The ACEGES is a decision-support tool for energy policy

Energy policy

Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity has decided to address issues of energy development including energy production, distribution and consumption...

 by means of controlled computational experiments. The ACEGES tool is designed to be the foundation for large custom-purpose simulations of the global energy system. The ACEGES methodological framework, developed by Voudouris (2011) by extending Voudouris (2010), is based on the agent-based computational economics

Agent-Based Computational Economics

Agent-based computational economics is the major aspect of computational economics that studies economic processes, including whole economies, as dynamic systems of interacting agents. As such, it falls in paradigm of complex adaptive systems...

 (ACE) paradigm. ACE is the computational study of economies modeled as evolving systems of autonomous interacting agents.

The ACEGES tool is written in Java

Java (programming language)

Java is a programming language originally developed by James Gosling at Sun Microsystems and released in 1995 as a core component of Sun Microsystems' Java platform. The language derives much of its syntax from C and C++ but has a simpler object model and fewer low-level facilities...

 and runs on Windows, Mac OS

Mac OS

Mac OS is a series of graphical user interface-based operating systems developed by Apple Inc. for their Macintosh line of computer systems. The Macintosh user experience is credited with popularizing the graphical user interface...

 and Linux

Linux

Linux is a Unix-like computer operating system assembled under the model of free and open source software development and distribution. The defining component of any Linux system is the Linux kernel, an operating system kernel first released October 5, 1991 by Linus Torvalds...

 platforms. The ACEGES tool is based on:

• The MASON library - A discrete-event multiagent simulation library
• The ECJ - An evolutionary computation toolkit
• The R
  R (programming language)
  R is a programming language and software environment for statistical computing and graphics. The R language is widely used among statisticians for developing statistical software, and R is widely used for statistical software development and data analysis....
  
   Project for statistical computing
• The GAMLSS framework

GAMLSS, developed by Rigby and Stasinopoulos (2005), is the back-end statistical model for the regression-based rules of the agents in the ACEGES model and R is the engine for the statistical computing used by the ACEGES decision-support tool. In specific cases, the ACEGES tool also uses the Mathematica

Mathematica

Mathematica is a computational software program used in scientific, engineering, and mathematical fields and other areas of technical computing...

 kernel

Kernel

-Computer science:* Kernel , the central component of most operating systems** The Linux kernel, from GNU/Linux operating systems** The Windows 9x kernel, used in Windows 95, 98 and ME...

. The ACEGES model is based upon the work of Hallock et. al. (2004), Wood et. al. (2004) and Campbell (1997).

History

The first version of the ACEGES decision-support tool was written in 2010 by Dr. Vlasios Voudouris. The ACEGES models energy demand and supply of 216 countries. The ACEGES tool was the main output of the ACEGES Project at the Centre for International Business and Sustainability (CIBS) at LondonMet Business School (LMBS). The overall aim of the ACEGES project was to develop, test and disseminate an agent-based computational laboratory for the systematic experimental study of the global energy system through the mechanism of Energy Scenarios. In particular, the intention was to show how the ACEGES framework and prototype can be used to help leaders in government, business and civil society better understand the challenging outlook for energy through controlled computational experiments.

Demonstrations

The ACEGES tool has been used, for example, to test the peak oil

Peak oil

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, projected reserves and the combined production rate of a field...

 theory and to develop plausible scenarios

Scenario analysis

Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes . Thus, the scenario analysis, which is a main method of projections, does not try to show one exact picture of the future. Instead, it presents consciously several alternative future...

 of conventional oil production by means of demonstration at:

• 4th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics, University of London
  University of London
  -20th century:Shortly after 6 Burlington Gardens was vacated, the University went through a period of rapid expansion. Bedford College, Royal Holloway and the London School of Economics all joined in 1900, Regent's Park College, which had affiliated in 1841 became an official divinity school of the...
  
   & London School of Economics
  London School of Economics
  The London School of Economics and Political Science is a public research university specialised in the social sciences located in London, United Kingdom, and a constituent college of the federal University of London...
  
  , 2010
• 16th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance, Society for Computational Economics, 2010
• Università Bocconi, 2010
• UCL Energy Institute, 2011
• Moscow State University, 2011
• UK Energy Day: Sustainable Supply - An energy day within the EU Sustainable Energy Europe Week supported by the Intelligent Energy Europe, 2011
• Energy and Climate Change Select committee (Westminster system), UK Parliament- The UK’s Energy Supply: security or independence? Link, 2011

Details about the ACEGES decision-support tool (including supporting documentation) are available from www.aceges.org.

External links

• The ACEGES Java Applet - An on-line, interactive version of the ACEGES decision-support tool
• The ACEGES presentation