as:
- OBP × SLG × AB
- or,
- OBP × TB
where OBP is on base percentage
On base percentage
In baseball statistics, on-base percentage is a measure of how often a batter reaches base for any reason other than a fielding error, fielder's choice, dropped/uncaught third strike, fielder's obstruction, or catcher's interference In baseball statistics, on-base percentage (OBP) (sometimes...
, SLG is slugging average, AB is at-bats
At bat
In baseball, an at bat or time at bat is used to calculate certain statistics, including batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. It is a more restricted definition of a plate appearance...
and TB is total bases
Total bases
In baseball statistics, total bases refers to the number of bases a player has gained with hits, i.e., the sum of his hits weighted by 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run.Only bases attained from hits count toward this total....
.
"Stolen base" version of runs created
This formula expands on the basic formula by accounting for a player's basestealing ability.where H is hits
Hit (baseball)
In baseball statistics, a hit , also called a base hit, is credited to a batter when the batter safely reaches first base after hitting the ball into fair territory, without the benefit of an error or a fielder's choice....
, BB is base on balls
Base on balls
A base on balls is credited to a batter and against a pitcher in baseball statistics when a batter receives four pitches that the umpire calls balls. It is better known as a walk. The base on balls is defined in Section 2.00 of baseball's Official Rules, and further detail is given in 6.08...
, CS is caught stealing
Caught stealing
In baseball, a runner is charged, and the fielders involved are credited, with a time caught stealing when the runner attempts to advance or lead off from one base to another without the ball being batted and then is tagged out by a fielder while making the attempt...
, TB is total bases
Total bases
In baseball statistics, total bases refers to the number of bases a player has gained with hits, i.e., the sum of his hits weighted by 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run.Only bases attained from hits count toward this total....
, SB is stolen base
Stolen base
In baseball, a stolen base occurs when a baserunner successfully advances to the next base while the pitcher is delivering the ball to home plate...
s, and AB is at bat
At bat
In baseball, an at bat or time at bat is used to calculate certain statistics, including batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. It is a more restricted definition of a plate appearance...
s.
"Technical" version of runs created
This formula accounts for all basic, easily available offensive statistics.where H is hits
Hit (baseball)
In baseball statistics, a hit , also called a base hit, is credited to a batter when the batter safely reaches first base after hitting the ball into fair territory, without the benefit of an error or a fielder's choice....
, BB is base on balls
Base on balls
A base on balls is credited to a batter and against a pitcher in baseball statistics when a batter receives four pitches that the umpire calls balls. It is better known as a walk. The base on balls is defined in Section 2.00 of baseball's Official Rules, and further detail is given in 6.08...
, CS is caught stealing
Caught stealing
In baseball, a runner is charged, and the fielders involved are credited, with a time caught stealing when the runner attempts to advance or lead off from one base to another without the ball being batted and then is tagged out by a fielder while making the attempt...
, HBP is hit by pitch
Hit by pitch
In baseball, hit by pitch , or hit batsman , is a batter or his equipment being hit in some part of his body by a pitch from the pitcher.-Official rule:...
, GIDP is grounded into double play, TB is total bases
Total bases
In baseball statistics, total bases refers to the number of bases a player has gained with hits, i.e., the sum of his hits weighted by 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run.Only bases attained from hits count toward this total....
, IBB is intentional base on balls
Intentional base on balls
In baseball, an intentional base on balls, usually referred to as an intentional walk and denoted in baseball scorekeeping by IBB, is a walk issued to a batter by a pitcher with the intent of removing the batter's opportunity to swing at the pitched ball...
, SH is sacrifice hit
Sacrifice hit
In baseball, a sacrifice bunt is a batter's act of deliberately bunting the ball in a manner that allows a runner on base to advance to another base. The batter is almost always sacrificed but sometimes reaches base due to an error or fielder's choice...
, SF is sacrifice fly
Sacrifice fly
In baseball, a sacrifice fly is a batted ball that satisfies four criteria:* There are fewer than two outs when the ball is hit.* The ball is hit to the outfield....
, and AB is at bat
At bat
In baseball, an at bat or time at bat is used to calculate certain statistics, including batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. It is a more restricted definition of a plate appearance...
s.
2002 version of runs created
Earlier versions of runs created overestimated the number of runs created by players with extremely high A and B factors (on-base and slugging), such as Babe RuthBabe Ruth
George Herman Ruth, Jr. , best known as "Babe" Ruth and nicknamed "the Bambino" and "the Sultan of Swat", was an American Major League baseball player from 1914–1935...
, Ted Williams
Ted Williams
Theodore Samuel "Ted" Williams was an American professional baseball player and manager. He played his entire 21-year Major League Baseball career as the left fielder for the Boston Red Sox...
and Barry Bonds
Barry Bonds
Barry Lamar Bonds is an American former Major League Baseball outfielder. Bonds played from 1986 to 2007, for the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants. He is the son of former major league All-Star Bobby Bonds...
. This is because these formulas placed a player in an offensive context of players equal to himself; it is as if the player is assumed to be on base for himself when he hits home runs. Of course, this is impossible, and in reality, a great player is interacting with offensive players whose contributions are inferior to his. The 2002 version corrects this by placing the player in the context of his real-life team. This 2002 version also takes into account performance in "clutch" situations.
- A:
- B:
- C:
where K is strikeout
Strikeout
In baseball or softball, a strikeout or strike-out occurs when a batter receives three strikes during his time at bat. A strikeout is a statistic recorded for both pitchers and batters....
.
The initial individual runs created estimate is then:
If situational hitting information is available, the following should be added to the above total:
where RISP is runners in scoring position
Baserunning
In baseball, baserunning is the act of running around the bases performed by members of the team at bat.In general, baserunning is a tactical part of the game with the goal of eventually reaching home to score a run. In fact, the goal of batting is generally to produce baserunners, or help move...
, BA is batting average
Batting average
Batting average is a statistic in both cricket and baseball that measures the performance of cricket batsmen and baseball hitters. The two statistics are related in that baseball averages are directly descended from the concept of cricket averages.- Cricket :...
, HR is home run
Home run
In baseball, a home run is scored when the ball is hit in such a way that the batter is able to reach home safely in one play without any errors being committed by the defensive team in the process...
, and ROB is runners on base. The subscripts indicate the required condition for the formula. For example,
means "hits while runners are in scoring position."This is then figured for every member of the team, and an estimate of total team runs scored is added up. The actual total of team runs scored is then divided by the estimated total team runs scored, yielding a ratio of real to estimated team runs scored. The above individual runs created estimate is then multiplied by this ratio, to yield a runs created estimate for the individual.
Other expressions of runs created
The same information provided by runs created can be expressed as a rate stat, rather than a raw number of runs contributed. This is usually expressed as runs created per some number of outs, e.g. (27 of course being the number of outsOut (baseball)
In baseball, an out occurs when the defensive, or fielding, team effects any of a number of different events, and the umpire rules a batter or baserunner out. When a player is called out, he is said to be retired...
per team in a standard 9-inning
Inning
Inning is a municipality in the district of Erding in Bavaria in Germany....
baseball game).
Accuracy
Runs created is believed to be an accurate measure of an individual's offensive contribution because, when used on whole teams, the formula normally closely approximates how many runs the team actually scores. Even the basic version of runs created usually predicts a team's run total within a 5% margin of error. Other, more advanced versions are even more accurate.Related statistics
- Win SharesWin SharesWin shares is the name of the metric Bill James describes in his 2002 book Win Shares.It considers statistics for baseball and basketball players, in the context of their team and in a sabermetric way, and assigns a single number to each player for his contributions for the year. A win share...
is James' attempt to summarize, in one stat, a player's contributions on both offense and defense.