Redshift (theory)
Encyclopedia
Redshift is a techno-economic theory suggesting hypersegmentation of Information Technology
(IT) markets based on whether individual computing needs are over or under-served by Moore's Law
, which predicts the doubling of computing transistors (and therefore roughly computing power) every two years. The theory,
proposed and named by Sun Microsystems
CTO Greg Papadopoulos
, categorizes a series of high growth markets (Redshifting) while predicting slower GDP-driven growth in traditional computing markets (Blueshifting). Papadopoulos predicts the result will be a fundamental redesign of components comprising computing systems.
Senior Vice President Brad Anderson, “Businesses requiring hyper-scale computing environments – where infrastructure deployments are measured by up to millions of servers, storage and networking equipment – are changing the way they approach IT.”
While various Redshift proponents offer minor alterations on the original presentation, “Redshifting” generally includes:
ΣBW (Sum-of-Bandwidth
These are companies that drive heavy Internet
traffic. This includes popular web-portals like Google
, Yahoo, AOL
and MSN
. It also includes telecom
s, multimedia, television over IP, online games like World of Warcraft
and others. This segment has been enabled by widespread availability of high-bandwidth Internet connections to consumers through a DSL or cable modem
. A simple way to understand this market is that for every byte
of content served to a PC, mobile phone or other device over a network, there must exist computing systems to send it over the network.
. For example, companies that deploy CRM
are over-served by Moore's Law, but companies that aggregate CRM functions and offer them as a service, such as Salesforce.com
, grow faster than Moore's Law.
. In 1999 eBay suffered a database crisis when a single Oracle database running on the fastest Sun
machine available (these tracking Moore's Law in this period) was not enough to cope with eBay's growth. The solution was to massively parallelise their system architecture.
or Customer Relationship Management (CRM)
applications, have reached relative saturation in industrialized nations. Thereafter, proponents
argue further market growth will closely follow Gross Domestic Product
(GDP)
growth, which typically remains under 10% for most countries annually. Given that Moore's Law continues to predict accurately the rate of computing transistor growth, which roughly translates into computing power doubling every two years, the Redshift theory suggests that traditional computing markets will ultimately contract as a percentage of computing expenditures over time.
Functionally, this means “Blueshifting” customers can satisfy computing requirement growth by swapping in faster processors without increasing the absolute number of computing systems.
the IT market will be based upon a company's ability to deliver computing at massive scale, efficiently and with predictable service levels, much like electricity today.
If computing is to be delivered as a utility, Nicholas
Carr suggests Papadopoulos' vision compares with Microsoft
researcher Jim Hamilton, who both agree that computing is most efficiently generated in shipping containers. Industry analysts are also beginning to quantify Redshifting and Blueshifting markets. According to International Data Corporation (IDC)
vice president Matthew Eastwood, "IDC believes that the IT market is in a period of hyper segmentation... This a class of customers that is Moore's law driven and as price performance gains continue, IDC believes that these organizations will accelerate their consumption of IT infrastructure.”
in late 2006. Papadopoulos later gave a full presentation on Redshift to Sun's annual Analyst Summit in February 2007. The term Redshift
refers to what happens when electromagnetic radiation, usually visible light, moves away from an observer. Papadopoulos chose this term to reflect growth markets because redshift helped cosmologists explain the expansion of the universe.
Papadopoulos originally depicted traditional IT markets as green to represent their revenue base, but later changed them to “blueshift,” which occurs when a light source moves toward an observer, similar to what would happen during a contraction of the universe.
Information technology
Information technology is the acquisition, processing, storage and dissemination of vocal, pictorial, textual and numerical information by a microelectronics-based combination of computing and telecommunications...
(IT) markets based on whether individual computing needs are over or under-served by Moore's Law
Moore's Law
Moore's law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware: the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years....
, which predicts the doubling of computing transistors (and therefore roughly computing power) every two years. The theory,
proposed and named by Sun Microsystems
Sun Microsystems
Sun Microsystems, Inc. was a company that sold :computers, computer components, :computer software, and :information technology services. Sun was founded on February 24, 1982...
CTO Greg Papadopoulos
Greg Papadopoulos
Greg Papadopoulos, Ph.D. was Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer of Sun Microsystems from September 1994 until February 2010. He is the creator and lead proponent for Redshift, a theory on whether technology markets are over or under-served by Moore's Law.Papadopoulos achieved a...
, categorizes a series of high growth markets (Redshifting) while predicting slower GDP-driven growth in traditional computing markets (Blueshifting). Papadopoulos predicts the result will be a fundamental redesign of components comprising computing systems.
Hypergrowth market segments (Redshifting)
According to the Redshift theory, applications "redshift" when they grow dramatically faster than Moore's Law allows, growing quickly in their absolute number of systems. In these markets, customers are running out of datacenter real-estate, power and cooling infrastructure. According to DellDell
Dell, Inc. is an American multinational information technology corporation based in 1 Dell Way, Round Rock, Texas, United States, that develops, sells and supports computers and related products and services. Bearing the name of its founder, Michael Dell, the company is one of the largest...
Senior Vice President Brad Anderson, “Businesses requiring hyper-scale computing environments – where infrastructure deployments are measured by up to millions of servers, storage and networking equipment – are changing the way they approach IT.”
While various Redshift proponents offer minor alterations on the original presentation, “Redshifting” generally includes:
ΣBW (Sum-of-BandwidthBandwidth (computing)In computer networking and computer science, bandwidth, network bandwidth, data bandwidth, or digital bandwidth is a measure of available or consumed data communication resources expressed in bits/second or multiples of it .Note that in textbooks on wireless communications, modem data transmission,...
)
These are companies that drive heavy InternetInternet
The Internet is a global system of interconnected computer networks that use the standard Internet protocol suite to serve billions of users worldwide...
traffic. This includes popular web-portals like Google
Google
Google Inc. is an American multinational public corporation invested in Internet search, cloud computing, and advertising technologies. Google hosts and develops a number of Internet-based services and products, and generates profit primarily from advertising through its AdWords program...
, Yahoo, AOL
AOL
AOL Inc. is an American global Internet services and media company. AOL is headquartered at 770 Broadway in New York. Founded in 1983 as Control Video Corporation, it has franchised its services to companies in several nations around the world or set up international versions of its services...
and MSN
MSN
MSN is a collection of Internet sites and services provided by Microsoft. The Microsoft Network debuted as an online service and Internet service provider on August 24, 1995, to coincide with the release of the Windows 95 operating system.The range of services offered by MSN has changed since its...
. It also includes telecom
Telecom
Telecom refers to:* An abbreviation of telecommunication.* Short for telecommunications company, in general.* A short name for any telecommunications company with "Telecom" specifically in the name, where context allows media or people to commonly exclude the rest of its name without confusion,...
s, multimedia, television over IP, online games like World of Warcraft
World of Warcraft
World of Warcraft is a massively multiplayer online role-playing game by Blizzard Entertainment. It is the fourth released game set in the fantasy Warcraft universe, which was first introduced by Warcraft: Orcs & Humans in 1994...
and others. This segment has been enabled by widespread availability of high-bandwidth Internet connections to consumers through a DSL or cable modem
Cable modem
A cable modem is a type of network bridge and modem that provides bi-directional data communication via radio frequency channels on a HFC and RFoG infrastructure. Cable modems are primarily used to deliver broadband Internet access in the form of cable Internet, taking advantage of the high...
. A simple way to understand this market is that for every byte
Byte
The byte is a unit of digital information in computing and telecommunications that most commonly consists of eight bits. Historically, a byte was the number of bits used to encode a single character of text in a computer and for this reason it is the basic addressable element in many computer...
of content served to a PC, mobile phone or other device over a network, there must exist computing systems to send it over the network.
High Performance Computing (HPC)
These are companies that do complex simulations that involve (for example) weather, stock markets or drug-design simulations. This is a generally elastic market because businesses frequently spend every "available" dollar budgeted for IT. A common anecdote claims that cutting the cost of computing by half causes customers in this segment to buy at least twice as much, because each marginal IT dollar spent contributes to business advantage.*prise (or "Star-prise")
These are companies that aggregate traditional computing applications and offer them as services, typically in the form of Software as a Service (SaaS)Software as a Service
Software as a service , sometimes referred to as "on-demand software," is a software delivery model in which software and its associated data are hosted centrally and are typically accessed by users using a thin client, normally using a web browser over the Internet.SaaS has become a common...
. For example, companies that deploy CRM
Customer relationship management
Customer relationship management is a widely implemented strategy for managing a company’s interactions with customers, clients and sales prospects. It involves using technology to organize, automate, and synchronize business processes—principally sales activities, but also those for marketing,...
are over-served by Moore's Law, but companies that aggregate CRM functions and offer them as a service, such as Salesforce.com
Salesforce.com
Salesforce.com is an enterprise cloud computing company headquartered in San Francisco that distributes business software on a subscription basis. Salesforce.com hosts the applications off-site...
, grow faster than Moore's Law.
The eBay crisis
A prime example of redshift was the crisis at eBayEBay
eBay Inc. is an American internet consumer-to-consumer corporation that manages eBay.com, an online auction and shopping website in which people and businesses buy and sell a broad variety of goods and services worldwide...
. In 1999 eBay suffered a database crisis when a single Oracle database running on the fastest Sun
Sun Microsystems
Sun Microsystems, Inc. was a company that sold :computers, computer components, :computer software, and :information technology services. Sun was founded on February 24, 1982...
machine available (these tracking Moore's Law in this period) was not enough to cope with eBay's growth. The solution was to massively parallelise their system architecture.
Traditional Computing Markets (Blueshifting)
Redshift theory suggests that traditional computing markets, such as those serving Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)Enterprise resource planning
Enterprise resource planning systems integrate internal and external management information across an entire organization, embracing finance/accounting, manufacturing, sales and service, customer relationship management, etc. ERP systems automate this activity with an integrated software application...
or Customer Relationship Management (CRM)
Customer relationship management
Customer relationship management is a widely implemented strategy for managing a company’s interactions with customers, clients and sales prospects. It involves using technology to organize, automate, and synchronize business processes—principally sales activities, but also those for marketing,...
applications, have reached relative saturation in industrialized nations. Thereafter, proponents
argue further market growth will closely follow Gross Domestic Product
(GDP)
Gross domestic product
Gross domestic product refers to the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of a country's standard of living....
growth, which typically remains under 10% for most countries annually. Given that Moore's Law continues to predict accurately the rate of computing transistor growth, which roughly translates into computing power doubling every two years, the Redshift theory suggests that traditional computing markets will ultimately contract as a percentage of computing expenditures over time.
Functionally, this means “Blueshifting” customers can satisfy computing requirement growth by swapping in faster processors without increasing the absolute number of computing systems.
Consequences & Industry Commentary
Papadopoulos argues that while traditional computing markets remain the dominant source of revenue through the late 2000s, a shift to hypergrowth markets will inevitably occur. When that shift occurs, he argues computing (but not computers) will become a utility, and differentiation inthe IT market will be based upon a company's ability to deliver computing at massive scale, efficiently and with predictable service levels, much like electricity today.
If computing is to be delivered as a utility, Nicholas
Carr suggests Papadopoulos' vision compares with Microsoft
Microsoft
Microsoft Corporation is an American public multinational corporation headquartered in Redmond, Washington, USA that develops, manufactures, licenses, and supports a wide range of products and services predominantly related to computing through its various product divisions...
researcher Jim Hamilton, who both agree that computing is most efficiently generated in shipping containers. Industry analysts are also beginning to quantify Redshifting and Blueshifting markets. According to International Data Corporation (IDC)
International Data Corporation
International Data Corporation is a market research and analysis firm specializing in information technology, telecommunications and consumer technology. IDC is a subsidiary of International Data Group...
vice president Matthew Eastwood, "IDC believes that the IT market is in a period of hyper segmentation... This a class of customers that is Moore's law driven and as price performance gains continue, IDC believes that these organizations will accelerate their consumption of IT infrastructure.”
History & Nomenclature
Key portions of Papadopoulos' theory were first presented by Sun Microsystems CEO Jonathan SchwartzJonathan I. Schwartz
Jonathan Ian Schwartz is the co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of Picture of Health. He was formerly the President and CEO of Sun Microsystems prior to its acquisition by Oracle, and previously the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Lighthouse Design, Ltd., a software company focused on...
in late 2006. Papadopoulos later gave a full presentation on Redshift to Sun's annual Analyst Summit in February 2007. The term Redshift
Redshift
In physics , redshift happens when light seen coming from an object is proportionally increased in wavelength, or shifted to the red end of the spectrum...
refers to what happens when electromagnetic radiation, usually visible light, moves away from an observer. Papadopoulos chose this term to reflect growth markets because redshift helped cosmologists explain the expansion of the universe.
Papadopoulos originally depicted traditional IT markets as green to represent their revenue base, but later changed them to “blueshift,” which occurs when a light source moves toward an observer, similar to what would happen during a contraction of the universe.
External links
- Greg Papadopoulos: Original Redshift presentation video
- Official Greg Papadopoulos biography
- InformationWeek feature story on Redshift
- Nicholas Carr, "The future of computing demand"
- Nicholas Carr, "Showdown in the trailer park II"
- Microsoft's Jim Hamilton: paper and presentation
- ZDnet Blog on Redshift