Probability Sun
Encyclopedia
Probability Sun is a 2001 science fiction
Science fiction
Science fiction is a genre of fiction dealing with imaginary but more or less plausible content such as future settings, futuristic science and technology, space travel, aliens, and paranormal abilities...

 novel
Novel
A novel is a book of long narrative in literary prose. The genre has historical roots both in the fields of the medieval and early modern romance and in the tradition of the novella. The latter supplied the present generic term in the late 18th century....

 by Nancy Kress
Nancy Kress
Nancy Kress is an American science fiction writer. She began writing in 1976 but has achieved her greatest notice since the publication of her Hugo and Nebula-winning 1991 novella "Beggars in Spain" which was later expanded into a novel with the same title...

, a sequel to her 2000 publication Probability Moon
Probability Moon
Probability Moon is a 2000 science fiction novel by Nancy Kress.The novel concerns a xenological expedition to the planet World, where aliens live who have developed a strange form of telepathy or collective unconscious, "shared reality," which causes piercing "head-pain" whenever "Worlders"...

. It was followed in 2002 by Probability Space, which won the John W. Campbell Memorial Award.

The novel concerns a military expedition to the planet World, where aliens live who have developed a strange form of telepathy
Telepathy
Telepathy , is the induction of mental states from one mind to another. The term was coined in 1882 by the classical scholar Fredric W. H. Myers, a founder of the Society for Psychical Research, and has remained more popular than the more-correct expression thought-transference...

 or collective unconscious
Collective unconscious
Collective unconscious is a term of analytical psychology, coined by Carl Jung. It is proposed to be a part of the unconscious mind, expressed in humanity and all life forms with nervous systems, and describes how the structure of the psyche autonomously organizes experience...

, "shared reality
Reality
In philosophy, reality is the state of things as they actually exist, rather than as they may appear or might be imagined. In a wider definition, reality includes everything that is and has been, whether or not it is observable or comprehensible...

," which causes piercing "head-pain
Headache
A headache or cephalalgia is pain anywhere in the region of the head or neck. It can be a symptom of a number of different conditions of the head and neck. The brain tissue itself is not sensitive to pain because it lacks pain receptors. Rather, the pain is caused by disturbance of the...

" whenever "Worlders" attempt to hold strongly-differing opinions. However, the expedition concerns a crash-landed alien artifact in the planet's crust which has uncharted powers, and may be the key to humanity winning a war against the "Fallers," a xenocidal
Xenocide
Xenocide is the third novel in the Ender's Game series of books by Orson Scott Card. It was nominated for both the Hugo and Locus Awards for Best Novel in 1992...

 alien race.

Setting

The Probability trilogy takes place in a galaxy
Galaxy
A galaxy is a massive, gravitationally bound system that consists of stars and stellar remnants, an interstellar medium of gas and dust, and an important but poorly understood component tentatively dubbed dark matter. The word galaxy is derived from the Greek galaxias , literally "milky", a...

 that has been colonized by humans. This was made possible by the space tunnels, a network of FTL
Faster-than-light
Faster-than-light communications and travel refer to the propagation of information or matter faster than the speed of light....

 warp gates that were created by a now-lost progenitor race. Humanity is not united under a common government and political system; instead, the various governments in the Solar System and beyond have united as the "Solar Alliance Defense Network" in light of the war against the Fallers. The Terrans have also discovered a number of alien races, most of them vastly similar in body format, living conditions and even DNA
DNA
Deoxyribonucleic acid is a nucleic acid that contains the genetic instructions used in the development and functioning of all known living organisms . The DNA segments that carry this genetic information are called genes, but other DNA sequences have structural purposes, or are involved in...

, leading to the hypothesis that the aforementioned progenitor race seeded the galaxy with sentient life, which then evolved according to the conditions on each planet. Of the known alien races, humanity is the only one that has reached space.

Humanity's understanding of the space tunnels is very limited, but several peculiar traits have been discovered. For one: if Ship A enters Tunnel 1, exits Tunnel 2 and then turns around and enters Tunnel 2 again, it will emerge from Tunnel 1 again... Unless Ship B emerges from Tunnel 2 in the interim, at which point Ship A will instead emerge from wherever Ship B entered. (The single tunnel leading to World is #438, which gives an idea of how carefully passage through heavily-used tunnels must be coordinated.) For two, objects can only enter the Tunnel if they are below a certain mass, about 100,000 ton
Ton
The ton is a unit of measure. It has a long history and has acquired a number of meanings and uses over the years. It is used principally as a unit of weight, and as a unit of volume. It can also be used as a measure of energy, for truck classification, or as a colloquial term.It is derived from...

s; anything larger will actually fit into the aperture, but will collapse and explode. The threshold of what the tunnel can handle is determined by the object's Schwarzschild radius
Schwarzschild radius
The Schwarzschild radius is the distance from the center of an object such that, if all the mass of the object were compressed within that sphere, the escape speed from the surface would equal the speed of light...

. Finally, nobody knows how the tunnels work. At all. Macro-level quantum entanglement
Quantum entanglement
Quantum entanglement occurs when electrons, molecules even as large as "buckyballs", photons, etc., interact physically and then become separated; the type of interaction is such that each resulting member of a pair is properly described by the same quantum mechanical description , which is...

 has been proposed, but it is so far out of the realm of current physics that nobody believes it.

The space tunnels also lead to the discovery of the Fallers, an alien race who refused to establish communications and immediately launched a war, which they are winning. No Faller has been captured alive—they prefer to suicide or kamikaze
Kamikaze
The were suicide attacks by military aviators from the Empire of Japan against Allied naval vessels in the closing stages of the Pacific campaign of World War II, designed to destroy as many warships as possible....

—but forensic
Forensics
Forensic science is the application of a broad spectrum of sciences to answer questions of interest to a legal system. This may be in relation to a crime or a civil action...

 examination of corpses indicate they evolved separately from humans, instead of being seeded by the progenitors. Like humanity, they were not an interstellar race until the discovery of a space tunnel in their system, though they have been closing the gap quickly. Unlike humans, they did not discover the tunnel independently; it was, in fact, a Terran craft emerging into their home system that catapulted them onto the interstellar stage.

The Probability novels shares two technological quirks with another of Nancy Kress' trilogies, the Beggars trilogy: in both stories, use of both genetic modification
Genetic engineering
Genetic engineering, also called genetic modification, is the direct human manipulation of an organism's genome using modern DNA technology. It involves the introduction of foreign DNA or synthetic genes into the organism of interest...

 and behavior-regulating neuropharmacological drugs is commonplace. "Genemods" are applied in vitro
In vitro
In vitro refers to studies in experimental biology that are conducted using components of an organism that have been isolated from their usual biological context in order to permit a more detailed or more convenient analysis than can be done with whole organisms. Colloquially, these experiments...

, whereas those who adhere to the "Discipline" administer "neuropharms" daily to control their neurotransmitter
Neurotransmitter
Neurotransmitters are endogenous chemicals that transmit signals from a neuron to a target cell across a synapse. Neurotransmitters are packaged into synaptic vesicles clustered beneath the membrane on the presynaptic side of a synapse, and are released into the synaptic cleft, where they bind to...

 balances, in a mix that can be altered depending on the activities of one's day and the mood one hopes to approach it with.

Plot synopsis

Probability Sun introduces a mostly-new cast of characters. It stars Colonel
Colonel
Colonel , abbreviated Col or COL, is a military rank of a senior commissioned officer. It or a corresponding rank exists in most armies and in many air forces; the naval equivalent rank is generally "Captain". It is also used in some police forces and other paramilitary rank structures...

 Lyle Kaufman of the United Atlantic Federation Army, who lobbies for and is given command of an expedition to World. This expedition has been championed in the past by Dieter Gruber, a geologist
Geologist
A geologist is a scientist who studies the solid and liquid matter that constitutes the Earth as well as the processes and history that has shaped it. Geologists usually engage in studying geology. Geologists, studying more of an applied science than a theoretical one, must approach Geology using...

 returning from the first novel, and his wife Ann Sikorski, a xenobiologist
Biology
Biology is a natural science concerned with the study of life and living organisms, including their structure, function, growth, origin, evolution, distribution, and taxonomy. Biology is a vast subject containing many subdivisions, topics, and disciplines...

 (also a returning character). Gruber claims to have discovered a progenitor-race artifact, buried in the Neury Mountains of World, that can control probability
Probability
Probability is ordinarily used to describe an attitude of mind towards some proposition of whose truth we arenot certain. The proposition of interest is usually of the form "Will a specific event occur?" The attitude of mind is of the form "How certain are we that the event will occur?" The...

, though unfortunately all he has is theory. To help study the artifact, Kaufman wants the aid of Dr. Thomas Capelo, a sarcastic and eccentric near-genius physicist
Physicist
A physicist is a scientist who studies or practices physics. Physicists study a wide range of physical phenomena in many branches of physics spanning all length scales: from sub-atomic particles of which all ordinary matter is made to the behavior of the material Universe as a whole...

 whose work on the relationship between quantum mechanics
Quantum mechanics
Quantum mechanics, also known as quantum physics or quantum theory, is a branch of physics providing a mathematical description of much of the dual particle-like and wave-like behavior and interactions of energy and matter. It departs from classical mechanics primarily at the atomic and subatomic...

 and probability has gotten him short-listed for the Nobel Prize. There is also a bit of a diplomatic tension: humans were declared "unreal" during the expedition chronicled in Probability Moon—a label which would cause Worlders to try to kill any visiting Terrans—and there is no reason to assume that ruling has been overturned in the intervening three years. Nonetheless, Kaufman is given permission to lead the expedition: if the artifact can do what Gruber claims it does, it may help turn the tide of the war—which the Fallers, who are believed to have duplicated the artifact's shielding properties, are winning.

Capelo proves to be just as recalcitrant as his reputation implies; he insists on bringing his 5- and 10-year-old daughters, Sudie and Amanda, on the military expedition. He also petitions Lyle to help him cut a "tiny secret door" in between his and his daughters' cabins aboard the warship Alan B. Shepherd, a highly-nonregulation request that Kaufman nonetheless approves. Kaufman is cognizant of the need to keep Capelo content; he is also aware that Capelo's wife was killed in a Faller attack on a civilian colony, and that he finds it difficult to think objectively when the safety of his remaining family is threatened (hence taking them into a war zone—though, to be fair, his analysis that they would be neither more nor less safe at home than at his side is fairly accurate). The other important "talent" aboard ship, Marbet Grant, is far easier to deal with; she is a genemod beauty who was engineered with extreme sensitivity to body language
Body language
Body language is a form of non-verbal communication, which consists of body posture, gestures, facial expressions, and eye movements. Humans send and interpret such signals almost entirely subconsciously....

, resulting in near-telepathy
Telepathy
Telepathy , is the induction of mental states from one mind to another. The term was coined in 1882 by the classical scholar Fredric W. H. Myers, a founder of the Society for Psychical Research, and has remained more popular than the more-correct expression thought-transference...

 that most humans find highly discomforting. Marbet is aboard due to the highly-secret second half of the mission—to capture a live Faller and communicate with it—in the hopes that her Sensitive abilities will facilitate the process. A live Faller is delivered to the Alan B. Shepherd on the World side of Space Tunnel 438, and Marbet sequesters herself with it in the hopes of establishing contact, much to the disappointment of Amanda and Sudie, who have grown very fond of her.

Now planetside, Capelo, Gruber and the other scientists perform extensive tests on the artifact, which is a miniature version of Orbital Object #7; dig it out from under the Neury Mountains; discover that it has been on at setting five the entire time; and eventually decide to activate it. Setting one, as with Orbital Object #7, destabilizes all molecules of any substance atomic number
Atomic number
In chemistry and physics, the atomic number is the number of protons found in the nucleus of an atom and therefore identical to the charge number of the nucleus. It is conventionally represented by the symbol Z. The atomic number uniquely identifies a chemical element...

 75 and upward, causing immediate radioactivity, but in a projected beam instead of a shockwave. Setting two appears to do nothing; setting three creates another, stronger and longer-ranged, destabilizing beam. Capelo hypothesizes that every other setting (two, five, eleven) creates a defensive shield; tests with laser weapons and, eventually, proton beamers prove his theory. Unfortunately, to test with the latter, the artifact must be moved off World, which creates complications.

Early during the expedition, the Terran contingent is approached by a group of Worlders, led by Hadjil Pek Voratur and Enli Pek Brimmidin, who offer hospitality flowers (orange and yellow) and declare that, due to the efforts of David Pek Allen during the last expedition, humans have been declared "real." Ann and Kaufman once again trade technology (commlinks, an offer of steam engine
Steam engine
A steam engine is a heat engine that performs mechanical work using steam as its working fluid.Steam engines are external combustion engines, where the working fluid is separate from the combustion products. Non-combustion heat sources such as solar power, nuclear power or geothermal energy may be...

s having already been declined) for Lagerfeld scans of Voratur's brains, and this time Enli's as well. Ann does this because she suspects Kaufman will move the Neury Mountains artifact offworld—and, if she does, the Worlders will lose the shared-reality mechanism, which she thinks developed as a response to the artifact having been activated on setting 5 for millions of years. As a test, she takes nine Worlders (including Voratur and Enli), up to the Alan B. Shepherd, where, indeed, they lose shared reality. Ann refuses to return to the Shepherd when the artifact is moved off-world, causing a rift between her and Dieter, and instead spreads the word on what will happen when the artifact is taken. Unfortunately for her, Capelo orders the artifact returned planetside to test setting five (which he thinks, correctly, will protect an entire planet against weapon strikes), causing utter chaos when shared reality returns—and then leaves again, after the test is completed and the humans go home with their prize. Both Ann and Dieter decide to stay behind, to help World cope with the loss of their violence-precluding shared reality and the Dark Ages that will result.

Marbet is unable to establish dialogue with the captured Faller, but she does elicit a reaction from it when she shows the Faller a model of the artifact; his reaction proves, to her, that the Fallers do indeed have their own copy. Unfortunately, this is a treason
Treason
In law, treason is the crime that covers some of the more extreme acts against one's sovereign or nation. Historically, treason also covered the murder of specific social superiors, such as the murder of a husband by his wife. Treason against the king was known as high treason and treason against a...

able offense, and Kaufman orders her arrested—much to his regret, since he is strongly attracted to her and she to him. When word comes down that the Fallers have destroyed an entire star system, the Viridian system, with a destabilizing attack that affected all elements above atomic number 50, Kaufman also realizes that he should have allowed Marbet to continue communicating with the Faller about the artifact. Ultimately, however, it is Capelo who breaks the stalemate. Sudie starts having nightmares, four or five at a time, after she overhears Marbet discussing that one of "the bad [aliens] who killed Mama dead!" is aboard. When Capelo finds this out, he attacks the Faller's cell, intent on revenge; after forcibly being subdued, he comes up with a more clever plan, involving using Marbet as his cover. Fortunately, Lyle anticipated his action; he once again restrains Capelo and then "allows" Marbet to continue her communication, specifically to find out what settings seven, eleven and thirteen do (hypothesized: planet-sized attack, system-sized shield, system-sized attack), and where the Fallers' artifact is kept when not in use. When the Faller displays extreme dismay, Marbet translates that he wasn't surprised that the humans suspect what setting thirteen does, but rather that they might want to use it. Using a whiteboard
Whiteboard
A whiteboard is a name for any glossy, usually white surface for nonpermanent markings. Whiteboards are analogous to chalkboards, allowing rapid marking and erasing of markings on their surface...

, he sketches out a diagram that shows the complete destruction of the known universe
Universe
The Universe is commonly defined as the totality of everything that exists, including all matter and energy, the planets, stars, galaxies, and the contents of intergalactic space. Definitions and usage vary and similar terms include the cosmos, the world and nature...

. This attracts Capelo's attention: "the son-of-a-bitch is a physicist." After all four are incapacitated by a gas attack (and the Faller killed due to the differences in physiology), Capelo works out the equations. He discovers that probability
Probability
Probability is ordinarily used to describe an attitude of mind towards some proposition of whose truth we arenot certain. The proposition of interest is usually of the form "Will a specific event occur?" The attitude of mind is of the form "How certain are we that the event will occur?" The...

 is also a universal force, carried by messenger particles much the same way light
Light
Light or visible light is electromagnetic radiation that is visible to the human eye, and is responsible for the sense of sight. Visible light has wavelength in a range from about 380 nanometres to about 740 nm, with a frequency range of about 405 THz to 790 THz...

, gravity and the strong and weak nuclear forces are; that the alien artifacts diffuse energy attacks by spending it on flop transitions in Calabi-Yau space
Calabi-Yau manifold
A Calabi-Yau manifold is a special type of manifold that shows up in certain branches of mathematics such as algebraic geometry, as well as in theoretical physics...

s; and that, if two artifacts are set off together at setting prime-thirteen, the resulting flop transition will engulf all of creation, causing the superstrings that comprise all matter to vibrate in different patterns, giving rise to new fundamental particles and essentially rewriting the universe.

Kaufman, Capelo and Marbet face a military tribunal for their treasonous actions, which (in collusion with the Faller physicist) unlocked the secret of the artifact. Capelo is questioned as to whether the progenitor-aliens have built a fail-safe into their destabilizer artifacts to prevent the complete destruction of the universe via setting thirteen; Capelo, of course, doesn't know. The three are saved from trouble by the advent of General Sullivan Stefanek, current leader of the Solar Alliance Defense Network High Council and (it is rumored) angling for a declaration of martial law
Martial law
Martial law is the imposition of military rule by military authorities over designated regions on an emergency basis— only temporary—when the civilian government or civilian authorities fail to function effectively , when there are extensive riots and protests, or when the disobedience of the law...

. He claims that he plans to hide the Protector Artifact, as it is now known, somewhere in the Sol System, set on eleven to protect against Faller incursions; this also gives him a secret weapon against any Terran rebels, whom he can blast with an unstoppable weapon. Capelo also deduces that the Fallers have not in fact unlocked the secrets of and reproduced the Protector Artifact; they merely have one of their own, and have been shuttling it everywhere to make it look like they have many. Marbet and Capelo are allowed to go free. Kaufman is assigned as commander of a distant starbase as a "diplomatic punishment," and eventually resigns from the service; he then approaches Marbet to help him make one more voyage to World, to see if he can undo the damage he did by taking the Protector Artifact and shared reality from them. The epilogue, told from Enli's point of view (now married and with child), reveals that, though life is difficult on World, the Worlders will survive.
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