Cliodynamics - AbsoluteAstronomy.com

Cliodynamics is a new multidisciplinary area of research focused at mathematical model

Mathematical model

A mathematical model is a description of a system using mathematical concepts and language. The process of developing a mathematical model is termed mathematical modeling. Mathematical models are used not only in the natural sciences and engineering disciplines A mathematical model is a...

ing of historical dynamics.

Origins

The term was originally coined by Peter Turchin

Peter Turchin

Peter Turchin is a Russian-American scientist, specializing in population biology and "cliodynamics" — mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies.- Biography :...

in 2003, and can be traced to the work of such figures as Ibn Khaldun

Ibn Khaldun

Ibn Khaldūn or Ibn Khaldoun was an Arab Tunisian historiographer and historian who is often viewed as one of the forerunners of modern historiography, sociology and economics...

, Jack Goldstone

Jack Goldstone

Jack A. Goldstone is an American sociologist and political scientist, specializing in studies of social movements, revolutions, and international politics. According to Peter Turchin , he made a significant contribution to the development of cliodynamics...

, Randall Collins

Randall Collins

Randall Collins, Ph.D. is the Dorothy Swaine Thomas Professor in Sociology at the University of Pennsylvania and a member of the Advisory Editors Council of the Social Evolution & History Journal. He is considered to be one of the leading non-Marxist conflict theorists in the United...

, Peter Turchin

Peter Turchin

, John Komlos

John Komlos

John Komlos is an American economic historian at the University of Munich where he is professor of economics and chair of economic history. He currently serves as a Visiting Professor of Economics at Duke University...

, Sergey Nefedov and Andrey Korotayev

Andrey Korotayev

Andrey Korotayev is an anthropologist, economic historian, and sociologist, with major contributions to world-systems theory, cross-cultural studies, Near Eastern history, and mathematical modeling of social and economic macrodynamics.Education and career=Born in Moscow, Andrey Korotayev attended...

Mathematical modeling of historical dynamics

Many historical processes are dynamic (a dynamic process is one that changes with time). Population

Population

A population is all the organisms that both belong to the same group or species and live in the same geographical area. The area that is used to define a sexual population is such that inter-breeding is possible between any pair within the area and more probable than cross-breeding with individuals...

s increase and decline, economies expand and contract, while states grow and collapse. A very common approach, which has proved its worth in innumerable applications (particularly, but not exclusively, in the natural sciences), consists of taking a holistic phenomenon and mentally splitting it up into separate parts that are assumed to interact with each other. This is the dynamical systems approach, because the whole phenomenon is represented as a system

System

System is a set of interacting or interdependent components forming an integrated whole....

consisting of several interacting elements (or subsystems). In the dynamical systems approach, one must describe mathematically how different subsystems interact with each other. This mathematical description is the model of the system, and one can use a variety of methods to study the dynamics predicted by the model, as well as attempt to test the model by comparing its predictions with the observed dynamics

Dynamics

Dynamics may refer to:-Physics and engineering:* Dynamics , the time evolution of physical processes** Aerodynamics, the study of gases in motion...

. This is the approach that the cliodynamics suggests to apply to the study of historical dynamics.

Isaac Asimov

Isaac Asimov

Isaac Asimov was an American author and professor of biochemistry at Boston University, best known for his works of science fiction and for his popular science books. Asimov was one of the most prolific writers of all time, having written or edited more than 500 books and an estimated 90,000...

employed a fictional version of this discipline, called psychohistory, as a major plot device in his Foundation series of science fiction novels.

Cliodynamics practitioners attempt to come to with mathematical models of history to explain “big history” – things like the rise of empires, social discontent, civil wars, and state collapse.

Achievements

At the moment in this realm the main achievements have been made with respect to the mathematical modeling of long-term ("secular") cycles

Social cycle theory

Social cycle theories are among the earliest social theories in sociology. Unlike the theory of social evolutionism, which views the evolution of society and human history as progressing in some new, unique direction, sociological cycle theory argues that events and stages of society and history...

of sociodemographic dynamics , the mathematical modeling of the extreme long-term ("millennial") trends of the World System dynamics, and demographic-structural models of the Modern Age revolutions, including the Arab revolutions of 2011.

Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History

Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History is a peer-reviewed web-based (free-access) journal that publishes both empirical and modeling articles. Editors are particularly interested in articles that combine model development with empirical tests. The journal also seeks to publish databases, methodological articles, and critical commentaries on articles published in the journal and on general issues in theoretical and quantitative history.

The first issue of Cliodynamics: the Journal was published in November 2010.

External links

The source of this article is wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. The text of this article is licensed under the GFDL.