Opinion polling for the Australian federal election, 2010
Encyclopedia
This article provides a list of federal opinion polls that were conducted between the 2007 election and 2010 election.
, polled an Australian record 22,000 voters in 54 marginal seats and a further 6,000 in safe seats late in the campaign. It revealed a national two-party preferred vote for Labor of 51.6 percent. Losses in Queensland and New South Wales were offset by the gains of Dunkley
, McEwen
(both 57 percent), and Cowper
and Boothby
(both 54 percent), with a total of 79 Labor, 68 coalition, 3 independent.
federal polling, published in The Australian
, consists of voting intention, better prime minister and leader satisfaction-dissatisfaction ratings, and is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide, Friday to Sunday, usually each fortnight. Sampling sizes
consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error
is ± 3 percentage points.
JWS poll of 28,000
A JWS Research "mega-poll", published by FairfaxFairfax Media
Fairfax Media Limited is one of Australia's largest diversified media companies. The group's operations include newspapers, magazines, radios and digital media operating in Australia and New Zealand. Fairfax Media was founded by the Fairfax family as John Fairfax and Sons, later to become John...
, polled an Australian record 22,000 voters in 54 marginal seats and a further 6,000 in safe seats late in the campaign. It revealed a national two-party preferred vote for Labor of 51.6 percent. Losses in Queensland and New South Wales were offset by the gains of Dunkley
Division of Dunkley
The Division of Dunkley is an Australian Electoral Division in Victoria. The division was created in 1984 and is named for Louisa Margaret Dunkley, a trade unionist and campaigner for equal pay for women. It is located in...
, McEwen
Division of McEwen
The Division of McEwen is an Australian Electoral Division in the state of Victoria. It is located in the centre of the state, north of the capital city of Melbourne...
(both 57 percent), and Cowper
Division of Cowper
The Division of Cowper is an Australian Electoral Division in New South Wales. The division was created in 1900 and was one of the original 75 divisions contested at the first federal election and is named for Charles Cowper, an early Premier of New South Wales...
and Boothby
Division of Boothby
The Division of Boothby is an Australian Electoral Division in South Australia. The division was created in 1903 and is named after William Boothby , the Returning Officer for the first election of Members of the House of Representatives in 1901....
(both 54 percent), with a total of 79 Labor, 68 coalition, 3 independent.
Newspoll
NewspollNewspoll
Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian....
federal polling, published in The Australian
The Australian
The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly....
, consists of voting intention, better prime minister and leader satisfaction-dissatisfaction ratings, and is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide, Friday to Sunday, usually each fortnight. Sampling sizes
Sample size
Sample size determination is the act of choosing the number of observations to include in a statistical sample. The sample size is an important feature of any empirical study in which the goal is to make inferences about a population from a sample...
consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error
Margin of error
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. The larger the margin of error, the less faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures; that is, the figures for the whole population...
is ± 3 percentage points.
Voting intention
(<) – since July 2010, Newspoll has not provided a separate Liberal and National primary vote, therefore from 23–25 July 2010 the Liberal column displays the coalition primary vote.Political parties | Two-party-preferred | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | Lib | Nat | Grn | Oth | ALP | Lib/Nat | ||||
17–19 Aug 2010 | 36.2% | 43.4% | < | 13.9% | 6.5% | 50.2% | 49.8% | |||
13–15 Aug 2010 | 38% | 41% | < | 14% | 7% | 52% | 48% | |||
6–8 Aug 2010 | 38% | 42% | < | 13% | 7% | 52% | 48% | |||
30 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 | 37% | 44% | < | 12% | 7% | 50% | 50% | |||
23–25 Jul 2010 | 40% | 42% | < | 12% | 6% | 52% | 48% | |||
16–18 Jul 2010 | 42% | 34% | 4% | 12% | 8% | 55% | 45% | |||
25–27 Jun 2010 | 42% | 37% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 53% | 47% | |||
18–20 Jun 2010 | 35% | 36% | 4% | 15% | 10% | 52% | 48% | |||
28–30 May 2010 | 35% | 38% | 3% | 16% | 8% | 51% | 49% | |||
14–16 May 2010 | 37% | 40% | 3% | 12% | 8% | 50% | 50% | |||
30 Apr-2 May 2010 | 35% | 38% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 49% | 51% | |||
16–18 Apr 2010 | 43% | 37% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 54% | 46% | |||
26–28 Mar 2010 | 43% | 35% | 3% | 12% | 7% | 56% | 44% | |||
12–14 Mar 2010 | 39% | 37% | 4% | 11% | 9% | 52% | 48% | |||
26–28 Feb 2010 | 40% | 37% | 4% | 9% | 10% | 52% | 48% | |||
12–14 Feb 2010 | 39% | 36% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 53% | 47% | |||
29–31 Jan 2010 | 40% | 37% | 4% | 12% | 7% | 52% | 48% | |||
15–17 Jan 2010 | 40% | 34% | 4% | 12% | 10% | 54% | 46% | |||
4–6 Dec 2009 | 43% | 34% | 4% | 11% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
27–29 Nov 2009 | 43% | 30% | 5% | 12% | 10% | 57% | 43% | |||
13–15 Nov 2009 | 43% | 33% | 4% | 11% | 9% | 56% | 44% | |||
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2009 | 41% | 36% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 52% | 48% | |||
16–18 Oct 2009 | 48% | 30% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 59% | 41% | |||
28 Sep – 1 Oct 2009 | 46% | 31% | 4% | 10% | 9% | 58% | 42% | |||
18–20 Sep 2009 | 43% | 33% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 55% | 45% | |||
4–6 Sep 2009 | 44% | 35% | 4% | 10% | 7% | 55% | 45% | |||
21–23 Aug 2009 | 44% | 34% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
7–9 Aug 2009 | 45% | 33% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 57% | 43% | |||
24–26 Jul 2009 | 46% | 34% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
10–12 Jul 2009 | 43% | 34% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 55% | 45% | |||
26–28 Jun 2009 | 44% | 32% | 5% | 10% | 9% | 56% | 44% | |||
12–14 Jun 2009 | 41% | 36% | 4% | 11% | 8% | 53% | 47% | |||
29–31 May 2009 | 43% | 35% | 3% | 10% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
15–17 May 2009 | 46% | 34% | 3% | 9% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
1–3 May 2009 | 42% | 35% | 3% | 11% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
17–19 Apr 2009 | 47% | 33% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 58% | 42% | |||
3–5 Apr 2009 | 47% | 32% | 4% | 9% | 8% | 58% | 42% | |||
20–22 Mar 2009 | 45% | 32% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 56% | 44% | |||
7–9 Mar 2009 | 44% | 32% | 4% | 10% | 10% | 56% | 44% | |||
20–22 Feb 2009 | 47% | 33% | 3% | 9% | 8% | 58% | 42% | |||
6–8 Feb 2009 | 48% | 32% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 58% | 42% | |||
16–18 Jan 2009 | 43% | 35% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 54% | 46% | |||
5–7 Dec 2008 | 48% | 32% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 59% | 41% | |||
21–23 Nov 2008 | 42% | 33% | 5% | 11% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
7–9 Nov 2008 | 44% | 35% | 3% | 9% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
24–26 Oct 2008 | 44% | 36% | 3% | 9% | 8% | 54% | 46% | |||
10–12 Oct 2008 | 41% | 34% | 4% | 13% | 8% | 55% | 45% | |||
19–21 Sep 2008 | 42% | 34% | 4% | 10% | 10% | 55% | 45% | |||
5–7 Sep 2008 | 44% | 34% | 3% | 11% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
22–24 Aug 2008 | 45% | 34% | 4% | 8% | 9% | 56% | 44% | |||
8–10 Aug 2008 | 47% | 33% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 57% | 43% | |||
25–27 Jul 2008 | 47% | 33% | 4% | 10% | 6% | 57% | 43% | |||
11–13 Jul 2008 | 43% | 33% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 55% | 45% | |||
27–29 Jun 2008 | 44% | 34% | 5% | 10% | 7% | 55% | 45% | |||
13–15 Jun 2008 | 46% | 29% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 59% | 41% | |||
30 May – 1 Jun 2008 | 46% | 33% | 4% | 10% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
16–18 May 2008 | 47% | 34% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
2–4 May 2008 | 47% | 33% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
18–20 Apr 2008 | 51% | 30% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 61% | 39% | |||
4–6 Apr 2008 | 48% | 32% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 59% | 41% | |||
14–16 Mar 2008 | 47% | 31% | 4% | 11% | 7% | 59% | 41% | |||
29 Feb – 2 Mar 2008 | 51% | 28% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 63% | 37% | |||
15–17 Feb 2008 | 46% | 33% | 3% | 10% | 8% | 57% | 43% | |||
18–20 Jan 2008 | 46% | 32% | 3% | 12% | 7% | 58% | 42% | |||
2007 Election | 43.4% | 36.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 52.7% | 47.3% | |||
20–22 Nov 2007 | 44% | 39% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 52% | 48% | |||
Polling conducted by Newspoll Newspoll Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian.... and published in The Australian The Australian The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly.... . |
Leader ratings
Date | Labor Gillard Julia Gillard Julia Eileen Gillard is the 27th and current Prime Minister of Australia, in office since June 2010.Gillard was born in Barry, Vale of Glamorgan, Wales and migrated with her family to Adelaide, Australia in 1966, attending Mitcham Demonstration School and Unley High School. In 1982 Gillard moved... |
Liberal Abbott Tony Abbott Anthony John "Tony" Abbott is the Leader of the Opposition in the Australian House of Representatives and federal leader of the centre-right Liberal Party of Australia. Abbott has represented the seat of Warringah since the 1994 by-election... |
---|---|---|
17–19 Aug 2010 | 50% | 37% |
13–15 Aug 2010 | 50% | 35% |
6–8 Aug 2010 | 49% | 34% |
30 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 | 50% | 35% |
23–25 Jul 2010 | 50% | 34% |
16–18 Jul 2010 | 57% | 27% |
25–27 Jun 2010 | 53% | 29% |
Rudd Kevin Rudd Kevin Michael Rudd is an Australian politician who was the 26th Prime Minister of Australia from 2007 to 2010. He has been Minister for Foreign Affairs since 2010... |
Abbott | |
18–20 Jun 2010 | 46% | 37% |
28–30 May 2010 | 49% | 33% |
14–16 May 2010 | 49% | 33% |
30 Apr – 2 May 2010 | 50% | 32% |
16–18 Apr 2010 | 56% | 29% |
26–28 Mar 2010 | 59% | 27% |
12–14 Mar 2010 | 55% | 30% |
26–28 Feb 2010 | 55% | 30% |
12–14 Feb 2010 | 55% | 27% |
29–31 Jan 2010 | 58% | 26% |
15–17 Jan 2010 | 57% | 25% |
4–6 Dec 2009 | 60% | 23% |
Rudd | Turnbull Malcolm Turnbull Malcolm Bligh Turnbull is an Australian politician. He has been a member of the Australian House of Representatives since 2004, and was Leader of the Opposition and parliamentary leader of the Liberal Party from 16 September 2008 to 1 December 2009.Turnbull has represented the Division... |
|
27–29 Nov 2009 | 65% | 14% |
13–15 Nov 2009 | 63% | 22% |
30 Oct-1 Nov 2009 | 63% | 19% |
16–18 Oct 2009 | 65% | 19% |
28 Sep-1 Oct 2009 | 67% | 18% |
18–20 Sep 2009 | 65% | 17% |
4–6 Sep 2009 | 67% | 19% |
21–23 Aug 2009 | 66% | 19% |
7–9 Aug 2009 | 65% | 17% |
24–26 Jul 2009 | 66% | 16% |
10–12 Jul 2009 | 64% | 19% |
26–28 Jun 2009 | 65% | 18% |
12–14 Jun 2009 | 57% | 25% |
29–31 May 2009 | 57% | 24% |
15–17 May 2009 | 58% | 24% |
1–3 May 2009 | 64% | 19% |
17–19 Apr 2009 | 67% | 19% |
3–5 Apr 2009 | 67% | 18% |
20–22 Mar 2009 | 65% | 20% |
7–9 Mar 2009 | 61% | 21% |
20–22 Feb 2009 | 64% | 20% |
6–8 Feb 2009 | 62% | 20% |
16–18 Jan 2009 | 60% | 22% |
5–7 Dec 2008 | 66% | 19% |
21–23 Nov 2008 | 63% | 21% |
7–9 Nov 2008 | 62% | 22% |
24–26 Oct 2008 | 59% | 25% |
10–12 Oct 2008 | 54% | 26% |
19–21 Sep 2008 | 54% | 24% |
Rudd | Nelson Brendan Nelson Dr Brendan John Nelson is a former Australian politician and former federal Opposition leader. He served as a member of the Australian House of Representatives from the 1996 federal election until 19 October 2009 as the Liberal member for Bradfield, a northern Sydney seat... |
|
5–7 Sep 2008 | 62% | 16% |
22–24 Aug 2008 | 65% | 14% |
8–10 Aug 2008 | 68% | 12% |
25–27 Jul 2008 | 66% | 14% |
11–13 Jul 2008 | 65% | 14% |
27–29 Jun 2008 | 64% | 15% |
13–15 Jun 2008 | 68% | 13% |
30 May – 1 Jun 2008 | 66% | 17% |
16–18 May 2008 | 70% | 12% |
2–4 May 2008 | 72% | 9% |
18–20 Apr 2008 | 71% | 10% |
4–6 Apr 2008 | 73% | 9% |
14–16 Mar 2008 | 70% | 10% |
29 Feb – 2 Mar 2008 | 73% | 7% |
15–17 Feb 2008 | 70% | 9% |
18–20 Jan 2008 | 68% | 11% |
30 Nov – 2 Dec 2007 | 61% | 14% |
Rudd | Howard John Howard John Winston Howard AC, SSI, was the 25th Prime Minister of Australia, from 11 March 1996 to 3 December 2007. He was the second-longest serving Australian Prime Minister after Sir Robert Menzies.... |
|
20–22 Nov 2007 | 47% | 44% |
Polling conducted by Newspoll Newspoll Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian.... and published in The Australian The Australian The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly.... . ^Remainder were "uncommitted". |
Gillard | Abbott | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |
44% | 42% | 13–15 Aug 2010 | 38% | 46% | |
43% | 41% | 30 Jul – 1 Aug 2010 | 40% | 46% | |
41% | 40% | 16–18 Jul 2010 | 29% | 51% | |
N/A (new) | 42% | Rudd | Abbott | ||
36% | 38% | 28–30 May 2010 | 54% | 49% | |
39% | 42% | 30 Apr – 2 May 2010 | 50% | 43% | |
50% | 46% | 26–28 Mar 2010 | 39% | 43% | |
48% | 47% | 26–28 Feb 2010 | 40% | 38% | |
50% | 44% | 29–31 Jan 2010 | 38% | 39% | |
52% | 40% | 4–6 Dec 2009 | 32% | N/A (new) | |
Rudd | Turnbull | ||||
56% | 36% | 13–15 Nov 2009 | 34% | 50% | |
59% | 32% | 16–18 Oct 2009 | 28% | 54% | |
67% | 33% | Polling conducted by Newspoll Newspoll Newspoll Market Research is an Australian company providing opinion polling and other market research services. Its chief executive is Martin O'Shannessy.Newspoll's surveys of voter opinion are published in The Australian.... and published in The Australian The Australian The Australian is a broadsheet newspaper published in Australia from Monday to Saturday each week since 14 July 1964. The editor in chief is Chris Mitchell, the editor is Clive Mathieson and the 'editor-at-large' is Paul Kelly.... . ^Remainder were "uncommitted". |
Roy Morgan
The Roy Morgan poll consists of two different sampling. There is a face to face interview and a phone interview to sample voting intention, which is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide.Political parties | Two-party-preferred | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | Lib | Nat | Grn | Oth | ALP | Lib/Nat | ||||
7–8 Aug 2010 | 43% | 33.5% | 3.5% | 15.5% | 2% | 57.5% | 42.5% | |||
31 July – 1 Aug 2010 | 44% | 39% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 53% | 47% | |||
24–25 July 2010 | 43.5% | 35% | 2% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 55.5% | 44.5% | |||
17–18 July 2010 | 44.5% | 35% | 4.5% | 10.5% | 4% | 56% | 44% | |||
Polling conducted by Roy Morgan. |
See also
- Australian federal election, 2010
- Australian federal election, 2007