Opinion polling for the Australian federal election, 2010
Encyclopedia
This article provides a list of federal opinion polls that were conducted between the 2007 election and 2010 election.

JWS poll of 28,000

A JWS Research "mega-poll", published by Fairfax
Fairfax Media
Fairfax Media Limited is one of Australia's largest diversified media companies. The group's operations include newspapers, magazines, radios and digital media operating in Australia and New Zealand. Fairfax Media was founded by the Fairfax family as John Fairfax and Sons, later to become John...

, polled an Australian record 22,000 voters in 54 marginal seats and a further 6,000 in safe seats late in the campaign. It revealed a national two-party preferred vote for Labor of 51.6 percent. Losses in Queensland and New South Wales were offset by the gains of Dunkley
Division of Dunkley
The Division of Dunkley is an Australian Electoral Division in Victoria. The division was created in 1984 and is named for Louisa Margaret Dunkley, a trade unionist and campaigner for equal pay for women. It is located in...

, McEwen
Division of McEwen
The Division of McEwen is an Australian Electoral Division in the state of Victoria. It is located in the centre of the state, north of the capital city of Melbourne...

 (both 57 percent), and Cowper
Division of Cowper
The Division of Cowper is an Australian Electoral Division in New South Wales. The division was created in 1900 and was one of the original 75 divisions contested at the first federal election and is named for Charles Cowper, an early Premier of New South Wales...

 and Boothby
Division of Boothby
The Division of Boothby is an Australian Electoral Division in South Australia. The division was created in 1903 and is named after William Boothby , the Returning Officer for the first election of Members of the House of Representatives in 1901....

 (both 54 percent), with a total of 79 Labor, 68 coalition, 3 independent.

Newspoll

Newspoll
Newspoll
Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian....

 federal polling, published in The Australian
The Australian
The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly....

, consists of voting intention, better prime minister and leader satisfaction-dissatisfaction ratings, and is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide, Friday to Sunday, usually each fortnight. Sampling sizes
Sample size
Sample size determination is the act of choosing the number of observations to include in a statistical sample. The sample size is an important feature of any empirical study in which the goal is to make inferences about a population from a sample...

 consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error
Margin of error
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. The larger the margin of error, the less faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures; that is, the figures for the whole population...

 is ± 3 percentage points.

Voting intention

(<) – since July 2010, Newspoll has not provided a separate Liberal and National primary vote, therefore from 23–25 July 2010 the Liberal column displays the coalition primary vote.
House of Representatives opinion polling
Political parties Two-party-preferred
ALP Lib Nat Grn Oth ALP Lib/Nat
17–19 Aug 2010 36.2% 43.4% < 13.9% 6.5% 50.2% 49.8%
13–15 Aug 2010 38% 41% < 14% 7% 52% 48%
6–8 Aug 2010 38% 42% < 13% 7% 52% 48%
30 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 37% 44% < 12% 7% 50% 50%
23–25 Jul 2010 40% 42% < 12% 6% 52% 48%
16–18 Jul 2010 42% 34% 4% 12% 8% 55% 45%
25–27 Jun 2010 42% 37% 3% 10% 8% 53% 47%
18–20 Jun 2010 35% 36% 4% 15% 10% 52% 48%
28–30 May 2010 35% 38% 3% 16% 8% 51% 49%
14–16 May 2010 37% 40% 3% 12% 8% 50% 50%
30 Apr-2 May 2010 35% 38% 5% 10% 12% 49% 51%
16–18 Apr 2010 43% 37% 3% 10% 7% 54% 46%
26–28 Mar 2010 43% 35% 3% 12% 7% 56% 44%
12–14 Mar 2010 39% 37% 4% 11% 9% 52% 48%
26–28 Feb 2010 40% 37% 4% 9% 10% 52% 48%
12–14 Feb 2010 39% 36% 4% 12% 9% 53% 47%
29–31 Jan 2010 40% 37% 4% 12% 7% 52% 48%
15–17 Jan 2010 40% 34% 4% 12% 10% 54% 46%
4–6 Dec 2009 43% 34% 4% 11% 8% 56% 44%
27–29 Nov 2009 43% 30% 5% 12% 10% 57% 43%
13–15 Nov 2009 43% 33% 4% 11% 9% 56% 44%
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2009 41% 36% 5% 10% 8% 52% 48%
16–18 Oct 2009 48% 30% 4% 10% 8% 59% 41%
28 Sep – 1 Oct 2009 46% 31% 4% 10% 9% 58% 42%
18–20 Sep 2009 43% 33% 5% 11% 8% 55% 45%
4–6 Sep 2009 44% 35% 4% 10% 7% 55% 45%
21–23 Aug 2009 44% 34% 4% 9% 9% 55% 45%
7–9 Aug 2009 45% 33% 4% 10% 8% 57% 43%
24–26 Jul 2009 46% 34% 4% 9% 7% 57% 43%
10–12 Jul 2009 43% 34% 5% 11% 7% 55% 45%
26–28 Jun 2009 44% 32% 5% 10% 9% 56% 44%
12–14 Jun 2009 41% 36% 4% 11% 8% 53% 47%
29–31 May 2009 43% 35% 3% 10% 9% 55% 45%
15–17 May 2009 46% 34% 3% 9% 8% 56% 44%
1–3 May 2009 42% 35% 3% 11% 9% 55% 45%
17–19 Apr 2009 47% 33% 4% 9% 7% 58% 42%
3–5 Apr 2009 47% 32% 4% 9% 8% 58% 42%
20–22 Mar 2009 45% 32% 5% 8% 10% 56% 44%
7–9 Mar 2009 44% 32% 4% 10% 10% 56% 44%
20–22 Feb 2009 47% 33% 3% 9% 8% 58% 42%
6–8 Feb 2009 48% 32% 4% 8% 8% 58% 42%
16–18 Jan 2009 43% 35% 4% 10% 8% 54% 46%
5–7 Dec 2008 48% 32% 3% 10% 7% 59% 41%
21–23 Nov 2008 42% 33% 5% 11% 9% 55% 45%
7–9 Nov 2008 44% 35% 3% 9% 9% 55% 45%
24–26 Oct 2008 44% 36% 3% 9% 8% 54% 46%
10–12 Oct 2008 41% 34% 4% 13% 8% 55% 45%
19–21 Sep 2008 42% 34% 4% 10% 10% 55% 45%
5–7 Sep 2008 44% 34% 3% 11% 8% 56% 44%
22–24 Aug 2008 45% 34% 4% 8% 9% 56% 44%
8–10 Aug 2008 47% 33% 5% 9% 6% 57% 43%
25–27 Jul 2008 47% 33% 4% 10% 6% 57% 43%
11–13 Jul 2008 43% 33% 5% 11% 8% 55% 45%
27–29 Jun 2008 44% 34% 5% 10% 7% 55% 45%
13–15 Jun 2008 46% 29% 4% 12% 9% 59% 41%
30 May – 1 Jun 2008 46% 33% 4% 10% 7% 57% 43%
16–18 May 2008 47% 34% 3% 9% 7% 57% 43%
2–4 May 2008 47% 33% 4% 9% 7% 57% 43%
18–20 Apr 2008 51% 30% 4% 9% 6% 61% 39%
4–6 Apr 2008 48% 32% 3% 10% 7% 59% 41%
14–16 Mar 2008 47% 31% 4% 11% 7% 59% 41%
29 Feb – 2 Mar 2008 51% 28% 3% 10% 8% 63% 37%
15–17 Feb 2008 46% 33% 3% 10% 8% 57% 43%
18–20 Jan 2008 46% 32% 3% 12% 7% 58% 42%
2007 Election 43.4% 36.6% 5.5% 7.8% 6.7% 52.7% 47.3%
20–22 Nov 2007 44% 39% 4% 7% 6% 52% 48%
Polling conducted by Newspoll
Newspoll
Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian....

 and published in The Australian
The Australian
The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly....

.


Leader ratings

Better Prime Minister^
Date Labor
Gillard
Julia Gillard
Julia Eileen Gillard is the 27th and current Prime Minister of Australia, in office since June 2010.Gillard was born in Barry, Vale of Glamorgan, Wales and migrated with her family to Adelaide, Australia in 1966, attending Mitcham Demonstration School and Unley High School. In 1982 Gillard moved...

Liberal
Abbott
Tony Abbott
Anthony John "Tony" Abbott is the Leader of the Opposition in the Australian House of Representatives and federal leader of the centre-right Liberal Party of Australia. Abbott has represented the seat of Warringah since the 1994 by-election...

17–19 Aug 2010 50% 37%
13–15 Aug 2010 50% 35%
6–8 Aug 2010 49% 34%
30 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 50% 35%
23–25 Jul 2010 50% 34%
16–18 Jul 2010 57% 27%
25–27 Jun 2010 53% 29%
Rudd
Kevin Rudd
Kevin Michael Rudd is an Australian politician who was the 26th Prime Minister of Australia from 2007 to 2010. He has been Minister for Foreign Affairs since 2010...

Abbott
18–20 Jun 2010 46% 37%
28–30 May 2010 49% 33%
14–16 May 2010 49% 33%
30 Apr – 2 May 2010 50% 32%
16–18 Apr 2010 56% 29%
26–28 Mar 2010 59% 27%
12–14 Mar 2010 55% 30%
26–28 Feb 2010 55% 30%
12–14 Feb 2010 55% 27%
29–31 Jan 2010 58% 26%
15–17 Jan 2010 57% 25%
4–6 Dec 2009 60% 23%
Rudd Turnbull
Malcolm Turnbull
Malcolm Bligh Turnbull is an Australian politician. He has been a member of the Australian House of Representatives since 2004, and was Leader of the Opposition and parliamentary leader of the Liberal Party from 16 September 2008 to 1 December 2009.Turnbull has represented the Division...

27–29 Nov 2009 65% 14%
13–15 Nov 2009 63% 22%
30 Oct-1 Nov 2009 63% 19%
16–18 Oct 2009 65% 19%
28 Sep-1 Oct 2009 67% 18%
18–20 Sep 2009 65% 17%
4–6 Sep 2009 67% 19%
21–23 Aug 2009 66% 19%
7–9 Aug 2009 65% 17%
24–26 Jul 2009 66% 16%
10–12 Jul 2009 64% 19%
26–28 Jun 2009 65% 18%
12–14 Jun 2009 57% 25%
29–31 May 2009 57% 24%
15–17 May 2009 58% 24%
1–3 May 2009 64% 19%
17–19 Apr 2009 67% 19%
3–5 Apr 2009 67% 18%
20–22 Mar 2009 65% 20%
7–9 Mar 2009 61% 21%
20–22 Feb 2009 64% 20%
6–8 Feb 2009 62% 20%
16–18 Jan 2009 60% 22%
5–7 Dec 2008 66% 19%
21–23 Nov 2008 63% 21%
7–9 Nov 2008 62% 22%
24–26 Oct 2008 59% 25%
10–12 Oct 2008 54% 26%
19–21 Sep 2008 54% 24%
Rudd Nelson
Brendan Nelson
Dr Brendan John Nelson is a former Australian politician and former federal Opposition leader. He served as a member of the Australian House of Representatives from the 1996 federal election until 19 October 2009 as the Liberal member for Bradfield, a northern Sydney seat...

5–7 Sep 2008 62% 16%
22–24 Aug 2008 65% 14%
8–10 Aug 2008 68% 12%
25–27 Jul 2008 66% 14%
11–13 Jul 2008 65% 14%
27–29 Jun 2008 64% 15%
13–15 Jun 2008 68% 13%
30 May – 1 Jun 2008 66% 17%
16–18 May 2008 70% 12%
2–4 May 2008 72% 9%
18–20 Apr 2008 71% 10%
4–6 Apr 2008 73% 9%
14–16 Mar 2008 70% 10%
29 Feb – 2 Mar 2008 73% 7%
15–17 Feb 2008 70% 9%
18–20 Jan 2008 68% 11%
30 Nov – 2 Dec 2007 61% 14%
Rudd Howard
John Howard
John Winston Howard AC, SSI, was the 25th Prime Minister of Australia, from 11 March 1996 to 3 December 2007. He was the second-longest serving Australian Prime Minister after Sir Robert Menzies....

20–22 Nov 2007 47% 44%
Polling conducted by Newspoll
Newspoll
Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian....

 and published in The Australian
The Australian
The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly....

.
^Remainder were "uncommitted".
Satisfaction^
Gillard Abbott
Date Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
44% 42% 13–15 Aug 2010 38% 46%
43% 41% 30 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 40% 46%
41% 40% 16–18 Jul 2010 29% 51%
N/A (new) 42% Rudd Abbott
36% 38% 28–30 May 2010 54% 49%
39% 42% 30 Apr – 2 May 2010 50% 43%
50% 46% 26–28 Mar 2010 39% 43%
48% 47% 26–28 Feb 2010 40% 38%
50% 44% 29–31 Jan 2010 38% 39%
52% 40% 4–6 Dec 2009 32% N/A (new)
Rudd Turnbull
56% 36% 13–15 Nov 2009 34% 50%
59% 32% 16–18 Oct 2009 28% 54%
67% 33% Polling conducted by Newspoll
Newspoll
Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian....

 and published in The Australian
The Australian
The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly....

.
^Remainder were "uncommitted".


Roy Morgan

The Roy Morgan poll consists of two different sampling. There is a face to face interview and a phone interview to sample voting intention, which is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide.
House of Representatives - Face to Face Interview
Political parties Two-party-preferred
ALP Lib Nat Grn Oth ALP Lib/Nat
7–8 Aug 2010 43% 33.5% 3.5% 15.5% 2% 57.5% 42.5%
31 July – 1 Aug 2010 44% 39% 2% 10% 4% 53% 47%
24–25 July 2010 43.5% 35% 2% 11.5% 6.5% 55.5% 44.5%
17–18 July 2010 44.5% 35% 4.5% 10.5% 4% 56% 44%
Polling conducted by Roy Morgan.


See also

  • Australian federal election, 2010
  • Australian federal election, 2007
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