Ex-Cubs Factor
Encyclopedia
The Ex-Cub Factor is a seemingly spurious correlation that is essentially a corollary to the Curse of the Billy Goat
. Widely published in 1990, the hypothesis asserts that since the last appearance by the Chicago Cubs
in the 1945 World Series
, any baseball
team headed into the World Series with three or more former Cubs on its roster has "a critical mass of Cubness" and a strong likelihood of failure.
, and annually in numerous newspapers and magazines thereafter. Chicago Tribune
columnist and fellow Cubs fan Mike Royko
, interviewed him just prior to the 1990 World Series
, and wrote (seemingly in jest) that the heavily-favored Oakland Athletics
were "doomed" to lose the Series to the Cincinnati Reds
. When that prediction came true in stunning fashion (the Reds won in a four game sweep), Royko repeated the story (seemingly a little stunned himself), and in subsequent years interviewed Berler just before every post-season series in which it was relevant, its apparent accuracy repeatedly being borne out.
Since 1946, the theory had remained intact. Its only exception had been the 1960
Pittsburgh Pirates
, who had defeated the New York Yankees
in a sudden-victory finish in Game 7
. At that time, the Ex-Cubs Factor theory was unknown.
, the theory was well-known among baseball fans. After the Arizona Diamondbacks
won the first two games at home, the New York Yankees
won the next three at Yankee Stadium
in dramatic fashion. That momentum shift, along with the sympathy many fans felt for New York City
following the September 11 attacks, topped off by the three ex-Cubs on the Arizona roster, seemed to stack up against the D-backs. But Arizona won Game 6 in a lopsided score, and then won Game 7 in a come-from-behind finish, scoring a pair of runs in the ninth inning to win the Series. In fact, two of the three former Cubs (the third being Mike Morgan
) played prominent roles in that ninth inning, Mark Grace getting a leadoff single and Luis Gonzalez
driving in the winning run with a single.
The Arizona victory seemingly broke this "curse", and it has generated rather less interest since then. It is perhaps noteworthy, though, that both the Pirates of and the Diamondbacks of fell into serious slumps in the years following their victories, as if suffering some consequence for having defied this "curse".
In a curious parallel, the "inside baseball" technique that defeated the Yankees and their star relief pitcher Mariano Rivera
in Game 7 would be nearly repeated in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS
between the other "cursed" team, the Boston Red Sox
and their arch-rivals, the New York Yankees
. That inning was the start of turning that series around, and ultimately ending the Curse of the Bambino
. It also turns out that the 2004 Yankees had five former Cubs on their roster, theoretically an unusual quantity of "Cubness". However, the "curse" speaks only to the World Series and is silent on other rounds of playoffs.
found an unusual twist to the ex-Cubs scenario, as both teams had three ex-Cubs who were on the two teams rosters at some point during the year.
The Philadelphia Phillies
won the Series in 5 games, defeating the Tampa Bay Rays
without needing a walkoff hit, and with four ex-Cubs on their roster: Tom Gordon
, Matt Stairs
, Scott Eyre
, and Jamie Moyer
; along with coach Davey Lopes
, who had played for the Cubs late in his career.
However, the Tampa Bay Rays
also had three ex-Cubs that played on the team during the year: Mike DiFelice
, Cliff Floyd
and Jae Kuk Ryu; along with senior advisor Don Zimmer
. Rays' players Gary Glover
and Eric Hinske
also were once a part of the Cubs minor league organization, but the "curse" is silent on that detail. However, DiFelice was released on September 1, 2008 by the club and thus was not on the team's playoff roster.
Curse of the Billy Goat
The curse of the Billy Goat was supposedly placed on the Chicago Cubs in 1945 when Billy Goat Tavern owner Billy Sianis was asked to leave a World Series game against the Detroit Tigers at the Cubs' home ground of Wrigley Field because his pet goat's odor was bothering other fans...
. Widely published in 1990, the hypothesis asserts that since the last appearance by the Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs are a professional baseball team located in Chicago, Illinois. They are members of the Central Division of Major League Baseball's National League. They are one of two Major League clubs based in Chicago . The Cubs are also one of the two remaining charter members of the National...
in the 1945 World Series
1945 World Series
-Game 1:Wednesday, October 3, 1945 at Briggs Stadium in Detroit, Michigan-Game 2:Thursday, October 4, 1945 at Briggs Stadium in Detroit, Michigan-Game 3:Friday, October 5, 1945 at Briggs Stadium in Detroit, Michigan...
, any baseball
Baseball
Baseball is a bat-and-ball sport played between two teams of nine players each. The aim is to score runs by hitting a thrown ball with a bat and touching a series of four bases arranged at the corners of a ninety-foot diamond...
team headed into the World Series with three or more former Cubs on its roster has "a critical mass of Cubness" and a strong likelihood of failure.
Berler hypothesis
The theory was developed in 1981 by Ron Berler, a freelance journalist and Cubs fan. His initial article describing the Ex-Cub Factor ran in 17 major newspapers prior to the 1981 World Series1981 World Series
The 1981 World Series matched the New York Yankees against the Los Angeles Dodgers, marking their third meeting in the Series in five years as well as a record eleventh Series meeting overall and last Series meeting to date...
, and annually in numerous newspapers and magazines thereafter. Chicago Tribune
Chicago Tribune
The Chicago Tribune is a major daily newspaper based in Chicago, Illinois, and the flagship publication of the Tribune Company. Formerly self-styled as the "World's Greatest Newspaper" , it remains the most read daily newspaper of the Chicago metropolitan area and the Great Lakes region and is...
columnist and fellow Cubs fan Mike Royko
Mike Royko
Michael "Mike" Royko was a newspaper columnist in Chicago, who won the 1972 Pulitzer Prize for commentary...
, interviewed him just prior to the 1990 World Series
1990 World Series
- Game 1 :Tuesday, October 16, 1990 at Riverfront Stadium in Cincinnati, OhioUntil , this was the last World Series to be scheduled to begin play on a Tuesday, and the first since . The schedule called for the seven-game series to be held Tue–Wed, Fri–Sat–Sun, Tue–Wed. Games 5, 6, and 7, however...
, and wrote (seemingly in jest) that the heavily-favored Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics are a Major League Baseball team based in Oakland, California. The Athletics are a member of the Western Division of Major League Baseball's American League. From to the present, the Athletics have played in the O.co Coliseum....
were "doomed" to lose the Series to the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds are a Major League Baseball team based in Cincinnati, Ohio. They are members of the National League Central Division. The club was established in 1882 as a charter member of the American Association and joined the National League in 1890....
. When that prediction came true in stunning fashion (the Reds won in a four game sweep), Royko repeated the story (seemingly a little stunned himself), and in subsequent years interviewed Berler just before every post-season series in which it was relevant, its apparent accuracy repeatedly being borne out.
Since 1946, the theory had remained intact. Its only exception had been the 1960
1960 in baseball
-Major League Baseball:*World Series: Pittsburgh Pirates over New York Yankees ; Bobby Richardson, MVP*All-Star Game , July 11 at Municipal Stadium: National League, 5-3*All-Star Game , July 13 at Yankee Stadium: National League, 6-0...
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a Major League Baseball club based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. They play in the Central Division of the National League, and are five-time World Series Champions...
, who had defeated the New York Yankees
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees are a professional baseball team based in the The Bronx, New York. They compete in Major League Baseball in the American League's East Division...
in a sudden-victory finish in Game 7
1960 World Series
The 1960 World Series was played between the Pittsburgh Pirates of the National League and the New York Yankees of the American League from October 5 to October 13, 1960...
. At that time, the Ex-Cubs Factor theory was unknown.
2001 refutation
By the time of the 2001 World Series2001 World Series
-Game 1:Saturday, October 27, 2001 at Bank One Ballpark in Phoenix, ArizonaArizona showed no fear and chased Yankees starter Mike Mussina after just three innings. The Yankees gave up five unearned runs and the Diamondbacks rode Curt Schilling's seven strong innings to a 9–1 rout...
, the theory was well-known among baseball fans. After the Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks are a professional baseball team based in Phoenix. They play in the West Division of Major League Baseball's National League. From 1998 to the present, they have played in Chase Field...
won the first two games at home, the New York Yankees
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees are a professional baseball team based in the The Bronx, New York. They compete in Major League Baseball in the American League's East Division...
won the next three at Yankee Stadium
Yankee Stadium
Yankee Stadium was a stadium located in The Bronx in New York City, New York. It was the home ballpark of the New York Yankees from 1923 to 1973 and from 1976 to 2008. The stadium hosted 6,581 Yankees regular season home games during its 85-year history. It was also the former home of the New York...
in dramatic fashion. That momentum shift, along with the sympathy many fans felt for New York City
New York City
New York is the most populous city in the United States and the center of the New York Metropolitan Area, one of the most populous metropolitan areas in the world. New York exerts a significant impact upon global commerce, finance, media, art, fashion, research, technology, education, and...
following the September 11 attacks, topped off by the three ex-Cubs on the Arizona roster, seemed to stack up against the D-backs. But Arizona won Game 6 in a lopsided score, and then won Game 7 in a come-from-behind finish, scoring a pair of runs in the ninth inning to win the Series. In fact, two of the three former Cubs (the third being Mike Morgan
Mike Morgan
Michael Thomas Morgan is a former right-handed pitcher in Major League Baseball. He competed for twelve different teams over 25 years, and is one of only 29 players in baseball history to date to have played Major League baseball over four decades...
) played prominent roles in that ninth inning, Mark Grace getting a leadoff single and Luis Gonzalez
Luis Gonzalez (baseball outfielder)
Luis Emilio Gonzalez , nicknamed "Gonzo", is a retired Major League Baseball outfielder. A Cuban-American, Gonzalez spent his best years with the Arizona Diamondbacks and was one of the most popular players in that organization's history...
driving in the winning run with a single.
The Arizona victory seemingly broke this "curse", and it has generated rather less interest since then. It is perhaps noteworthy, though, that both the Pirates of and the Diamondbacks of fell into serious slumps in the years following their victories, as if suffering some consequence for having defied this "curse".
The "Cure"
The Pirates and the Diamondbacks both had in common in their World Series victories that they had home field advantage, played the Yankees, and both won it in Game 7 in the bottom of the 9th inning (otherwise known as a walkoff). So apparently this is the only way to defy this curse.In a curious parallel, the "inside baseball" technique that defeated the Yankees and their star relief pitcher Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera
Mariano Rivera is a Panamanian right-handed baseball pitcher who has played 17 years in Major League Baseball for the New York Yankees. Nicknamed "Mo", Rivera has served as a relief pitcher for most of his career, and since 1997, he has been the Yankees' closer...
in Game 7 would be nearly repeated in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS
2004 American League Championship Series
The 2004 American League Championship Series was the Major League Baseball playoff series to decide the American League champion for the 2004 season. It was played between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, at Fenway Park and the original Yankee Stadium, from October 12 to October 20, 2004...
between the other "cursed" team, the Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are a professional baseball team based in Boston, Massachusetts, and a member of Major League Baseball’s American League Eastern Division. Founded in as one of the American League's eight charter franchises, the Red Sox's home ballpark has been Fenway Park since . The "Red Sox"...
and their arch-rivals, the New York Yankees
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees are a professional baseball team based in the The Bronx, New York. They compete in Major League Baseball in the American League's East Division...
. That inning was the start of turning that series around, and ultimately ending the Curse of the Bambino
Curse of the Bambino
The Curse of the Bambino was a superstition cited as a reason for the failure of the Boston Red Sox baseball team to win the World Series in the 86-year period from 1918 to 2004...
. It also turns out that the 2004 Yankees had five former Cubs on their roster, theoretically an unusual quantity of "Cubness". However, the "curse" speaks only to the World Series and is silent on other rounds of playoffs.
The final nail?
The 2008 World Series2008 World Series
The 2008 World Series was the 104th World Series between the American and National Leagues for the championship of Major League Baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies as champions of the National League and the Tampa Bay Rays, as American League champions, competed to win four games out of a possible...
found an unusual twist to the ex-Cubs scenario, as both teams had three ex-Cubs who were on the two teams rosters at some point during the year.
The Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies are a Major League Baseball team. They are the oldest continuous, one-name, one-city franchise in all of professional American sports, dating to 1883. The Phillies are a member of the Eastern Division of Major League Baseball's National League...
won the Series in 5 games, defeating the Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays are a Major League Baseball team based in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Rays are a member of the Eastern Division of MLB's American League. Since their inception in , the club has played at Tropicana Field...
without needing a walkoff hit, and with four ex-Cubs on their roster: Tom Gordon
Tom Gordon
Thomas Gordon , nicknamed "Flash", is a former Major League Baseball right-handed pitcher. He played with the Kansas City Royals , Boston Red Sox , Chicago Cubs , Houston Astros , Chicago White Sox , New York Yankees , Philadelphia Phillies and the...
, Matt Stairs
Matt Stairs
Matthew Wade Stairs is a former Canadian professional Major League baseball outfielder, first baseman, designated hitter, and pinch hitter. He played for 12 different teams, a major league record he shares with Octavio Dotel, Mike Morgan and Ron Villone...
, Scott Eyre
Scott Eyre
Scott Alan Eyre is a former left-handed pitcher in Major League Baseball.-Career:Eyre attended the College of Southern Idaho in Twin Falls, Idaho and was drafted by the Texas Rangers in the 9th round of the 1991 Major League Baseball Draft...
, and Jamie Moyer
Jamie Moyer
Jamie Moyer is an American professional left handed baseball pitcher who is currently a free agent. At the time of his last game to date , he was the oldest player in the major leagues and had the most wins, losses, and strikeouts of any active Major League pitcher...
; along with coach Davey Lopes
Davey Lopes
David Earle Lopes is a former second baseman and manager in Major League Baseball. He batted and threw right-handed. He is currently the first base coach for the Los Angeles Dodgers.He is of Cape Verdean descent.-Playing:...
, who had played for the Cubs late in his career.
However, the Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays are a Major League Baseball team based in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Rays are a member of the Eastern Division of MLB's American League. Since their inception in , the club has played at Tropicana Field...
also had three ex-Cubs that played on the team during the year: Mike DiFelice
Mike DiFelice
Michael William DiFelice is a former Major League Baseball journeyman catcher and is currently the manager of the Rookie-level Kingsport Mets in the New York Mets organization. He is a graduate from the University of Tennessee, and was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 11th round of the...
, Cliff Floyd
Cliff Floyd
Cornelius Clifford Floyd, Jr. is a former Major League Baseball outfielder.-Early years:Floyd was born to parents Cornelius Clifford Floyd, Sr. and Olivia Floyd. After spending 13 years as an only child, Floyd was joined by brother Julius...
and Jae Kuk Ryu; along with senior advisor Don Zimmer
Don Zimmer
Donald William "Popeye" Zimmer is a former infielder, manager, and coach in Major League Baseball, currently serving as a senior advisor to the Tampa Bay Rays baseball organization...
. Rays' players Gary Glover
Gary Glover
John Gary Glover was a Major League Baseball pitcher who currently plays for the SK Wyverns of the Korean Baseball League...
and Eric Hinske
Eric Hinske
Eric Scott Hinske is a Major League Baseball outfielder, first baseman, and third baseman currently an Atlanta Braves organization...
also were once a part of the Cubs minor league organization, but the "curse" is silent on that detail. However, DiFelice was released on September 1, 2008 by the club and thus was not on the team's playoff roster.
External links
- Mike Royko column examples including 1993 explanation of Ex-Cubs Factor
- www.cubness.com: The Curse of the Chicago Cubs
- Ex-Cubs Factor through the years