Our Final Hour
Encyclopedia
Our Final Hour is a 2003 book
by the British
Astronomer Royal
Sir Martin Rees. The full title of the book is Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future In This Century - On Earth and Beyond. It was published in the United Kingdom
under the less dramatic title Our Final Century: Will the Human Race Survive the Twenty-first Century?.
The premise of the book is that the Earth
and human
survival are in far greater danger from the potential effects of modern technology
than is commonly realised, and that the 21st century may be a critical moment in history when humanity's fate is decided. Rees discusses a range of existential risk
s confronting humanity, and controversially estimates that the probability
of extinction
before 2100 CE is around 50 per cent, based on the possibility of malign or accidental release of destructive technology.
In order to avoid human extinction, Rees advocates control of scientific research worldwide, and control of open access to such research. He states that in the 1990s Aum Shinrikyo
tried unsuccessfully to obtain an Ebola
virus sample, which they could now create in their Mount Fuji
lab, using ingredients and instructions from the Internet
.
Rees has long been active in disarmament
campaigns, and although he now sees nuclear warfare
as a less probable cause of extinction, he advocates arms control
as much as control of science and technology (see also World government
). More concerning to him now is the possibility of major bioterrorist
attacks, as evidenced by his outstanding bet (registered with the Long Bet Project) that such events will occur within the next twenty years.
In terms of space exploration and survival through colonization, Rees is an advocate of the free market
solution, and believes that the wealthy will push back the frontiers of space.
Book
A book is a set or collection of written, printed, illustrated, or blank sheets, made of hot lava, paper, parchment, or other materials, usually fastened together to hinge at one side. A single sheet within a book is called a leaf or leaflet, and each side of a leaf is called a page...
by the British
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...
Astronomer Royal
Astronomer Royal
Astronomer Royal is a senior post in the Royal Household of the Sovereign of the United Kingdom. There are two officers, the senior being the Astronomer Royal dating from 22 June 1675; the second is the Astronomer Royal for Scotland dating from 1834....
Sir Martin Rees. The full title of the book is Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future In This Century - On Earth and Beyond. It was published in the United Kingdom
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...
under the less dramatic title Our Final Century: Will the Human Race Survive the Twenty-first Century?.
The premise of the book is that the Earth
Earth
Earth is the third planet from the Sun, and the densest and fifth-largest of the eight planets in the Solar System. It is also the largest of the Solar System's four terrestrial planets...
and human
Human
Humans are the only living species in the Homo genus...
survival are in far greater danger from the potential effects of modern technology
Technology
Technology is the making, usage, and knowledge of tools, machines, techniques, crafts, systems or methods of organization in order to solve a problem or perform a specific function. It can also refer to the collection of such tools, machinery, and procedures. The word technology comes ;...
than is commonly realised, and that the 21st century may be a critical moment in history when humanity's fate is decided. Rees discusses a range of existential risk
Existential risk
Existential risks are dangers that have the potential to destroy, or drastically restrict, human civilization. They are distinguished from other forms of risk both by their scope, affecting all of humanity, and severity; destroying or irreversibly crippling the target.Natural disasters, such as...
s confronting humanity, and controversially estimates that the probability
Probability
Probability is ordinarily used to describe an attitude of mind towards some proposition of whose truth we arenot certain. The proposition of interest is usually of the form "Will a specific event occur?" The attitude of mind is of the form "How certain are we that the event will occur?" The...
of extinction
Human extinction
Human extinction is the end of the human species. Various scenarios have been discussed in science, popular culture, and religion . The scope of this article is existential risks. Humans are very widespread on the Earth, and live in communities which are capable of some kind of basic survival in...
before 2100 CE is around 50 per cent, based on the possibility of malign or accidental release of destructive technology.
Humanity's fate and recommendations for survival
In Our Final Hour, Rees predicts that one of the two following outcomes is inevitable for humanity:- Human extinctionHuman extinctionHuman extinction is the end of the human species. Various scenarios have been discussed in science, popular culture, and religion . The scope of this article is existential risks. Humans are very widespread on the Earth, and live in communities which are capable of some kind of basic survival in...
, as a result of the runaway effects of new technology (e.g. nanotechnologyNanotechnologyNanotechnology is the study of manipulating matter on an atomic and molecular scale. Generally, nanotechnology deals with developing materials, devices, or other structures possessing at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100 nanometres...
) or uncontrolled scientific research; terroristTerrorismTerrorism is the systematic use of terror, especially as a means of coercion. In the international community, however, terrorism has no universally agreed, legally binding, criminal law definition...
or fundamentalistFundamentalismFundamentalism is strict adherence to specific theological doctrines usually understood as a reaction against Modernist theology. The term "fundamentalism" was originally coined by its supporters to describe a specific package of theological beliefs that developed into a movement within the...
violence; or destruction of the biosphereBiosphereThe biosphere is the global sum of all ecosystems. It can also be called the zone of life on Earth, a closed and self-regulating system...
; or - Human expansion throughout spaceSpace and survivalSpace and survival is the relationship between outer space and the long-term survival of the human species and civilization. Its investigation is justified by the fact that space colonization and space science could prevent many human extinction scenarios...
, by minimising, avoiding or overcoming these problems.
In order to avoid human extinction, Rees advocates control of scientific research worldwide, and control of open access to such research. He states that in the 1990s Aum Shinrikyo
Aum Shinrikyo
Aum Shinrikyo was a Japanese new religious movement. The group was founded by Shoko Asahara in 1984. The group gained international notoriety in 1995, when it carried out the Sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway....
tried unsuccessfully to obtain an Ebola
Ebola
Ebola virus disease is the name for the human disease which may be caused by any of the four known ebolaviruses. These four viruses are: Bundibugyo virus , Ebola virus , Sudan virus , and Taï Forest virus...
virus sample, which they could now create in their Mount Fuji
Mount Fuji
is the highest mountain in Japan at . An active stratovolcano that last erupted in 1707–08, Mount Fuji lies about south-west of Tokyo, and can be seen from there on a clear day. Mount Fuji's exceptionally symmetrical cone is a well-known symbol of Japan and it is frequently depicted in art and...
lab, using ingredients and instructions from the Internet
Internet
The Internet is a global system of interconnected computer networks that use the standard Internet protocol suite to serve billions of users worldwide...
.
Rees has long been active in disarmament
Disarmament
Disarmament is the act of reducing, limiting, or abolishing weapons. Disarmament generally refers to a country's military or specific type of weaponry. Disarmament is often taken to mean total elimination of weapons of mass destruction, such as nuclear arms...
campaigns, and although he now sees nuclear warfare
Nuclear warfare
Nuclear warfare, or atomic warfare, is a military conflict or political strategy in which nuclear weaponry is detonated on an opponent. Compared to conventional warfare, nuclear warfare can be vastly more destructive in range and extent of damage...
as a less probable cause of extinction, he advocates arms control
Arms control
Arms control is an umbrella term for restrictions upon the development, production, stockpiling, proliferation, and usage of weapons, especially weapons of mass destruction...
as much as control of science and technology (see also World government
World government
World government is the notion of a single common political authority for all of humanity. Its modern conception is rooted in European history, particularly in the philosophy of ancient Greece, in the political formation of the Roman Empire, and in the subsequent struggle between secular authority,...
). More concerning to him now is the possibility of major bioterrorist
Bioterrorism
Bioterrorism is terrorism involving the intentional release or dissemination of biological agents. These agents are bacteria, viruses, or toxins, and may be in a naturally occurring or a human-modified form. For the use of this method in warfare, see biological warfare.-Definition:According to the...
attacks, as evidenced by his outstanding bet (registered with the Long Bet Project) that such events will occur within the next twenty years.
In terms of space exploration and survival through colonization, Rees is an advocate of the free market
Free market
A free market is a competitive market where prices are determined by supply and demand. However, the term is also commonly used for markets in which economic intervention and regulation by the state is limited to tax collection, and enforcement of private ownership and contracts...
solution, and believes that the wealthy will push back the frontiers of space.
Reviews
- Review by Steven B Kurtz in FUTURES http://www.peakoilandhumanity.com/kurtz_folder/our_final_century.htm Kurtz largely agrees with Rees, but balks at the implied Anthropic Principle.
- Review by John Derbyshire in The National Review — Derbyshire is convinced by Rees's argument and considers that human extinction does not seem improbable.
- Review by Oliver Morton in The Guardian — Morton believes that Rees's 50% chance of extinction is too high and states that "defences against bioterror will evolve in step with the threat. It is entirely conceivable that there will be no last move, and no final 'game over'".
- Review at sentientdevelopments.com which agrees with Sir Martin's broad predictions and estimate of extinction but criticizes the book on the grounds that it is oversimplified, and prejudiced against the positive aspects of transhumanismTranshumanismTranshumanism, often abbreviated as H+ or h+, is an international intellectual and cultural movement that affirms the possibility and desirability of fundamentally transforming the human condition by developing and making widely available technologies to eliminate aging and to greatly enhance human...
. - Review by The Universe Today which finds the book to be anti-science, and "short on solutions that could help guide policy".
Further reading
- Rees does not object to the probabilistic argumentProbabilistic argumentProbabilistic argument can refer to the following:* In some contexts, probabilistic argument means any argument involving probability theory...
for human extinction offered by the Doomsday argumentDoomsday argumentThe Doomsday argument is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the number of future members of the human species given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far...
(as championed by John Leslie in the 1996 book The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction (Routledge, hardcover: ISBN 0-415-14043-9, paperback: ISBN 0-415-18447-9)), but he does not consider it to describe the practical threats and solutions that he discusses.
- In The Singularity is NearThe Singularity Is NearThe Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology is a 2005 update of Raymond Kurzweil's 1999 book, The Age of Spiritual Machines and his 1990 book The Age of Intelligent Machines. In it, as in the two previous versions, Kurzweil attempts to give a glimpse of what awaits us in the near future...
, Raymond KurzweilRaymond KurzweilRaymond "Ray" Kurzweil is an American author, inventor and futurist. He is involved in fields such as optical character recognition , text-to-speech synthesis, speech recognition technology, and electronic keyboard instruments...
reaches the same conclusion as Rees on the probability of human extinction within the 21st century.
- In the 2004 book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or SucceedCollapse (book)Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed is a 2005 book by Jared M. Diamond, professor of geography and physiology at University of California, Los Angeles...
(Viking Adult, ISBN 0-670-03337-5), Jared DiamondJared DiamondJared Mason Diamond is an American scientist and author whose work draws from a variety of fields. He is currently Professor of Geography and Physiology at UCLA...
suggests that Sir Martin's hopes of worldwide cooperation in avoiding extinction scenarios may be in vain.
- Ronald WrightRonald WrightRonald Wright is a Canadian author who has written books of travel, history and fiction. His nonfiction includes the bestseller Stolen Continents, winner of the Gordon Montador Award and chosen as a book of the year by the Independent and the Sunday Times...
, who quotes Martin Rees with approval in A Short History of ProgressA Short History of ProgressA Short History of Progress is a non-fiction book and lecture series by Ronald Wright about societal collapse. The lectures were delivered as a series of five speeches, each taking place in different cities across Canada as part of the 2004 Massey Lectures which was broadcast on the CBC Radio...
(at p. 125–6), is just as pessimistic – much more so than Jared DiamondJared DiamondJared Mason Diamond is an American scientist and author whose work draws from a variety of fields. He is currently Professor of Geography and Physiology at UCLA...
– and argues that human history reveals a disastrous series of technological progress trapProgress trapA progress trap is the condition human societies experience when, in pursuing progress through human ingenuity, they inadvertently introduce problems they do not have the resources or political will to solve, for fear of short-term losses in status, stability or quality of life...
s.
See also
- apocalypseApocalypseAn Apocalypse is a disclosure of something hidden from the majority of mankind in an era dominated by falsehood and misconception, i.e. the veil to be lifted. The Apocalypse of John is the Book of Revelation, the last book of the New Testament...
- eschatologyEschatologyEschatology is a part of theology, philosophy, and futurology concerned with what are believed to be the final events in history, or the ultimate destiny of humanity, commonly referred to as the end of the world or the World to Come...
- end of civilization
- extinctionExtinctionIn biology and ecology, extinction is the end of an organism or of a group of organisms , normally a species. The moment of extinction is generally considered to be the death of the last individual of the species, although the capacity to breed and recover may have been lost before this point...
- Fermi paradoxFermi paradoxThe Fermi paradox is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations....
- human extinctionHuman extinctionHuman extinction is the end of the human species. Various scenarios have been discussed in science, popular culture, and religion . The scope of this article is existential risks. Humans are very widespread on the Earth, and live in communities which are capable of some kind of basic survival in...
- millenarianismMillenarianismMillenarianism is the belief by a religious, social, or political group or movement in a coming major transformation of society, after which all things will be changed, based on a one-thousand-year cycle. The term is more generically used to refer to any belief centered around 1000 year intervals...
- societal collapseSocietal collapseSocietal collapse broadly includes both quite abrupt societal failures typified by collapses , as well as more extended gradual declines of superpowers...
- technological singularityTechnological singularityTechnological singularity refers to the hypothetical future emergence of greater-than-human intelligence through technological means. Since the capabilities of such an intelligence would be difficult for an unaided human mind to comprehend, the occurrence of a technological singularity is seen as...
Publication data
- Sir Martin Rees, Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future In This Century—On Earth and Beyond (2003), Basic Books, hardcover: ISBN 0-465-06862-6, 2004 paperback: ISBN 0-465-06863-4
- Our Final Century?: Will the Human Race Survive the Twenty-first Century? (2003) William Heinemann, hardcover: ISBN 0-434-00809-5, 2004 Arrow paperback: ISBN 0-09-943686-8