Doomer
Encyclopedia
A Doomer is one who has peak oil
related concerns that price shocks spawned by oil depletion
will contribute to a severe economic recession or another Great Depression
). Doomers attribute their beliefs to humanity's over reliance on petroleum for agricultural and industrial productivity. Many doomers are also survivalists. By contrast a "Peakist" would be one who has a lighter view on the implications of peak oil, although this label has been dismissed from within the movement as vacuous.
will collapse at the end of cheap oil. According to Doomers, humanity will be in a state of overshoot
after oil depletion makes modern farming methods economically unviable. Various academics have calculated that our numbers would then far exceed the carrying capacity
of the earth. For example: they believe our situation is comparable to bacteria in a petri dish
with cheap oil as the human growth medium
. As the “growth medium” is consumed and runs out the “bacteria” dies off.
Doomers also hold a wide range of theories about the collapse of complex societies and systems. The influences of Thomas Malthus
and the Club of Rome
are present in the doomer movement, as are some of the more recent works by Joseph Tainter
who wrote The Collapse of Complex Societies in 1988, and Richard C. Duncan
who presented his Phd The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge in 1989 (now known as the Olduvai theory
.) The lectures and DVD by Albert Bartlett
, Arithmetic, Population and Energy is also highly influential. (See below for online video streaming of the lecture he has been presenting and refining for over 30 years.)
The common concerns are that of overpopulation leading to resource and energy depletion, soil degradation and environmental destruction all culminating in agricultural collapse and famine. Some Doomers estimate that the anarchic collapse will be so catastrophic that population levels may fall below the levels prior to the industrial revolution — possibly below 2 billion. When trying to calculate the extent of the postulated dieoff, the most extreme doomer will also take into account that the existing eco-infrastructure is massively supported by oil based fertilizers and that we will not only hit peak oil but peak phosphate and peak nitrogen simultaneously. When oil production starts to decline the productivity of the soil will drop far below that of pre-industrial times and thus a drop down to 2 billion is optimistic. This kind of doomer will also ignore technology and dismiss it with commonly believed ideas such as "wind farms cost more energy to build than they get out". This common refrain is generally applied to all technology solutions since it is assumed a priori that a population crash is inevitable.
village. This Survivalist mindset is what distinguishes the Doomer from the Peakist. The Peakist may spend many hours campaigning for peak oil awareness, societal change and changes in government policy, while Doomers would generally see this as a waste of valuable time. The Doomer focus is more on preparing the family and local community for the imminent collapse of civilization.
This tension between optimism and pessimism is appreciated by author Richard Heinberg
in his book, Powerdown, who argues that local communities should immediately learn how to provide for their own power, water, and food security, while also campaigning for awareness on a State, Federal, and International level. Richard Heinberg admits that the ideal situation would be for the United Nations and Federal Governments to step in and institute a massive "war-time economy" shifting the industrial world from oil dependency. However he argues that there is the strong possibility that societal awareness is all too little too late to prevent "dieoff". As the future is so uncertain, Heinberg argues that the wisest course of action for the local community is to prepare for the implosion of modern infrastructure while also campaigning to prevent this disaster.
The more convinced Doomer would typically find the movie The End of Suburbia as unrealistic. While the last 15 minutes of The End of Suburbia focuses on the local community solutions of New Urbanism
, the Doomer would argue that the movie fails to describe the inevitable Malthusian catastrophe. The Doomer protests that The End of Suburbia implies suburban sprawl will experience an orderly transition into New Urbanism. The convinced Doomer rejects this outright as an impossibility due to civil unrest.
Peak oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, projected reserves and the combined production rate of a field...
related concerns that price shocks spawned by oil depletion
Oil depletion
Oil depletion occurs in the second half of the production curve of an oil well, oil field, or the average of total world oil production. The Hubbert peak theory makes predictions of production rates based on prior discovery rates and anticipated production rates. Hubbert curves predict that the...
will contribute to a severe economic recession or another Great Depression
Great Depression
The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in about 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s or early 1940s...
). Doomers attribute their beliefs to humanity's over reliance on petroleum for agricultural and industrial productivity. Many doomers are also survivalists. By contrast a "Peakist" would be one who has a lighter view on the implications of peak oil, although this label has been dismissed from within the movement as vacuous.
Common themes
A convinced Doomer believes that the Green RevolutionGreen Revolution
Green Revolution refers to a series of research, development, and technology transfer initiatives, occurring between the 1940s and the late 1970s, that increased agriculture production around the world, beginning most markedly in the late 1960s....
will collapse at the end of cheap oil. According to Doomers, humanity will be in a state of overshoot
Overshoot (ecology)
In ecology, overshoot occurs when a population exceeds the long term carrying capacity of its environment. The consequence of overshoot is called a crash or die-off. An attempt to apply this concept to human experience is Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change, by William R....
after oil depletion makes modern farming methods economically unviable. Various academics have calculated that our numbers would then far exceed the carrying capacity
Carrying capacity
The carrying capacity of a biological species in an environment is the maximum population size of the species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment...
of the earth. For example: they believe our situation is comparable to bacteria in a petri dish
Petri dish
A Petri dish is a shallow glass or plastic cylindrical lidded dish that biologists use to culture cells or small moss plants. It was named after German bacteriologist Julius Richard Petri, who invented it when working as an assistant to Robert Koch...
with cheap oil as the human growth medium
Growth medium
A growth medium or culture medium is a liquid or gel designed to support the growth of microorganisms or cells, or small plants like the moss Physcomitrella patens.There are different types of media for growing different types of cells....
. As the “growth medium” is consumed and runs out the “bacteria” dies off.
Doomers also hold a wide range of theories about the collapse of complex societies and systems. The influences of Thomas Malthus
Thomas Malthus
The Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus FRS was an English scholar, influential in political economy and demography. Malthus popularized the economic theory of rent....
and the Club of Rome
Club of Rome
The Club of Rome is a global think tank that deals with a variety of international political issues. Founded in 1968 at Accademia dei Lincei in Rome, Italy, the CoR describes itself as "a group of world citizens, sharing a common concern for the future of humanity." It consists of current and...
are present in the doomer movement, as are some of the more recent works by Joseph Tainter
Joseph Tainter
Joseph A. Tainter is a U.S. anthropologist and historian.Tainter studied anthropology at the University of California and Northwestern University, where he received his Ph.D. in 1975. He is currently a professor in the Department of Environment and Society at Utah State University...
who wrote The Collapse of Complex Societies in 1988, and Richard C. Duncan
Richard C. Duncan
Richard Duncan is chief author of the Olduvai theory, a prediction of rapidly declining world energy production. He has an MS in Electrical Engineering and a PhD in Systems Engineering from the University of Washington. He has taught engineering, worked for Lear Jet and Boeing, and worked in...
who presented his Phd The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge in 1989 (now known as the Olduvai theory
Olduvai theory
The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilization will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years . The theory provides a quantitative basis of the transient-pulse theory of modern civilization...
.) The lectures and DVD by Albert Bartlett
Albert Bartlett
Albert Allen Bartlett is an emeritus Professor of Physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder, USA. Professor Bartlett has lectured over 1,600 times since September, 1969 on Arithmetic, Population, and Energy...
, Arithmetic, Population and Energy is also highly influential. (See below for online video streaming of the lecture he has been presenting and refining for over 30 years.)
The common concerns are that of overpopulation leading to resource and energy depletion, soil degradation and environmental destruction all culminating in agricultural collapse and famine. Some Doomers estimate that the anarchic collapse will be so catastrophic that population levels may fall below the levels prior to the industrial revolution — possibly below 2 billion. When trying to calculate the extent of the postulated dieoff, the most extreme doomer will also take into account that the existing eco-infrastructure is massively supported by oil based fertilizers and that we will not only hit peak oil but peak phosphate and peak nitrogen simultaneously. When oil production starts to decline the productivity of the soil will drop far below that of pre-industrial times and thus a drop down to 2 billion is optimistic. This kind of doomer will also ignore technology and dismiss it with commonly believed ideas such as "wind farms cost more energy to build than they get out". This common refrain is generally applied to all technology solutions since it is assumed a priori that a population crash is inevitable.
Survivalist mindset
The typical Doomer response to peak oil and the collapse of the industrial system is to “ignore civilization to death” by setting up a PermaculturePermaculture
Permaculture is an approach to designing human settlements and agricultural systems that is modeled on the relationships found in nature. It is based on the ecology of how things interrelate rather than on the strictly biological concerns that form the foundation of modern agriculture...
village. This Survivalist mindset is what distinguishes the Doomer from the Peakist. The Peakist may spend many hours campaigning for peak oil awareness, societal change and changes in government policy, while Doomers would generally see this as a waste of valuable time. The Doomer focus is more on preparing the family and local community for the imminent collapse of civilization.
Influence of Doomers in peak oil
A purist Doomer concentrates on their "Lifeboat" survivalist permaculture farm. If the purist Doomer raises awareness at all, it is to selectively encourage necessary tradespeople to join their eco-village, sharing their vital skills with their village to add to their security. Some Doomers call for making active Survivalist preparations to be ready to survive a protracted societal collapse.This tension between optimism and pessimism is appreciated by author Richard Heinberg
Richard Heinberg
Richard Heinberg is an American journalist and educator who has written extensively on energy, economic, and ecological issues, including oil depletion. He is the author of ten books...
in his book, Powerdown, who argues that local communities should immediately learn how to provide for their own power, water, and food security, while also campaigning for awareness on a State, Federal, and International level. Richard Heinberg admits that the ideal situation would be for the United Nations and Federal Governments to step in and institute a massive "war-time economy" shifting the industrial world from oil dependency. However he argues that there is the strong possibility that societal awareness is all too little too late to prevent "dieoff". As the future is so uncertain, Heinberg argues that the wisest course of action for the local community is to prepare for the implosion of modern infrastructure while also campaigning to prevent this disaster.
The more convinced Doomer would typically find the movie The End of Suburbia as unrealistic. While the last 15 minutes of The End of Suburbia focuses on the local community solutions of New Urbanism
New urbanism
New Urbanism is an urban design movement, which promotes walkable neighborhoods that contain a range of housing and job types. It arose in the United States in the early 1980s, and has gradually continued to reform many aspects of real estate development, urban planning, and municipal land-use...
, the Doomer would argue that the movie fails to describe the inevitable Malthusian catastrophe. The Doomer protests that The End of Suburbia implies suburban sprawl will experience an orderly transition into New Urbanism. The convinced Doomer rejects this outright as an impossibility due to civil unrest.
External links
- Discussion of "Doomer" term
- Doomsters(sic) - A journal article discussing peak oil and "Doomsters"
- So Very Doomed - Real doomers caught in the act of dooming.
- Embracing the Doom:What kind of Doomer am I? Defining and differentiating doomer kind