Estimate of the Situation
Encyclopedia
The Estimate of the Situation was a document supposedly written in 1948 by the personnel of United States Air Force
's Project Sign
-including the project’s director, Captain Robert R. Sneider - which explained their reasons for concluding that the extraterrestrial hypothesis
was the best explanation for unidentified flying object
s.
As late as 1960, U.S.A.F. personnel claimed that the document never existed. However, several Air Force officers, and one consultant, describe the report as being a real document that was suppressed. Jenny Randles
and Peter Hough describe the Estimate as the "Holy Grail
of ufology
" and note that Freedom of Information Act requests for the document have been fruitless. (Randles and Hough, 85)
writes that the highly-publicized Chiles-Whitted UFO Encounter
of July 24, 1948 "had a great impact at Sign" (Jacobs, 47). In that encounter, two experienced airline pilots claimed a torpedo-shaped object nearly collided with their commercial airplane. Sign personnel judged the report convincing and compelling, partly because the alleged object also closely matched the description of an independent sighting from The Hague
a few days earlier.
According to Michael D. Swords
, Sign personnel "intensely investigated" the Chiles-Whitted for several months. Despite the lack of physical evidence, some Sign personnel judged this and other UFO reports quite persuasive, and concluded that UFOs could have only a non-earthly source. Swords writes,
Given that there was no evidence that either the U.S. or the U.S.S.R. had anything remotely like the UFOs reported, Sign personnel gradually began considering extraterrestrial origins for the objects.
Swords argues that this consideration of non-earthly origin was "not as incredible in intelligence circles as one might think." Because many in the military were "pilots, engineers and technical people" they had a "'can do' attitude" and tended to regard unavailable technologies not as impossibilities, but as challenges to be overcome. Rather than dismissing UFO reports out of hand, they considered how such objects might function. This perspective, argues Swords, "contrasted markedly with many scientists' characterizations of such concepts as impossible, unthinkable or absurd
." (Swords, p93)
In late September or early October, 1948, the Estimate was approved by Colonels William Clingerman and Howard McCoy (Sneider's superiors), who then submitted it to the office of General Charles Cabell, the chief of Air Force intelligence.
According to Swords, The Pentagon
went into an "uproar" over the Estimate, which generated "intense" debate. Cabell was newly-appointed, and found himself in charge of a "split house:" some were sympathetic and intrigued, if not entirely convinced of the Estimate's accuracy, while others rejected the very idea of interplanetary saucers as impossible. Unsure of how to proceed, Cabell eventually submitted the Estimate to his superior, General Hoyt Vandenberg
, Chief-of-Staff of the U.S. Air Force.
In a letter dated November 3, 1948, Cabell wrote to Sign, via McCoy, describing flying saucers as real, but rejecting the interplanetary hypothesis and asking for another Estimate. Cabell wrote
McCoy responded in a somewhat defensive letter dated November 8, 1948. He noted that many of the UFO reports were misidentified everyday phenomena (see Identified flying object
), but also restated the rejected ideas of the Estimate without explicitly endorsing the interplanetary hypothesis; as Swords writes,"[Project Sign] just had their knuckles rapped, so they defended themselves." McCoy wrote,
in 1949. According to Ruppelt, "The estimate died a quick death. Some months later it was completely declassified and relegated to the incinerator. A few copies, one of which I saw, were kept as mementos of the golden days of the UFOs."
's 1956 book, The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects. He wrote:
Clark notes that "No copies of this near-legendary document have surfaced since."
Additionally, according to Clark, the Estimate’s existence was confirmed by U.S. Air Force Major Dewey J. Fournet, who as an Air Force major in the Pentagon served as liaison with official UFO project headquartered at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base
in Dayton, Ohio
." (Clark, 178) Fournet has been described as being "unimpressed" with the Estimate, and was furthermore quoted as describing the ET conclusion as an "extreme extrapolation" based on scant evidence.
An Air Force consultant, astronomer Dr. Allen Hynek, also verified the Estimate’s existence. (Hynek, 1973)
(Randle, 1989) said he spoke with an unnamed colonel who claimed to have helped write the Estimate when he was a lieutenant. According to the colonel, when Vandenberg was sent a working draft of the report, he allegedly ordered the paragraphs giving physical evidence (metal recovered in New Mexico) removed from the report. After doing so, Vandenberg then rejected the final version as lacking physical evidence. Randle claimed that he realized the significance of this anecdote only a few years later, while investigating the 1947 Roswell, New Mexico crash
. According to Randle, the colonel had died by that point, and a follow-up interview was not possible.
The McCoy letter of November 8, 1948, which mentioned that there was no physical evidence of extraterrestrial origins for flying saucers, has sometimes been cited as evidence against the Roswell UFO incident
of July, 1947, where a UFO allegedly crashed in the New Mexico desert. Swords argues, that the McCoy letter should not be interpreted this way, because the U.S. Military usually operates in a highly compartmentalized, need to know
basis. If something as extraordinary as an alien spacecraft had crashed in the summer of 1947, Swords contends that fact would have almost certainly been quickly suppressed, and that Sign would not necessarily have been informed of it.
United States Air Force
The United States Air Force is the aerial warfare service branch of the United States Armed Forces and one of the American uniformed services. Initially part of the United States Army, the USAF was formed as a separate branch of the military on September 18, 1947 under the National Security Act of...
's Project Sign
Project Sign
Project Sign was an official U.S. government study of unidentified flying objects undertaken by the United States Air Force and active for most of 1948....
-including the project’s director, Captain Robert R. Sneider - which explained their reasons for concluding that the extraterrestrial hypothesis
Extraterrestrial hypothesis
The extraterrestrial hypothesis is the hypothesis that some unidentified flying objects are best explained as being extraterrestrial life or non-human aliens from other planets occupying physical spacecraft visiting Earth.-Etymology:...
was the best explanation for unidentified flying object
Unidentified flying object
A term originally coined by the military, an unidentified flying object is an unusual apparent anomaly in the sky that is not readily identifiable to the observer as any known object...
s.
As late as 1960, U.S.A.F. personnel claimed that the document never existed. However, several Air Force officers, and one consultant, describe the report as being a real document that was suppressed. Jenny Randles
Jenny Randles
Jenny Randles is a British author and former director of investigations with the British UFO Research Association , serving in that role from 1982 through to 1994.-Career:Randles specializes in writing books on UFOs and paranormal phenomena...
and Peter Hough describe the Estimate as the "Holy Grail
Holy Grail
The Holy Grail is a sacred object figuring in literature and certain Christian traditions, most often identified with the dish, plate, or cup used by Jesus at the Last Supper and said to possess miraculous powers...
of ufology
Ufology
Ufology is a neologism coined to describe the collective efforts of those who study reports and associated evidence of unidentified flying objects . UFOs have been subject to various investigations over the years by governments, independent groups, and scientists...
" and note that Freedom of Information Act requests for the document have been fruitless. (Randles and Hough, 85)
Background
Project Sign was established in late 1947, and was charged with investigating "flying saucer" reports. In line with orders from high-ranking U.S.A.F officers, Sign's personnel operated on the principle that the subject should be taken seriously, on the grounds that UFOs may represent genuine aircraft whose origins are mysterious and possibly threatening to US security.Chiles-Whitted Encounter
Though Sign investigated earlier UFO reports, Historian David Michael JacobsDavid Michael Jacobs
David Michael Jacobs is an American historian and recently retired Associate Professor of History at Temple University, specializing in twentieth century American history and culture. He is well known in the field of Ufology for his research into alleged alien abductions and UFOs.-Career:Jacobs...
writes that the highly-publicized Chiles-Whitted UFO Encounter
Chiles-Whitted UFO Encounter
The Chiles-Whitted UFO Encounter occurred on July 24, 1948 when two American commercial pilots reported that their Douglas DC-3 had nearly collided with a strange torpedo shaped object flying near them....
of July 24, 1948 "had a great impact at Sign" (Jacobs, 47). In that encounter, two experienced airline pilots claimed a torpedo-shaped object nearly collided with their commercial airplane. Sign personnel judged the report convincing and compelling, partly because the alleged object also closely matched the description of an independent sighting from The Hague
The Hague
The Hague is the capital city of the province of South Holland in the Netherlands. With a population of 500,000 inhabitants , it is the third largest city of the Netherlands, after Amsterdam and Rotterdam...
a few days earlier.
According to Michael D. Swords
Michael D. Swords
Michael D. Swords is an American scientist.In 1962 Swords graduated from the University of Notre Dame with a B.S.. He studied biochemistry at Iowa State University , and at Case Western Reserve University Michael D. Swords is an American scientist.In 1962 Swords graduated from the University of...
, Sign personnel "intensely investigated" the Chiles-Whitted for several months. Despite the lack of physical evidence, some Sign personnel judged this and other UFO reports quite persuasive, and concluded that UFOs could have only a non-earthly source. Swords writes,
- "The project members reasoned that they had several dozen aerial observations that they could not explain, many of them by military pilots and scientists. The objects seemed to act like real technologyTechnologyTechnology is the making, usage, and knowledge of tools, machines, techniques, crafts, systems or methods of organization in order to solve a problem or perform a specific function. It can also refer to the collection of such tools, machinery, and procedures. The word technology comes ;...
, but their sources said they were not ours. The flying fuselage encounter [Chiles-Whitted] intrigued them. The Prandtl theory of liftLift (force)A fluid flowing past the surface of a body exerts a surface force on it. Lift is the component of this force that is perpendicular to the oncoming flow direction. It contrasts with the drag force, which is the component of the surface force parallel to the flow direction...
indicated that such an odd shape can fly, but it would need some form of power plant advanced well beyond what we could build (e.g., nuclear)." (Swords, p.93; emphasis in original)
Given that there was no evidence that either the U.S. or the U.S.S.R. had anything remotely like the UFOs reported, Sign personnel gradually began considering extraterrestrial origins for the objects.
Swords argues that this consideration of non-earthly origin was "not as incredible in intelligence circles as one might think." Because many in the military were "pilots, engineers and technical people" they had a "'can do' attitude" and tended to regard unavailable technologies not as impossibilities, but as challenges to be overcome. Rather than dismissing UFO reports out of hand, they considered how such objects might function. This perspective, argues Swords, "contrasted markedly with many scientists' characterizations of such concepts as impossible, unthinkable or absurd
Absurd
Absurd or The Absurd may refer to:* Absurdity, general and technical usage - associated with extremely poor reasoning, the ridiculous, or nonsense....
." (Swords, p93)
The writing, submission and evaluation of the Estimate
According to Swords, the Estimate was probably completed in September 1948. The Estimate also argued that UFO reports might closely coincide with the approach of the planets Mercury, Venus or Mars to Earth, that the UFOs might be using the planets as launching bases, and predicted a wave of UFO reports in mid-October.In late September or early October, 1948, the Estimate was approved by Colonels William Clingerman and Howard McCoy (Sneider's superiors), who then submitted it to the office of General Charles Cabell, the chief of Air Force intelligence.
According to Swords, The Pentagon
The Pentagon
The Pentagon is the headquarters of the United States Department of Defense, located in Arlington County, Virginia. As a symbol of the U.S. military, "the Pentagon" is often used metonymically to refer to the Department of Defense rather than the building itself.Designed by the American architect...
went into an "uproar" over the Estimate, which generated "intense" debate. Cabell was newly-appointed, and found himself in charge of a "split house:" some were sympathetic and intrigued, if not entirely convinced of the Estimate's accuracy, while others rejected the very idea of interplanetary saucers as impossible. Unsure of how to proceed, Cabell eventually submitted the Estimate to his superior, General Hoyt Vandenberg
Hoyt Vandenberg
Hoyt Sanford Vandenberg was a U.S. Air Force general, its second Chief of Staff, and second Director of Central Intelligence....
, Chief-of-Staff of the U.S. Air Force.
Rejection of the Estimate
According to Ruppelt, the Estimate was rejected by Vandenberg primarily due to lack of supporting physical evidence, and was "batted back down" the chain of command.In a letter dated November 3, 1948, Cabell wrote to Sign, via McCoy, describing flying saucers as real, but rejecting the interplanetary hypothesis and asking for another Estimate. Cabell wrote
- The conclusion appears inescapable that some type of flying object has been observed. Identification and the origin of these objects is not discernible to this Headquarters. It is imperative, therefore, that efforts to determine whether these objects are of domestic or foreign origin must be increased until conclusive evidence is obtained. The needs of national defense require such evidence in order that appropriate countermeasures may be taken.
McCoy responded in a somewhat defensive letter dated November 8, 1948. He noted that many of the UFO reports were misidentified everyday phenomena (see Identified flying object
Identified flying object
Identifying Unidentified Flying Objects is a difficult task due to the normally poor quality of the evidence provided by those who report sighting the objects. Nevertheless, most officially investigated UFO sightings, such as from the U.S...
), but also restated the rejected ideas of the Estimate without explicitly endorsing the interplanetary hypothesis; as Swords writes,"[Project Sign] just had their knuckles rapped, so they defended themselves." McCoy wrote,
- ...there remains a certain number of reports for which no reasonable everyday explanation is available. So far, no physical evidence of the existence of the unidentified sightings has been obtained...
- The possibility that the reported objects are vehicles from another planet has not been ignored. However, tangible evidence to support conclusions about such a possibility are completely lacking...
Aftermath
When Sign personnel refused to abandon the interplanetary hypothesis, many were reassigned, and Sign was renamed Project GrudgeProject Grudge
Project Grudge was a short-lived project by the U.S. Air Force to investigate unidentified flying objects . Grudge succeeded Project Sign in February, 1949, and was then followed by Project Blue Book. The project formally ended in December 1949, but actually continued on in a very minimal capacity...
in 1949. According to Ruppelt, "The estimate died a quick death. Some months later it was completely declassified and relegated to the incinerator. A few copies, one of which I saw, were kept as mementos of the golden days of the UFOs."
Publicity
The first public report of the Estimate was in Captain Edward J. RuppeltEdward J. Ruppelt
Edward J. Ruppelt was a United States Air Force officer probably best-known for his involvement in Project Blue Book, a formal governmental study of unidentified flying objects...
's 1956 book, The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects. He wrote:
- In intelligence, if you have something to say about some vital problem you write a report that is known as an "Estimate of the Situation." A few days after the DC-3 was buzzed [the Chiles-Whitted UFO report], the people at ATIC decided that the time had arrived to make an Estimate of the Situation. The situation was the UFOs; the estimate was that they were interplanetary!
- It was a rather thick document with a black cover and it was printed on legal sized paper. Stamped across the front were the words TOP SECRETTop SecretTop Secret generally refers to the highest acknowledged level of classified information.Top Secret may also refer to:- Film and television :* Top Secret , a British comedy directed by Mario Zampi...
.
- It contained the Air Force's analysis of many of the [UFO] incidents I have told you about plus many similar ones. All of them had come from scientists, pilots, and other equally credible observers, and each one was an unknown ...
- ... When the estimate was completed, typed, and approved, it started up through channels to higher command echelons. It drew considerable comment but no one stopped it on its way up.
Clark notes that "No copies of this near-legendary document have surfaced since."
Denial of the Estimate’s existence
Ruppelt's 1956 book, which first publicly disclosed the Estimate, was cleared by the Air Force. Clark writes (Clark, 1998), that as late as 1960, Air Force officials denied that the Estimate was real, despite the fact that censors had approved Ruppelt's book a few years before. According to Clark (Clark, 1998), the U.S. Air Force later formally admitted the Estimate was real, but Clark's bibliography does not make clear what statement or document confirmed the Estimate's reality.Additionally, according to Clark, the Estimate’s existence was confirmed by U.S. Air Force Major Dewey J. Fournet, who as an Air Force major in the Pentagon served as liaison with official UFO project headquartered at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base is a United States Air Force base in Greene and Montgomery counties in the state of Ohio. It includes both Wright and Patterson Fields, which were originally Wilbur Wright Field and Fairfield Aviation General Supply Depot. Patterson Field is located approximately...
in Dayton, Ohio
Dayton, Ohio
Dayton is the 6th largest city in the U.S. state of Ohio and the county seat of Montgomery County, the fifth most populous county in the state. The population was 141,527 at the 2010 census. The Dayton Metropolitan Statistical Area had a population of 841,502 in the 2010 census...
." (Clark, 178) Fournet has been described as being "unimpressed" with the Estimate, and was furthermore quoted as describing the ET conclusion as an "extreme extrapolation" based on scant evidence.
An Air Force consultant, astronomer Dr. Allen Hynek, also verified the Estimate’s existence. (Hynek, 1973)
The Roswell UFO Crash
In the early 1980s, researcher Kevin D. RandleKevin D. Randle
Dr. Kevin D. Randle , is a prominent ufologist. Within the UFO community he is often regarded as one of the preeminent experts on the reported crash of a UFO near Roswell, New Mexico in July 1947....
(Randle, 1989) said he spoke with an unnamed colonel who claimed to have helped write the Estimate when he was a lieutenant. According to the colonel, when Vandenberg was sent a working draft of the report, he allegedly ordered the paragraphs giving physical evidence (metal recovered in New Mexico) removed from the report. After doing so, Vandenberg then rejected the final version as lacking physical evidence. Randle claimed that he realized the significance of this anecdote only a few years later, while investigating the 1947 Roswell, New Mexico crash
Roswell UFO incident
The Roswell UFO Incident was the recovery of an object that crashed in the general vicinity of Roswell, New Mexico, in June or July 1947, allegedly an extra-terrestrial spacecraft and its alien occupants. Since the late 1970s the incident has been the subject of intense controversy and of...
. According to Randle, the colonel had died by that point, and a follow-up interview was not possible.
The McCoy letter of November 8, 1948, which mentioned that there was no physical evidence of extraterrestrial origins for flying saucers, has sometimes been cited as evidence against the Roswell UFO incident
Roswell UFO incident
The Roswell UFO Incident was the recovery of an object that crashed in the general vicinity of Roswell, New Mexico, in June or July 1947, allegedly an extra-terrestrial spacecraft and its alien occupants. Since the late 1970s the incident has been the subject of intense controversy and of...
of July, 1947, where a UFO allegedly crashed in the New Mexico desert. Swords argues, that the McCoy letter should not be interpreted this way, because the U.S. Military usually operates in a highly compartmentalized, need to know
Need to know
The term "need to know", when used by government and other organizations , describes the restriction of data which is considered very sensitive...
basis. If something as extraordinary as an alien spacecraft had crashed in the summer of 1947, Swords contends that fact would have almost certainly been quickly suppressed, and that Sign would not necessarily have been informed of it.