Victor Zarnowitz
Encyclopedia
Victor Zarnowitz was a leading scholar on business cycle
s, indicators, and forecast evaluation. Dr. Zarnowitz was Senior Fellow and Economic Counselor to The Conference Board
. He was Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, and Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER).
In 1939, he fled Poland to escape the Nazi invasion, but was imprisoned by the Soviet Russians and worked at a labor camp in Siberia. Dr. Zarnowitz earned his Ph.D. in economics (summa cum laude) at the University of Heidelberg in Germany in 1951. He came to the United States in 1952. In 1959 he moved to Chicago and became a professor at the University of Chicago.
He was a Fellow of the National Association of Business Economists, Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Honorary Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, and Honorary Member of the Center for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET). In 2001, he received the William F. Butler Memorial Award from the New York Association for Business Economists. His numerous papers and books include An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts (1967), The Business Cycle Today (1972), Orders, Production, and Investment (1973), and Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting (1992). His most recent papers are "Has the Business Cycle Been Abolished?" (1998), "Theory and History Behind Business Cycles" (1999), and "The Old and the New in U.S. Economic Expansion" (2000).
He was notable as a researcher on the performance of economic forecasting, and he concluded that economic forecasters have little success in predicting business cycle turning points. He established that planners are better off using the average of forecasts, rather than relying on any individual forecast. This has become a common practice on the part of governments in the setting of their budgets.
Zarnowitz remained an active economist throughout his life. In 1999 he joined The Conference Board
, the organization which publishes the Index of Leading Indicators
and the Consumer Confidence Index. He continued working five-day weeks until the day before he died, according to The Conference Board, and he was also an active member of the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His final decision with the committee was the determination that the Late-2000s recession had begun in December 2007.
The historical pattern in which deep recessions are usually followed by steep recoveries is known by economists as "the Zarnowitz rule".
Zarnowitz, Victor (1992), Business cycles: theory, history, indicators and forecasting. The university of Chicago press. In Studies in business cycles. vol 27. ISBN 0-226-97890-7
Zarnowitz, Victor (2008), 'Fleeing the Nazis, Surviving the Gulag, and Arriving in the Free World: My Life and Times,' Praeger, ISBN 978-0313357787
Business cycle
The term business cycle refers to economy-wide fluctuations in production or economic activity over several months or years...
s, indicators, and forecast evaluation. Dr. Zarnowitz was Senior Fellow and Economic Counselor to The Conference Board
The Conference Board
The Conference Board, Inc. is a non-profit, non-partisan business membership and research group. It has approximately 12,000 executives in its network, from 1200 corporations in 60 countries. It holds conferences, convenes executives, conducts economic and business management research, and is seen...
. He was Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, and Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research
National Bureau of Economic Research
The National Bureau of Economic Research is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community." The NBER is well known for providing start and end...
(NBER).
In 1939, he fled Poland to escape the Nazi invasion, but was imprisoned by the Soviet Russians and worked at a labor camp in Siberia. Dr. Zarnowitz earned his Ph.D. in economics (summa cum laude) at the University of Heidelberg in Germany in 1951. He came to the United States in 1952. In 1959 he moved to Chicago and became a professor at the University of Chicago.
He was a Fellow of the National Association of Business Economists, Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Honorary Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, and Honorary Member of the Center for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET). In 2001, he received the William F. Butler Memorial Award from the New York Association for Business Economists. His numerous papers and books include An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts (1967), The Business Cycle Today (1972), Orders, Production, and Investment (1973), and Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting (1992). His most recent papers are "Has the Business Cycle Been Abolished?" (1998), "Theory and History Behind Business Cycles" (1999), and "The Old and the New in U.S. Economic Expansion" (2000).
He was notable as a researcher on the performance of economic forecasting, and he concluded that economic forecasters have little success in predicting business cycle turning points. He established that planners are better off using the average of forecasts, rather than relying on any individual forecast. This has become a common practice on the part of governments in the setting of their budgets.
Zarnowitz remained an active economist throughout his life. In 1999 he joined The Conference Board
The Conference Board
The Conference Board, Inc. is a non-profit, non-partisan business membership and research group. It has approximately 12,000 executives in its network, from 1200 corporations in 60 countries. It holds conferences, convenes executives, conducts economic and business management research, and is seen...
, the organization which publishes the Index of Leading Indicators
Index of Leading Indicators
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is an American economic leading indicator intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization, which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key variables. These...
and the Consumer Confidence Index. He continued working five-day weeks until the day before he died, according to The Conference Board, and he was also an active member of the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His final decision with the committee was the determination that the Late-2000s recession had begun in December 2007.
The historical pattern in which deep recessions are usually followed by steep recoveries is known by economists as "the Zarnowitz rule".
Publications
Zarnowitz, Victor (1985), 'Recent work on business cycles in historical perspective: a review of theories and evidence'. Journal of Economic Literature 23 (2), pp. 523–80.Zarnowitz, Victor (1992), Business cycles: theory, history, indicators and forecasting. The university of Chicago press. In Studies in business cycles. vol 27. ISBN 0-226-97890-7
Zarnowitz, Victor (2008), 'Fleeing the Nazis, Surviving the Gulag, and Arriving in the Free World: My Life and Times,' Praeger, ISBN 978-0313357787