Fertility-development controversy
Encyclopedia
The relationship between the total fertility rate
(TFR) and socio-economic development, which is measured by the human development index
(HDI), is the subject of debate in social sciences
.
The novelty of this new and on-going debate is to seek a statistically significant linkage between socio-economic development and total fertility rate, rather than to examine a more conventional relationship between fertility and per capita income level, as discussed in Demographic-economic paradox
.
More importantly, the debate has revolved around the fundamental question in the demographic transition
whether there could exist a so-called "Fertility J-curve" in which the fertility declines would rebound after a certain level (i.e., a threshold) of socio-economic development.
in social sciences has been that developed countries tend to have lower fertility rates while fertility rates in developing nations are high. This means that declining fertility rates are attributed to advances in socio-economic development.
proposed that there exists a "J-shaped" relationship between human fertility and development — i.e., that further advances in economic development can reverse the decline in fertility rate.
In an article published in Nature
, Myrskylä et al. pointed out that “unprecedented increases” in social and economic development in the 20th century had been accompanied by considerable declines in population growth rates and fertility. This negative association between human fertility and socio-economic development has been “one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences”. The researchers used cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses to examine the relationship between total fertility rate
(TFR) and the human development index
(HDI).
The main finding of the study was that, in highly developed countries with HDI above 0.9, further development halts the declining fertility rates. This means that the previously negative development-fertility association is reversed; the graph becomes J-shaped. Myrskylä et al. contend that there has occurred “a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century”.
More precisely, the empirical findings of Furuoka’s 2009 study indicate that in countries with a low human development index, higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates. Likewise, in countries with a high human development index, higher levels of HDI are associated with lower fertility rates, although the relationship is weaker. Furuoka's findings support the "conventional wisdom" that higher development is consistently correlated with lower overall fertility.
Total Fertility Rate
The total fertility rate of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates through her lifetime, and she...
(TFR) and socio-economic development, which is measured by the human development index
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index is a composite statistic used to rank countries by level of "human development" and separate "very high human development", "high human development", "medium human development", and "low human development" countries...
(HDI), is the subject of debate in social sciences
Social sciences
Social science is the field of study concerned with society. "Social science" is commonly used as an umbrella term to refer to a plurality of fields outside of the natural sciences usually exclusive of the administrative or managerial sciences...
.
The novelty of this new and on-going debate is to seek a statistically significant linkage between socio-economic development and total fertility rate, rather than to examine a more conventional relationship between fertility and per capita income level, as discussed in Demographic-economic paradox
Demographic-economic paradox
The demographic-economic paradox is the inverse correlation found between wealth and fertility within and between nations. The higher the degree of education and GDP per capita of a human population, subpopulation or social stratum, the fewer children are born in any industrialized country...
.
More importantly, the debate has revolved around the fundamental question in the demographic transition
Demographic transition
The demographic transition model is the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by the American...
whether there could exist a so-called "Fertility J-curve" in which the fertility declines would rebound after a certain level (i.e., a threshold) of socio-economic development.
Preview
Conventional wisdomConventional wisdom
Conventional wisdom is a term used to describe ideas or explanations that are generally accepted as true by the public or by experts in a field. Such ideas or explanations, though widely held, are unexamined. Unqualified societal discourse preserves the status quo. It codifies existing social...
in social sciences has been that developed countries tend to have lower fertility rates while fertility rates in developing nations are high. This means that declining fertility rates are attributed to advances in socio-economic development.
Fertility J-curve
In 2009, a group headed by Mikko Myrskylä of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research
The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research is located in Rostock, Germany. It was founded in 1996 and moved into new buildings in Rostock in 2002. It is one of approximately 80 institutes of the Max Planck Society....
proposed that there exists a "J-shaped" relationship between human fertility and development — i.e., that further advances in economic development can reverse the decline in fertility rate.
In an article published in Nature
Nature (journal)
Nature, first published on 4 November 1869, is ranked the world's most cited interdisciplinary scientific journal by the Science Edition of the 2010 Journal Citation Reports...
, Myrskylä et al. pointed out that “unprecedented increases” in social and economic development in the 20th century had been accompanied by considerable declines in population growth rates and fertility. This negative association between human fertility and socio-economic development has been “one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences”. The researchers used cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses to examine the relationship between total fertility rate
Total Fertility Rate
The total fertility rate of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates through her lifetime, and she...
(TFR) and the human development index
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index is a composite statistic used to rank countries by level of "human development" and separate "very high human development", "high human development", "medium human development", and "low human development" countries...
(HDI).
The main finding of the study was that, in highly developed countries with HDI above 0.9, further development halts the declining fertility rates. This means that the previously negative development-fertility association is reversed; the graph becomes J-shaped. Myrskylä et al. contend that there has occurred “a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century”.
Critique
Some researchers doubt J-shaped relationship fertility and socio-economic development (Luci and Thevenon, 2010; Furuoka, 2009). For example, Fumitaka Furuoka (2009) employed a piecewise regression analysis to examine the relationship between total fertility rate and human development index. However, he found no empirical evidence to support the proposition that advances in development are able to reverse declining fertility rates.More precisely, the empirical findings of Furuoka’s 2009 study indicate that in countries with a low human development index, higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates. Likewise, in countries with a high human development index, higher levels of HDI are associated with lower fertility rates, although the relationship is weaker. Furuoka's findings support the "conventional wisdom" that higher development is consistently correlated with lower overall fertility.
See also
- Fertility and intelligenceFertility and intelligenceFertility and intelligence research investigates the relationship between fertility and intelligence. Demographic studies have indicated that in humans, fertility and intelligence tend to be inversely correlated, that is to say, the more intelligent, as measured by IQ tests, exhibit a lower total...
- Human development theoryHuman development theoryHuman development theory is a theory that merges older ideas from ecological economics, sustainable development, welfare economics, and feminist economics. It seeks to avoid the overt normative politics of most so-called "green economics" by justifying its theses strictly in ecology, economics and...
- Welfare stateWelfare stateA welfare state is a "concept of government in which the state plays a key role in the protection and promotion of the economic and social well-being of its citizens. It is based on the principles of equality of opportunity, equitable distribution of wealth, and public responsibility for those...
- Demographic-economic paradoxDemographic-economic paradoxThe demographic-economic paradox is the inverse correlation found between wealth and fertility within and between nations. The higher the degree of education and GDP per capita of a human population, subpopulation or social stratum, the fewer children are born in any industrialized country...
. - total fertility rateTotal Fertility RateThe total fertility rate of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates through her lifetime, and she...
- human development indexHuman Development IndexThe Human Development Index is a composite statistic used to rank countries by level of "human development" and separate "very high human development", "high human development", "medium human development", and "low human development" countries...
External links
- "The best of all possible worlds?", from The EconomistThe EconomistThe Economist is an English-language weekly news and international affairs publication owned by The Economist Newspaper Ltd. and edited in offices in the City of Westminster, London, England. Continuous publication began under founder James Wilson in September 1843...